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Thread: The Audacious John Wall trade idea...

  1. #1
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    The Audacious John Wall trade idea...

    Hear me out...and before I suggest something this audacious (possibly ludicrous), know that I don't even know if this would work and certainly I'm not at the point of advocating that this should happen. It's just an idea.

    Let's assume we do a trade with the Knicks.

    My assumption is we'd be getting 1 player on a rookie scale contract until summer of 2021 (DSJ), 2 players on rookie scale contract until summer of 2022 (Robinson/Knox), and at least 1 pick in this year's draft that would be on a rookie scale contract until summer of 2023. I assume depending on how high the Knicks pick is, we'd also get other future 1st round picks. Going forward we'd have that stash, as well as our own 1st round picks, and we're absolutely loaded with 2nd round picks. In theory, we'd be adding young talent every year and in no rush to add other big contract talent.

    This next part is very complicated, because it would involve Randle opting in, trade kickers being waived, etc etc... but follow along...

    What if we added Washington to the deal and made it a 3 way trade, that involved Washington dumping Wall, Beal, and their 2020 1st (top 6 protected, unprotected if it conveys in 2021) to the Pels? Randle, Solo, Moore, Trier, Frank, Jah, Ntilikina, Dotson, Lance Thomas would all have to go to the Wizards in this deal. Knicks would get AD and have literally no one else on the roster. That's perfect for Knicks to build the way Heat did, and Wizards get to wipe the slate clean as well while keeping their 19 pick and looking at some other young prospects like the two Franks, Trier, and Jah.

    Pels would have Jrue, Beal, Kenrich, Knox, DSJ, Robinson, 2 lottery picks from 2019, amazing draft capital going forward, and admittedly the worst contract in the NBA in John Wall. With just those 8 players, you're over the cap but $19m from the luxury line. You can stay out of the tax by signing minimum salary vets and 2nd rounders.

    How fun/competitive would this team be?

    Jrue/Elfrid
    Beal/DSJ
    Knox/Kenrich
    Zion/Jason Smith
    Robinson (Bruno Fernando or Jaxon Hayes)

    Pels stash going forward of draft picks could include all their own firsts, those two Dallas picks from Knicks, and a super valuable Wizards pick.

    Jrue and Beal account for ~$55m over next two seasons, and both can become free agents in 2021. Ideally this team is as accomplished as Portland has been with their backcourt, but the 2021 trade deadline is when you'd be looking to cash out of either or both if you're not really a contending team. Both players would still be in their prime and valuable assets. A lot can happen in 2 years, but you'd have to think either would be in a position to net at least what Tobias just got traded for (2 1st and expirings). The only way we keep both guys pass that deadline is if we have a legit shot at a championship because our young guys are ahead of schedule. Let's say we keep Jrue because he is part of the culture now and we can actually get more by trading Beal at 27 vs Jrue at age 30. We'd net 2 more 1st to go into our war chest (plus expirings). Only DSJ is exiting rookie scale contract in 2021, so we can resign Jrue if he opts out. Luxury tax is projected to be $143m, so we're still good there.

    It's hard to predict a lineup going into 21/22 season, but we'd have multiple guys we drafted in 2020, multiple 1st in 2021 - in addition to Knox, Robinson, Zion, and our own 2019 pick on rookie deals - and looking forward to multiple picks in 2022

    Some of you may be thinking, what about John Wall. I don't even really consider him a part of the team. If he comes back in 2020 and gives us anything going forward, that would be great as a 3rd guard. The first year that we have to pay one of rookies is going to be the 21/22 season. That's when we have to pay DSJ, but by then we've flipped Beal. If DSJ isn't the player we hoped and isn't ready to be a well paid starter on the 2nd contract, we've probably traded him too.

