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You have absolutely no way of knowing that. What you mean is, you personally don't think teams that land Zion would trade him for AD.Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP
Well I think they would, depending on the team. I think NY would do it, for example, but Atlanta wouldn't.
I have exactly as much evidence and proof as you do: that is, none. So if someone else disagrees, you can't really say they're wrong, because they've got just as much reason to think what they do as you have to think what you do.
Zion ''The Earthquake'' Williamson
If you truly believe that Kyrie to NY is a done deal (which there are absolutely no indications of such), they are the most likely to trade the #1 for AD IMO. However, we would never know if we did not wait until after the trade deadline to find out.
I wouldn't say anyone is wrong. That's not my style on here.
I think there has been plenty of indication for a couple of years going back to his original trade request out of Cleveland, but if you don't deem any of the hints and clues as such, it's not worth arguing over.
The Knicks pick has a significantly higher probability of being 5th or 6th than #1.
That's true of every pick.
The fact is, SOMEONE has to get the #1 pick, and the Knicks have the best chance possible. Obviously, they share that probability with CLE and ATL, because of the way draft odds are allocated, but someone has to get it, and they have just as much chance as anyone, and a much larger chance than most.
I realize the probability of the Knicks getting #1 are long, but I did not think that was the discussion. I thought it was whether they would trade it if they had it. As far as Irving, he is a difficult cat to read. Are their indications that he may not sign with Boston? Sure. However, that is much different than saying it is a done deal that he is going to NY. Regardless, arguing over whether the Pelicans should have taken the Lakers offer at the deadline is fruitless as that ship has sailed. The only option now is hoping for a good deal from some team this summer whether it is Boston, LA, NY or some other team.
Honestly, I'm thinking that the Knicks may not even need the #1 pick to have the best package.
If they they the #2 pick too, that's still Ja Morant or RJ Barrett, and I think that Mitchell Robinson and DSJ have a lot of promise, particularly Robinson. Obviously it depends what Boston end up with, and what they're willing to sell, but I can see
Knicks: #2 pick + 2021 Dallas pick + 2021 Knicks pick + Mitchell Robinson + Kevin Knox + Dennis Smith Junior
being better than
Boston: #18th pick via LAC + #22 pick + Tatum + Smart
Obviously if Boston stumps up the 18th from LAC, the 14th from SAC, the 22nd, the 2021 Memphis pick, plus Tatum, plus Brown, plus Smart, then I don't think that NY could beat that but I don't know if they'd be willing to give up EVERYTHING.
That should at least be enough to force Boston to include Brown in the deal with Tatum.
Maybe, but then what's better?
Whoever you take with the #2 pick, be it Ja Morant or Barrett, should be a player that you see huge upside in. Tatum is a very good player with a very high ceiling, but is his ceiling higher than Ja's? Maybe, but maybe not. Is Brown's ceiling really that much higher than Robinson's? Sure, Brown is better right now, but he's also 2 years older than Robinson, and their skillsets lay in different places.
I guess it all depends on what our scouts think, and unfortunately I don't think we can know their opinions. If they see Ja as having a higher ceiling than Tatum, then maybe they see Robinson as more valuable than Brown since Ja+Robinson provides that guard+big combo that's been so historically successful, as well as providing a defensive anchor to go along with the dynamic offensive player, which would offset the fact that Brown arguably has better individual traits than Robinson.
Wish we had more insight into the FO.
If you truly believe Kyrie and KD to NY is a done deal then you should also believe Boston will do everything in their power to get AD and keep him out of NY, which is not only an Eastern Rival but in the same dicision. I'd say Ainge's job relies on it.
Could you imagine the backlash if Boston loses Kyrie, then gets outbid for AD by a division rival?
See here's the thing that's so crazy with you. You believe the difference between Ingram + Ball and Tatum is a bike lane but yet you also believe he is too good for Boston to include him in a trade for AD. It really looks like you're talking out of both sides of your mouth to fit whatever narrative you are trying to push.
I don’t think he’s too good for Boston to include for AD. Never said that. What I said quite clearly is Boston won’t trade him for AD once Kyrie bounces because it would be a rental. AD isn’t resigning with Boston to play with Gordon Hayward. So once Kyrie says he intends to go to NYC, Tatum is very likely off the table.
You said in the past you weren't even sure Tatum was on the table for AD. As in ever. Are you now saying you've changed your mind on that point and think if Kyrie stays Tatum would be included?
idk why you're even bothering man he'll never admit he was wrong and he'll continue to move the goal post.
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I’ve always said it’s not a guarantee Tatum will be included in the deal. And I’ve consistently said that’s because I don’t think Kyrie is staying in Boston. Of course if Kyrie says he’ll stay if they trade for AD, the Celtics would be stupid not to include Tatum (especially since I don’t think he’s a superstar in waiting). I’ve just never believed Kyrie is going to make his decision based on who trades for AD. Him and KD in NY has been the obvious move since they opened up the 2 max spots.
