The Mount Zion Thread

Not going to talk about the next potential great?

ALL THINGS ZION

He's not even in shape yet and looks pretty unstoppable. It doesnt take much for this dude to flood the stat sheet. Pels are very blessed to have him

I hope after All-Star break we actually run plays for him and give him good passes

He should be used like Draymond

Also still too many defensive possessions where he doesn’t know where he needs to be, but I just bring that up because I want the best for my large son

Before he was drafted, I said that Zion had (if he puts everything together properly) top 10 all time potential. I still believe that.

His off ball defense has been a bit of a mess so far this season but that's to be expected: we aren't a good team anyway on that end of the floor in general so it's not like he can slot right into a perfect system, and you have to remember that before debuting for us this year, he had played a total of 4 real basketball games in the prior 10 months. Dude is, with all due respect, rusty as hell.

But in pretty much all other ways, he's shown why he's going to be a star already. He needs to get his FT shooting back together (tonight was a good sign there), incorporate more ball-handling (that's more on coaching than him personally) and get that off-ball D together, but otherwise he's been great already

On ESPN just saw a stat the Pels are out scoring teams by 51 points with Zion on the court :hihi:

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Originally Posted by Speakthetruth

Not going to talk about the next potential great?

ALL THINGS ZION

He's not even in shape yet and looks pretty unstoppable. It doesnt take much for this dude to flood the stat sheet. Pels are very blessed to have him

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He's unguardable Speakthetruth in my 50 years of playing/ watching basketball I've never seen anything like him.Shaq in his prime is the closest.But Shaq needed to be close to the basket to dominate, Zion can explode in space 10 to 15 ft from the basket off the dribble.He has the fastest reaction time I've seen since Dennis Rodman.His instinctive second jump off of a missed shot is just amazing.He's a physical marvel the most explosive player ever.Nobody can handle him one on one the best teams can do is clog the lane very similar to trying to stop Giannis.

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Originally Posted by Speakthetruth

On ESPN just saw a stat the Pels are out scoring teams by 51 points with Zion on the court :hihi:

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Take a look at that On-Off

Just saw Ross Homan, a draft analyst for The Stepien, post a fun little thing.

Zion has played a grand total of 125 minutes. In that time, he has made 36 2pt field goals. That translates to one 2pt field goal every 3.4 minutes.

Here are some other rookies this year, and their numbers for comparison. The lower the number, the better.

Player Name	Total Minutes Played	2PT Field Goals Made	Minutes per 2pt FG
D'Andre Hunter	1492	140	10.65
RJ Barrett	1281	163	7.86
Cam Reddish	1189	87	13.66
Brandon Clarke	912	196	4.65
Ja Morant	1282	249	5.15
Jordan Poole	894	46	19.43
Matisse Thybulle	824	27	30.51
Darius Garland	1449	136	10.65
Coby White	1221	117	10.43
Rui Hachimura	729	136	5.37
Eric Paschall	1183	200	5.91
Tyler Herro	1236	118	10.45
PJ Washington	1294	138	9.37
Jaxson Hayes	880	142	6.19
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	494	37	13.35

I used rookies from throughout the draft, and I avoided using guys who have only played like, 40 minutes at the ends of blowouts and stuff. These are all guys who have actually played minutes (Even if in some cases, it's fewer minutes than we might want... NAW!)

You can see that while there's a wide range of 2pt-rates here, going from Brandon Clarke and Ja Morant's fairly quick rates all the way down to Matisse Thybulle and Jordan Poole's glacial paces, no one other than Zion gets below 4 minutes. Clark comes closest, but still takes over a minute longer than Zion per 2pt make.

This is Speed.

Zion is the first player in 40 years to average at least 19 points and 60%FG through their first 5 games. The last to do it was Michael Brooks in 1980. Before that, Dan Issel in 1976: those three are the only three to do this.

Brooks' career was relatively mediocre (played only 6 seasons, averaged 13 points and 6 rebounds) but Issel was an ABA champion, 6x ABA all-star, 5x All-ABA Team Member, averaged 23/9 for his career, and the Nuggets retired his jersey.

