Jazz
Clippers
Nuggets
Blazers
Lakers
Rockets
Pelicans
Warriors
Jazz, Clippers, Nuggets are locks even with this whole new phenomenon of load management. They are deep and can sustain winning even if a star misses games. The only thing would be their seeding.
Blazers maintain their positioning bc the additions of Bazemore and Whiteside. They are good additions and will add flexibility to their roster when they had none last year. Losing Harkless will be inconsequential bc Hood will be even better this year now that he knows he has a home. I see Whiteside having a resurgence to his game at the start of the year bc he will have the paint to operate more.
Lakers and Rockets are in the same boat. They are the key to whether these young teams sneak in. Both teams cannot afford one of their stars to miss significant time. I dont anticipate Harden carrying the Rockets against a significantly better West and NBA for that matter. If Bron or AD goes out for a while, their done. Margin of error is slimmer with both teams than we think.
Pelicans, Warriors and Spurs will battle for the last 3-4 spots if Lakers/Rockets falter. Pelicans have enough depth to endure the grind of a season and the only players to maybe give time off are Jrue/Redick, but the other will play in his stead. The most important players this year are Ingram and Lonzo. If they take another step in the maturation of their games, I can see this team as a 5th seed. Similar to the Nuggets last year.
Now, the Warriors are interesting bc they could end up anywhere from 4-9 seeding. I think they struggle early with scheme and integrating Dlo, but figure it out at some point. Just depends on how long it takes them. Also, if they are firmly in the race and believe Klay can come back to a comparable version of his old self quickly, i see them moving Dlo for frontcourt/wing help. They could turn Dlo into a couple of good pieces and then make a more legitimate run in the playoffs.
Kings are on the cusp but Im not sold on them yet and Mavs need more to compete. Doncic/Porzingas is not enough to carry a team.