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Thread: How do y’all think the PELS will win games?

  1. #26
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    Shots from at least 15 feet away went in 3.4 percent less frequently when Ingram was there to contest, and the effect was even more pronounced on three-pointers, where opponents shot just 30.7 percent, 4.7 points lower than the 35.4 average. For reference, Kawhi Leonard lowered the effectiveness of these same shots by 2.1 and 3.1 respectively, and he is quite good!
    https://www.thebirdwrites.com/2019/6...o-holiday-zion

    Brandon Ingram 41.6 30.7 DFG% Second row 3PT percentage..
    Klay 43.8 37.9
    Kawhi 42.7 33.3
    Draymon Green 45.4 40.4
    Paul George 44.9 51.5

    Brandon Ingram is clearly an above average on ball defender. Off ball he needs to improve his awareness. To say he's a trash defender is absurd.

  2. #27
    Off ball I blame the Lakers coaching last year. People overplay the Pelicans "dysfunction" last year, but the Lakers were flaming trash top-to-bottom.

    And those flames aren't all the way out yet.

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by luckyman View Post
    Off ball I blame the Lakers coaching last year. People overplay the Pelicans "dysfunction" last year, but the Lakers were flaming trash top-to-bottom.

    And those flames aren't all the way out yet.
    Agreed, the numbers I posted make it clear that guys don't shoot as well when Ingram guards them. As a Lakers fan (new Pels fan) I can attest to this.

  4. #29
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    Also Jimmy Butler shoots no where near 100% against Ingram. smh

  5. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Nichols View Post
    Also Jimmy Butler shoots no where near 100% against Ingram. smh
    You should probably tell the NBA stats page that. According to the NBA's official data, Ingram was the primary defender on Butler for 16 possessions last season. Butler's FG% on those possessions was 100%, a clean 2 of 2 from the floor. Butler didn't take many shots on those possessions, choosing to pass, and as a result his teams produced 18 points on those 16 possessions. Obviously you could argue that Butler only shot twice in those 16 possessions BECAUSE Ingram denied him shots, which may be true. You'd have to specifically watch those possessions back, unless you have a perfect memory.
    Basketball.

  6. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    You should probably tell the NBA stats page that. According to the NBA's official data, Ingram was the primary defender on Butler for 16 possessions last season. Butler's FG% on those possessions was 100%, a clean 2 of 2 from the floor. Butler didn't take many shots on those possessions, choosing to pass, and as a result his teams produced 18 points on those 16 possessions. Obviously you could argue that Butler only shot twice in those 16 possessions BECAUSE Ingram denied him shots, which may be true. You'd have to specifically watch those possessions back, unless you have a perfect memory.
    You clearly tried to paint a narrative that Butler abuses Ingram on offense. 2 of 2 is meaningless. You strike me as a well informed poster here. But what you attempted to do just now is dishonest.

    I personally watched their matchups. Ingram made it difficult for him, which is why he elected to not press his own offense against him.

  7. #32
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    Also you don't need a perfect memory.. ask any Laker fans on this board. Jimmy isn't as aggressive when Ingram is on him. Same could be said of Paul George.

    Last two games against Jimmy Ingram outscored him. Second to last game he scored 36 points on 16 for 20.. That's a 80% FG percentage.
    Last edited by Nichols; 07-10-2019 at 05:55 PM.

  8. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Nichols View Post
    You clearly tried to paint a narrative that Butler abuses Ingram on offense. 2 of 2 is meaningless. You strike me as a well informed poster here. But what you attempted to do just now is dishonest.

    I personally watched their matchups. Ingram made it difficult for him, which is why he elected to not press his own offense against him.
    Not really, I pointed out that Butler shot 100% against Ingram (which is true) and that when he was assigned to guard Butler, the numbers that got put on the Lakers were bad. 18 points over 16 possessions is 1.12ppp, which is not good. Now, I'm totally happy to admit that, like I said, you could argue that Butler only shot twice in those possessions because Ingram denied him shots. That could easily be the case. I literally said that verbatim in the post you're responding to. But unless you have absolutely crystal memory of every possession played in every game, you'd have to watch the games back to know whether that was the case, or whether it was a case of the Philly offense just slicing the Lakers up overall.

    Saying that 2/2 is meaningless is kind of weird because if you actually look up Ingram's defensive stats, you find that he didn't actually defend any individual for huge numbers of shots per game at all. The most of anyone is Justin Holiday, who he guarded for 11 FGAs in one game. That's the most he guarded any single player in a single game. Justin Holiday shot 54% on those shots.

