January 14th - New Orleans Pelicans VS Los Angeles Clippers - 20-23

Coming off a stupid, stupid loss to Minnesota on the road in which we could have won despite everything going badly if only Gentry had played Payton in the final five minutes, we return home to play the 24-18 LA Clippers. The Clippers have gone 9-11 since December 1st, including losing their last two straight. They have yet to beat a team with a .500+ record in 2019, same as us. Again, we are healthy heading into tonight's game, and Niko is no longer on a minutes restriction according to various tweets I've seen. Take that with a grain of salt. Let's look at LAC:

Offensive rating: 7th
Defensive rating: 23rd
Rebounds per game: 19th
Assists per game: 24th
Steals per game: 30th
Blocks per game: 21st
2pt percentage: 20th
3pt percentage: 4th

With those offensive and defensive ratings, LAC are actually a good comparison for ourselves as a team. They're slightly worse on offense, but slightly better on defense, yet their record is better than ours by a fair margin. Why is that? Clutch play and ability to finish, basically. LAC are what we would be right now if we didn't fall apart in crunch time. If you take some of our crunch time losses, we have lost 6 games by a combined 20 points. We are, in essence, 1 quarter away from being 26-17. That's how much better we would be if we could finish even some of those close losses. Anyway, let's look at LAC:

Tobias Harris is still their main man. He's shooting 50/43/87 from the field, which is dead-eye. Averagine 21/8 per game on those efficiencies is pretty impressive too: he spaces the floor brilliantly for them and can create his own shot without assistance. That's lucky, because he's not great at passing out of trouble, averaging 2.2 assists per game despite being a primary ball handler at times (2nd highest usage rating out of players who actually get minutes for LAC, after Lou Will). He's also not a particularly talented defender, with a defensive rating of 111 and a net rating of only 4. For comparison, AD is our lead scorer and his net rating is 20, with a defensive rating of 105. Obviously ORTG and DRTG doesn't tell you anything on its own, but his subpar defensive win shares, combined with the fact that opponents shoot exactly their average percentages against him shows he can be exploited to some degree.

Next up is Lou Will and Danilo Gallinari. I list them together because they both fulfill the same role: they can both create their own shot, both are shooting well from three, both are averaging around 18ppg, and both play between 25 and 30 minutes a game. Neither of them are skilled playmakers or passers, but both can go blackout from range and drop you in a hole. They need to have whoever is defending them focused, and the coaching staff really need to make sure guys know their assignments around the arc. It's that simple, there's nothing miraculous here.

Finally is Montrezl Harrell. Not a versatile player, he's an energy big and is averaging 4 offensive boards per game. Whether it's AD or Randle, he needs to be exploited because while he's a solid player, he's not on their levels and if he ends up defending Niko in space, then that would be a great recipe for Niko to have a comeback game after the poor performance in Minnesota.

That's about it. We need to win, we're at home so we probably will win. It's that simple. Let's go and #DoItBig.

Feeling good about this one.

Great write up as always but we are still on the road. :help:

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Originally Posted by P_B_&_G

Great write up as always but we are still on the road. :help:

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You're right, of course. I think my brain mixed up the two pages cause I always open up both team's profiles so I can compare stuff, must have just got the wires crossed there and didn't think. We're on the road for a little while now, actually.

lineups for today:

New Orleans Pelicans

PG: Payton
SG: Holiday
SF: Moore
PF: Randle
C: Davis

LA Clippers

PG: Gilgeous-Alexander
SG: Bradley
SF: Gallinari
PF: Harris
C: Gortat

Randle seems to want to repeat his last game against LAC

No need for Jrue to jump there, he had Harris' number if he had stood his ground.

Jrue rebounding hard inside, making a big difference

Loving the offensive rebounding early!

Moore for 3! Love that, the defense has actually looked really good so far.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Moore for 3! Love that, the defense has actually looked really good so far.

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Okay thanks guys, prove me wrong if you want.

Beverley just stuck his hands in Payton's socks, twice, no calls.

NOW it's a Pels game!

On the plus side, despite a few odd plays the defense HAS looked better overall.

Also: San Antonio and Memphis both lost tonight, and Detroit is keeping level with Utah in the fourth so that could always fall our way too.

Awful defense for the last two minutes, although the refs giving Lou Will free throws for his own manufactured foul didn't help.

Down 36-32 after the first quarter. Still so early but not good to see that many points on the board in so early.

Was getting away for a bit but brought it back.

Okafor can score, and the Clips bigs can't seem to handle it early. Exploit that.

Love seeing Jrue aggressive.

Love Frank's hustle there

I'd call that a flagrant. Not a basketball play at all, shoulder up into Randle's collarbone area. Intentional foul just to interrupt the play, didn't care about the ball at all.

NEED AD back in soon. No rim protection at all right now.

Frank and Jah is the buddy cop movie I’m pining for.

— Kevin Barrios (@kevinbforbounce) January 15, 2019

Okafor is looking good this season, he needs a good off-season to work on some of his mechanics to be top 5 Center.

Lou Will gets foul calls. Marcin Gortat gets foul calls. Montrezl Harrell gets foul calls.

Anthony Davis does not get foul calls. Jrue Holiday does not get foul calls.

It's weird. We're tied but the game doesn't feel good.