I was thinking a little bit about what kind of expectations we have for our rookies, coming into the league. There's been a little bit of discussion in a few threads about what kind of numbers we might expect Zion to average, and the number of minutes Hayes might get, so I figured I might as well make a thread where we can discuss that kind of thing with a little more focus.
For me, I have two different sets of expectations for Zion. The first is my realistic expectation, and the second is what I think is plausible (and hope for). They're a little different.
Expectations of Zion (realistic): 17/8/3, with around 1 steal and 1.5 blocks per game. 50-55% from the floor.
Expectations of Zion (hopeful): 22/10/4, around 1.5 steals and 2 blocks per game. 55%+ from the floor.
Given those expectations, I thought I'd do a little checking to see how those numbers compare historically. According to basketball reference, if Zion averages the ''Realistic'' numbers in his rookie year, he would become only the second rookie in the modern era to do so. The other was Chris Webber, who averaged 17.5/9.1/3.6/1.2/2.2 on 55% from the floor as a rookie.
Needless to say, with that information it becomes clear that if he were to meet the ''Hopeful'' expectations, he would be the first rookie in the modern era to hit those numbers. Which makes it even more absurd to me that watching him play, I could see it happening: sometimes it takes a little historical context to see how legitimately incredible Zion's talent could be in the NBA.
If you remove the ''modern era'' restriction, and just open up the floor to all of NBA history with those same limits, the number of players who meet 22/10/4 expands to include Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, Elgin Baylor, and Sidney Wicks. Of those names, only Kareem did it on more than 50% shooting from the floor (he also did it averaging 28/15/4, and Baylor did it averaging 24/15/4, for comparison).
And yet somehow, even knowing that, the possibility of 22/10/4 seems somehow like it could happen. It's not likely: that's why I have it as the hopeful, but even those ''realistic'' numbers are historically good. Opening the 17/8/3 statline up historically (omitting the steals/blocks requirement) creates a list that includes only 14 names, which contains the four guys listed above alongside Larry Bird, Bob Pettit, Larry Johnson, and Antoine Walker. This is not a bad list on which to find yourself.
So what do you guys think? What's realistic to expect from Zion in his rookie season, and then what do you hope for in the best case scenario?