    Other bad FG% that Ingram gave up when he defended them: 53.5% on 7.5 FGAs per game guarding Evan Fournier, 50% on 5.0 FGAs per game guarding Avery Bradley, 60% on 5.0 FGAs per game guarding Ben Simmons, 57.1% on 5.7 FGAs per game guarding Iman Shumpert, 70% on 3.3 FGAs per game guarding Kevin Durant.

    On the other hand, there are plenty of individuals who he defended well: He held CJ McCollum to 42.1% on 6.3 FGAs per game, and as I mentioned in the original post, he did a real number on Paul George, holding him to only 12.5% on 4 FGAs per game (they only played 2 games against each other, so that's 12.5% on 8 total attempts, or 1 of 8 shooting).

    It's hard to get much larger sample sizes because Ingram simply didn't guard that many people for that many possessions. Instead, he guarded a ton of different people for only a handful of possessions each time.

  9. #34
    Also, just as a reminder, I am defending Ingram here. You wouldn't know because you are relatively new to the board, but I spent a long time absolutely eviscerating Ingram for his god awful, downright garbage disgusting advanced stats. I am trying to give him as much credit as possible here. I think he can be a strong on-ball defender 1 through 3. I'm just not going to pretend he's been some constant lock-down DPOY type.

  10. #35
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    "Saying that 2/2 is meaningless is kind of weird"

    Should I really have to explain why it doesn't make sense to build a narrative around 2/2? When you post that Butler literally shot 100% against Ingram you are creating a narrative that doesn't line up with reality.

    For those who've actually watched Ingram play there is no question about his on ball defense. I'll post this for you again..

    Brandon Ingram 41.6 30.7 DFG% Second row 3PT percentage..
    Klay 43.8 37.9
    Kawhi 42.7 33.3
    Draymon Green 45.4 40.4
    Paul George 44.9 51.5

    Those guys are elite defenders. Ingram's data falls right in line with theirs. There is no getting around it.

  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    Also, just as a reminder, I am defending Ingram here. You wouldn't know because you are relatively new to the board, but I spent a long time absolutely eviscerating Ingram for his god awful, downright garbage disgusting advanced stats. I am trying to give him as much credit as possible here. I think he can be a strong on-ball defender 1 through 3. I'm just not going to pretend he's been some constant lock-down DPOY type.
    I don't think anyone is saying he's a "constant lock-down DPOY type" at present.

    I've noticed in many forums that a position that is a minority one is made out to be representative of a perspective that is shared by many when it isn't. Then a counter argument is made against a view that hardly anyone adheres to.

    Ingram has work to do off ball, I will also agree that he has trouble on 4s and 5s because of his lack of strength.

    Something you touched on has validity, and it drove many in the Laker fanbase crazy.. Ingram was allowed to zone, basically play free safety on defense at times. I suppose it was a scheme implemented by the coaching staff to clog up passing lanes. Hopefully that's rectified in a new environment. I don't agree that he's likely to not ever be a lock down defender.

  12. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Nichols View Post
    "Saying that 2/2 is meaningless is kind of weird"

    Should I really have to explain why it doesn't make sense to build a narrative around 2/2? When you post that Butler literally shot 100% against Ingram you are creating a narrative that doesn't line up with reality.

    For those who've actually watched Ingram play there is no question about his on ball defense. I'll post this for you again..

    Brandon Ingram 41.6 30.7 DFG% Second row 3PT percentage..
    Klay 43.8 37.9
    Kawhi 42.7 33.3
    Draymon Green 45.4 40.4
    Paul George 44.9 51.5

    Those guys are elite defenders. Ingram's data falls right in line with theirs. There is no getting around it.
    You're missing the point where I literally concede that it's a small sample size. I just put 100%, which is entirely factually accurate. If someone else wants to read a ''narrative'' around that, then they can, but that's not my intention. If I wanted to say that Butler put like, 150/150 on Ingram, then I'd literally just say it. I've also pointed out that it's impossible to use BIG sample sizes for Ingram because he just DIDN'T GUARD ANYONE that much.

    It's also stupidly disingenuous to compare Ingram's defense there to guys like Klay and Kawhi.

    Who were the top 10 most guarded players for Ingram this year? Justin Holiday, Garrett Temple, Tyreke Evans, Avery Bradley, Andrew Wiggins, Chandler Hutchison, Evan Fournier, CJ McCollum, Royce O'Neale, Paul George. That is precisely 2 top tier scorers, in PG13 and McCollum, and I already noted multiple times that he defended those two names well.

    Who were the top 10 most guarded players for Kawhi? Trevor Ariza, Justin Holiday, Kyle Anderson, Kevin Durant, PJ Tucker, Iman Shumpert, Khris Middleton, Jimmy Butler, Aaron Gordon, Paul George. There's 4 All-NBA calibre players on that list, and Aaron Gordon is still very, very good.

