Image by Ken Lund from Las Vegas, Nevada, USA [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Saints Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
Whether or not it was the disastrous ending to the 2014 season that lost the attention of many, the New Orleans Saints quietly finished with the #1 ranked offense in the NFL. They finished with an average of 411.4 yards per game, while also scoring 25.1 points per contest, 9th best in the league. How was that only good enough for a 7-9 ranking? Well, we’ll get to that later on when we discuss the defense. Part of the problem, though, was that the Saints finished second to last in turnover margin at -13. It’s impossible to succeed when you lose the turnover battle, something that Coach Sean Payton stresses to his players, coaches, and even the media on a weekly basis. New Orleans did finish with the league’s top third down conversion percentage, as well, converting 48.3% of their attempts. Sadly, though, the positives were not enough to overcome the turnovers, lack of takeaways, and poor defensive play.
The Arizona Cardinals season was a bit of anomaly when you try to analyze both their offensive and defensive stats. Starting quarterback Carson Palmer only played in six games, leaving the Cardinals struggling to do much of anything on offense in his absence. We’ll specifically talk about their offense later, but I wanted to bring it up now, because many don’t realize how an injury to an impact player on a team’s offense can send shock waves and greatly disrupt the defense, as well. When Palmer was healthy, the Cardinals defense was a top five unit. But, with Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley taking reps at the quarterback position, the Cardinals offense struggled to move the ball and control possession, leaving their defense out to dry and putting them on the field for the majority of games. One doesn’t need to be told that a situation such as that causes the defense to become very tired and easier to beat. Due to those factors, Arizona finished the season with the 24th best defense, allowing 368.2 yards per game. They held their own in the scoring category, giving up 18.7 points per game, which was 5th in the NFL.
Pass Offense
Though watching Drew Brees with the naked eye can allow you to realize that his age is starting to show at times, he continues to produce. He led the Saints to the 3rd best passing offense in the NFL, averaging 297.8 yards per game. He personally finished the year tied with Ben Roethlisberger for most passing yards in the league, averaging 310 yards per game. Let me quickly explain how those two numbers could differ, because I know it can be confusing. The yardage lost when a quarterback is sacked is subtracted from the total amount of passing yards the team has. So, basically, Brees was sacked an average of 12.2 yards per game. Though he was only sacked 30 times (21st most) last year, pass protection has still been a big point of emphasis, because there were plenty of other times that pressure caused Brees to miss throws. You have to remember that he is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the league and he’ll do his best to get rid of the ball before going down.
We know what the Saints will get from Brees, but it’s who will be on the other end of his passes that is one of the biggest questions heading into the year. Jimmy Graham led the Saints in receptions and Kenny Stills led them in receiving yards a year ago, but both are now wearing different uniforms. Of those returning, Marques Colston had the most receptions (59), receiving yards (902), and touchdowns (5). If you read yesterday’s bold predictions, you already know who I believe is going to soak up a lot of the lost production from Graham and Stills: Brandin Cooks. Cooks’ rookie season was cut short due to a broken thumb that sidelined him for the final six games of the 2014 season. He did flash promise, though, hauling in 53 receptions, 550 yards, and 3 touchdowns through the air. I’m expecting those numbers to double this year. Other contributors that you can expect to see catching passes from Brees include, second year player Brandon Coleman, rookie Willie Snead, and tight-ends Ben Watson and Josh Hill. Once healthy, C.J. Spiller will play the Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles role, which you may also see played by rookie Marcus Murphy from time to time.
Of the many facets of the Arizona Cardinal team that struggled when Carson Palmer didn’t play, their pass defense seemed to fall the most. With a secondary that was made up of Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu, Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie, Deone Bucannon, and Rashad Johnson, the Cardinals finished with the league’s 29th best pass defense, allowing 259.5 yards per game through the air. They also finished just 24th with 35 sacks. Strong safety Rashad Johnson led the team with four interceptions, followed by former LSU Tiger Patrick Peterson, who had three of his own. Cornerback Jarraud Powers also added three interceptions and is now the team’s #2 cornerback following Rodgers-Cromartie’s departure. Outside linebacker Alex Okafor led the team in sacks with 8.0, while star defensive end Calais Campbell had 7.0 of his own.
I don’t expect the Saints to line up against the Cardinals pass defense that struggled so much a year ago. Between all of the guys I’ve already mentioned, there’s a lot of talent in that unit. We already know that whoever Peterson is covering will have a tough time getting open, but Brees will have to be careful with guys that have a knack for getting to the ball such as Mathieu. We know what New Orleans will get out of Colston and Cooks, but it’s tough to know exactly how this passing attack will look with the other guys seeing their biggest roles of their careers. If the Saints offensive line can give Brees time to throw, they should be just fine.
