The New Orleans Saints will try to win their third game in a row, as they will face the talented Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football this evening. The Saints (2-4) will need to continue their winning ways in order to get back into the playoff discussion and to keep pace with the division leading Atlanta Falcons. Denver (3-3) sits atop the AFC West, but will seek to extend their division lead with another win.
New Orleans will need for the defense to step up big in order for a win. That task will certainly not be easy, as the Broncos possess one of the more balanced offenses in the NFL.
The addition of Peyton Manning at quarterback has paid immediate dividends for the Denver Broncos.
PASS DEFENSE:
The night and day difference between the 2011 Bronco passing attack and the 2012 edition of the same unit can be directly attributed to the change in signal caller. Gone is Tim Tebow, a player that created, and continues to create, controversy. His on-field passing ability, or lack thereof, led to Denver posting the second-worst aerial attack in the league. The Broncos only threw for an average of 152.1 yards per game a year ago; only the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars ranked lower.
His replacement? Sure-fire Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning, who, despite a slow start, is guiding the Denver offense to more respectable levels of passing efficiency. Through the first seven weeks of the season, Denver has the fourth-most productive passing offense, posting an average of 290.8 yards per game. Manning has been extremely efficient this season, completing almost 68% of his passes and only throwing four interceptions, three of which came in one game – a Week 2 matchup against Atlanta.
The trio of Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, and Brandon Stokley have provided much of the receiving production for Manning, amassing a total of 1199 yards and 9 touchdowns. Stokley, a teammate of Manning’s back in Indianapolis, has emerged as a particularly important skill player for the offense. His knowledge of the Peyton Manning-led, audible heavy offense has paid immediate dividends for the team, and has also provided a go-to, crunch time target for the quarterback. This was clearly evident two weeks ago against the San Diego Chargers, where Stokley was targeted for a momentum swinging touchdown reception, one that gave Denver the lead and erased a huge first half deficit.
Tight end production for the Broncos has also been key for the early success. Another ex-Colt, Jacob Tamme, is third on the team in receptions. Joel Dreessen, who caught six passes against the Chargers during that huge comeback, has hauled in three touchdowns so far this season.
For the Saints, defending the pass continues to be the team’s weakest link. New Orleans allows an average of 304.5 yards per game (30th in the NFL). Nonetheless, there are some reasons to be positive. For the past two games, quarterback pressure is seemingly becoming more present. The play of the defensive line, particularly DE Cam Jordan, has improved. Blitzing from the linebacking corps seems to be more effective.
In order for the Saints‘ pass defense to be successful against Manning and the Bronco passing game, creating a pass rush and maintaining it will be very important. This will be a tall task; Denver has only allowed 10 sacks on Manning this season. The Saints, however, may be aided with the return of LB David Hawthorne. Hawthorne is listed as questionable for Sunday night’s game, and is most likely a game-time decision. Nevertheless, the possible addition of Hawthorne, along with another week of Jonathan Vilma, provides more depth for the Saints’ defense, something that is sorely needed for this struggling unit.
Limiting crucial yards after catch (YAC) will be another key for the Saints’ defense. Tackling has been an issue for everyone on the defense, but even more so for the secondary. New Orleans cornerbacks have had trouble wrapping up receivers this season, allowing for opposing players to gain unnecessary extra yardage and to keep drives alive on 3rd down. Denver has two physical receivers (Decker and Thomas) that measure at 6’3” – wrapping up this duo will be paramount for the defense.
Finally, avoiding penalties and blown assignments will be needed in order for the Saints to stay in this game. Giving Peyton Manning extra opportunities to score will spell trouble for New Orleans; the team truly needs to dedicate itself to smart and consistent play on the defensive end. Avoiding penalties, especially on 3rd and 4th down, will keep our defense, and Manning, off of the field. If the Saints can simply avoid major penalties and not give up the big play, the likelihood of victory will exponentially increase.
RUN DEFENSE:
The Tim Tebow offense of 2011 can be aptly described as “run heavy”, and with good reason; Denver led the league in both total rushing yardage and rushing attempts per game a year ago. Along with Tebow, the Broncos relied on a steady dose of RBs Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno.
