Though I understand the temptation to use PER to measure efficiency (it has the word ''efficiency'' right there in it
), I don't think that's actually a good idea. PER is more of a measure of production; that's why someone like Westbrook can go out there and secure a PER of 25+ while shooting significantly below league average TS%. It's cause it's measuring his production in terms of box score stats, more than anything else.
If you look at Jrue's specific efficiencies, what you find is that his TS% generally sits at, or a little above, league average. Last year it was 55%, which is dead on average, and the year before it was 57%, which is a little above. This year it's at 45.5% so far: so it's extremely unlikely that this will continue.
Since TS% is derived from all shots taken, including FTs, Jrue's declining 3pt abilities has contributed to his average TS numbers. If you look at Jrue's shooting
exclusively at the rim, you find that his numbers are actually pretty great every year. Jrue finished shots at the rim at 66%, and at 67% the year before that, which is pretty good. That's top tier for a guard: you only really bust the 70% threshold when you're a big putting back dunks almost exclusively. Hell, even
this yeah, Jrue's shooting 66% at the rim.
So what's the problem? The answer is shot distribution. Last season, Jrue took 32% of his shots
directly at the rim, within 3 feet of the basket. This year, so far, that number is down to barely 20%. Meanwhile, the percentage of shots he's taking from that awkward area just outside of the restricted area, from 3-10 feet, has soared from 19% last year, to 34.5% so far this year. And he's shooting 25% from there right now, instead of last year's 44%. Last year, Jrue shot 47.5% from the 11-16 feet range, so far this year he's hit 0%.
All of these drops are highly unusual, and extremely drastic. Jrue is usually
much more efficient from these areas. It's close to unbelievable to think he will continue being this bad from those areas, areas where he is usually extremely effective. He's taking far fewer shots at the rim than normal, and he's just not been able to finish anything from outside of the restricted area.
For me, these look like the kind of issues that will clear up once Jrue gets into a rhythm, and is given some degree of consistency with rotations: so far, he's played with only
one 5-man lineup for more than 20 minutes total. He's had at least 5 minutes with 10 different 5 man line-ups, in only 4 games played. He's going to struggle until Gentry gives them some consistency and his role evens out, at which point he'll have some breakout game where he scores 30 on ridiculous efficiency, and then go back to normal.
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
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