The wait is over. The long anticipated Week 1 match-up versus the rival Falcons is upon us. We’ll get more in to the outlook Sunday’s game in the next few days, but for now we are going to preview the 2013 season as a whole.
The Saints return to the field could not come soon enough after a bitter end to the 2012 Payton-less campaign. At 7-9 and 3rd place in the NFC South, New Orleans fell well short of expectations. Even without their head coach, many hoped (and prayed) that the Saints would make a run at the Superbowl and be the first organization to ever play in the big game, while being the host city. After the 0-4 start, most realized that those aspirations were indeed just a pipe dream.
He’s back!
The nightmare of seeing a sideline that’s missing the heart and soul of this organization is finally over. Between a large defensive makeover and the sight of a familiar face back wearing his visor and headset, we are on the eve of a new dawn.
Offensive Season Predictions
Not-So-Bold
–Drew Brees’ pass attempts and interceptions will come down, while his completion percentage will shoot back up. Thoughts: Sean Payton and the offense will make a concerted effort to get back to a consistent running game. Last year’s struggle on the ground proved two things. First, passing plays were more predictable, leading to a lot more incomplete passes and interceptions due to the defense knowing what was coming. Second, the more the Saints defense was on the field, the uglier things got.
-Darren Sproles will see 180 touches, including at least 80 carries. Thoughts: Sproles was wildly misused last season. His 48 carries last season were nearly down to half of what he had in 2011. It became obvious that when he was in the game, the Saints were throwing. When a fan watching from home or the stands can correctly predict run or pass based on which running back is in the game, you can bet the professional coaches and players can do so as well. The element of surprise was what made him so much more effective in 2011, when he had just as many carries as catches.
-Jimmy Graham catches 100 passes and 12 touchdowns. Thoughts: There are two reasons I see this happening: health and more experience. Graham is finally back to 100% after playing through 2012 with a wrist injury. He only missed one game last season, but he played with the injured wrist for the final 10 games. As for the experience, he is entering only his fifth year of football of his life. With another full season of tape for him to look back on and another full off-season, he will only continue to get better.
Bold
-The Saints will be +10 in turnover differential. Thoughts: The differential will be affected by both sides of the ball, but the number that will be easiest to change is interceptions on the offensive side. As I said earlier, I believe Brees will cut down on the picks, as the offense finds a more balanced attack.
-Mark Ingram will average 4.5 yards per carry on close to 200 carries, while catching 25-30 passes. Thoughts: Health is the number one factor here. All reports have indicated that Ingram is as healthy as he’s ever been since being drafted prior to his 2011 rookie season. That probably even stretches back to before his 2010 junior season at Alabama, in which he battled a knee injury all year. I believe Payton will look to establish him as the lead back on the ground and will also get him more involved in the passing game. They certainly showed in the pre-season that they want to get him the ball out of backfield and he looked pretty good doing so.
-Nick Toon and Kenny Stills will combine for 60 receptions, 900 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Thoughts: These two youngsters looked great in the preseason. Sure it’s preseason, but you have to be impressed by what they did playing with the first team offense. Of course Marques Colston missed the first three preseason games, but I still expect both of them to be involved. Also, Lance Moore and Marques Colston both have a history of missing a game here and there, so look for Toon and Stills to step up in their absence if they do miss time.
Defensive Season Predictions
Before we get started with the defensive side, let me say that pretty much any positive prediction on the Saints defense is bold, so rather than having “not-so-bold” and “bold” predictions, they are going to be “bold” and “really bold” predictions. OK, moving on.
Bold
-The New Orleans Saints defense will stay between 18-24 in total defense ranks. Thoughts: I believe the defense will be much improved in 2013. Why? The easy answer is, “Well, they can’t get worse.” I’ll do you one better and say that even against my wishes to bring in Rob Ryan as the defensive coordinator, I believe that he will make a difference. The new scheme, aside from being a 3-4, is very similar to the one that was instrumental in the Saints Superbowl run in ’09. That defense was predicated on pressure that led to turnovers. I expect a lot of the same this season, especially after what we saw this preseason. I still see the Saints getting in to a few shootouts, which is when they’ll jump back up around the 24 area.
-Kenny Vacarro will lead the team in “wow” plays. Thoughts: This guy attacks the ball, plain and simple. He is all over the place on the field. For LSU fans, his game is a lot like the Honey Badger. He’s always flying around and finding his way to the action.
-Junior Galette and Cam Jordan will combine for 20 sacks. Thoughts: These guys are on the brink of major breakthroughs. Jordan is coming off of an 8 sack season and even showed the ability to get pressure from as a 3-4 end this preseason. He is now back in his more natural position that he played at Cal and he saw great improvement between years one and two. Galette is also steadily improving his game and he too is in a more natural position as a 3-4 OLB.
Really Bold
-The Saints defense will be top-15 in red zone defense. Thoughts: I’m going all in on the comparison to the 2009 defense. They were highly regarded as the “bend, but don’t break defense” and this unit very well may be the same. I believe that the less space, the better for this attacking unit.
-Malcolm Jenkins will take a step in the right direction. Thoughts: Entering the 2011 season, Jenkins was thought to be one of the up and coming safeties ready to break out. That hasn’t been the case so far, as he’s struggled to find consistency along with the rest of his unit. The addition of Vacarro should take some pressure off of Jenkins and allow him to move around where the coaches feel he fits best in certain situations.
-Keenan Lewis will have 6 interceptions and 30 pass breakups. Thoughts: Reports say that Lewis had an outstanding camp. He is coming from Dick Lebeau defense, so he’s certainly well taught. He will get many chances as teams try to attack down field on the Saints defense and I believe that his talent will show. It may take him a game or two to get completely comfortable, but the guy has tons of talent.
Final Prediction
12-4, NFC South Champs.
Who Dat?!
