Hurricane Ike (Cat 2) --------EDIT:Now threating Texas

[alon504]

As time passes, this is looking more like a Houston evac. as opposed to us--but, it's still fairly far out...we'll know in about 36 hours, IMO, where this is headed when it enters the GOM.

[Who Dat033]

Most of the models are taking this to Texas. The rest are bringinng it into Florida. Right now, I don't see a model that's even showing it going to the Louisiana coast. Still, it's quite a ways out, so don't let your guard down. We need to continue to monitor this system very closely.

[Southpaw]

Models are still shifting east and west, but most of them are pointing toward a Texas or extreme SWLA landfall.

[West Coast Hornet]

Seems to be a push at the moment. 3 models have a TX landfall and 3 have a La. landfall. None appear to be SELA at the moment.

[alon504]

Well, some of the latest runs are more to the right....this is just something we are going to have to watch closely this week.

[Who Dat033]

The new track is not just further east, but it looks like the NHC has almost completely taken out the westward turn that was expected to protect SELA from a direct hit. It shows it going WNW and just staying like that. How aggravating. Just have to keep monitoring it.

[patriotman5]

There is an interesting discussion on the board Slidell Hornet referred WCH to that says now one of the professional meteorologists who posts there is detecting a weakness in the high pressure ridge, which could really jeopardize SELA

[Terrace Fan]

There is an interesting discussion on the board Slidell Hornet referred WCH to that says now one of the professional meteorologists who posts there is detecting a weakness in the high pressure ridge, which could really jeopardize SELA

As of now still going toward Houston/Beaumont/TX&LA border. As far as these alamist causing panic, They can panic me all they want, Like many other people I'm staying now!

[West Coast Hornet]

People will definitely make their own decisions, but I think the message right now is to keep an eye out.

[alon504]

Wow, the latest model runs are totally looking good...all the way down to between Brownsville and Galveston....notta one on Louisiana. We should have nothing with this system if this continues with the models. They are in pretty good agreement with the 2:00EST runs.

[ktulu909]

Wow, the latest model runs are totally looking good...all the way down to between Brownsville and Galveston....notta one on Louisiana. We should have nothing with this system if this continues with the models. They are in pretty good agreement with the 2:00EST runs.

The only problem is that you have to make a forecast on model trends,not just one run.The only thing I get out of the last couple days "trends is that the models are having a very hard time forecasting this trough that is supposed to occur.Timing is everything and everything in that cone has to watch out for now.

[West Coast Hornet]

That's true^, but at least the models are currently in agreement that the storm should be heading west into Texas. Yesterday the models were split between Texas, La., and even Pensacola.

Cuba got drilled.

http://www.miamiherald.com/581/story/677292.html

[Terrace Fan]

Models are in agreemnt now, Its going to Texas.

[ktulu909]

Models are in agreemnt now, Its probably going to Texas.

There,fixed that for ya

[Terrace Fan]

There,fixed that for ya

Thanks,


We may get some of the outer bands(Rain).

[ktulu909]

This is why I never live by the models.Read some of the very early entries.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...?tstamp=200508

[NYKF Hornet]

If the models hold then this is very good news.

[ktulu909]

I really want these models to hold.I want my bed and have a VERY small window to get out of TX before everyone else tries.

[West Coast Hornet]

Want to see what a surge looks like? Watch the begining and end of this video. (Copy and paste all in browser)

javascript:void(window.open('http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/ynews;_ylt=Auj7Qmu.3m9O6Oy7L7_RNgJH2ocA?ch=4226714&cl=9636054&lang=en','playerWindow','width=793,height=608,scro llbars=no'));

[FlyGirl]

I saw that earlier today and I was like ....

That's some scary stuff.

[West Coast Hornet]

A check of the 8 p.m. EDT models has this nowhere near New Orleans now, or even La. All models are pointing to somewhere in mexico up towards not quite Galveston. Of course, we are still in the cone.

[West Coast Hornet]

Storm is now heading just above the Rio Grande Valley. New Orleans and all of South La. should escape this storm, barring a radical change in forecast. In fact, the entire state is outside the cone of error now, which is amazing. Still a chance of getting some bad weather as the storm moves to our south in the Gulf, but it doesn't look like much. BTW, shows you how unreliable forecasting is days in advance. I don't think anyone predicted a South Texas landfall with this storm until very, very recently.

[West Coast Hornet]

Storm is entering the Gulf now. Still looks fairly impressive.

[NYKF Hornet]

Unless this storm takes a serious turn towards the north then Louisiana will be okay. The big thing for us are storms that hit us heading north/east, since the winds would be pushing water in the lake and then down towards the city (if it's traveling in that Katrina like direction).

[West Coast Hornet]

There has been a slight change in the 2 p.m. EDT advisory. Steering currents appear to be changing. Storm now looks to be on a path hitting between Galveston and Corpus Christi. Then the storm moves to the NNE as it heads inland. Let's hope this "weakness" in the High pressure doesn't continue to break down. I hate to say it, but we still need to watch this storm closely. In fact, SW La. has moved BACK INTO the cone of error.