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Thread: Roster Set (?)

  1. #51
    I mean, I don't really think Frank will take minutes from anyone either...he'd probably be my pick for the other inactive spot, assuming everyone is healthy. I agree that he will not be as effective as Hayes in defending at the rim. It wasn't just fouls in SL though, Hayes was a disaster vs the pick and roll--he's only played for two years, he is in no way ready for NBA level defensive responsibilities. As for possession terminator, I wouldn't go that far either...he's not much of a rebounder and his blocked shots seem to go out of bounds (very limited sample obv). Lol, guess Frank's a better shooter in my mind than on paper, I even went and looked up his catch and shoot stats and they're not any better. My bad! Even without stats though, sure, I'd rather Jrue shoot it too.

    I mentioned Ingram/Melli as the 4 part of our 4/5 rotation (though I'd think Melli could match up against a stretch 5)...we've got 96 available minutes between the two spots and you'd have to figure 65-70 are spoken for between Zion and Favors. What's Melli going to play, 20? A few minutes here of small ball with Ingram as the 4, a few minutes there of Okafor banging down low...there's not really a lot of time for Hayes. If the team was going nowhere, sure, let him run around out there for 15 minutes a night and live with the mistakes. On the other hand, if you're Gentry, and you have one more year left on your contract, you're trying as hard as you can to make the playoffs. Let him make those mistakes in the G League.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by ml wave View Post
    Our 4/5 rotation has Favors, Zion, Melli, Ingram, Okafor...we're not really thin there.
    I don’t think Ingram is part of the 4/5 rotation. He is a wing.

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    The issue is that I think we get into a big of a mix-up when it comes to bigs. Some people, when they talk about bigs, seem to just mean anyone taller than 6'8. That's a big. Regardless of how they play, or their role on the floor. For me, when I talk about bigs, I'm referring to guys who are generally (yes) tall, but whose primary roles are more as play terminators, glass cleaners, possession enders, and someone who will spend time defending the same. I don't really see someone like Melli as competing for minutes with Favors or Okafor, for example, because his skillset is so different and the role he will be asked to play will be so different too: he's much more likely to be competing for minutes with Miller, for example.

    So when I talk about us being thin at the 5, what I mean is, we're thin when it comes to legitimate 5s, whose primary focus is terminating plays, defending other bigs, etc. We only really have Favors and Okafor in that role. Melli, as I said, seems to me more like he'll be competing for minutes at that 3 and 4 spot rather than 5, and similarly, Ingram will be spending the vast majority of his minutes at the 3. If we ever get into a position where Ingram is being asked to commit serious minutes to guarding a legitimate 5, we're probably in a little bit of trouble because he weighs about as much as Rudy Gobert's left foot.

    I wouldn't say that Frank's draft position is irrelevant. It would be, if he had made it so: for example, Draymond Green's draft position is now irrelevant because he's played far past it. Frank still plays like a second rounder, and that's hard to avoid. Frank's not even that great of a shooter, to be honest: he shot 31.4% from three last year. He shot pretty well from the corners at around 42%, but those made up less than 29% of his three point attempts because he much prefers to play with the ball in his hands, which is not a good look. A lot of the time people will refer to the final ten games of the year to show that he really can shoot, because he had games during that time where he went 3/4 from deep, for example, but across those final 10 games he still only shot 33% from behind the arc, and the lack of playmaking was even more painful there: he was getting 33 minutes a game and average 2 assists. That's dreadful. Honestly, I would much rather have Jrue (career 35.5% 3pt shooter, shot 36.5% after ASB last season) taking a three than Jackson, unquestionably.

    It's true that Hayes got subbed off the floor for a defensive possession in Summer League. That's less because he can't play defense though, and more because they couldn't risk the foul, which he is liable to give up: he is, of course, still learning. Frank, on the other hand, doesn't have the same excuse that Hayes does. He's not a rookie, he's not 19, he hasn't been playing basketball for two years. Frank's 2 years older, and has two years of NBA experience (only one year playing, obviously), and he turned up a -15 net rating last season for us. His DBPM was -2.8, and his DRPM was -2.54. That means Frank's DRPM ranked 95th out of the 99 players at point guard last season.