Run Offense
Coming off of a decent year running the ball, New Orleans is looking to attack on the ground even more. They finished 13th in the league, averaging 113.6 yards per game on the ground in 2014. Every move the Saints made this off-season was done with the intention of bolstering the rushing attack moving forward. They traded Drew Brees’ top receiving target from the past four seasons for one of the best centers in the NFL in Max Unger, they traded their most productive receiver for defensive help, they used the 13th overall pick on an offensive tackle, and they signed Mark Ingram to a four-year, $16 million contract. In thirteen games last year, Ingram averaged 74.2 yards per contest, which was 7th best among running backs on a per-game basis. He also added nine touchdowns and finished his second consecutive season with yards per rush average over target number of 4.0. The Saints didn’t sign him to a long-term contract for him to share carries, so look for him to be the bell-cow behind the improved offensive line. With so many red-zone touchdowns leaving for Seattle with Jimmy Graham, I expect Ingram’s touchdown total to jump up a significant amount, as well.
Arizona was much better at stopping the run than the pass, finishing 13th in the league with an average of 108.7 yards per game. Safeties Rashad Johnson and Deone Bucannon combined for 174 tackles, but they lost their second leading tackler Larry Foote. To replace him, the Cardinals signed former NFC South rival Sean Weatherspoon, hoping he can shake off his bad plague of injuries and produce what everyone knows he’s capable of. If you’re talking about great tackling from the safety position, you have to mention Tyrann Mathieu, who has the ability to come down from his position and stop a runner in his tracks.
The Saints’ chances of going into Arizona and pulling off the Week 1 upset as an underdog will greatly rely on their ability to move the ball on the ground. We’ve already talked about how they want to attack more with the rushing game in general, but it’s essential when playing a good team on the road. This becomes even more essential considering you have guys like Brandon Coleman and Willie Snead seeing their first taste of real NFL football.
Saints Defense vs. Cardinals Offense
Following a 2013 campaign that saw new Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan’s unit finish in the top five in the NFL, there were high hopes for 2014. Those high hopes took an immediate shot when Matt Ryan opened the season throwing for 448 yards and three touchdowns against the Saints in Week 1 last year. Things didn’t get any better from there on out, especially after seeing their prized free agent signing Jairus Byrd go down with a torn meniscus in practice heading in to Week 5. Cam Jordan, Kenny Vaccaro, and Junior Galette all took a step back from stellar 2013 campaigns. The team finished with the 31st ranked defense, allowing a whopping 384.0 yards per game, along with 26.5 points per contest, which was 28th in the league. Their biggest regression was their ability to get to opposing quarterbacks, only coming up with 34 sacks, compared to 49 from the year before. Less pressure on the quarterback generally means less takeaways, of which New Orleans was only able to force 17 all season.
As I mentioned earlier, you don’t have to look any further then the six games in which Carson Palmer played last year to figure out what to expect for this coming season. When he played, Arizona went 6-0. Without him, they were 5-5. Overall, they finished with the 24th ranked offense, gaining 319.8 yards per game. They also finished 24th in scoring, putting up 19.4 points per contest. It’s simple, when Palmer played, they moved the ball. When he didn’t, they struggled and it also affected their defense, as we talked about before. Palmer is fully recovered from his torn ACL and says he feels better than ever, so this offense is hoping they can reproduce what they did at full health just a year ago.
Pass Defense
There wasn’t one area of the Saints defense that didn’t look like anything short of a debacle last year. I’ll give you the numbers, but everything was simply just bad. The pass defense finished 25th in the league, allowing 251.2 yards per game and intercepting just 12 passes. Like I mentioned earlier, their biggest fallback was not being able to get to the quarterback, allowing passers tons of time to scan the field and find an open target.
The only bright spot was Keenan Lewis, who even battled through a knee that was swollen to the size of a softball in one game. Unfortunately, Lewis will miss the first few games as he recovers from hip surgery following the team’s third preseason game. Jairus Byrd will also watch from the sideline…or on a TV….or from space…or wherever exactly he’s been hiding since training camp started.