    By the time we get to the 2022/23 season, and we're possibly now paying Knox on his second contract, John Wall is either an average 3rd guard, retired due to injury, or the largest expiring contact in NBA history. Which means we can either use his contract and future 1st to take on a disgruntled NBA superstar or have a ton of space available to us in the summer we sign our two 2019 picks to second contracts.

    I'm not saying I'd do this, lol. Just wanted to regurgitate all this out of my head and onto the screen. Pairing Jrue/Beal while having a super young team that gets do develop winning habits, and what should be a great Wizards draft pick in 2020 or 2021 is the reason to do this trade. By the time this years picks (Zion and whoever) are about to get paid on 2nd contract, Wall is off the books.
    Last edited by NMThreeMVP; 02-10-2019 at 02:09 PM.

  2. #2
    I'm all for pairing Beal with Jrue. I'm completely against John Wall on that contract. It there's a way to get Beal without Wall then I'm interested. Anything requiring taking him back is almost impossible in my mind.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mythrol View Post
    I'm all for pairing Beal with Jrue. I'm completely against John Wall on that contract. It there's a way to get Beal without Wall then I'm interested. Anything requiring taking him back is almost impossible in my mind.
    Definitely. I guess the question is what’s more valuable over the next four years to Pelicans - draft picks and young talent (the cost to acquire Beal) or cap space (the cost of acquiring Wall)?

    I lean toward the former over the latter. But I wouldn’t even consider the deal without both Beal and the additional Wizards pick.

  4. #4
    It would be hard pressed to find a better off season as it gives us a fun team that will make the playoffs to watch going forward and net us some prospects that could make us title contenders later. Can't ask for more. Like you said, Wall's contract is awful but we can take it for a while. We aren't contending for a few years. It would keep butts in the seats and let us forget AD for a bit.

    Now how likely is it.......? So many things would have to go just right that I don't see it as being really plausible. But this is the preseason to the offseasons so I will still rate this a 9 out of 10.

  5. #5
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    I think you can think about the trade in the abstract as well, since so much would have to fall right for this specific scenario to play out. How willing should the Pels be to use cap space as an asset over the next 4 years to accumulate assets? Wall is the biggest and worst, obviously. But should Pels be willing to look at Batum, Parsons, or other bad contract in exchange for assets?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP View Post
    Definitely. I guess the question is what’s more valuable over the next four years to Pelicans - draft picks and young talent (the cost to acquire Beal) or cap space (the cost of acquiring Wall)?

    I lean toward the former over the latter. But I wouldn’t even consider the deal without both Beal and the additional Wizards pick.
    Simply can't take back 2 years of Beal for 4yrs of Wall.

  7. #7
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mythrol View Post
    Simply can't take back 2 years of Beal for 4yrs of Wall.
    Really it would only be 1.5 yrs of Beal because I’d flip him before his free agency.

    I thought Beal and what should be a very high draft choice is the cost of dumping that salary. But is Wall untradeable? I assume someone would take him at some point, but maybe not. What do you think it actually takes to dump the worst contract in the NBA?

    What’s the opportunity costs of having 4 years of bad salary for a rebuilding team that won’t be free agent players?

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP View Post
    Really it would only be 1.5 yrs of Beal because I’d flip him before his free agency.

    I thought Beal and what should be a very high draft choice is the cost of dumping that salary. But is Wall untradeable? I assume someone would take him at some point, but maybe not. What do you think it actually takes to dump the worst contract in the NBA?

    What’s the opportunity costs of having 4 years of bad salary for a rebuilding team that won’t be free agent players?
    We wouldn't want to be a bad team for 4 years though. You'd want 2 seasons to rebuild, maybe, before you start wanting that team to start winning games in the 2021-2022 season, and if you have an exciting young core then even if your team has been losing, there will be decent vets who would be willing to come for big, single year paydays: look at Reddick taking that huge single year deal to play with the young Sixers. We couldn't take advantage of that if we have $40m of Wall on the books still.
    Zion ''The Earthquake'' Williamson

  9. #9
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelicanidae View Post
    We wouldn't want to be a bad team for 4 years though. You'd want 2 seasons to rebuild, maybe, before you start wanting that team to start winning games in the 2021-2022 season, and if you have an exciting young core then even if your team has been losing, there will be decent vets who would be willing to come for big, single year paydays: look at Reddick taking that huge single year deal to play with the young Sixers. We couldn't take advantage of that if we have $40m of Wall on the books still.
    Right, but they severely overpaid Reddick. And paid him closer to value the next year because they didn't/couldn't use all their cap space.

