Well, well, well. Look what the cat has dragged in to town. The Saints are set to square off with their most bitter rivals, as the undefeated Falcons travel to the Superdome this weekend. This matchup always provides fans with a playoff game atmosphere, even if both teams are playing poorly, which is hardly ever the case. Drew Brees made a small comment this week, mentioning how the Saints aren’t afraid of anyone, such as the 8-0 Falcons. These two teams flat out hate each other and they aren’t afraid to say it. Roddy White gave reporters his take on the rivalry this week.
“It’s just a special atmosphere when we play these guys. It’s just intense. We wanna win. They wanna win. They’ve won the division the last two out of three years. We won it the other year, so for the last couple of years, it’s been us and them down to the wire, so I think that’s what it is, just the dislike for each other. I don’t like nothing about the Saints.”
New Orleans is coming in to this game on a short week after Monday night’s victory against Philadelphia. The Saints sit at 3-5 overall and 1-1 in the division. Atlanta is the only team they’ve yet to play in the NFC South, as they look to take one more step closer to getting back to .500 on the year. The Saints sit at 5th in the league in total offense, three spots ahead of Atlanta.
It’s not very often that an undefeated team doesn’t get much respect. That especially goes for an undefeated team that is still unbeaten halfway through the season. That’s just the case for Atlanta, though, as they sit with a perfect 8-0 record overall, 1-0 in the NFC South. They’ve gained a bit more respect after their last two games, but going in to Week 8 as a 6-0 team, coming off of their bye, and playing a 3-3 Philadelphia Eagle team, not many gave them a chance. Experts based their predictions off of Andy Reid’s impressive 13-0 record when coming off of a bye, completely discounting what Atlanta was doing current day. Atlanta obviously went on to defeat Philadelphia in their most impressive game of the season, following that win with a low scoring defeat of the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night in Atlanta. Somehow, they’re still not getting as much respect as you’d come to expect for an 8-0 team.
In comparison, the Saints were heavy favorites in nearly every game they played during their 13 game win streak to open the 2009 season. That’s neither here nor there, though, because it’s hard to argue that the Falcons have been very impressive so far this year and it will be very fun to see them line up against a team who’d love nothing more than to end their hopes of perfection.
It’s nothing close to certain that the Saints can make a near improbable run to get in to the playoffs. It’s also nothing close to certain that the Falcons will repeat the first half of the season in their final eight games and go undefeated. If there’s one thing that is certain, though, it’s that this Sunday’s matchup in the Superdome will be one of the most entertaining, emotional, and hard fought games of the season for both teams’ players, coaches, and fans.
Pass Offense
Three weeks ago, Drew Brees threw for over 300 yards passing against the Buccaneers. IN THE FIRST HALF! Since then, he hasn’t eclipsed 240 yards in each of his last two games. One of those was in a loss, which the entire offense was out of sync. His 239 yard effort in the other game was mostly because the Saints rushing offense finally got going, which we’ll get to later.
You’d have to be a bold person to bet that Drew will go a third straight game with less than 300 yards passing. You’d have to be flat out crazy to bet that he’ll stay under 240 yards for a third straight game. Why, you ask? Because he’s Drew Brees. Of course there are a couple other reasons that we’ll discuss in a bit, but if you have a gullible friend whom isn’t a Saints fan, point out that he hasn’t thrown for more than 240 yards in his last two games vs. bad pass defenses, then bet him/her that he’ll break that streak this week. Maybe they’ll fall for it. Maybe they won’t. Here at Saints247, we’re just looking to help you out!
OK, time to get back on track. Atlanta’s pass defense is in the middle of the pack in the NFL. They rank 13 overall, allowing 228.8 yards passing per game. The Falcons are +8 in turnover differential this season. Of course there are a few factors that add to that number, such as their offense’s ability to protect the ball, but a big part of that number is the ten interceptions by their defense. Safety Thomas DeCoud leads the way with four of his own. Atlanta added Asante Samuel to their secondary this offseason, who’s a very talented corner back. He was an aging, overpaid player with a bit of a character issue with Philadelphia, but that’s what having Drew Brees in your division makes you do. Teams are more inclined to take a chance or over pay for a good defensive player in hopes that he can make a difference in slowing down the methodical surgeon of a quarter back that Drew is.
Samuel is having a decent season so far with one interception that he returned 79 yards for a touchdown. He also has five pass deflections. The Falcons pass defense will be flying around (no pun intended), hoping and waiting that Brees makes a mistake and they’ve been pretty good at making the plays this year when opportunities have presented themselves. Atlanta is also very good at creating pressure and getting sacks. They have 20 sacks on the season, with 7 of them coming from defensive end John Abraham. He is one of the best at getting to the passer, whether he gets the sack or simply disrupts the QB’s ability to throw a clean pass.