    Players shot 18% better than their averages at the rim when Frank was their primary defender. 4.7% better than their averages from 3. 9.5% from midrange. He was bad. Getting guarded by Frank was like a cheat code: it wasn't pretty. Hayes wouldn't be a perfect defender, he would definitely make mistakes, I'm not denying that, but there's no way he gives up 18% BETTER at the rim. That's just not happening. He's a 7'0'' with good rim protection instincts. He can swipe at the ball sometimes, sure, but if you compare him to (say) Mitchell Robinson, another foul-prone 7'0'' who played last season and made a lot of mistakes, Robinson held opponents to -9.5% on their averages. Of course, Mitchell was a fantastic rim protector and maybe Hayes wouldn't be that good, but even if he only hit at half of Mitchell's rim protection abilities, he would still be a massive improvement on Frank. Beyond that, Frank was consistently bad: Hayes, even in Summer League, showed that while he was prone to mistakes at times, he also had very impressive flashes of his defensive potential far beyond what Frank has ever shown, including multiple occasions where he was switched onto guards and had the foot speed to track them from the perimeter all the way into the paint, without getting shaken loose or beaten.

    And remember, even if Frank did serve a good role as a 3pt spot up guy (which I don't think he would), who is he taking minutes from at the guard spots? Not Ball, Jrue, Redick, or Moore, that's for sure. So is he taking them from NAW, who has shown a much more controlled and disciplined game? Personally, and this is just my judgement, I think that would be a bad move. Hayes, on the other hand, doesn't have to take minutes from anyone. There's no logjam at center. The only people really ahead of him are Okafor and Favors, and occasional spot minutes for Zion. It's far more likely that, at the end of rotation, there's 5-10 minutes for Hayes than it is for there to be 10 minutes for Frank.

    i think majority of the posters on the board look at players who play the 4 and 5 as bigs......i now understand why you was confusing me when i was calling them bigs from your definition now...

    what i think you are not focusing on is who our coach is when it comes to players at the 5.......gentry will sit legitimate 5s and play players like melli at the 5 over okafor i believe......favors can play against legitimate 5 as you call them and smaller 5s.....okafor plays against the bigger 5s in the league so i think we are good there because last season we only had okafor as the legitimate big and gentry used niko at the 5 last season and in the playoffs which make me believe that melli will get mins at the 5 over okafor.......

    i think zion,,melli and favors will get majority of the mins at the 4/5 and okafor will get them against the bigger 5s........gentry ran a 3 man rotation last season at the 4/5 until a injury hit or a back to back game...

  4. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by 6warddude View Post
    i think majority of the posters on the board look at players who play the 4 and 5 as bigs......i now understand why you was confusing me when i was calling them bigs from your definition now...

    what i think you are not focusing on is who our coach is when it comes to players at the 5.......gentry will sit legitimate 5s and play players like melli at the 5 over okafor i believe......favors can play against legitimate 5 as you call them and smaller 5s.....okafor plays against the bigger 5s in the league so i think we are good there because last season we only had okafor as the legitimate big and gentry used niko at the 5 last season and in the playoffs which make me believe that melli will get mins at the 5 over okafor.......

    i think zion,,melli and favors will get majority of the mins at the 4/5 and okafor will get them against the bigger 5s........gentry ran a 3 man rotation last season at the 4/5 until a injury hit or a back to back game...
    I have to believe that Gentry is not stupid enough to play Melli heavy minutes at the 5. Maybe that's blindness on my part, but I cannot see a 6'9 stretch who played pretty much exclusively at the 3 and 4 in Euroleague being made into an NBA 5 with any regularly. I accept that I could be totally wrong there, but I just have to believe Gentry will not do that. For my sanity.
    Basketball.