    I don't really see a year over the next 4 where you'd be a bad team. You'd actually be a pretty good team in 19/20 with Ball/Jrue and youngins. You'd be a good team again in 20/21 with 2 more lottery picks (think big guards that might eventually replace Jrue/Beal- like Theo Maledon or Aaron Wiggins) and Wall coming back as your 3rd guard on a minutes restriction

    IF you could get the 3 players and 2 lottery picks deal for Beal that Clippers got for Tobias, you might take a step back after trade deadline in 21/22, but you could also cash out of Jrue at that point as well and likely get a similar haul for Jrue. So you'd be adding 5 to 6 more picks, a few quality players, and cap space in summer of 2021.

    2021/22 - This is really the first year you go into risking being bad. But only if you haven't hit on picks and spend poorly. This is year 3 of what might be a Zion and Bruno Furnando front court. Knox and DSJ are entering their prime. Your Jrue/Beal replacement are going into their 2nd year. Kenrich and Robinson are still around. You've got the mix of decent players you got from trading Beal/Jrue. And you would still have multiple 1st in 21/22/23.

    22/23 - This is the last year of Walls contract. But now you're talking about a team that success or failure is really being determined by Zion and all the other young vets on team. Whether we're average, bad, or really good really depends on him, DSJ, Knox and the other picks between now and then.
    Last edited by NMThreeMVP; 02-10-2019 at 07:08 PM.

  10. #10
    All-Star WildlifeAirGrp's Avatar
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    And when do we sniff the playoffs again? 2026?
    Thanks Pelicans Report - I get a laugh or three every day reading this thing. Hoping the magic returns to the SKC soon.
    Wildlife Aviation Group

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by WildlifeAirGrp View Post
    And when do we sniff the playoffs again? 2026?
    If Kenny Hustle keeps it up we might make the playoffs this year.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by WildlifeAirGrp View Post
    And when do we sniff the playoffs again? 2026?
    1. how many times have we sniffed the playoffs in the last 7 years?

    2. how quickly do you expect a team to sniff the playoffs after trading away a top 5 player from a team that rarely made the playoffs with that player?

    3. With solid coaching and good defense, a team with Jrue/Beal would sniff the playoffs.

    4. If Zion is a generational talent, and you build the right talent around him, we would be a solid playoff team by his 4th year with cap flexibility to build the right team before his UFA.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP View Post
    1. how many times have we sniffed the playoffs in the last 7 years?

    2. how quickly do you expect a team to sniff the playoffs after trading away a top 5 player from a team that rarely made the playoffs with that player?

    3. With solid coaching and good defense, a team with Jrue/Beal would sniff the playoffs.

    4. If Zion is a generational talent, and you build the right talent around him, we would be a solid playoff team by his 4th year with cap flexibility to build the right team before his UFA.
    Indiana Pacers. pG 13
    Sacramento- Boogie
    San Antonio- Kawhi
    Utah- Gordon Hayward

    Really disingenuous to talk about AD's first 2 years. So he's made the playoffs 2 of last 4 yrs. truly Cherry Pick.
    Last edited by Tinman; 02-10-2019 at 10:08 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mythrol View Post
    If Kenny Hustle keeps it up we might make the playoffs this year.
    True. Which would be even better if we could pass up the Lakers. Actually, that would be epic. I have no problem with the team we field today - minus AD. As long as they give effort I will continue to care and buy tickets and gear.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP View Post
    1. how many times have we sniffed the playoffs in the last 7 years?