Ive actually been saying the same thing since December, so this is pretty easy. Not moving goal post. If you show me something I’m wrong about, great.
ahahahahahahahaha
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My thought is that at least you could have two solid packages to choose from. It will all depend on what our new GM thinks. So, there is no way to know yet what the new GM would prefer.
Contributor
What's the timeline, again? How can Kyrie leave before we know who gets what lottery pick? Before the draft? Before free agency even begins? All of these happen first. And at any moment before Kyrie could ever sign with another team, we could pretty much agree in principle to a trade and wait until it's legal to do it.
So what is the big concern here? Please tell me what I'm missing.
Some people are so desperate that they ignore logic.
***sigh***
For the 100th time...
Just like AD, and countless players before him, was able to make his intentions known before he had any ability to act on them ...Kyrie Irving can indicate to the Celtics his intentions to not resign whenever he feels like it. He could do it tomorrow if their losing streak continues, or he could do it as soon as they lose their last playoff game.
Just like you and others acknowledge we can agree in principle to a deal with the Celtics before we can legally execute it, Kyrie can say he’s leaving the Celtics (or an AD trade will have NO impact on his decision) before he is legally able to switch teams.
Now if you believe the Celtics will trade the Pelicans their best assets with no guarantee that doing so will keep Kyrie in the fold (Kyrie being the dude who’s presence might convince AD to sign long term), then I guess I can see how what I’ve been saying doesn’t make much sense.
But I don’t believe Celtics commit to anything unless they know getting AD = Kyrie staying. You don’t trade Tatum, Smart, and multiple picks to end up losing Kyrie this summer and AD next summer. That doesn’t seem like something Ainge would do.
If you’re betting the Pelicans future on an All In offer from Boston, you’re most likely subjecting yourself to the decision making of Kyrie Irving. No reason to be in denial like some folks about that. It is what it is at this point.
But you are also assuming that Boston would just punt and throw in the towel if Kyrie changes his mind and leaves. As if they would not have a backup plan. Would they not pursue another FA that would want to play with AD? If they tell Horford that he will be in a trade to NOLA, he would opt out opening another max slot or they could make us take him or Hayward in a deal (or involve a 3rd team). While Kyrie walking may throw a wrench into the plans, it is not like everything automatically falls apart and Boston goes into rebuild.
I get the feeling that there's an awful lot of one dimensional thinking going on in regards to this trade.
A kind of mindset where you have a set of potential deals in mind, and if any one thing changes, those deals evaporate entirely. So, for example, some people seem to think that NY needs to have the #1 pick to even be in conversation, and if they get the #2 or #3 pick, they're immediately out of consideration. Or that if Kyrie leaves Boston, suddenly Boston drops out of the race and there's no offer they would make that could be intriguing.
It just doesn't work that way. NY could still put together a very enticing deal without the #1 pick. Even if Kyrie leaves, Boston still have very good reason to want AD, and they would have to compete with other offers still to do so, which means they can't afford to drop their offer too significantly.
This isn't so one dimensional.
I don't think it's one dimensional. In fact, I'd argue that what I've been trying (in vain) to articulate is that there are multiple variables and multiple things that can happen that impact the value of offers.
Offers could be better than we anticipate if the lottery falls right. For instance... What if the Kings and Lakers don't make the playoffs. A scenario where Kings pick lands at 4 (conveying to BOS), Lakers pick lands at 2, and Knicks picks end up at 3, Hawks land 4th, and Memphis pick lands at 8 (conveying to BOS), could create a bidding war that greatly benefits the Pelicans.
Kyrie Irving could let it be known that he really wants to play with AD and that would put the Pels in position to drive the cost up to both Boston and New York.
Things could go very well for the Pelicans. Things could also go the opposite way. I try to be pretty realistic about this, but end up arguing the negative side 99% of the time because 99% of the time no one on here wants to acknowledge the risk and the downside.
This definitely isn't a one dimensional, one direction, endeavor.
Last edited by NMThreeMVP; 03-01-2019 at 12:42 PM.
They don't really have cap space to pursue anyone significant just because Kyrie leaves. This is a team that did well without Kyrie. If he leaves, they won't exactly be in rebuild mode. Instead of AD for 1 year, they'll still have all their valuable draft assets, Horford, Smart, Rozier, Brown, Gordon, and Tatum. To get AD they'd have to give up a lot of that, including Tatum. Anything is possible, sure. But why would they do that? What 2nd star are they recruiting to Boston to play with AD for one year? I just don't see Ainge doing that.
I wasn't aiming it at you specifically. I would have done it as a reply to you, if I was thinking about you as an individual. It's more of a line of thought that I think several people have kind of dipped in and out of at times, including myself.
I would add though, that I think that everyone on here has acknowledged the risk fairly frequently. I know I have, Mythrol has, I think PELICANSFAN has. It's just that we've evaluated the risk and decided that it's a risk worth taking, and therefore we don't preface every post with a rundown of potential risks. Instead we just discuss the topic.
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