Lonzo Ball will be the the real deal here in NOLA

[new city champ]

Lebron still can't shoot, so he's not a great example.

The difference is: how many of those players who ''couldn't shoot a lick'' actually tried? Lopez, for example, took precisely 31 threes over his first 487 career games. His skill set didn't include shooting, but at least part of that was because he wasn't trying. The first season he started actually shooting, he shot 34.6% on nearly 400 attempts. That was his first year even trying.

Similarly, if you look at Dedmon, he attempted 1 three in his first 224 games. Then, two seasons ago, he started shooting threes and immediately in his first year as a ''stretch 5'', shot 35.5% on 141 attempts.

Lonzo started throwing up a LOT of threes as soon as he got into the league. He's played 99 total career games and taken 523 threes already, and shot 31.5% on them.

Did any of the other guys you named ever shoot that badly from behind the arc while actively trying to be a shooter? Or did they just not have shooting as part of their game, like Dedmon and Lopez?

Also, what are you talking about saying Kawhi shot badly early in his career? He shot at least 37% from three in each of his first three seasons.

Edit: of course, Jason Kidd did shoot a lot of threes early, that is true. I give you that one. Kidd wasn't a consistent league average shooter until he was in his thirties though, so hopefully Lonzo isn't taking that path.

Sorry to be slow to respond. busy. My point was shooting is an obtainable skill, even in the professional ranks, whether you learn it from scratch or refine it coming into the league. I haven't run a bunch of stat analysis historically but from memory guys like Paul George, Chris Paul, even Magic and Jordan, became much better outside shooters with time (you were right about Kawhi he's been pretty good from the jump, but was a terrible 3 point shooter in college, must have been what I was remembering. LeBron's been up and down through the years, but on average is sub-par). Among point guards, I don't recall that guys like Kemba Walker or Mike Conley or Kyle Lowry were very good shooters when they came in. Now I agree, Lonzo's shot looks broken and I think it would take some doing for him to do what Jason Kidd did (though Kidd's shot too looked horrible early in his career). But I wouldn't write it off the possibility of Lonzo becoming league-average (around 36%). It is possible to acquire that skill.

[Pelicanidae]

Sorry to be slow to respond. busy. My point was shooting is an obtainable skill, even in the professional ranks, whether you learn it from scratch or refine it coming into the league. I haven't run a bunch of stat analysis historically but from memory guys like Paul George, Chris Paul, even Magic and Jordan, became much better outside shooters with time (you were right about Kawhi he's been pretty good from the jump, but was a terrible 3 point shooter in college, must have been what I was remembering. LeBron's been up and down through the years, but on average is sub-par). Among point guards, I don't recall that guys like Kemba Walker or Mike Conley or Kyle Lowry were very good shooters when they came in. Now I agree, Lonzo's shot looks broken and I think it would take some doing for him to do what Jason Kidd did (though Kidd's shot too looked horrible early in his career). But I wouldn't write it off the possibility of Lonzo becoming league-average (around 36%). It is possible to acquire that skill.

I'm not saying it's impossible for Lonzo to become a good shooter, or at least a decent shooter. I'm just saying it's relatively unlikely, and not the kind of thing you can bet on.

Take the guys you're listing.

Paul George shot 29% in his rookie year. Awful. Then, his second year, he shot 38.7%, and has been consistently a good shooter since. CP3 shot 28.5% his rookie year, then jumped to 35% his second year and has been a pretty consistently good shooter since. Magic only had one good shooting year ever, and he was 30 by the time it happened: he didn't shoot better than 30% until his 9th year in the league. Jordan was a pretty terrible three point shooter his entire career, averaging 30.1% for his first 8 years. He did shoot well between 1995 and 1997, but that was the two years where the league shortened the three point line so it's not the same thing to be honest. Conley shot 40% his second year in the league and never shot below 36% again until two seasons ago.

What you generally see is that NBA players, like the guys you listed, generally tend to figure it out relatively early. They come into the league and within their first two or three seasons, they figure it out. Maybe they shoot poorly their rookie year (CP3, PG13, Conley) but by year two or three they have it. The guys who shoot badly for three, four, five years tend to never really figure it out: Magic and Jordan are examples of that. They never really became three point shooters.

The two guys who do add some support to your point though are Kemba and Lowry. Kemba, of course, never had a shot that was broken like Lonzo, but it did take him 4 years to figure it out. Lowry as well, shot well his rookie year (37.5%) but then regressed and shot under 30% for 4 seasons until jumping back up to 37.6% in his 5th year and never dropping seriously again. Again though, his shot was never as visibly and obviously as broken as Lonzo's, and both Lowry and Kemba both were far superior FT shooters than Lonzo, with FT%age being a good indication of the potential for an outside shot. Generally good shooters are also good FT shooters.

Could Lonzo figure it out like Lowry? Sure he could! But those guys are the exception rather than the rule: most guys figure it out within their first two or maybe three years if they're going to figure it out at all. I hope Lonzo turns into Bruce Bowen, who famously was a 40% 3 point shooter despite being bad at free throws, but I'm just saying don't bet on it. It could happen, I hope it happens, it would be cool if it happened, and it would be good for the team if it happened, but it's not a common occurrence for someone to be so bad early and just become brilliant later, especially when they're so bad from the line.