    And Kawhi was guarding them far more frequently than Ingram was. Ingram guarded PG13, for example, for a total of 8 field goals all season: Kawhi guarded PG13 for 18, literally more than twice as many. Remember how Ingram didn't guard ANYONE for more than 11 FGA in a game? Kawhi guarded 5 different guys more than that, and one of them was Kevin Durant.

    I'm giving Ingram a lot of credit here. He's shown a lot of potential as a defender, especially on ball. He did a fantastic job on PG13 and McCollum, amongst other names. But can we please not put him in a list with 2x DPOY Kawhi Leonard, 1x DPOY Draymond Green, and DPOY finalist PG13 and pretend like he was on their level? That's just setting him up to look stupid.

  13. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Nichols View Post
    I don't think anyone is saying he's a "constant lock-down DPOY type" at present.

    I've noticed in many forums that a position that is a minority one is made out to be representative of a perspective that is shared by many when it isn't. Then a counter argument is made against a view that hardly anyone adheres to.

    Ingram has work to do off ball, I will also agree that he has trouble on 4s and 5s because of his lack of strength.

    Something you touched on has validity, and it drove many in the Laker fanbase crazy.. Ingram was allowed to zone, basically play free safety on defense at times. I suppose it was a scheme implemented by the coaching staff to clog up passing lanes. Hopefully that's rectified in a new environment. I don't agree that he's likely to not ever be a lock down defender.
    You literally put him in a list that contained 3 DPOY awards and another DPOY Finalist, and then said that ''his data falls right in line with theirs, there's no getting around it''. If that's not putting him in line with DPOY type defenders, I don't know what is.

    I hope Ingram can improve off ball, and I hope he works hard with the training staff that we have for our team to put on some of that weight that will help him guard up. He does have a lot of potential. I'm just saying that as much as he's shown great signs on-ball, he's also shown some troubling signs as well and that it's hard to set hard limits on sample sizes because, as you point out, he kinda played free safety on D a lot and that means he doesn't really HAVE big, solid defensive sample sizes. At least not many of them. Whenever you draw figures for him, they're going to be based on small samples, because he just didn't have any big samples against anyone.

    Yes, that means data is more likely to be flawed. But there's nothing we can do about that until Ingram starts actually sticking to a man and trying to lock them down more consistently.

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    You're missing the point where I literally concede that it's a small sample size. I just put 100%, which is entirely factually accurate. If someone else wants to read a ''narrative'' around that, then they can, but that's not my intention. If I wanted to say that Butler put like, 150/150 on Ingram, then I'd literally just say it. I've also pointed out that it's impossible to use BIG sample sizes for Ingram because he just DIDN'T GUARD ANYONE that much.

    It's also stupidly disingenuous to compare Ingram's defense there to guys like Klay and Kawhi.

    Who were the top 10 most guarded players for Ingram this year? Justin Holiday, Garrett Temple, Tyreke Evans, Avery Bradley, Andrew Wiggins, Chandler Hutchison, Evan Fournier, CJ McCollum, Royce O'Neale, Paul George. That is precisely 2 top tier scorers, in PG13 and McCollum, and I already noted multiple times that he defended those two names well.

    Who were the top 10 most guarded players for Kawhi? Trevor Ariza, Justin Holiday, Kyle Anderson, Kevin Durant, PJ Tucker, Iman Shumpert, Khris Middleton, Jimmy Butler, Aaron Gordon, Paul George. There's 4 All-NBA calibre players on that list, and Aaron Gordon is still very, very good.

    And Kawhi was guarding them far more frequently than Ingram was. Ingram guarded PG13, for example, for a total of 8 field goals all season: Kawhi guarded PG13 for 18, literally more than twice as many. Remember how Ingram didn't guard ANYONE for more than 11 FGA in a game? Kawhi guarded 5 different guys more than that, and one of them was Kevin Durant.

    I'm giving Ingram a lot of credit here. He's shown a lot of potential as a defender, especially on ball. He did a fantastic job on PG13 and McCollum, amongst other names. But can we please not put him in a list with 2x DPOY Kawhi Leonard, 1x DPOY Draymond Green, and DPOY finalist PG13 and pretend like he was on their level? That's just setting him up to look stupid.
    That data was posted to counter this narrative that Ingram is a trash defender, not to suggest he's just as good as the aforementioned. You won't find anyone that believes he is. I agree with the majority of what you're communicating.

  15. #40
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    I guarantee you.. Pelican fans will be more than pleased with Ingram's defense. We'll just have to let time be our arbiter on this matter. And in fairness to you, I know it wasn't you who said he was a trash defender.

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