As Joe Gerrity pointed out in his earlier post, US District Judge Susan Richard Nelson granted the NFLPA’s request for a preliminary injunction requiring the NFL owners to lift their lockout. For now, this very moment, this means that the lockout is over. In reality, however, this situation is far from over. While acknowledging that we are not legal professionals here at Saints247, we will do our best to break this situation down in a way that gives fans the information they want–whether or not there will be football in 2011, and when it is likely to begin.
The lockout is no longer in effect, but this is far from business as usual. A number of NFL players, primarily those who stand to gain hundreds of thousands of dollars in workout bonuses, showed up at their team facilities today in order to work out and qualify for those bonuses. Legally, the management was not allowed to restrict access to the facilities, however most teams closed their weight rooms or let their training staff have a day off, preventing the players from actually working out. Most of the players who showed up entered the building, stuck around for a few minutes, maybe chatted with a coach or two, and left. Whether or not the owners will acknowledge their attempt to qualify for contractual bonuses remains to be seen.
Immediately following Judge Nelson’s ruling, the NFL submitted notice that they would appeal the ruling in 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals, and asked Judge Nelson for a stay on her ruling that would maintain the status quo (keep the lockout in place) until the appellate court gives its ruling. Whether or not Judge Nelson grants the stay will be announced at 8:00 AM CST Wednesday morning at the earliest. The appeal proceeding stands to be a 45-60 day process.
So this is where the situation currently stands as we all wait impatiently for the next bit of legal jargon to be released. There are a number of scenarios that seem to be possible moving forward.
The Dream Scenario: Judge Nelson denies the NFL the stay it requested. The NFL asks for a stay from the 8th circuit court while it makes its decision, but this is also denied, which pretty much guarantees that if the owners continue the appeal process, they will eventually lose. The NFL gives up, realizing its only choice is to make significant concessions as it returns to the collective bargaining table. The league year begins, the beginning of free agency coincides with the draft, and the perfect storm of NFL player movement ensues as the owners agree to play the 2011 season under the same rules as the 2010 season.
Likelihood: Small. The situation looks better than it did yesterday, but still not THIS good quite yet.
*UPDATE: The NFLPA has requested that Judge Nelson force the NFL to begin the league year immediately. The NFL has until 5:00 PM CST Wednesday to present it’s argument as to why Judge Nelson should deny this request.*
More realistic, but still pretty good scenario: Whether or not a stay is granted, the NFL carries out its appeal to the bitter end, ultimately losing as the 8th circuit court upholds Judge Nelson’s ruling. The lockout is lifted in late June, and the league year begins. A stunted free agency period along with a continuation of 2010 FA rules leads to limited player movement, but the 2011 season starts on time.
Likelihood: According to ESPN Legal Analyst Lester Munson, this seems to be the most likely scenario, which should be relieving to fans, though potentially frustrating for the next two months. Such a swift end to this saga seemed impossible only yesterday, but despite the expectation of an injunction being granted, the power with which Judge Nelson leveled her ruling was an unexpectedly enormous blow to the owners’ lockout plans. In her 89-page opinion, Judge Nelson apparently uses extremely strong language in rejecting all of the owners claims while ruling that the lockout will cause “irreparable harm” to players that is too great to be offset by monetary damages.
Frustrating, and depending on NFLPA stubbornness, potential disaster scenario: Regardless of whether or not a stay is granted, the owners win their appeal and Judge Nelson’s ruling is overturned. The lockout continues, and one of two things happens. With no remaining leverage, the NFLPA makes concessions and the owners end the lockout, or DeMaurice Smith continues his “war” against the NFL, and the 2011 season is jeopardized.
Likelihood: It seems unlikely given the harsh ruling by Judge Nelson that will be reviewed by the appellate court, but the 8th circuit court is a different entity than Judge Nelson, so it’s possible. The owners would likely have to present an entirely new argument, but this situation has been so bizarre up to this point that we can’t rule anything out. This seems to be the only scenario at this point that could jeopardize the 2011 season.
It’s anybody’s guess what twists and turns remain to be seen in this crazy offseason, but this is what we know up to this point. Check back for more details as they unfold.