  5. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by ml wave View Post
    I mean, I don't really think Frank will take minutes from anyone either...he'd probably be my pick for the other inactive spot, assuming everyone is healthy. I agree that he will not be as effective as Hayes in defending at the rim. It wasn't just fouls in SL though, Hayes was a disaster vs the pick and roll--he's only played for two years, he is in no way ready for NBA level defensive responsibilities. As for possession terminator, I wouldn't go that far either...he's not much of a rebounder and his blocked shots seem to go out of bounds (very limited sample obv). Lol, guess Frank's a better shooter in my mind than on paper, I even went and looked up his catch and shoot stats and they're not any better. My bad! Even without stats though, sure, I'd rather Jrue shoot it too.
    Hayes was pretty bad in the pick and roll, sure, but he was also very good in more free flowing defenses, in transition, and when there was a 1-v-1 switch situation that saw him parked on a guard. It's true that he has to improve his pick and roll defense, there's no way I'd deny that, but I think he's shown all the signs of being a fast learner and he has all of the physical tools and the IQ required to do it. I feel like his woes in the PnR come less out of him being incapable, and more out of him being ignorant. That's the kind of thing that can be fixed, and will be fixed as the season goes on.

    Gentry doesn't seem to mind sacrificing PnR defense at times either, especially when he's putting out lineups which run even faster than usual: he played Diallo fairly consistent minutes all through last year, and Diallo was an egregious PnR defender. His other attributes were enough of a trade-off for Gentry to use him at times. Hayes has other attributes that are worth the downsides in that regard as well, and his learning curve has been quick. Like you said, he's only really played 2 years, and he's already superior to Diallo in a wide variety of ways. Being given a full year in an NBA coaching environment, going against guys like Favors in practise regularly, and getting spot minutes against NBA backups will do wonders for his experience level and a lot of those issues we see in his game will (I believe) be ironed out relatively quickly.

    That's not to say he'll be starting calibre by the end of the year, I don't think that at all, and obviously there will be some matchups where he's just not able to get on the floor (I'm thinking particularly early in the year, and against teams with like Philly with their mammoth lineups). But I think he'll be able to show us enough to justify giving him those 8-12 minutes a night against backups by January at least.

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    I have to believe that Gentry is not stupid enough to play Melli heavy minutes at the 5. Maybe that's blindness on my part, but I cannot see a 6'9 stretch who played pretty much exclusively at the 3 and 4 in Euroleague being made into an NBA 5 with any regularly. I accept that I could be totally wrong there, but I just have to believe Gentry will not do that. For my sanity.

    lol....you know gentry go with lineups that make us say wth lol.....but it could happen if zion,,favors,,melli and okafor are the only players at the 4/5....

    now reading this post of yours about melli,,i now see a reason that hayes might be active....

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post


    Okay, how's this:

    ''Zion, as many of us on this forum have discussed multiple times, using multiple sources of evidence including both photographs and video, seems to be several inches taller than his listed 6'6'', and somewhere around 6'9'' seems to be generally agreed upon by much of the Pelicans fanbase, which would be neither surprising nor unexpected given that his 6'6'' measurement was taken some considerable time ago and people generally grow somewhat in their late teenage years.

    Given that, and his strength, it seems fairly evident to me, and to many people on this board and elsewhere, that Zion will be perfectly able to play at least some minutes at the 5 in the style of a Draymond Green small-ball centre, a concept which I have as of yet seen pretty much nobody question. There remains, as always, a slim possibility that there are those who would question it, in much the same way that there are those who don't believe Jokic to be a top 15 player, but those people are such a minority that, for the sake of both brevity and the conventional rhetorical usage of set lexical phrases such as ''there's no question'' (also ''there's no doubt'', for example), they aren't really worth including because it would both distract from the point I'm making as well as unnecessarily extend the length of this relatively simple statement to absurd proportions for no reason other than to satisfy the pedantry of any contrarians who may or may not wish to cherry pick this incredibly small and relatively innocuous section of a much longer point for the sake of smug self-satisfaction.''