So not bad.

Per 36 Zion is averaging 28 - 11 - 3

He’s not even in shape yet and still working out the kinks, he is going to average 30 - 13 - 5 one day

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Zion is the first player in 40 years to average at least 19 points and 60%FG through their first 5 games. The last to do it was Michael Brooks in 1980. Before that, Dan Issel in 1976: those three are the only three to do this.

Brooks' career was relatively mediocre (played only 6 seasons, averaged 13 points and 6 rebounds) but Issel was an ABA champion, 6x ABA all-star, 5x All-ABA Team Member, averaged 23/9 for his career, and the Nuggets retired his jersey.

So not bad.

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To take this a step further, I saw a similar comparison regarding points, rebounds and %FG in their first 5 games. Players with 19/7/60%, other than Zion? None. Shaq was like 19/7/55%, And there were several at 18/7/60%, with a lot of big names included.

I mean hes just a few games in and already doing unseen before stuff.

Grabbing the ball from behind the backboard and laying it is tough to do even if you are playing bball in the pool!

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Originally Posted by RobertM320

To take this a step further, I saw a similar comparison regarding points, rebounds and %FG in their first 5 games. Players with 19/7/60%, other than Zion? None. Shaq was like 19/7/55%, And there were several at 18/7/60%, with a lot of big names included.

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Was it this post, from me? If so, it's 18/7/50%. The 60% is the real kicker, very few really reach that, especially with any sort of volume.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

But there's no denying that while he hasn't reached his ceiling yet (far from it), he's still a legit player right now. He's really good. Has yet to exceed 30 minutes in a game, and is averaging 19.2 points and 7.8 rebounds on 62.5% shooting (40/64).

List of rookies to ever average at least 19/7.5 on 60%FG in NBA history: nobody.
List of rookies to ever average at least 19/7 on 55%FG in NBA history: Shaq
List of rookies to ever average at least 18/7 on 50%FG in NBA history: Shaq, Walt Bellamy, Kareem, The Admiral, Tim Duncan, Marques Johnson, Magic, Hakeem, Adrian Dantley, Blake Griffin, Bill Cartwright, KAT, Alonzo Mourning, Ralph Sampson, Terry Dischinger, Terry Cummings.

This is good company to be in.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Zion is the first player in 40 years to average at least 19 points and 60%FG through their first 5 games. The last to do it was Michael Brooks in 1980. Before that, Dan Issel in 1976: those three are the only three to do this.

Brooks' career was relatively mediocre (played only 6 seasons, averaged 13 points and 6 rebounds) but Issel was an ABA champion, 6x ABA all-star, 5x All-ABA Team Member, averaged 23/9 for his career, and the Nuggets retired his jersey.

So not bad.

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50% bust chances confirmed!

So, Zion has the highest rim volume (per 100 possessions) of the last 20 years, including all players with at least 100 minutes.

His volume is 10% higher than No. 2 (JaVale McGee in 2017), and 15% higher than No. 3 (Giannis this year).

— Eustacchio Raulli (@EVR1022) February 3, 2020

Small Sample Size Alert

But still, incredible stuff early from him.

Mount zion indeed

31 9 and 5

Zion had more points than minutes for the 2nd time tonight.

From @EliasSports: Since the shot-clock era began in 1954-55, the only other player to do that twice within his first 10 NBA games is Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, among guys to play 15+ minutes in both games. pic.twitter.com/jxVLpzpfWc

— Andrew Lopez (@_Andrew_Lopez) February 12, 2020

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Originally Posted by Speakthetruth

Mount zion indeed

31 9 and 5

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In 28 mins

It will be interesting to see if zion keeps playing like this and morant keeps playing this, but pels make the playoffs and grizz dont. Does zion win ROY? I still think he wouldn't due to missed games

But pels getting the playoffs would be the only chance for zion to steal the award

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Originally Posted by Speakthetruth

It will be interesting to see if zion keeps playing like this and morant keeps playing this, but pels make the playoffs and grizz dont. Does zion win ROY? I still think he wouldn't due to missed games

But pels getting the playoffs would be the only chance for zion to steal the award

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I feel like the playoffs are an absolute requirement for Zion to get real consideration.

