This week, the Saints will face a hungry Atlanta Falcons team still gunning for the NFC South divisional crown. Atlanta, still bitter after a Week 10 overtime loss to New Orleans, will look to slow down a potent Saints offense that is clicking on all cylinders.
Pass Offense
Drew Brees is 304 yards away from matching Dan Marino’s season record for passing yards, which was set in 1984. His performance this year has been absolutely masterful, but will it be enough to convince MVP voters that he is more deserving than Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers? This evening’s contest has all of the variables for a performance that could tip the scales in Brees’ favor: a Monday night, nationally televised game, a matchup against a bitter rival, and a divisional title/home playoff game are all on the line. If Brees showcases with a performance similar to the New England Monday-nighter back in 2009, he has a very strong case for MVP.
Brees will be facing a Falcons secondary that has been pretty average all season, giving up an average of 230.6 yards per game (17th in the NFL). Moreover, Atlanta will be without CB Kelvin Hayden (toe) and might be without CB Brent Grimes (knee). Although the secondary hasn’t been exactly great, the Falcons still have the ability to create issues for opposing offenses. DE John Abraham has registered another solid year, amassing 8.5 sacks and forcing 3 fumbles. DE Ray Edwards hasn’t made a huge impact this year (only 3.5 sacks in 2011), but he still requires the attention of opposing RTs everywhere.
Stopping Abraham will be the top priority for the Saints. It will help that this game will be in New Orleans (less noise on Saints offensive possessions = better communication between offensive line and quarterback), but Abraham still has the potential to absolutely take over a game. Thankfully, the Saints have done a good job of stopping the opposing team’s best pass rusher this season (sans the St. Louis debacle). Keeping in TEs to chip against Abraham, screen passes, and a consistent running game will help keep Brees off of the turf and the Saints passing offense humming along as it has all season.
Run Offense
Consistency has been the name of the game for the Saints’ rushing attack this season. The unit averages 125.4 yards per game this season, good for 10th overall in the NFL. More importantly, Saints running backs have averaged 4.7 yards per attempt this year, 6th overall. Those stats are pretty impressive, considering that the offense is extremely pass-centric. The Saints, however, will probably be without rookie RB Mark Ingram (toe). Chris Ivory has been impressive in his absence, and will look to have more of a role as a main ball carrier.
The highlight of the Atlanta defense has been in stopping the run. They only allow an average of 96.6 yards per game this season, 4th in NFL. Credit has to be given to Head Coach Mike Smith, who has transformed the Falcons into a formidable defense during his tenure. The task of stopping the run might be more difficult for Atlanta, as they will likely miss LB Stephen Nicolas (toe).
Even without Nicholas, the Falcons do an excellent job of playing team defense and getting to the ball carrier. Look for the Saints to use all three available backs (Thomas, Sproles, and Ivory) in order to gain an advantage. If one gets hot over another, that particular back will be the feature guy for Sean Payton. Using draw plays might also be a good idea, given that Atlanta will almost surely be focused in on Brees for most of the game.
Matchup to Watch
Falcons DE John Abraham vs. Saints LT Jermon Bushrod. John Abraham scares the hell out of me in this game, and with good reason. Abraham is poised for one of those “screw you guys, I’m taking this thing over” type of performances, and hopefully Bushrod is up to the challenge. Brees will need to be aware of Abraham’s presence on every passing situation, especially on third downs. If Bushrod can contain Abraham, that will free up more receivers and tight ends for Brees. Keeping Brees upright and Abraham out of the backfield will be a huge key for a New Orleans victory.
