Another day, another dollar. For the Saints, that saying is quickly turning into “another week, another loss.” After losing to three cupcakes, the Saints now face the reigning #1 seed in the NFC in the Green Bay Packers. If you want a short summary of the recap of each unit here it is: Saints defense – bad, Packers offense – good.
The Packers, as you probably all know, are 1-2 but should be 2-1. They lost 14-12 against the Seattle Seahawks in the most controversial game in recent memory. It is because of that game that we will have regular referees calling our game. Unfortunately, Ed Hochuli will be reffing the Jaguars-Bengals game.
This game is a “must win” for each team. The Saints must win before fans start the suck for a better draft pick campaign. The Packers must win to avoid going 1-3 and digging themselves a huge hole for the playoffs. This game also is big because these are two of the most talented teams in the league who have both underachieved so far. With the holes each of these teams have dug, only one will likely make the playoffs and the winner of this game will own the tiebreaker.
PASS DEFENSE:
“Aaron Rodgers > your quarterback.” That’s all Packers fans had to say to opposing fans last year… and with good reason. He threw for 4,643 yards, 45 touchdowns, and a mere 6 interceptions, earning him MVP honors. Coming into the year, Aaron Rodgers was the concensus best NFL quarterback to everyone outside of New Orleans and New England.
This year, however, Aaron Rodgers has looked far more pedestrian, throwing for just 745 yards and 3 touchdowns in 3 games. That’s an average of (about) 250 YPG and 1 touchdown per game. That’s a key reason the Packers are averaging under 20 points per game.
Greg Jennings has also struggled so far this season. He’s already missed one game because of an injured groin. He’s averaging a career low 6.3 yards per catch. Fellow wide reciever Jordy Nelson has also taken a step backwards from his spectacular 2011 season.
But look at who the Packers have faced so far: the 49ers, Bears, and Seahawks. All 3 are probably top 10 defenses and the Seahawks are top 5 while the 49ers are arguably the best D in the league. All are known for their superb pass rush. The 49ers, as we Saints fans remember from their constant pressure on Drew Brees in last year’s divisional matchup, have the best front 7 in the NFL. The Bears lead the NFL in sacks while only rushing the front 4. And the Seahawks were able to sack Aaron Rodgers 9 times.
While most people look at that Seahawks game and think of the Fail Mary, the Saints should look at it as a blueprint to stopping Aaron Rodgers. The Seahawks brought constant pressure which made Aaron Rodgers look average. If there’s one similarity in the 3 teams’ strategy in stopping Aaron Rodgers, it’s pressure. And so far, it’s worked quite well. Rodgers wasn’t able to do anything in the passing game until the second half when the Packers started using 2 tight end sets and anything possible to protect Rodgers. If the Saints can get early pressure on Rodgers, they can force the Packers to go into max-protect mode and get some of their other playmakers off the field.
The Packers are insanely deep at wide reciever with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley. With all these weapons, it’s nearly impossible to cover them all. Jordy Nelson is their deep threat who, if not taken as a serious deep threat, will burn defenses for easy touchdowns. Randall Cobb is their all around player, being a slot reciever, kick returner (yes, we all remember that insane return during last season’s opener), and the Packers are not opposed to running it to him. Jermichael Finley has the size of a tight end, but the skill set of a reciever. And Greg Jennings is their solid all around reciever.
The Saints need to keep everything in front of them and wrap up. They have to also keep the pressure on Rodgers and keep him in the pocket. They can’t let him run for first downs on those 3rd and 7s or 8s. The Saints have struggled getting pressure and locking down recievers so far. However, if the Saints can get quick pressure, the corners won’t have to cover for very long.
RUN DEFENSE:
When you think of the Packers nowadays, you don’t usually think of a running team. They usually just like to throw and have a timely run game.
This year the Packers went out and got Cedric Benson in free agency. While not what he used to be, Cedric Benson is still an effective NFL runningback. So far he has 144 yards on 46 carries and a touchdown. That’s a below-average 3.1 yards per carry, but remember that they’ve faced 3 very good defenses.
Aaron Rodgers, while not a Michael Vick, Cam Newton, or RGIII, is a very mobile quarterback. While Drew Brees is very good at avoiding pressure and buying extra time, Rodgers can outrun defensive lineman which allows him to rush for timely first downs.
The Packers have also used fullback John Kuhn in short yardage situations and versatile reciever Randall Cobb to run.
The Saints are coming off an horrendous performance against the run vs the Chiefs. In the game, they gave up 273 yards rushing. And in the first two games, they looked dumbfounded by quarterbacks who could run. While Rodgers can’t run like Newton and Griffin, the Saints still must respect his mobility.
If the Saints want to have any hope in this game, they must not only stop the run, but shut it down. They have to hold them to very close to what they’ve been averaging the first 3 weeks. This should hopefully force the Packers to become more one-dimensional and allow the Saints to force a few turnovers.
PLAYERS TO WATCH:
Patrick Robinson- During last year’s matchup, Patrick Robinson got absolutely abused by Aaron Rodgers. We all saw the replay where Rodgers nodded at Jennings, covered by Robinson, before the play and then threw right at him. Rodgers continued going after Robinson, especially when he was covering Jennings. If the Saints want to win, Robinson has to be sufficient.
Will Smith/Cam Jordan- The biggest key for the Saints defense is to pressure Rodgers. These two have to be the biggest enforcers, and both will need to get sacks. If Spags decides to let his front 4 alone get pressure, then these are the 2 who will have to make that happen.
Malcolm Jenkins- It’s been 20 games since a Saints’ safety has made an interception. If the Saints can stop the run and pressure Rodgers, then he will have to make some quick throws into coverage. Look for Jenkins, who is best when playing a center-field-type role, to come up with the big play.
Injury Report-DE Turk McBride (ankle), LB David Hawthorne (hamstring), and LB Johnathan Casillas (neck) are all out for the Packers game.
Prediction- The Saints are able to get some pressure on Rodgers, but not enough to really bother him. Rodgers has a few drives where he is able to pick apart the Saints defense. Cedric Benson is able to run for key first downs to keep drives alive. Drew Brees and the Saints offense look more like themeslves but make a few costly mistakes.
Packers- 35 Saints-27.
Hopefully I’m wrong because no matter how it looks (0-4, 0-4, 0-4, 0-4, 0-4), 0-4 really sucks.
