The New Orleans Saints, fresh off of a Monday Night beating of the Philadelphia Eagles, will look to achieve a winning streak for the first time all year as they face the divisional rival Atlanta Falcons this afternoon in the Superdome. In order to emerge victorious and get back into the NFC Wild Card picture, the Saints will need to improve upon a surprisingly good defensive performance from a week ago. That will be easier said than done, however, as the Falcons possess one of the league’s best overall offenses.
PASS DEFENSE
Stopping the opposing passer has been a problem for the Saints this season, but things seemed to have started to turn around last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. In that game, Michael Vick was able to throw for over 270 yards, but he was inefficient all evening due to consistent pressure from the New Orleans defensive line. Vick was sacked an eye-pooping seven times, appearing to be frazzled from start to finish.
A similar effort will be needed against Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons, who boast the league’s 7th best passing game, averaging 278.1 yards per game. Ryan, who received some MVP chatter earlier this year, continues to progress as a professional quarterback and seems to be jumping to the next level this season. A playoff win is needed for many to consider him in the class of elite quarterbacks, and the Falcons are primed for playoff success if the current winning streak continues.
Ryan’s success this year can be attributed in part to the talented tandem of Roddy White and Julio Jones at wide receiver. Both of these targets require much attention from any defense that they face, creating opportunities for other skill position players on the field. TE Tony Gonzales is a major beneficiary; even at this late stage in his career, Gonzales remains a excellent option in the middle of the field and in the end-zone.
If the Saints’ defensive front can generate a similar pass rush like they did against the Eagles, then watch out. It could be a long day for Matt Ryan. Outside pressure from Will Smith, Cameron Jordan, and Martez Wilson will do wonders for a secondary that will need all the help it can get against a talented Falcons’ receiving corps. A pass rush will also create turnovers, giving Drew Brees and the offense crucial extra possessions.
Stopping the big play is also an aspect of the Saints’ pass defense that requires special attention. New Orleans failed to combat this against the Eagles, giving up a long touchdown bomb to DeSean Jackson. Like Philadelphia, Atlanta has a deep threat combo at wide receiver in White and Jones. The biggest difference between the two teams is that Atlanta’s receivers are more physical and arguably more accomplished. A big game from Malcolm Jenkins will be needed, as he will be counted upon to adjust to deep routes in zone coverage. By limited the long play, the Saints’ defense can not only keep the yardage/opposing scoring down, but also gain confidence as the contest rolls along, something that really helped against the Eagles a week ago.
RUN DEFENSE
From a pure yardage perspective, the Atlanta Falcons’ running game is nowhere near as effective as it has been in seasons past. The team only gains an average of 98.5 yards per game on the ground this season, 25th in the NFL. Nonetheless, it remains effective. The team averages 3.9 yards per attempt on the ground, keeping the offense balanced. RB Michael Turner remains a physical force in the backfield, averaging 4 yards per carry this season and handling much of the load. The implementation of Jacquizz Rodgers as a change of pace, 3rd down pass catching option at tailback gives the Falcon offense more flexibility than it has in years past.
For the Saints, keeping the Atlanta running game at bay will depend on two major things. First, New Orleans will need to establish an early lead. If the Saints can go up by more than a touchdown in the first quarter, the Falcons’ offense will be forced to pass the ball more often, allowing for the New Orleans defense to rotate in more defensive backs and pass rushing defensive linemen.
Secondly, when the Falcons do decide to run the ball, proper tackling must be executed. Missed tackles and poor wrapping up of the ballcarrier have been major issues for the Saints’ defense all season. Opposing offenses have had success by gaining valuable yards after contact, making small gains turn into large, game-changing ones. The narrative on tackling (or lack thereof) will be the same against the Falcons, who boast both a physical presence in the backfield (Turner) and a quick, elusive one (Rodgers).
PLAYERS/COACH TO WATCH
DEs Will Smith and Cameron Jordan
The pressure from Smith and Jordan a week ago allowed the defense to play more aggressively, giving the secondary the confidence to play Philadelphia’s receivers tight. If the same can be accomplished this week, similar results should follow. Will Smith looked like his old self last week, emerging as a defensive difference maker by routinely getting in the backfield. Jordan, who might be the team’s most improved player from a year ago, has had two huge performances in back-to-back weeks.
CB Patrick Robinson
I have been sharply critical of the play of Patrick Robinson this season. Nonetheless, last week’s game changing interception provided a huge confidence boost for not only Robinson on a personal level, but the entire defensive unit. He has great ball skills (last week’s INT and the one against Green Bay immediately come to mind), but that often gets lost with blown coverages and mental errors.
Robinson’s development and progress as a player will be challenged greatly, as he will be called upon to matchup with either Roddy White or Julio Jones. It will be interested to see if Matt Ryan routinely looks for the receiver that Robinson is matched up against.
DC Steve Spagnuolo
The quickness of Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive adjustments will be a major storyline today, as the Falcons’ potent offense will surely attack the Saints’ defense’s weakest point. Knowing when and how to apply blitzes will be key, as open receiving lanes will be exposed by the talented Ryan. Spags needs to keep the game-plan simple and to make sure that his players avoid costly mistakes.
PREDICTION
I really think that the Falcons/Saints rivalry is one of the few (along with Steelers/Ravens and Jets/Pats) in the NFL where both teams truly despise one another. Every game is close and usually comes down to a 4th quarter possession. In this contest, Atlanta enters as arguably the best team in the league, while the Saints, even with a losing record, seem to have turned a corner last week on Monday Night Football.
This will be a close game throughout, and will possibly hinge on a key turnover. Last week, the Patrick Robinson interception for a touchdown opened the floodgates for the New Orleans defense, as they played with a renewed confidence all evening. If an early sack or turnover goes in the favor of the Saints, that could spark an inspired performance from the entire team. This squad knows that it is against the ropes, and should play that way for the remainder of the season.
Saints 31, Falcons 28
WHO DAT
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