No-one in NBA history has ever won ROTY playing as few games as Zion will. Zion is probably going to finish the year having played something like 35 games: the fewest games any ROTY winner has played before this year was Patrick Ewing, and he played 50 games.

It reminds me a little of Embiid's rookie year. Embiid averaged 20/8/2, but he only played 31 games and that was a big part of the reason that Brogdon won ROTY, despite only averaging 10/3/4. The voters care about how much you play, and to be honest I don't blame them; you aren't eligible for DPOY or MVP unless you play in at least 55 games, so surely there has to be some limit for ROTY, right?

That's why playoffs are the big requirement for me. If Zion led the Pelicans to the playoffs after his return, bumping Morant's Grizzlies out of that spot, and had better statistics, that would be enough to overcome the games-played differential. If Morant plays more games and beats Zion's Pelicans out for the playoffs? No way Zion wins.

Zion makes offense so easy for the WHOLE TEAM. It's such a luxury just to run a simple post up and have a 60% chance at 2 points. A luxury most teams don't have. I'm so excited with the way the team is built and the pieces we have. I'm glad Griff didn't trade anyone at the deadline. I think, more than anything, it's a testament to the chemistry this squad has. I think the team does have an impressive win streak in them to finish out the year. Maybe sneaks into the playoffs. Would be so happy if they did.

This team is legit, didn’t even have Ingram last night. The future with Zion Ingram Hayes and Lonzo is amazing, not to mention maybe naw developing, future picks, and owning the Lakers picks for 5 years. The future is insanely bright.

Last night, Zion Williamson became the 1st rookie since the 1976-77 NBA-ABA merger to compile a 30-pt, 5-reb, 5-ast game in 30 or fewer minutes.

The last rookie to achieve that feat was Knicks' Cazzie Russell in 1966.

(h/t @EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/5OgNpixOKq

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) February 12, 2020

Stephen A Smith looked like he was going to bite his lip this morning.

This is spectacular!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...can-match/amp/

"Williamson, who's averaging 21 points per game, has scored at least 20 points in seven of his first nine career games, which puts him, yet again, in historic company. Per ESPN stats and info, Williamson is the only player over the last 30 seasons to accomplish that feat. The only two players who've come close are Shaquille O'Neal and Grant Hill, who both scored 20 points seven times in their first 10 career games."

"The last rookie to score at least 14 points in each of his first nine games was Dikembe Mutombo in 1991-92. Prior to that, a couple of guys you may have heard of were the most recent to achieve such a mark."

The other two most recent were Jordan and Ewing.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

So, Zion has the highest rim volume (per 100 possessions) of the last 20 years, including all players with at least 100 minutes.

His volume is 10% higher than No. 2 (JaVale McGee in 2017), and 15% higher than No. 3 (Giannis this year).

— Eustacchio Raulli (@EVR1022) February 3, 2020

Small Sample Size Alert

But still, incredible stuff early from him.

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Dumb question but what is Rim volume? Thanks

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

Dumb question but what is Rim volume? Thanks

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Super simple, it's just shots generated at the rim per 100.

For example, if you look at Zion you find that right now he takes 23.8 FGAs per 100, and you can also find his shot profile fairly easily; he takes 77.6% of his shots at the rim. That means that now, after 9 games, Zion's rim volume is 77.6% of 23.8 = 18.47 at-rim attempts per 100.

For comparison, Giannis this year is taking 29.7 FGAs per 100, and 48.9% of them come at the rim. So 48.9% of 29.7 = 14.52 at-rim attempts per 100.

McGee in 2016-17 took 20.8 FGAs per 100 and 77.7% of them came at rim. So 77.7% of 20.8 = 16.16 at-rim attempts per 100.

So you can see how Zion's Rim Volume is drastically higher than even the closest competitor; 2.31 attempts per 100 more.

