As the 2011 NFL draft approaches, it is important to understand where the Saints stand at each major position group. As draft day is only three days away, let’s focus on an area that many believe will be the Saints number one target on Thursday night.
The Saints defense has been solid under defensive coordinator Gregg Williams since 2009. The “bend but don’t break” style has often backfired for NFL teams, but rarely has this defensive philosophy worked as well as it has for the Saints the last two years. The reason for this is simple–the Saints force turnovers. In 2009, the Saints had the third best turnover differential in the NFL with a +11 mark. A huge part of that statistic was Darren Sharper’s league-leading 9 interceptions, and without Sharper playing such a prominent role in 2010, the Saints turnover differential fell to -6.
While it is always nice to be able to force an obscene number of turnovers, it is always a good idea to at least have a solid run defense as a backup plan. Teams who get a lead against the Saints are able to run time off the clock against a defense that ranked only 16th against the run in 2010 (for perspective, the Saints ranked 4th against the pass).
Let’s start with the basics. The Saints will play a base 4-3 defense in 2011. Will Smith will play one defensive end position. Sedrick Ellis will play one defensive tackle position. The other two defensive line positions, at this point, are slated to be played by some combination of Anthony Hargrove, Alex Brown, Shaun Rogers, and Remi Ayodele, with a few Jeff Charleston, Junior Galette, and Jimmy Wilkerson sightings throughout the season.
This has been labeled the deepest defensive line draft class in years (some say decades), so it will not be absurd to think that the Saints can easily grab a top-15 talent at pick number 24.
The Saints may have a decent inside option with the newly-signed Rogers for the time being, but this is (at best) a one-year deal that the Saints should not count on for the future. Rogers is a massive body who can team with Ellis to hopefully shut down the inside temporarily, but there needs to be an understudy to this defensive tackle group that is ready to take the reigns in 2012 if not sooner.
Ayodele and Hargrove have played well the last two years, but they are not foundational pieces of this unit like Ellis is, and, let’s face it–Rogers is 6’4″, 350 lb. He will be the linebackers’ best friend when it comes to occupying opposing blockers on running plays and blitzes.
The ideal draft scenario at this position should the Saints choose to go this direction is Illinois DT Corey Liuget, who is about the same size as Ellis and ranks number 11 on Mel Kiper Jr.’s Big Board. Temple’s Muhammad Wilkerson is also stout versus the run and could move inside despite playing end in college. Another option is Baylor’s Phil Taylor, who is much larger but grades out slightly lower and has been marked with the infamous “character concerns” label.
While DT would be a great position to address on Thursday night, getting a pass-rushing defensive end who also grades well against the run should be the top priority. Again, if the top 5-7 DEs are gone and Liuget is there, then Liuget is the pick (barring the trade option), but there should be quality DEs available at this position.
This person would be a complement to Will Smith, and hopefully can surpass and eventually replace what Smith has been able to contribute to the Saints defensive line. Alex Brown was a solid player in 2010, but with such a deep d-line class, odds are the Saints should be able to grab a guy with a mucher higher ceiling than that of Brown, even if it takes a year to mature at the NFL level.
The draft is full of smaller DEs who will likely be converted to outside linebackers in some NFL team’s 3-4 defense, but the Saints will likely be looking for someone slightly larger. Temple’s Wilkerson grades as an elite pass-rusher and solid against the run, but at 315 lb., is probably more suited to play end in a 3-4 scheme or on the interior in a 4-3 scheme like the Saints.
The dream scenario here is for Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers, who was once a legitimate possibility to be the number one overall pick, to fall all the way into the twenties due to the knee problem that has caused a red flag for many teams. At 6’3″, 280 lb., he is the perfect size for the Saints defensive line (almost identical to Smith), and would immediately upgrade the pass-rush and the run defense (barring issues with the knee).
That said, this isn’t likely. ESPN’s Todd McShay has Bowers going 20th to Tampa Bay in his latest mock, which is the lowest of any mock so far for Bowers. If Bowers is still there in the 15-20 range, don’t be surprised if the Saints offer a team a package to try to draft Bowers. Let’s not forget about the 2008 draft day trade in which the Saints moved up from No. 10 to No. 7 in order to draft Sedrick Ellis.
Realistically, though, Bowers probably won’t make it to 15. Two other names to keep an eye on at DE are Ohio State’s Cameron Heyward and the prospect that has been most commonly connected to the Saints, Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn. Clayborn ranks well against the run and as a pass-rusher, and will hopefully excel in Gregg Williams’ aggressive system.
The bottom line here really is that the Saints probably can’t go wrong by spending their first round pick on a defensive lineman, whether it be a big DT or a solid, pass-rushing DE. Unless some teams that pick before the Saints bypass their biggest needs to draft defensive linemen, the Saints should be able to get their man at number 24.