There is some excitement regarding the defense though, as three new notable players have us eager to see what they can do in pass defense. Veteran Brandon Browner signed a three-year contract with the Saints in the off-season, having played on the past two Super Bowl Champion teams. Hau’oli Kikaha was the Saints’ 2nd round selection out of Washington, who led the NCAA with 19 sacks in 2014. And finally, New Orleans native Delvin Breaux has fought his way back from a broken neck in 2006 to finally complete his dream of making it to the NFL. With Lewis out, Breaux will step in to the #2 cornerback position behind Browner and have a chance to make an immediate impact.
In the six games that Carson Palmer played in, he averaged 271 yards a game through the air, which was 8th most among quarterbacks on a per-game basis. He was having one of his most efficient seasons, having thrown 11 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. The Cardinals have a trio of receivers for him to throw to in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. Fitzgerald is the veteran who continues to produce whenever the ball gets to him, as he caught 63 passes for 784 yards and 2 touchdowns last year. Michael Floyd led the Cardinals with 841 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, but is questionable to play following hand surgery earlier in the preseason. He practiced in limited fashion all week and will come down to a game-time decision. Young, dynamic receiver John Brown is fully capable of stepping up if needed, as he chipped in for 48 receptions, 696 yards, and 5 touchdowns in 2014. Arizona has two new tight-ends to make note of, one of whom was just signed this past week after being cut by the Detroit Lions, Joseph Fauria. The other, Jermaine Gresham, actually worked out for the Saints during the summer and seemed close to signing with the team, but instead headed off to Arizona.
Whether or not Michael Floyd plays will make a huge difference in this match-up. If he does, a cornerback such as Brian Dixon, Damian Swann, or Kyle Wilson will have the tough task of covering John Brown in the slot. Swann is probably the most talented out of the three, but he’s also the least experienced. If Floyd misses the game, the Saints can lock Fitzgerald down with Browner and Brown with Breaux and let the flow be decided by who makes the most plays. Palmer has typically struggled against pressure in his career, so it’ll be crucial for guys like Cam Jordan, Akiem Hicks, and Hau’oli Kikaha to get in to the backfield and not allow him much time.
Run Defense
Last season was just another year that the Saints struggled to stop the run. They finished 29th in the league, giving up a whopping 132.8 yards per contest on the ground. Leading tackler and quarterback of the defense Curtis Lofton is no longer with the team, but New Orleans replaced him with rookie first round draft pick Stephone Anthony, who already looks like he has what it takes to be a play maker in the NFL at middle linebacker. Kenny Vaccaro won’t be able to play down closer to the line of scrimmage quite as much until Byrd is on the field, but he will always be around the ball on running plays, though he needs be better at tackling than what he showed last year.
Arizona’s rushing attack is led by Andre Ellington, who struggled in 2014 with a 3.3 yards per carry average, amassing just 660 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns. He’s almost more of a threat as a pass catcher, considering he’s best when he’s in open space. That production from Ellington was part of what led to the league’s 31st ranked rushing offense, mustering up just 81.8 yards per game. Big free agent acquisition Mike Iupati was brought in at guard to help the Cardinals offensive line, but is out to start the season due to knee surgery.
Unless the Cardinals gouge the Saints early on with their running game, I expect them to lean more on Palmer and the passing attack to win them the game. That will especially hold true if New Orleans is able move the ball and control the clock with consistency, while putting up points and keeping pressure on the Arizona offense. When they do run the ball, the defensive line is going to have to do better at not allowing runners to consistently get to the second level of their defense, namely Cam Jordan, Akiem Hicks, Kevin Williams, and John Jenkins. Williams, one of the best defensive tackles in the game over the past decade, was brought in for this reason and showed he still has some left in the tank with a solid preseason. Look for his potential to create penetration and blow up a few running plays.
Prediction
NFL games in general are typically very tough to predict, but the first few games are even tougher. There’s only so much you can expect based off of what you see in training camp and preseason games. There’s a fine line between what will surely carry over and what was done against an opponent who’s only giving about 75% effort at most because the game doesn’t matter. I’m thinking that 11-5 or 10-6 is a very possible outcome if this team can come together early enough to not fall too far below .500 out of the gates, but I still think there are a few too many question marks to confidently say that I believe the Saints will go into Arizona and come out with a road victory to start the year. I could certainly see it happening, but about 60% of me sees the black and gold falling just short in a close game as they work through some early season injuries on the defense. I hope I’m wrong, because it would be great to head into two huge early season divisional games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers with a win already in the books.
Prediction: Cardinals – 27 Saints – 23
Regardless of the outcome, I hope you enjoy the game and feel as if this preview properly prepared you for what to expect. Please join us in the comments to let us know your predictions. We’ll see you guys again tomorrow evening for the post-game wrap-up.
As always, Who Dat?!