This is important because at-rim attempts are the most efficient shots in basketball, and elite players can get them at will. To generate this many at-rim scoring attempts so easily is a sign that your offense is pressuring defenses a lot, and likely to result in super efficient scoring. Which is exactly what we're getting from Zion so far: even with early FT struggles, he's currently averaging 61.5% TS, which is +5.5% better than league average and is the second highest on the team after JJ among players averaging at least 25 minutes per game.

Just for some comparisons, here are some historical rim-volume seasons. Not saying Zion is better than these guys, or having a better year than these guys did. It's just for comparison of this one particular thing. Can't get the numbers for any season before 2000-2001, as shot tracking data is not publicly available before then.

Zion, 2019-20: 18.47 per 100
Giannis, 19-20: 14.52 per 100
McGee, 16-17: 16.16 per 100

Lebron 08-09: 9.52 per 100
Shaq 00-01:10.89 per 100
Griffin 10-11: 9.34 per 100
Dwight 10-11:9.25 per 100
AD 2017-18:9.57 per 100
Cousins 15-16:10.26 per 100

So you can see, 18.47 is truly ridiculous. Essentially anything over 10 is out-of-this-world high. Anything over 12 is all-time. Anything over 14 is just absurd, and when you get to 18+ it's a club consisting of only 1 person and it's rookie Zion. Just silly numbers.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Super simple, it's just shots generated at the rim per 100.

For example, if you look at Zion you find that right now he takes 23.8 FGAs per 100, and you can also find his shot profile fairly easily; he takes 77.6% of his shots at the rim. That means that now, after 9 games, Zion's rim volume is 77.6% of 23.8 = 18.47 at-rim attempts per 100.

For comparison, Giannis this year is taking 29.7 FGAs per 100, and 48.9% of them come at the rim. So 48.9% of 29.7 = 14.52 at-rim attempts per 100.

McGee in 2016-17 took 20.8 FGAs per 100 and 77.7% of them came at rim. So 77.7% of 20.8 = 16.16 at-rim attempts per 100.

So you can see how Zion's Rim Volume is drastically higher than even the closest competitor; 2.31 attempts per 100 more.

This is important because at-rim attempts are the most efficient shots in basketball, and elite players can get them at will. To generate this many at-rim scoring attempts so easily is a sign that your offense is pressuring defenses a lot, and likely to result in super efficient scoring. Which is exactly what we're getting from Zion so far: even with early FT struggles, he's currently averaging 61.5% TS, which is +5.5% better than league average and is the second highest on the team after JJ among players averaging at least 25 minutes per game.

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Thanks, great post

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Just for some comparisons, here are some historical rim-volume seasons. Not saying Zion is better than these guys, or having a better year than these guys did. It's just for comparison of this one particular thing. Can't get the numbers for any season before 2000-2001, as shot tracking data is not publicly available before then.

Zion, 2019-20: 18.47 per 100
Giannis, 19-20: 14.52 per 100
McGee, 16-17: 16.16 per 100

Lebron 08-09: 9.52 per 100
Shaq 00-01:10.89 per 100
Griffin 10-11: 9.34 per 100
Dwight 10-11:9.25 per 100
AD 2017-18:9.57 per 100
Cousins 15-16:10.26 per 100

So you can see, 18.47 is truly ridiculous. Essentially anything over 10 is out-of-this-world high. Anything over 12 is all-time. Anything over 14 is just absurd, and when you get to 18+ it's a club consisting of only 1 person and it's rookie Zion. Just silly numbers.

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I'm guessing they don't have these stats for when Wilt played. I would bet he would be up there somewhere.

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Originally Posted by P_B_&_G

I'm guessing they don't have these stats for when Wilt played. I would bet he would be up there somewhere.

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Nope, no stats for Wilt. Shot tracking data doesn't exist (at least for public view) from before 2000-01. If I could, I would have liked to get the numbers for: young Shaq, Wilt, Moses Malone, prime Barkley, prime Jordan, Karl Malone, David Robinson, Ewing, Hakeem. Probably more but they come to mind earliest.

