The last thing the Saints want to do is allow Colin Kaepernick to remember how dangerous he can be with his legs.
The New Orleans Saints defense continues to impress after yet another week of shutting down a good offense. After being fired by Dallas at the end of last season, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan got the last laugh, coaching his unit to another solid performance. The Saints defense ranks in the top-5 of points allowed, giving up a 5th best 18.1 points per game. They’ve yet to allow over the opposing team score more than 17 points in the Superdome, having held Atlanta, Miami, Buffalo, and Dallas all to that total. New Orleans also finds themselves in the top-10 in total yardage, giving up 317.6 yards per game. What’s even more impressive, is the fact that they’ve accomplished these numbers at less than 100% health. Roman Harper looks to be set to finally return to the field today after missing the last seven games following a knee injury in Week 2 at Tampa Bay. Malcolm Jenkins has missed the last two games, but also looks poised to return against San Francisco. Throw in injuries that have kept players like Cameron Jordan, Keenan Lewis, and David Hawthorne on the injury report for the better part of the season and you’re looking at a very tough, resilient defense that has fought very hard this season and it’s surely paid off. Turnover differential has also been a huge part of the team’s success for far this season, sitting at +5, tied for 7th best in the league. Ryan’s defense has forced 15 turnovers, which is 15 extra possessions for Drew Brees. Extra possessions for an offense as potent as the Saints’, usually means extra points.
The San Francisco 49ers come to New Orleans following one of their worst offensive showings of the season. The Carolina Panthers held the 49ers to an abysmal 151 yards of total offense last week. That’s less than half of their average weekly output, averaging 321..6 yards per game. San Francisco ranks 22nd in the NFL in total offense and has heavily relied on their defense to win games for them this year. They’ll likely have to do just that again this week, because the likelihood of the 49ers keeping up with Drew Brees and company is slim to none.
Pass Defense
The pass defense has continued to shine for the Saints so far this year. They rank 3rd in the NFL in yards allowed through the air, giving up 199.9 yards per game. The pressure on the quarterback has not been quite as frequent as it was earlier in the season, meaning that the Saints secondary is playing some great football. Keenan Lewis has been arguably the best free agent that New Orleans signed this past off season. He leads the team with three interceptions, but it’s his coverage that has been fantastic. Number one receivers have not done a whole lot against the Saints this season and that’s in large part due to Lewis’ play. Despite using a second defender at times, Lewis locked down Dez Bryant last week, nearly holding him without a catch for the entire game.
San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick was unable to break 100 yards passing last week against Carolina, finishing 11/22 for 91 yards and an interception. It’s been a tough year for Kaepernick, as he’s seen much less success than he saw in his run through the second half of the regular season and playoffs last year. Whether it be him trying to do too much or opposing coaches discovering ways to slow him down, he has certainly been brought back down to earth after his 2012 campaign. Last week’s struggles against the Panthers were not just a one week thing. In fact, the 49ers rank dead last in the NFL with 173.9 passing yards per game. Personally, it’s shocking that they’ve been able to work their way to a 6-3 record while playing that one-dimensional.
Whether or not Vernon Davis plays today will largely dictate if the 49ers have any chance to do anything through the air. Even if he does play, you can expect the Saints to repeat what they did against Dez Bryant last week. Davis is questionable to play after suffering a concussion and missing much of the team’s game last week. He’ll be a game time decision after going through warm ups. San Francisco will certainly need him, having relied on him to catch seven of Kaepernick’s nine touchdown passes this year. Michael Crabtree will remain out, still recovering from tearing his achilles tendon in the off-season. With Anquan Boldin being the only other semblance of a weapon in the 49ers passing attack, expect the Saints to try and force Kaepernick to beat them with his arm. Assuming Davis plays, they’ll likely double him, keep one man spying on the quarterback in case he decides to run, and make him try and find one on one coverage.
Rush Defense
It’s a good thing that the Saints were able to cushion their lead in the first half last week, because the Cowboys seemed to have found a chink in the defense’s armor. That chink has been no secret, as New Orleans has struggle against the run. Aside from the Patriots and Jets games, they’ve been able to force teams to get away from the run, as the opposition attempts to keep up with the powerful Saints offense. New Orleans ranks 23rd in the NFL, allowing 117.7 yards per game on the ground. It’s not necessarily the total yardage that is scary, but it’s the yards per carry average that is much too high. The Saints are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for last in the NFL, allowing a whopping 5.0 yards per carry. That number was perfectly exemplified in the game against the Jets, where New York was able to continue attacking on the ground and the Saints had no answer.
Aside from their good defensive play, the running game is the only reason that the 49ers have been able to pull out six victories in 2013. San Francisco ranks 4th in the NFL, churning out 147.7 yards per game on the ground. Frank Gore is putting up another very good season and is 6th in the NFL with 700 yards rushing. He has also done a great job of getting in to the end zone, sitting tied for 4th with fellow NFC West running back Marshawn Lynch with 7 touchdown runs.
By no means do I believe that this will be an easy match-up for the Saints, but the only way I see the 49ers coming out victorious is if they are able to run the ball effectively and control the clock. I’ve said before that team’s will try to use ball control as their best defense against Drew Brees and if anyone can do it, it’s San Francisco. The question will be, can their defense slow down Brees and can Kaepernick make throws when they need him to. That game plan all starts with Frank Gore, though, so look for him to see at least 20 carries, while the 49ers look to set the tone early.
Players to Watch
Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne
The inside linebackers are going to be key in stopping the San Francisco rushing attack. Not only are we talking about Frank Gore, but Colin Kaepernick also has the ability to be dangerous on the ground. He has run the ball much less this season compared to last year, but the last thing that the Saints want to do is to allow him to find creases if he scrambles or runs the read option. These two will be responsible for clogging holes in the running game against Gore and also for spying on Kaepernick if he chooses to try and use his legs.
Malcolm Jenkins and Roman Harper
It’s likely that these two return to the field today and it couldn’t come at a better time. Kenny Vaccaro will miss the game with a concussion, so the Saints will need their starting safeties badly. New Orleans isn’t looking forward to the return of Jenkins and Harper for their pass coverage, though. The two are excellent in run support from the defensive backfield and have the ability to close in on runners in a hurry. With San Francisco’s best option being to run the ball at the Saints, it’ll be nice to have two experienced players such as these two coming down in support.
Player X Covering Vernon Davis
First off, this paragraph is obviously assuming that Davis does play. If he does, it’ll be interesting to see how the Saints choose to cover him. Normally, the main option would be Kenny Vaccaro, but as we said, he’s out with a concussion. Regardless of whoever is tasked with covering the athletic tight-end, I do expect him to often get help from a second defender in obvious passing downs. There will still be one particular man that is tasked with defending Davis and a sleeper could be Keenan Lewis. We talked about how well Lewis did against Dez Bryant, who is a very big, physical receiver, so the Saints could choose to use him against Davis, seeing as he is their best cover man. The 49ers’ lack of a strong number one receiver will also help. Keep an eye out on early passing downs to see just who it is that lines up across from #85.