This year, Denver’s run production hasn’t been as fruitful. The team averages less than 100 yards per game on the ground (93.8 to be exact), ranking 23rd league-wide. Attempts per game run 16th overall in the NFL, still nowhere near last year’s averages. Such is the case when Peyton Manning is your quarterback. The Denver offense is certainly in a better situation than it was a year ago, as the unit is more balanced and multi-dimensional.
McGahee returns as the team’s leading rusher this year, amassing 432 yards and a 4.3 yard per carry average. His three touchdowns lead the team, but the offense only has four rushing touchdowns total. The often injured Moreno has been phased out of the offense (he has 8 carries for 15 yards this season). Taking his place has been the task of rookie newcomer Ronnie Hillman and veteran Lance Ball, who have combined for 95 yards on 34 carries.
The Saints‘ run defense has been horrible this season, allowing an average of 161 yards per game (31st in the NFL) and 4.9 yards per carry (29th). Poor gap control along the defensive line and missed tackles have been the main culprits, allowing for extended drives by opposing offenses. Last week, the defense’s run stoppage woes continued, as the unit allowed over 100 yards and over 4 yards per carry against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The physical, downhill running nature of McGahee presents real issues for the Saints‘ defense. Keeping dreaded YAC down will be difficult against the 6’, 235 pound back. Wrapping up the ballcarrier on first contact will need to be the responsibility of the defensive line and linebacking corps. Keeping extra yardage to a minimum will not only keep 3rd down situations manageable for the Saints‘ defense, but will also get the Saints‘ offense back out on the field, keeping the time of possession battle in the team’s favor.
Line of scrimmage establishment has been a huge issue for the New Orleans defensive front this season. The line will need to improve drastically in order for the defense to succeed against the run. The defensive tackle rotation of Sedrick Ellis, Broderick Bunkley, Akiem Hicks, and Tom Johnson will need to be the more physically dominant unit. Establishing the line of scrimmage through the defensive line will also pay dividends for the passing game, as it will force the offense to leave in extra blockers on passing downs.
Keeping the running game grounded (no pun intended) will be key for a Saint victory. If the defense can keep Denver under 4 yards per attempt, that will allow for the team to keep 2nd and 3rd down situations manageable. Making the Broncos one dimension on offense will allow for New Orleans to dedicate more players to defending the pass, either by assisting with a rush or by putting more defensive backs in coverage.
PLAYERS TO WATCH:
LB Jonathan Vilma
The second week of an active Jonathan Vilma should pay dividends for the New Orleans defense. Vilma’s veteran presence and leadership will certainly help a unit that is still searching for playmakers. His on-field production almost led to two turnovers last week. Expect Vilma to be involved on more snaps this evening. He clearly understands the defensive scheme, and any extra help for the defense will be needed, especially when facing a quarterback as talented as Manning. If Vilma improves upon last week’s showing, the defense will improve as a whole as well.
S Malcolm Jenkins and Roman Harper
Was last week’s epic chase down of Buccaneer WR Vincent Jackson a tipping point moment for Malcolm Jenkins? He has struggled at times this season, but has seemingly improved over the past few games. Good, consistent safety play has always been a hallmark of a Steve Spagnuolo defense, and Jenkins is starting to fill that important role.
For Harper, his play has improved drastically over the past two games. Against San Diego, he recorded a game-changing interception. Last week, he should have had another interception (the retraction of that pick via instant replay was a travesty). He has been more of an active participant against the run and as a blitzer, seeing playing time as an extra linebacker in certain packages.
The improved play of Jenkins and Harper has translated into success for the Saints’ defense. If that improvement continues, New Orleans should be in a position to make plays against the Denver offensive attack.
PREDICTION:
Offensive fireworks will be in order on Sunday night, as both team possess dynamic passing attacks capable of posting 35+ points each. In order to win, a team will have to both force turnovers and come up with critical stops on third down. For the Saints, momentum is in their favor after posting two huge wins in three weeks. S Malcolm Jenkins will have another big game for the defense, and Jonathan Vilma’s veteran know-how will prove to be massively important, especially late. This game will be a close shootout, but I have the Saints squeaking by for the victory.
Saints 41, Broncos 38
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