    2. how quickly do you expect a team to sniff the playoffs after trading away a top 5 player from a team that rarely made the playoffs with that player?

    3. With solid coaching and good defense, a team with Jrue/Beal would sniff the playoffs.

    4. If Zion is a generational talent, and you build the right talent around him, we would be a solid playoff team by his 4th year with cap flexibility to build the right team before his UFA.
    I blame Dell and Alvin. Not the players. Maybe new leadership will make bold moves like you suggest.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinman View Post
    Indiana Pacers. pG 13
    Sacramento- Boogie
    San Antonio- Kawhi
    Utah- Gordon Hayward

    Really disingenuous to talk about AD's first 2 years. So he's made the playoffs 2 of last 4 yrs. truly Cherry Pick.
    How is it disingenuous or cherry picking to say AD has played 7 years and made the playoffs twice?? I’m not sure what that list of players is supposed to mean.

  17. #17
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! Tinman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP View Post
    How is it disingenuous or cherry picking to say AD has played 7 years and made the playoffs twice?? I’m not sure what that list of players is supposed to mean.
    When you are looking to the future, you kinda wanna look at the recent past. 2 out of past 4 yrs, Pels were in the playoffs. The list is in response to your question
    1) Paul George -traded -Indiana took Cleveland to game 7
    2) Boogie leaves Sac- Sac is fighting for playoffs right now& only 4 games out of 5th place.
    3) Utah loses Hayward, where are they right now ?
    4) Kawhi gone this year & last year, S.A. In playoffs both years .
    So your "teams that lose all star player are doomed for years" soliloquy is BUNK .

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinman View Post
    When you are looking to the future, you kinda wanna look at the recent past. 2 out of past 4 yrs, Pels were in the playoffs. The list is in response to your question
    1) Paul George -traded -Indiana took Cleveland to game 7
    2) Boogie leaves Sac- Sac is fighting for playoffs right now& only 4 games out of 5th place.
    3) Utah loses Hayward, where are they right now ?
    4) Kawhi gone this year & last year, S.A. In playoffs both years .
    So your "teams that lose all star player are doomed for years" soliloquy is BUNK .
    Some of these things are not like others...

    Indiana and San Antonio were perennial playoff teams.
    San Antonio is coached by the best coach in NBA history.
    Hayward was nowhere near a top 5 player, and was more easily replaced by Rubio and Mitchell.
    Boogie was traded in 2017. 2 years after, King’s currently sit in 9th place in the west.

    1. You’re comparing apples to oranges in some of these.
    2. Even when the comparison fits, the result doesn’t say what you want it to or believe it does
    3. You’re supposed to use these things “” only when you’re actually quoting something. I never said teams are doomed.
    4. I actually said the opposite. That Pels should be fun and competitive for next two years, and if they hit on draft they’ll be well positioned going forward.

    I Would add a 5th point if I was confident you’ve understood 1 thru 4 or anything else I’ve posted. Dude, seriously, just ignore my posts and pretend like I’m posting in Chinese.

  19. #19
    Pistol Pete Would Be Proud!! Tinman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP View Post
    Some of these things are not like others...

    Indiana and San Antonio were perennial playoff teams.
    San Antonio is coached by the best coach in NBA history.
    Hayward was nowhere near a top 5 player, and was more easily replaced by Rubio and Mitchell.
    Boogie was traded in 2017. 2 years after, King’s currently sit in 9th place in the west.

    1. You’re comparing apples to oranges in some of these.
    2. Even when the comparison fits, the result doesn’t say what you want it to or believe it does
    3. You’re supposed to use these things “” only when you’re actually quoting something. I never said teams are doomed.
    4. I actually said the opposite. That Pels should be fun and competitive for next two years, and if they hit on draft they’ll be well positioned going forward.

