We’re two games in to this highly anticipated 2012 season and the Saints have nothing to show for it. As New Orleans turns their attention to Kansas City, they’ll face a team sitting in the same 0-2 hole as themselves. The theme for the first two games has been sloppy play, inconsistency, and big plays for the opponents. With Atlanta pulling out a victory on Monday night and improving to 2-0, it’s crucial that the black and gold get back on track to prevent putting themselves too far behind the 8-ball early in the season.
By looking at the stats, it would seem as if the offense was doing well, but that is not quite the case. During the first two games, the Saints have found themselves playing from behind for most of the game. This has led to an inflation in passing yards, but not the way New Orleans would like them to come. The Saints have turned the ball over 5 times already through two weeks, with 4 interceptions and 1 fumble. Kansas City has yet to force a turnover on defense, so it appears that something will have to give in this Week 3 matchup. Coaches, players, and fans can all agree that for the Saints to have a good week and notch their first victory of the season, the offense will have to be much more balanced as it was in 2011.
Pass Offense
As mentioned, the pass offense is statistically off to a good start. New Orleans is tied for 3rd in passing offense through the first two games, averaging 324.5 yards per game. What’s hidden in that high ranking is that Drew Brees’ completion percentage is an uncharacteristic 54.5%. He has been anything, but efficient, except for the opening drive of the game vs. Carolina last week, which led to a touchdown. Another factor that has played a part in the passing offense’s inefficiency so far is drops. There were two critical drops last week by Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore, both of which most likely would have resulted in touchdowns. Graham and Darren Sproles have been very active as usual, with Marques Colston and Lance Moore behind them in terms of catches. Other than Colston and Moore, there are only 3 receptions total from other Saints receivers.
Kansas City’s pass defense flip-flopped from Week 1 to Week 2. In their first game vs. Atlanta, Matt Ryan torched the Chiefs defense, throwing for 299 yards and 3 TDs, with 0 INTs. In Week 2 vs. Buffalo, the Chiefs held the Bills to 178 yards passing and 2 TDs, but again 0 INTs. The low passing numbers against Buffalo may be a little deceiving, as the Bills ran the ball extremely well from the opening whistle and never needed to rely on their passing attack.
When Drew Brees lines up vs. the Kansas City defense this Sunday, look for a much more efficient attack that will feature numerous receivers. Brees will have to be careful, though, as the Chiefs have a young star lining up at free safety in Eric Berry. With the high level of frustration floating around the team and the fan base, the Saints may come out firing on their first offensive drive of the game. During the last couple of seasons, the Saints have typically followed the same pattern early on in games at the Superdome. They’ll look to get the ball first, get the defense on their heels early by Brees finding 3 or 4 different receivers, get in to the red zone, and punch it in for a quick 6. If they are successful with that, they’ll begin to try establishing the run not soon after.
Run Offense
The Saints run offense has been pretty good when called upon so far this season. The problem is it hasn’t been able to be called upon very often. The constant playing from behind, sometimes by more than one score, has disallowed New Orleans to be able to establish a full game run attack. With that being said, Pierre Thomas had an excellent game last week vs. Carolina. He finished with 9 carries for 110 yards and a very impressive 12.2 yards per carry. Pierre has been a master at getting YAC (yards after contact), since he has been in the league. He continually keeps his legs churning and requires more than one defender to take him down. Mark Ingram, on the other hand, has been very pedestrian so far this year. He has recorded 22 carries, resulting in 68 yards and a measly 3.1 yards per carry. Darren Sproles has yet to carry the ball this year.
Just as the Kansas City pass defense flip-flopped between weeks 1 and 2, so has their run defense. In Week 1, they held Michael Turner to 32 yards rushing on 11 carries. As a whole, Atlanta carried the ball 23 times for 84 yards. In Week 2, Buffalo had much more success running the ball vs. Kansas City. C.J. Spiller blazed his way through the Chiefs defense for 123 yards on 15 carries and 2 TDs. The entire Bills run offense pulled together, eclipsing 200 yards rushing on the day. Overall, Buffalo is sitting at 27th in the league for their run defense.
Expect the Saints to be much more balanced on offense this week, which will lead to their best rushing performance of the young season. The Chiefs play a 3-4 base defense, which usually produces a better pass rush, but less of a successful run defense. Also with a 3-4 defense, the middle of the field could be a soft spot for Kansas City. Look for New Orleans to distribute carries to all three of their running backs early on. Not many spectators seem to be quite sure what the explanation for Sproles not having a carry through the first two games, but with a soft middle of the field, the Saints may look to run a couple draw plays. They’ll certainly look to run the draw, if the pass offense has early success and the Chiefs start sending pressure to try and throw off Drew Brees.
Players to Watch:
QB Drew Brees
Drew’s name could be put on this list every single week, quite frankly. His purpose on here for this contest is to watch for the old Drew that Saints fans have watched since 2006, but have yet to see this season.
Drew will look to get his completion percentage back near 70% and for that to happen, he’ll complete more short to intermediate passes. That will involve short passes out of the backfield, such as swing routes from Sproles and screens from Thomas. Brees should look for a couple slants from Colston and Moore. If Drew has success on these shorter routes, look for him to take a couple deep shots once the defense begins to creep up. Having Devery Henderson back this week will also help stretch the field, possibly leading to a deep pass or two to him and targets for Jimmy Graham deep down the seam.
RB Pierre Thomas
Pierre is coming off a fantastic game in the loss to Carolina. He bounced off of tacklers left and right, leading to tons of extra yardage. He did all of his damage on only 9 carries.
When the Saints attempt to establish the run game early, expect PT to be the man getting a lot of work. Regardless of how deep New Orleans’ running back core is, a performance such as Pierre’s last week can not be ignored. Not only does he deserve 15+ carries, it’s in the offense best interest to give them to him.
WR Marques Colston
The entire offense has been out of sync, but Colston’s timing with Brees has been the most noticeable. These two have developed an incredible pitch and catch relationship on the field, which is nearly impossible to stop when they are on the same page.
Colston is one the most productive 3rd down receivers in the league. There’s a reason that die hard Saints fans, including myself, can hear the voice of the Mercedes Benz Superdome’s play by play announcer, Jerry Romig, inside of their head each time Colston makes a big catch on 3rd down. He has 3 receptions for 62 yards on 3rd down through the first two games, one of which was the last second fumble just before he crossed the goal line in the 2nd quarter vs. Washington. The Saints are a weak 9/24 for a 37.5% 3rd down percentage so far. Watch for Drew get back in sync with Marques on their crucial conversion attempts this week.
LT Jermon Bushrod
The Saints offensive line as a unit has left Drew running for his life in their 0-2 start. They improved a bit last week, but the protection was not as good as usual. As a whole, the offensive line needs to produce a good pocket for Brees to throw from, because he is a bit undersized for a QB at 6’0”. What allows him to be so accurate, is Drew moves around in the pocket finding passing lanes, rather than looking straight over the offensive line, such as the 6’4” Tom Brady.
The reason Bushrod is a player to watch this week, is because you can expect the Chiefs to try and turn up the heat and get to Drew Brees. They only have 1 sack thus far and it’s apparent that the Saints have struggled in protection early on. Bushrod will need to be on his “A” game, because the Chiefs have one of the best pass rushing linebackers in the NFL in Tamba Hali. He is fast, agile, and can get to the QB in the blink of an eye. He has averaged 13.25 sacks in the last two years, earning every bit of the $60 million contract that the Chiefs rewarded him with last offseason. He will be coming from Drew’s blindside, so Bushrod will be tested early and often.
