In a decision that came as the last thing the NFL players hoped for or expected after US District Judge Susan Richard Nelson lifted the owner-imposed lockout on April 25th, the 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled Monday to grant a permanent stay on Judge Nelson’s ruling, keeping the lockout in place until the NFL’s appeal of Judge Nelson’s ruling is complete.  That hearing is scheduled for June 3, and the decision is expected in mid-July, which means no football action until at least then.

This has to be considered a massive victory for the owners, a far cry from Nelson’s decision which had the football world feeling as though it was on the brink of the beginning of the NFL league year and free agency only three weeks ago.  The leverage has shifted significantly, and even more dramatically toward the owners than it did toward the players with Nelson’s initial ruling.  The stay seems to be a good indicator of where the appellate judges stand on the appeal itself, and if so, the players may want to think about throwing in the towel while they still have a chance at structuring this CBA the way they want it, rather than at the complete will of the owners once the lockout is officially declared legal in July.

Court-ordered mediation began yesterday, and the vibe being put out is that progress has been made.  It is probably telling that this rhetoric is coming from the NFL and not the players, but the reports are that the players are at least considering a new proposal presented by the owners in today’s talks.  Mediation has come to a stop for now, but it is set to resume June 7, four days after the June 3 hearing during which the appellate court will hear arguments from both sides over whether or not the lockout should remain in place.

Basically, the thought at this point is that this appeal isn’t going to go the players’ way, and that they have a couple of options moving forward.  They could agree on a deal now and take what they can get with reduced leverage, or they can wait until a decision comes and, assuming they lose the appeal, be forced to take what the owners give them once their leverage is gone entirely.

Whatever happens, unless the next round of mediation is successful (which seems unlikely), the two sides are really starting to cut it close in terms of getting the NFL season going on time.  Even if the league year starts immediately after the appellate ruling comes down, we’d be talking about roughly two weeks to get in free agency, trading periods, and training camps before the scheduled start of the preseason.  Each ruling from the 8th Circuit Court is making a timely start to the 2011 season seem like more of a stretch than the last.