Just want to bring back up the fact that...

[tacosman]

I think you need to cool your jets with regards to making points based on betting odds. I think this is the second or third time you've made an argument to me that basically boils down to ''yeah cool but the betting odds tho''.

You know how betting odds work. They aren't always based on some super serious analysis of fact. If Vegas thinks they are going to make a lot of money from stupid, ignorant, arrogant Lakers fans betting on their team to win despite not having a realistic chance of doing so, they will set the odds accordingly and proceed to rake in the cash when the Lakers underperform.

I've been clear about why I think the Lakers, even if they get Kawhi, are not a 100% lock for the playoffs: that is, should they decide to engage in heavy load management procedures, they would not be a team deep enough to truly guarantee the playoffs. Kawhi played 60 games last year. They absolutely cannot afford to let him sit 22 games for rest. They certainly cannot afford to rest all three of their players for that kind of time.

If the Lakers sign Kawhi, and then proceed to do ''load management'' for each of Lebron, AD, and Kawhi, to the tune of 15+ games each, they will have real trouble being a playoff team and, like I said, would be happy to win 45-50 games.

1) vegas o/u wagers(whether college football, the nba, etc) are not geared towards enticing fans of one team to vastly overrate their team and make those plays. This is a pretty common misconception. Why? because if there is some great error from what the 'true' o/u should be(or really any individual game) sharp syndicates will kill that. Absolutely murder it with high dollar plays spread against multiple books. And the books don't want tons of exposure in this way with sharp syndicates against them.
2) If they do get KL, all the simulations as well are going to produce a very high win total for the 2019-20 Lakers heading into the season

I mean everyone is free to their opinion and I actually may lean towards an under play on that o/u as well(depending on what it opens at) should they get Kawhi, but the opinion that they will have real trouble making the playoffs is most definitely a distinctly isolative one. Doesn't mean it will be wrong of course.

but your attempt to play overzealous or arrogant/entitled laker fans as the one driving this consensus on a lakers team with KL is just not reality. All the supposedly 'smart' basketball guys(the staff at the ringer, Zach Lowe) are extremely high on a KL/LJ/AD led 19-20 Lakers team. And when Zach Lowe and Haley Oshaunnesey and Kevin Oconnor are all saying this is a likely really good team with KL, I tend to put a lot of weight into that because they are very much analytical driven insiders and not laker fanboy types.

[Pelicanidae]

but your attempt to play overzealous or arrogant/entitled laker fans as the one driving this consensus on a lakers team with KL is just not reality. All the supposedly 'smart' basketball guys(the staff at the ringer, Zach Lowe) are extremely high on a KL/LJ/AD led 19-20 Lakers team. And when Zach Lowe and Haley Oshaunnesey and Kevin Oconnor are all saying this is a likely really good team with KL, I tend to put a lot of weight into that because they are very much analytical driven insiders and not laker fanboy types.

I'm not going to argue with you about Vegas odds or betting, because not only do I not thing you are getting my point, I also don't think it matters.

I want you to read my the post you just replied to again. Then one more time. Look, I'll even highlight the specific portion of it that's relevant here:

''should they decide to engage in heavy load management procedures, they would not be a team deep enough to truly guarantee the playoffs. Kawhi played 60 games last year. They absolutely cannot afford to let him sit 22 games for rest. They certainly cannot afford to rest all three of their players for that kind of time.

If the Lakers sign Kawhi, and then proceed to do ''load management'' for each of Lebron, AD, and Kawhi, to the tune of 15+ games each, they will have real trouble being a playoff team''

Give that a real long look. Understand that it does not mean ''The Lakers will not be a playoff team in 2019-20''. It means ''the Lakers will not be a playoff team in 2019-20 IF they undertake serious ''load management'' strategies for their three stars, because they are not deep enough to sustain that''.

That argument has NOTHING to do with how likely they are to be a ''really good team''. It is an argument which says ''yes, all three of them together provides a very strong core: the question is, HOW MANY GAMES DOES THAT CORE ACTUALLY PLAY?''. It doesn't matter if you have a solid gold trio, if you then sit all three of them for 10, 15, 20 games for ''load management'' then for those 10, 15, 20 games you essentially do NOT HAVE that core.

I do not think I can make this any more excruciatingly clear for you.

[Primetime]

The man's point is Kawhi going to the Lakers tanks the value of the draft picks. Load mgmt, or no load mgmt, we don't want to roll the dice against a team whose foundation begins with LeBron, AD, and Kawhi.

Sportsbooks across the world will install Lakers as a favorite. That's not a good thing. Y'all pick out the dumbest ******** to argue against.

[As I See It]

I think you need to cool your jets with regards to making points based on betting odds. I think this is the second or third time you've made an argument to me that basically boils down to ''yeah cool but the betting odds tho''.

You know how betting odds work. They aren't always based on some super serious analysis of fact. If Vegas thinks they are going to make a lot of money from stupid, ignorant, arrogant Lakers fans betting on their team to win despite not having a realistic chance of doing so, they will set the odds accordingly and proceed to rake in the cash when the Lakers underperform.

I've been clear about why I think the Lakers, even if they get Kawhi, are not a 100% lock for the playoffs: that is, should they decide to engage in heavy load management procedures, they would not be a team deep enough to truly guarantee the playoffs. Kawhi played 60 games last year. They absolutely cannot afford to let him sit 22 games for rest. They certainly cannot afford to rest all three of their players for that kind of time.

