The New Orleans Saints will have their last road test of the regular season this week, as they take on the lowly Minnesota Vikings. It seemed like yesterday that the Vikings were contending for a NFC championship. Minnesota is now a 2-11 football team, preparing for a long offseason. Although the Saints head into this weekend’s game as a 7.5 point favorite, they will need to establish themselves offensively against a defense that still has playmakers.
Pass Offense
The successes of the Saints’ passing attack this season have been well documented and publicized. QB Drew Brees has been absolutely amazing, and would be a bonafide MVP lock if not for Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers. Brees‘ group of receivers have been playing particularly well, and each member executes his particular job very well. The passing attack is the best in the league, and perhaps one of the best in NFL history.
Minnesota’s pass defense hasn’t been exactly stellar this season. The Viking defense allows an average of 248.8 yards per game (26th in the NFL). Minnesota also gives up an average of 8.1 yards per completion, tied for 3rd worst league-wide. Even worse, reports have surfaced that Viking defenders are ignoring playcalling from defensive coordinator Fred Pagac.
Despite all of the dysfunction, Vikings DE Jared Allen is having a remarkable season. He currently leads the NFL with 17.5 sacks, and would be a contender for Defensive Player of the Year if not for the absolute desolate wasteland that is the 2011 Minnesota Vikings. Allen, however, provides little resistance to a high-powered Saints passing game that has figured out the best strategy against an elite pass rusher: quick passes, screens, play action, keep in tight ends to chip if things get out of hand. The major edge has to go to New Orleans, and with good reason, given that Brees has played like a man possessed for the past few weeks.
Run Offense
The Saints have had a pretty solid rushing attack this year, averaging 122.6 yards per game this season (8th in the NFL). More importantly, Saints running backs have averaged 4.8 yards per attempt this season, good enough to tie for 4th best league-wide. 4.8 yards per carry is pretty impressive, and allows for the opposing defense not to totally focus in on the pass. Without the production from the rushing game this season, there is no way that Brees is having this type of season.
The lone bright spot for the Vikings’ defense has been in stopping the run. They have only allowed 101.4 yards per game this season on the ground (9th in the NFL). Minnesota only allows 3.7 yards per attempt (tied for 4th in the NFL). Furthermore, the Vikings have only allowed two opposing running backs to gain over 100 yards this season: Oakland’s Michael Bush in Week 11 (109 yards) and Denver’s Willis McGahee in Week 13 (111 yards).
The Saints rushing offense will be without rookie RB Mark Ingram for a second straight week, as he is recovering from a toe injury. That means more carries for Chris Ivory, who had an impressive 13 carry, 53 yard performance last week against Tennessee. As long as the Saints stay around the 4 yard per carry average mark for the game, they should be fine. The Saints can run with power when they want to, even without Ingram in the lineup. The real purpose of the running game for the Saints is to keep the passing game fully functioning, which it has been doing all year long. That task will be difficult against Minnesota, especially on the road. Nonetheless, I expect for the Saints to do just enough on the ground to let Brees take over.
Matchup to Watch
WR Marques Colston vs. Minnesota secondary. Colston has had a pretty solid year (58 grabs for 826 yards and 5 touchdowns), despite missing the first part of the season with missing two games with a broken collarbone. He makes the entire receiving corps better by taking any role that Sean Payton hands him. Colston is excellent outside of the numbers, but also a force in the slot. Along with TE Jimmy Graham, Colston provides an instant mismatch with his size over smaller defensive backs. Look for him to command double teams and allow others to get open down the field. His impact on the offense may not reflect from a statistical sense, but Colston is certainly an integral cog in the Saints’ offensive machine, and will be against the Vikings.
