If before the regular season started someone had told you that the Saints defense would significantly outplay the offense in their first two games, would you have believed them? If they had told you that they’d still be 2-0, even with that happening, would you still believe them? What if they would’ve then told you that they would be tied for 6th best in the NFL in points allowed with under 16 per game? At that point, you would’ve been starting to think that person is crazy, right? Well that’s where things stand heading in to today’s game against the Arizona Cardinals.
Junior Galette will lead the Saints pass rush against a weak Arizona offensive line.
Rob Ryan’s defense has followed up a terrific Week 1 performance with an even better Week 2 performance, carrying the Saints to a 2-0 start. Even after what we’ve seen, it’s natural to still be slightly pessimistic after remembering how this unit performed a year ago. There hasn’t been drastic changes other than the defensive coordinator. Kenny Vaccaro, Keenan Lewis, and Parys Haralson are the only notable newcomers, which doesn’t seem like enough to single-handily make a huge turnaround. It’s looking like the Saints have just finally found the right scheme for their personnel. We’ve discussed how players such as Cam Jordan, Junior Galette, and Martez Wilson are all better fits for the 3-4 defense. It’s all combined for what has been a shocking turnaround from a team that fielded the worst defense in the history of the NFL a year ago. Can they keep it up? Well, that remains to be seen. I find it hard to believe that the defense will remain close to a top-5 unit all year, but as we discussed in the season preview, they don’t have to. If the Saints defense hangs around the middle of the pack throughout the year, you could be witnessing another Super Bowl run. That is, of course, assuming the offense gets back to their usual ways.
Arizona comes in to New Orleans with the 14th ranked offense in the NFL. They have a new quarterback under center, as Carson Palmer moves on from his unsuccessful stint in Oakland. He has never been able to get back to his near-elite status since he suffered a torn ACL with the Bengals in their Wild Card Playoff game back in 2006. Don’t be completely fooled, though, as he can still be dangerous. The Cardinals have another new face on their offense, as running back Rashard Mendenhall has left Pittsburgh to continue his career in Arizona. Everyone is familiar with wide-receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who remains one of the game’s best pass catchers. The Saints defense will be in for another early test, as the Cardinals look to be the first team crack the new Rob Ryan attack.
Passing Defense
The Saints pass defense comes in to Week 3 hot off of a great shutdown performance against Josh Freeman. They allowed only 125 yards passing to the Buccaneers in their 16-14 victory in Tampa Bay last week. That, along with their Week 1 win vs. Atlanta, has the Saints pass defense ranked 8th in the NFL, allowing 196 yards per game. Last year, the Saints were widely criticized for never getting any interceptions from their safeties. Well, after two games, Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins have the only 2 on the team. The pass rush has been turned up this season, with 4 sacks so far.
The Cardinals passing offense has been fairly decent to start the year. They rank 11th in the NFL, averaging 282.5 yards per game. Carson Palmer has thrown only 3 touchdowns so far to go along with his 2 interceptions. His completion percentage is certainly lower than he’d like at 61%, showing the inaccuracy he’s provided on the down side of his career. Arizona’s offensive line hasn’t done very well protecting Palmer so far, giving up 5 sacks through their first two contests. Larry Fitzgerald is surprisingly not the Cardinals’ leading receiver in terms of catches and yards, but he does have the team lead with 2 touchdowns. Andre Roberts is the team leader with 11 catches for 133 yards out of the slot.
After facing a great passing offense, followed by a below average one, the Saints are likely to see something right in the middle this week. The Cardinals certainly have the weapons to score some points, but they’ll need their number one weapon on the field. Larry Fitzgerald is questionable to play today while dealing with a left hamstring injury suffered in Arizona’s Week 2 win at Detroit. He practiced Friday and says he’s ready to play, but his status remains up in the air. If he is to miss the game, there will be no excuse for the Saints to struggle slowing down this passing attack. Young, talented receiver Michael Floyd would step in to Fitzgerald’s roll if he doesn’t play, but he’s not quite the same threat. Assuming Fitzgerald does play, look for the Saints to try and force Palmer to try and beat them with other players, while the pass rush pins their ears back and attacks a weak Cardinals protection scheme. Saints safety Roman Harper will unfortunately miss today’s game with a knee injury, carving out more playing time for Rafael Bush, along with Kenny Vaccaro likely taking more snaps at strong safety.
Rush Defense
The numbers suggest that the Saints run defense has played much worse than what they actually have. They’re allowing 5.3 yards per carry and while that’s certainly not great, it’s really come off of just a few big runs. Only three runs of 20+ yards come to mind, with the rest being small gains by opposing running backs. They’ve allowed 124 yards per game on the ground, which is 27th in the NFL. Steven Jackson got 50 of his 77 yards against the Saints on one run, while Doug Martin had two runs for 30+ yards last week. Although they definitely count, if you were to take those runs away, the Saints defense is allowing less than 4 yards per carry, which is much more accurate with their level of play so far.
Arizona has not run the ball very much so far this season with their new running back. Rashard Mendenhall has been a bit banged up, as he usually is, for both games of the season. They rank 20th in the NFL with 86.5 yards per game. Mendenhall is averaging a nice 4.1 yards per carry, but they haven’t really attempted to run the ball a whole lot. Whether it’s because of his nicks and bruises or not, they need to be more balanced.
With Mendenhall not being anywhere near the talent of Steven Jackson or Doug Martin, I don’t see him busting any big runs today. If the Saints defense can prevent Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald from stretching the field, the run defense should be able to keep the slow, hobbled running back at bay. If things go as I expect, the numbers will better suggest how well the rushing defense has played through the first two weeks. Don’t be surprised to see the Cardinals go with rookie running back Andre Ellington for another target out of the backfield if the Saints build a decent lead.
Players to Watch
Junior Galette
I’m expecting a big day from the Saints pass rush and it all starts with Junior. The Cardinals offensive line has struggled protecting Carson Palmer so far, so Galette should have plenty of opportunities. He’s the most athletic pass rusher the Saints have and I don’t expect him to stay quiet.
Parys Haralson
The veteran from San Francisco has looked pretty good so far since the Saints traded for him at the end of the preseason. He sacked Matt Ryan in Week 1 and made a few plays last week. He pressured Josh Freeman and had a highlight play, stuffing Doug Martin in the backfield for a multi-yard loss on one of his runs. Another week of practice means more familiarity, so he will continue to get better in this defense.
Rafael Bush
I’m very interested to see what Bush will do today. He’s not on this list because I predict a big game, but because he will be a bigger part of the defense. With Roman Harper out and Isa Abdul-Quddus still on the sideline dealing with a preseason injury, Bush will likely see more time in the Saints secondary. On early downs, the Saints will probably elect to stay with more two safety sets with Jenkins and Vaccaro. If and when they choose to go with three safety sets, as they often have, Bush will be the third safety. Keep an eye out for #25 to see if he can hold up to the expectations, rather than becoming a chink in the Saints’ armor.
Who Dat?!