If the Lakers sign Kawhi, and then proceed to do ''load management'' for each of Lebron, AD, and Kawhi, to the tune of 15+ games each, they will have real trouble being a playoff team and, like I said, would be happy to win 45-50 games.

You are absolutely right. Geography and Team Profile always play a role when Vegas oddsmakers set a line. Why?

1. LA is a 5 hour drive to Vegas. Many of Vegas' high rollers commute from Southern California (homers usually bet for their team). Ergo, Lakers, Rams, Trojans, and Dodgers will always be betting favorites to some degree.
2. Teams with a high national profile always carry lower lines. Lakers and Celtics in NBA, Notre Dame and Alabama in NCAAF, Duke and Kentucky in NCAAB, Dodgers and Yankees in MLB, Cowboys and Patriots in NFL. Fans invested in a team rarely bet against their team.

[Primetime]

Sportsbooks in Thailand, Botswana, Florida, Germany, and Australia will have the Lakers as a far heavier favorite with Kawhi. Whether they're -200 or -150, who gives a f. Point is they'll be the favorite going into the season.

[Mount Zion]

I just hope that Kawhi re-signs with Toronto, the Lakers continue to prove they are a disfunctional organization and that AD hates playing for the Lakers so much that he bolts for the Knicks next year.

[luckyman]

1) vegas o/u wagers(whether college football, the nba, etc) are not geared towards enticing fans of one team to vastly overrate their team and make those plays. This is a pretty common misconception. Why? because if there is some great error from what the 'true' o/u should be(or really any individual game) sharp syndicates will kill that. Absolutely murder it with high dollar plays spread against multiple books. And the books don't want tons of exposure in this way with sharp syndicates against them.
2) If they do get KL, all the simulations as well are going to produce a very high win total for the 2019-20 Lakers heading into the season

I mean everyone is free to their opinion and I actually may lean towards an under play on that o/u as well(depending on what it opens at) should they get Kawhi, but the opinion that they will have real trouble making the playoffs is most definitely a distinctly isolative one. Doesn't mean it will be wrong of course.

but your attempt to play overzealous or arrogant/entitled laker fans as the one driving this consensus on a lakers team with KL is just not reality. All the supposedly 'smart' basketball guys(the staff at the ringer, Zach Lowe) are extremely high on a KL/LJ/AD led 19-20 Lakers team. And when Zach Lowe and Haley Oshaunnesey and Kevin Oconnor are all saying this is a likely really good team with KL, I tend to put a lot of weight into that because they are very much analytical driven insiders and not laker fanboy types.

I think you need to learn about the LVSC and how they set opening lines and what is and isn't a misconception. Then about how the thousands of separate bookies adjust those LVSC lines based on the action they receive at their particular locale. And most betting lines you see are an average of the largest ones.

And while Sharps tend to make larger line moving bets, it's only temporary, since they usually get overwhelmed by the public, and thus how they can make money.

Long story short, the Lakers being considered a favorite in "Vegas" says absolutely nothing about the reality of that team actually having the chance to be a favorite.

[As I See It]

I just hope that Kawhi re-signs with Toronto, the Lakers continue to prove they are a disfunctional organization and that AD hates playing for the Lakers so much that he bolts for the Knicks next year.

The ultimate Laker slam would be for AD to re-sign with the Pelicans next year.

You talk about an earthquake in California....the Lakers might never rebuild.

[DaPelFromHell]

Kawhi is not gonna sign with the Lakers. He would have to be the dumbest player in the world to sign with them. First of all they don’t have a good roster. When you join a “super team” most times they have a really good roster that has built some chemistry. Well this team will have a bunch of guys on in that have never played together. It will take some time for them to even get familiar with one another. If he joins the Lakers, it will be a huge shot to his reputation. Why would you leave a team that you just won a title with to join the king of the “super team” that took a huge hit reputation wise when he first joined that “super team” in Miami. I never looked at LeBron the same way after the “decision”. I think he did the absolute best thing by holding out, so the Lakers couldn’t really get the max player/third wheel of a big 3. I actually wanted them to sign another max guy cause their bench would of been horrible. I just don’t want them getting one of the best players currently in the league right now. I don’t see how you can win in today’s NBA without at least 2 to 3 good players coming off your bench. Then the coaching situation is a joke with a bunch of ex-head coaches that will more than likely but heads at every turn IMO. They will likely start off slow and the pressure will be taken up to unreal levels. The management side is terrible as well. An ex-agent Rob Pelinka is trying to be a GM with what seems to be no experience at all. The Lakers look like a dumpster fire that just got lucky that AD was easily taken advantage of by LeBron & Rich Paul. AD might look back on his hiring of Rich Paul as one of the worst basketball decisions of his career. Rich Paul got extremely lucky to get AD to go in with his plans cause it wasn’t looking too good for LeBron with the Lakers. Maybe Kawhi is truly an idiot and joins that dumpster fire to make it a legitimate title contender. Either way it could go good or terribly depending on what else they fill the roster with and how long it takes them to come together.

[Pelicans78]

I think having AD gives the Lakers a great chance to land Kawhi because it gives someone he can play with long-term. Plus he's wanted to be a Laker since he decided his team was done in San Antonio.