Good morning and happy gameday! Today, the New Orleans Saints will look to stop a dangerous San Francisco 49er squad on the road. Much has been made this week of the matchup of the Saints offense vs. the Niners defense. Nonetheless, the matchup of Saints defense vs. Niners offense shouldn’t be overlooked. If the Saints want to come home with a victory, they will need to stop playmakers in both the passing and running games of San Francisco.
Pass Defense
New Orleans has had trouble stopping the pass this season. That might be the understatement of the year. The Saints allowed an average of 259.8 yards per game through the air during the regular season. Things didn’t improve last week, as the Lions’ Matthew Stafford torched the secondary for 380 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Luckily, the Saints won’t be facing a high-octane passing attack this week. San Francisco only averaged 183.1 yards per game passing this season (29th in the NFL). QB Alex Smith, considered by many to be a bust as the 1st overall pick in the 2005 Draft, has actually had a decent year. Smith has accounted for over 3100 yards, completed 61.3 percent of his passes, and thrown for 17 touchdowns this regular season. More importantly, Smith has only thrown seven interceptions. Limiting turnovers is paramount in Jim Harbaugh’s low risk, high reward offense.
Although the 49er passing attack doesn’t wow anyone statistically, it possesses some weapons that need to be accounted for. WR Michael Crabtree has had a very productive season, catching 72 passes for 874 yards and 4 touchdowns. TE Vernon Davis is extremely difficult to cover, and might be one of the fastest players at his position league-wide. WR Ted Ginn is a threat to score anytime he touches the ball; his world-class speed creates all sorts of matchup problems for opposing defenses.
Getting pressure on Smith early on will need to be a priority for the Saints defense. The San Francisco offensive line gave up 44 sacks this season, tied for the 7th most in the NFL. Look for Gregg Williams to send pressure at Smith from a multitude of different areas, especially from S Roman Harper, who led the Saints defense in sacks this season. If Smith gets rattled early on, the Saints’ chances of winning increase dramatically.
Run Defense
The Saints have been decent against the run this season, allowing an average of 108.6 yards per game on the ground (12th in the NFL). What is troubling, however, is the 5.0 yard per carry average that the Saints have surrendered this season. The interior of the defensive line just hasn’t played to the potential that everyone expected back in the early part of the season. This inconsistency doesn’t help the linebacking corps, which seems overwhelmed and can only be considered average at best.
San Francisco’s formula for offensive success? Run the ball. And then run it some more. San Fran ran the ball 498 times in 2011, good enough for the third most attempts by any team this season. 49er running backs ran for 127.8 yards per game this year during the regular season, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt during that span. RB Frank Gore continues to be the focal point of this ball-control offense, as he gained over 1200 yards in his 7th season.
The 49ers are very successful running the ball thanks to a very talented interior offensive line. Former Saints C Jonathan Goodwin has had another solid year. LG Mike Iupati has the potential to be an all-pro lineman for years to come. LT Joe Staley is very good in run blocking, opening up running lanes to the outside.
Consistency and gap coverage along the line will be the formula for success in stopping the dangerous San Francisco ground game. DTs Aubrayo Franklin, Shaun Rogers, and Sedrick Ellis need to have good games in order for New Orleans to win. A good game from these guys might not reflect in a statistical sense, but plugging up running lanes will allow the linebackers to get to the ballcarrier with greater ease. Avoiding offsides and encroachment penalties are also important in this one, where points (and yards) will be at a premium.
Matchup(s) to Watch
Saints DTs vs. 49ers Interior Offensive Line. This might be the matchup of the game defensively for the Saints. The lifeblood of the 49er offense is in running the ball. Establishing the line of scrimmage and creating defensive line penetration will allow the Saints to stop San Francisco’s run game, effectively forcing Alex Smith to make throws down the field. If the Saints can even slow down the running game of the 49ers, that would be huge in trying to win this one.
S Roman Harper vs. TE Vernon Davis. The biggest threat from the 49er skill position set in the passing game is TE Vernon Davis. Stopping him will probably be the task of SS Roman Harper. Davis serves as a security blanket for Smith in the 49er offense, and his speed provides a mismatch against most linebackers and safeties. Harper will need to jam him at the line, getting him off of his intended route and affecting the timing between quarterback and receiver.
RB Kendall Hunter vs. Saints Linebackers. RB Frank Gore gets most of the attention as the main ballcarrier for the 49er offense, and with good reason. But don’t overlook the speedy Hunter, a rookie from Oklahoma State who spells Gore and serves as a change of pace back. Hunter averages 4.2 yards per carry, and, standing at only 5’7”, can hide behind taller blockers as he runs. Saints linebackers will need to locate him quickly and bring him down on the first tackle. If the Saints can stop Hunter, Gore will fatigue quickly due to overuse in the running game. This will benefit the run defense to a greater extent, and lead to a Saints road playoff win.
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