Away we go. Welcome to the the first weekly preview of the 2013 season. I suppose this isn’t some huge, glamorous red-carpet event, but it does mean that Saints football is back! What better way to open the new season, then with at home match-up against the rival dirty birds? I can’t think of anything better! OK, I’ll stop hyping this article now, but just know that this guy is like a kid in a candy store. Like a fat kid with chocolate cake. Like a…you get the point. Moving on!
Jimmy Graham always seems to have a field day against the dirty birds.
This will be the seventh time the Saints open their season against Atlanta. Unfortunately, they are 0-6 in those match-ups. The good news is the last time they played in the opener was 1986, so it’s safe to say things have changed since then. This opener isn’t as exciting as it is just because it’s the Falcons, though. It’s the first game back after a bitter 7-9 season. It’s also the first opportunity to see Rob Ryan’s new 3-4 defense for a real game. Still, none of those reasons are as big as the next one. Sean Payton returns. He himself, along with the players, and the other coaches have all said that it’s nice to have him back, but Sunday is just business as usual and they won’t be thinking about payback or proving a point. I don’t buy it. I expect Payton to come out firing early and often and I’ll tell you why.
Pass Offense
The high flying aerial attack of the New Orleans Saints is back with two new weapons and a familiar face. Kenny Stills and Nick Toon join the receiving core and look to hit the ground running after an impressive preseason. Stills is a rookie wide-receiver from Oklahoma University, whom the Saints drafted with their 5th round pick in 2013. Although Toon was drafted in the 4th round in 2012 out of Wisconsin, he is essentially a rookie after sitting out the entire ’12 season with an injury. The familiar face that will be back on the field is Robert Meachem. He spent 2012 with the San Diego Chargers, but after a less than impressive season, followed by a bad preseason, Meachem was cut by the Chargers this past week. He wasn’t unemployed for long, as his phone was ringing the next day to come back to New Orleans. Those three will join the familiar faces of Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Jimmy Graham. Graham is back at 100% health after dealing with a wrist injury all through 2012. He only missed one game, but it was obvious that it was bothersome when he played through it, leading to some uncharacteristic drops. One face from 2012 that we won’t see is Joseph Morgan, who tore his ACL early in training camp. Get well soon, Joe.
The Falcons pass defense remains mostly the same under Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan. Thomas DeCoud, William Moore, and Asante Samuel all return to the Falcons secondary in 2013. The one new face is rookie Desmond Trufant. Trufant was selected 22nd overall with the Falcons’ first round draft pick out of the University of Washington. He is the little brother of NFL veteran Marcus Trufant, so corner-back runs in his blood. This secondary gave the Saints passing attack issues in the last meeting between the teams in a Week 13 Thursday night match-up last year. They not only picked off Drew Brees five times, but they ended his record 54 straight games with a touchdown pass. William Moore accounted for two of Brees’ five interceptions in what was a very tough night for the Saints. Osi Umenyiora is the newest addition to Atlanta’s defensive line, replacing long time Falcon John Abraham. He was a dominant pass rusher a few years ago with the Giants, but don’t expect the Saints to be too scared of the 31 year old who looks to be just entering the downside of his career
A new season means a clean slate and I expect Drew and the passing attack to be up to their old tricks when they step on the field Sunday. Jimmy Graham creates match-up problems for every team, but especially the Falcons. Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and even Darren Sproles out of the backfield will attract attention as always, seeing as the Falcons are very familiar with this passing attack. The two youngsters in the receiving core could very well get the chance to step up early, as Atlanta will have next to nothing to prepare for them. Sure they aren’t superstars in their own right, but Drew Brees has the ability to make guys much better than they are. Robert Meachem is a prime example.
There are three main things I expect to see from the Saints passing game. The first two are what I already mentioned in Jimmy Graham being a nightmare for the Falcons and the Stills/Toon combo surprising Atlanta. The third and most likely scenario, is Drew Brees attacking the rookie corner-back. Brees hasn’t gotten to where he is in his career by just whipping balls around to open receivers. He’s extremely smart. It’s a part of his game that makes up for his under-sized stature for the QB position. He is a student of the game and knows exactly where his weaknesses are. In a pretty good secondary that has proven they can give Drew problems, the rookie is his attacking point. Keep an eye from play to play on whoever Trufant is lined up against.