Let’s move on to why exactly Drew Brees is almost certainly going to get back over the 300 yard mark this Sunday. First, as mentioned before, the Atlanta pass defense falls in the middle of the pack. Drew Brees has the ability to make a good defense look bad. The chances of that happening increase when he is under the roof of the Superdome behind the NFL’s best fans. Second, the rushing game is typically absent against the Falcons. We’ll throw out a few numbers in the next section, but for whatever reason, no matter what the score, New Orleans always airs it out all game vs. Atlanta. Lastly, this game will be a shoot out. With the Saints defense on pace to literally be the worst defense to ever take the field, along with the Falcon’s new vertical passing offense under Dirk Koetter, this game very well has the possibility of producing dang near 1,000 total yards of offense combined. It’ll surely be a back and forth game all day and luckily Drew Brees plays for the good guys.
Rush Offense
The good news: the black and gold come in to this week’s game running the ball better than they have all season. The bad news: it doesn’t take much to be better than what they have been early in the season. In all seriousness, New Orleans ran the ball very well on Monday night. Their running backs combined for 141 yards rushing, second best to their 163 yard performance way back in Week 2 against Carolina. Chris Ivory made his season debut on Monday and boy did he impress. He seemed to give a spark to the other running backs, as they combined for a very balanced attack to help get the win. New Orleans was dead last in the league running the ball before the Monday night win, but with the performance they at least got out of last place and moved to 29th.
As decent as the Falcons pass defense has been, their run defense has been not so stellar. They rank 25th in the league, giving up 127.5 yards per game. It would be logical that their numbers in pass defense and run defense would be swapped, considering their opponents have played from behind in almost all of their games, but that’s not the case. They have done a better job stopping the run since their bye week, though. The last time they surrendered over a 100 yards rushing was to Oakland in Week 6. Atlanta will be without their leading tackler this week, as Sean Weatherspoon is still dealing with an ankle injury.
67, 29, 63, 30, 47, and 91. That is the number of yards for the Saints’ leading rusher in each of the last six games vs. the Falcons. They are in descending order based on the game’s date, so the 91 yard effort was in their first matchup back in 2009, when the Saints had their best rushing attack under Sean Payton. For whatever reason, New Orleans just doesn’t run the ball with great consistency when they play Atlanta. Based on what we’ve seen from the Saints’ ability, or lack thereof, to stop teams from picking up yards and scoring, don’t expect that to change on Sunday.
Players to Watch
Drew Brees
We talked about his last two games and what we expect him to do this week, but as he does many of times, Drew will have to put his team on his back for most of Sunday’s game. The Falcons have the best offense that New Orleans has seen all year, even better than the Broncos, so he will have to help them match what Matt Ryan and the Dirty Birds are doing. Atlanta will score a good bit of points, so it’ll be Drew’s job to keep pace.
Marques Colston
After a few huge games, Colston has cooled off a bit lately. He has 9 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. That’s certainly not bad at all, but he was only targeted four times last game and that will probably change this week. Each week it’s a crap-shoot trying to figure out who the Saints leading receiver will be and that’ll be no different this Sunday. Colston is great at stepping up in big moments and Drew will need that type of weapon more than ever this week.
Charles Brown
Brown will be getting his first start of the season, replacing injured Zach Strief at right tackle. Brown was a guy the Saints had high hopes for when they drafted him in the 2nd round of the 2010 NFL draft. They believed he could possibly be groomed in to their next left tackle to protect Drew’s blindside. He has been quite disappointing so far, but will have another chance to prove his worth on Sunday and possibly a few games after that as well. As mentioned, John Abraham leads the Falcons with seven sacks on the season and is a very dangerous player. While he primarily plays right defensive end against left tackles, he moves to the other side every once in a while and has the ability to do so very well. It’s quite possible that if LT Jermon Bushrod does a good job early of keeping Abraham at bay, Atlanta may move Abraham over to cross face with Brown. Regardless of whether it’s Abraham or someone else that he’s blocking, he will need to play one of his best games to keep Drew Brees safe from harm’s way.
Prediction
If it wasn’t obvious from what has become my longest preview of the season, I am very excited about this game. I’m excited about every game the Saints play, but this one has me ready to go. It’s something about the combination of the easy-to-hate Falcons coming to town, along with the fact that they’re undefeated, and also along with the fact that even after how bad the start of the season was for the Saints, they still have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. Not only in my heart as a fan do I believe the Saints will win, but after lots of thought with my semi-biased brain, I also believe they hand Atlanta their first loss. It’ll be a tough one, but I believe these guys want this game more than any one else.
Saints – 41
Falcons – 38
Who Dat?!
