The Saints head in to their first prime-time game of the season with their Monday night game against the Dolphins. Both teams come in to the game at 3-0, feeling pretty good about the start to their season. The Saints are coming off of a 31-7 victory against the Cardinals, where they cruised to an easy win behind a strong defensive performance. The Dolphins arrive in New Orleans fresh off of a 27-23 last minute victory against our rival Falcons. Fans likely remember these teams’ last match-up very well, coming back in 2009. The Saints stormed back from a 21 point first half deficit to defeat the Dolphins 46-34 on their way to a 6-0 start. Miami leads the all-time match-up with a 6-4 record.
Drew Brees led a furious comeback in Miami back in 2009.
The Saints offense got back on track last Sunday on their way to an easy 31-7 victory over the Cardinals. Drew Brees looked as much like himself as he has all year, despite the stats not necessarily saying so. His completion percentage was lower than it was in Week 1’s victory, but his accuracy, decision making, and overall sharpness was much better. He leads a Saints offense who comes in to Week 4 with the 7th best unit in the NFL, gaining just over 400 yards per game. The ground attack has been non-existent through three games and against a pretty good Dolphins defense, that may not change. New Orleans comes in to this week with a very nice early season cushion in the NFC South, leading the Panthers and Falcons by two games.
Although the Saints’ 3-0 start has not surprised many, despite missing the playoffs in ’12, the Dolphins’ 3-0 start is a bit of a surprise. They’d love nothing more to improve to 4-0 for the first time since Don Shula was pacing the sidelines in Miami. Not that they aren’t getting respect after three games, but an upset win in prime-time in New Orleans would shock the country. They’re coming off of a dramatic victory against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3. Miami scored the go-ahead touchdown with :38 to play, sending the Falcons to a 1-2 record. They sit tied atop the AFC East with the New England Patriots.
Pass Offense
Surprisingly, the Saints pass offense sits 4th in the NFL. It’s not surprising based on the offense itself, but based on their performance thus far. Last week was much better, but they were clearly off in the first two weeks. In Week 1, Brees struggled with his accuracy, while the entire offense was slow in Week 2. Although the points have been lower, especially in the red-zone, the yards are very much there. Brees is 4th in the NFL in passing yards with 1,021 through three games. He also has 6 touchdowns, along with 4 interceptions, while having a 63.8 completion percentage. Jimmy Graham has been even more unstoppable than in years past and comes in to Week 4 ranked 3rd in the NFL in receiving with 358 yards on 23 receptions and 4 touchdowns. The wide receivers have been fairly quiet so far, reeling in just 25% of Brees’ completions.
Miami’s pass defense comes in ranked 21st in the NFL, allowing 263.3 yards per game. They are tied for 3rd with 5 interceptions so far. Their talented front seven is very good at putting pressure on the quarterback and is averaging 3 sacks a game so far. Standout defensive end Cameron Wake is their most talented pass rusher, but he is questionable to play on Monday night. He missed their game against Atlanta last week with a knee injury.
Although the Dolphins defense is pretty decent, they should have no problem moving the ball through the air if Drew Brees is playing well. The Saints are hoping that Wake sits out this game as well, seeing the pass protection has allowed 10 sacks on Brees so far. All-Pro guard Jahri Evans is questionable to play and is in danger of missing his second straight game. His rookie backup Tim Lelito is also questionable to play with a calf injury. Seeing as the struggling offensive line isn’t getting any healthier, fans should prepare themselves for the possibility of another multi-sack game of Brees, regardless if Cameron Wake plays or not.
Rush Offense
Once again, the Saints have provided not a semblance of a rushing attack. It’s been three weeks and they have yet to get it together. The absence of Evans certainly hurts, but he was playing during their weak performances in the first two games. Mark Ingram looks to be missing his second straight game with a toe injury after another week of no practice. Khiry Robinson could be the most interesting player in the running game, coming off of a 4 carry, 38 yard performance in limited work late in last Sunday’s game. The rushing offense ranks 24th in the league with 85.7 yards per game so far.
Miami’s rush defense steps in with the 18th ranked unit so far in 2013. They’ve allowed 108.7 yards per game so far. Not that the Saints have a work horse running back, but the Dolphins haven’t faced too much competition at the position so far. Trent Richardson was their toughest match-up in Week 1 and it’s obvious just how he really fit in with Cleveland after they traded him prior to last week’s games. Last week vs. Atlanta, they faced a Falcons team that was missing Steven Jackson, but struggled to slow down backups Jaquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling.
It’s possible to run on the Dolphins, but the Saints aren’t the offense you’d believe will be able to prove that. The aforementioned Khiry Robinson is the most interesting offensive player, due to his fabulous cameo in last week’s game. With the way things have gone on the ground so far, you’d have to think that Coach Payton can’t ignore his performance and attempt to see what he’s got in Robinson. He could turn in to the next Chris Ivory, providing a set of fresh, energetic legs to pop defenses for chunks of yardage as they are tiring. If the Saints can establish a lead as they did last week, look for Payton to give the young man a few extra carries and see if last week was a fluke.
Players to Watch
Drew Brees
With the way the running game is going, Brees will be forced to lead this offense week in and week out. He and Jimmy Graham have essentially carried the offense on their backs through the 3-0 start. Although last week was a much better game, it’s far from the best performance he’ll put up this year. I’ll be watching the little things in his game such as his confidence in his pass protection and see if he can avoid the rushers to find open receivers.
Khiry Robinson
I’m sure this one comes as no surprise, but I’m very interested to see how the rookie follows his short, but successful stint in the line-up last week. I believe there are two things inside of his head going in to tomorrow. First, he wants to prove that his 38 yards on 4 carries was no fluke. Second, as anyone with vision can see, the Saints run game needs help. The question will be, can he provide it?
Kenny Stills
Stills is a player to watch, because Lance Moore is unlikely to play due to a wrist injury. He didn’t practice all week, which means he’ll likely sit, despite his questionable status. We’ve seen Stills’ ability to go deep, but he certainly fits the mold of Moore with his quickness in underneath routes. If Moore doesn’t play, Stills will see a lot of his routes and will likely share his targets with Darren Sproles.
Prediction
If this were a normal noon game on a Sunday afternoon, I’d think Miami had more of a chance. That’s not the case, so I don’t see many, if any at all, circumstances where the Dolphins walk out of the Superdome with a 4-0 record. The Saints, under Sean Payton, in prime-time, and at home, are nearly unbeatable. I expect that to remain the same as they stay unbeaten.
Saints – 27
Dolphins – 13
Who Dat?!