    Prefer that?
    Draymond Green is a once in a generation type of defensive player. A lot of what he does defensively doesn't show up on any stat sheet. He's as important to the Warriors defensively as Steph or KD are (were) offensively. He's brilliant, understanding opposing offenses, strengths, weaknesses, spacing, angles and timing. He's constantly communicating and making his teammates better defenders. He also has the ability to defend, contest and get guys off their spots without fouling. His effort and motor are constant and his instincts can't be taught. His understanding of the game and leadership defensively and are up there with some of the great defenders of all time, allowing him to hold everyone accountable.

    On paper, Zion's build and athleticism give him unparalleled potential, but at this point it's just that, potential. He has shown the ability to use that athleticism and girth to make some outstanding defensive plays, but for every blocked shot or steal, there is a gamble that didn't pay off and won't run on a highlight reel. Comparing him to Draymond right now is not doing him any favors. You're setting him up to disappoint. Zion has as far to go defensively to catch Draymond Green as he does offensively to catch any of the best offensive players in the game.

  8. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by socbe7 View Post
    Draymond Green is a once in a generation type of defensive player. A lot of what he does defensively doesn't show up on any stat sheet. He's as important to the Warriors defensively as Steph or KD are (were) offensively. He's brilliant, understanding opposing offenses, strengths, weaknesses, spacing, angles and timing. He's constantly communicating and making his teammates better defenders. He also has the ability to defend, contest and get guys off their spots without fouling. His effort and motor are constant and his instincts can't be taught. His understanding of the game and leadership defensively and are up there with some of the great defenders of all time, allowing him to hold everyone accountable.

    On paper, Zion's build and athleticism give him unparalleled potential, but at this point it's just that, potential. He has shown the ability to use that athleticism and girth to make some outstanding defensive plays, but for every blocked shot or steal, there is a gamble that didn't pay off and won't run on a highlight reel. Comparing him to Draymond right now is not doing him any favors. You're setting him up to disappoint. Zion has as far to go defensively to catch Draymond Green as he does offensively to catch any of the best offensive players in the game.
    Yes, and if you re-read my post, you won't find anywhere where I said that Draymond Green wasn't a once in a generation defensive player, or that Zion would be identical to him. I said that Zion could be used at the 5 ''in the style of a Draymond Green small-ball centre''. Not identical to how Draymond is used. Not that he would be as effective as Draymond. Just that he could be used at the 5, in the style of someone like Draymond: that is, playing the 5 despite a lack of size which is compensated for by high level IQ and physical strength. Again, nowhere did I say ''we will use Zion at the 5 and he will be identical to Draymond Green''. I said he will get minutes at the 5, in the style of Green, which I then followed up with the clarification of ''small-ball centre''.

    I'm perfectly happy to mention that Zion's potential is just potential. I've said before that if he reaches his full potential and puts all the work in, he's got the possibility of being one of the greatest ever, but that requires him to reach that ceiling and to put that work in, which not everyone does. I get that. I've also said elsewhere on the forum that I'm expecting him to start this season relatively slowly and not really come into his true rookie form until around December due to adjustments to the NBA, so people shouldn't expect explosions on day one. Rookies have adjustments periods, and who knows what he'll look like after that adjustment period? Speculation right now is just that, speculation, but it's the off-season. Speculating is fine. It hurts nobody, it's fun, and hell, it can even be pretty useful sometimes.

    Draymond Green makes defensive mistakes as well, by the way. Saying that for every highlight block Zion gets is a gamble that doesn't pay off is true, but it's also true for Green, who makes errors fairly regularly. Every player does, no matter how good. There's never been a player I've watched play 30+ minutes and not seen make at least some error somewhere. I'd also highlight (although I think you know this already) that defense is far more than blocks and steals, and if you're measuring Zion's defense purely by those factors you're probably missing a lot of the more important stuff.

    Listen, I get if you disagree with me. That's obviously fine, people have disagreements all the time, and since I'm behind a lot of heterodox thinking myself, I don't really care if you disagree with me: in fact, I welcome the debate. But if we're going to have a discussion can it please be about something I've actually said, rather than you just taking the most uncharitable possible reading of any given statement, divorcing it from context, and tilting at the resulting windmill? That would be real cool.
    Last edited by Pelicanidae; 07-19-2019 at 08:57 PM.

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