Rush Offense
The same familiar faces return to the Saints backfield, minus one man who embarrassed the Falcons in the first match-up in 2012. Chris Ivory was part of a draft night trade to the New York Jets, in which the Saints received the 3rd round pick that they selected John Jenkins with. Ivory was a very nice player to plug in at times, but his absence shouldn’t be missed too much if Mark Ingram can continue to improve his game. Ingram is said to be as healthy as he has been since coming in to the NFL and probably even dating back to before his 2010 junior season at Alabama. I expect a big leap in production from Ingram this season and he will show why Payton jumped back in to the first round to take him in 2011. Darren Sproles will also be a large beneficiary of Sean Payton’s return. Coach Payton is the mastermind that finds the best ways to use his weapons and Sproles is a dangerous one. Pierre Thomas showed that he is still dangerous when he took a pass out of the backfield 50+ yards for a touchdown in the 3rd preseason game vs, Houston.
Atlanta was less than stellar in 2012 against the run. They finished the season ranked 21st in rush defense. There isn’t much to look at here, as their defense is mostly the same. Trufant and Umenyiora are the two biggest additions, but they are both a bigger part of the passing game. The Falcons rush defense will largely depend on their offense’s ability to move the ball and put points on the board, which will determine whether the Saints offense will be able to control the clock or if they will have to play in shoot-out mode.
Unless the new defense struggles and Atlanta moves the ball up and down the field, the Saints will try to establish a solid running game. The biggest way to improve a defense is of course on the defensive side, but the offense’s ability to control the clock and keep their own defense off the field is largely important. I believe the Saints aren’t foolish enough to believe that they now have a top-10 defense, so against a high powered offense such as the Falcons, they’ll try to slow the game down if they can. They’ll establish a run, while taking shots (especially at Trufant) and the two will feed off of each other. If they are able to get the running game going, the Atlanta defense will be in a state of flux trying to decide whether to step up and defend the run or drop 7 or 8 back in coverage, which is where Ingram and Thomas will churn out the yardage.
Players to Watch
Mark Ingram
I’m sure you can tell from my season preview and from what I’ve said so far in this article, that I’m not shying away from betting big on Mark Ingram. Between his full health and having Sean Payton back in control, I believe he steps up big. Payton was the number one reason that the Saints traded back in to the first round of the 2011 draft to select Ingram, so I trust what he saw in him. Also, look for Ingram to be a bigger part of the passing game this year. If the preseason was any sort of preview, the Saints are looking to get him more involved out of the backfield.
Kenny Stills
I reserve the right to say that I may be over-stating what a rookie wide-receiver can come in and do in this offense, but there has to be a reason that the Saints utilized Stills so much this preseason. They obviously see something in him. After he dropped his first pass in the first preseason game, he did nothing but impress the rest of the way. He was in there with the first team throughout all of their snaps. Drew was looking for him often and most importantly, he was looking for him in the red-zone. With Stills being a bit of a mystery, he could slip in and out of coverage with ease early on.
Jimmy Graham
This is one of those, “Well yeah!” predictions, but Graham gives the Falcons nightmares. Unfortunately, Tony Gonzales does the same to us, so these games often turn out to be a battle of the tight-ends in an “anything you can do, I can do better” showdown. Like I said, Graham is 100% healthy and has another full season of football and another full off-season under his belt. He’ll again create problems in the middle of the field and will be the toughest man to cover. You can go ahead and anticipate my usual line when Graham comes down with a touchdown reception on Sunday. “Ji…..”, never mind, I’ll save it for Sunday on Twitter (unintentional chance to mention my twitter handle @DCBilliotJr6 if you’d like to follow me for my thoughts and ramblings during the games).
Prediction
I said off the record last year that I didn’t see any way that a rookie stepped in to the Superdome for his first start and beat a New Orleans team that was fuming about the loss of their coach going in to the first game of the season. Thankfully, that was before the great Joe Gerrity brought me on to write for this site, so my bad prediction isn’t documented, until now I suppose. Anyways, although I believe Atlanta is a very good football team, Sean Payton has their number. Pair that with all of the reasons I stated about this game being so highly anticipated and I believe you have a formula for the Saints to come out on top. I think this game will be neck and neck for three quarters, with the Saints pulling away for good mid-way through the 4th. Prepare yourselves, Saints fans, the new season is finally here.
Saints – 38
Falcons – 27
Who Dat?!