    I Would add a 5th point if I was confident you’ve understood 1 thru 4 or anything else I’ve posted. Dude, seriously, just ignore my posts and pretend like I’m posting in Chinese.
    Oh I gotcha, now you add caveats .
    1) you may want to check Indiana's Playoff record since 2006-7! You fudged again. Never finished better than 7th w/ All-Star PG-13.
    2) In Feb of 17 Boogie leaves Sac. 1 1/2 yrs later 2018 season Sacramento is 5 games over 500 & w/in 3 games of the 5th seed.
    3) To claim that Gordon Hayward wasn't the face of Utah & easily their All Star is really silly.
    4) You never said anything about A COACH, until you were called out on your obviously flawed statement.
    Also, when 1 starts parsing words , you know , like doomed etc to explain your crazy 4 yr abyss, then I know you are losing the discussion . As Pelicandae said- 4 yrs is crazy.
    So, in closing , although you are not Literally posting in Mandarin, the Chinese may understand what you're saying more than us Basketball folks.
    You are so gung-ho to prove everyone else wrong, your blinkers don't work .

    3)
    Last edited by Tinman; 02-11-2019 at 08:31 AM.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinman View Post
    Oh I gotcha, now you add caveats .
    1) you may want to check Indiana's Playoff record since 2006-7! You fudged again. Never finished better than 7th w/ All-Star PG-13.
    2) In Feb of 17 Boogie leaves Sac. 1 1/2 yrs later 2018 season Sacramento is 5 games over 500 & w/in 3 games of the 5th seed.
    3) To claim that Gordon Hayward wasn't the face of Utah & easily their All Star is really silly.
    4) You never said anything about A COACH, until you were called out on your obviously flawed statement.
    Also, when 1 starts parsing words , you know , like doomed etc to explain your crazy 4 yr abyss, then I know you are losing the discussion . As Pelicandae said- 4 yrs is crazy.
    So, in closing , although you are not Literally posting in Mandarin, the Chinese may understand what you're saying more than us Basketball folks.
    You are so gung-ho to prove everyone else wrong, your blinkers don't work .

    3)
    1. Pacers won the 3 seed several times. Finished one season as the #1 seed. Made it to Eastern Conference Finals. Seriously, what are you talking about?
    2. Kings are currently the 9th seed. IF you feel it makes your case to say they're w/in 3 games of 5 seed, be my guess. You can say they're w/in 10.5 of 1 seed for all I care.
    3. Never claimed Gordon Hayward wasn't the face of Utah or an All Star. That's very different from a 1st Team All NBA and top 5 guy. Nikola Vucevic is the face of Orlando and an All Star. Losing him is not the same thing as losing AD.

    4. Literally the entire point of this post was to propose a way for the Pelicans to be good starting next season with a team led by Jrue/Beal, and to be competitive 3 years later while flipping Jrue/Beal and letting young guys lead, while setting up the team for success with draft assets and cap flexibility 4 years from now.

    Not sure why you seem so agitated by this. You literally have not comprehended anything I've posted, but seem super upset about it. Maybe I'm reading you wrong (could be) and you're out enjoying the day and flying a kite. I'm not trying to prove you wrong, I'm just throwing out an absurdly hypothetical scenario for discussion to pass the time between now and the draft lottery. The larger theoretical question is around team building and whether or not we should use cap space as an asset while we rebuild and aren't a free agent destination. The extreme of that is taking on the worst contract in exchange for killer assets (Beal/lottery pick from bad team). The more realistic and likely solution is somewhere in the middle - but while taking on a guy of Batum's caliber (both in salary and skill) is safer, you're also not going to get as good a return for taking that on as you'd get for taking on an extreme contract. But if the principle is that we want to take on salary over the next years to accumulate assets, why halfass it. That's sort of the thought process around all of this.

    But like I said, if you're flying a kite today, and my posts feel too much like rocket science... I apologize and respectfully leave you to enjoy your kite.

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