You could (if you had lots and lots of time on your hands and were very very dedicated) go back and watch, say, 100 games from each of these people (aside from Wilt; not enough full games available) in their prime and manually add up the shot attempts and distributions, and track it all yourself.

I am willing to do a lot of boring stuff. I am not willing to go this far :hihi:

I guess if you wanted to do a super super super rough estimation of Wilt, maybe something like this would work:

1961-62 Warriors played at a pace of 131.1. So that means the 1961-62 Warriors averaged about 131.1 possessions per game. So to get his per 100 numbers, you need to multiply his stuff by 0.762.

So he took 39.5 shots per game that year. 39.5*0.762 = 30.09 FGAs per 100.

Wilt wasn't just a power scorer. He had hook moves in his arsenal, and had a very nice finger roll when spinning off from the left block; that's evident in pretty much all of the surviving video of him. He also didn't really tend to fight that hard for deep post position with regularity. So I don't think it's fair to assume he was just dunking everything. Instead, let's say that maybe he shot 65% of his attempts at the rim. This is high, certainly, but not ridiculously high. For comparison, it's higher than 2000-01 Shaq, and higher than 2019-20 Giannis, but lower than 2019-20 Zion.

That would put 61-62 Wilt's rim-volume at 30.09*0.65 =19.55 shots per 100. Which would be a comfortable all-time record.

Now this is just a super rough calculation. We don't actually know what percentage of his shots he took at the rim; nobody was tracking at the time, and there aren't hundreds and hundreds of surviving games to calculate it from today. If you assume he took 57.6% of his shots at the rim (which is equal to Shaq's final season in LA) then it's more like 17.33 per 100. If you assume he took 84% at the rim (which is equal to a fairly typical DeAndre Jordan season with the Clippers) then it's more like 25.27 per 100. Wilt was a far more versatile scorer than DJ though, so this is probably a little high.

Conclusion

So I think it's probably a fairly decent estimate to put prime Wilt's rim volume at somewhere around 20, but anywhere between about 18 and 23 seems like it could be right. Again, super rough calculations here. Do not take this as gospel :hihi: but it's a fun thought experiment.

2019-2020 Rookie PIPM Leaders (> 200 MP)

Top-10:

1. Zion Williamson +1.57
2. Terence Davis +1.24
3. Brandon Clarke +1.05
4. Cody Martin +0.67
5. Ja Morant +0.48

6. Garrison Mathews +0.34
7. Jaxson Hayes +0.21
8. Michael Porter +0.06
9. Justin James -0.02
10. Naz Reid -0.04 pic.twitter.com/ZnI9tApe98

— BBall Index (@The_BBall_Index) February 16, 2020

It took Zion 10 games to have the best PIPM among all rookies :hihi: just hilariously outperforming the rest of the class.

For reference, Zion's PIPM is made up of a +1.81 OPIPM, and a -0.24 DPIPM, so he is still slightly negative on defense by this metric, but his offensive contributions drastically overwhelm that and make him a strong positive.

At a PIPM of +1.57, Zion has the 59th best PIPM in the NBA, currently tied with Devin Booker (Bookers OPIPM is twice as high as Zion's, but his DPIPM is nearly -2, so it balances out).

Zion's PIPM of +1.57 is second on the team, after Derrick Favors' PIPM of +1.93.

Our top 5 players are:

1) Derrick Favors: +1.93
2) Zion Williamson: +1.57
3) Josh Hart: +0.87
4) Jrue Holiday: +0.85
5) Brandon Ingram: +0.46

Zion is blowing my mind every game. Him and Ingram could be NOLAs version of Shaq and Kobe. Ingram needs to establish himself as the aggressor, he has it in him to be even better than he is right now.

I think we will catch Memphis by late March.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

2019-20 Rookie PIPM Leaders

Top-10:
( > 200 MP)

1 Zion Williamson +2.08
2 Terence Davis +1.13
3 Brandon Clarke +1.02
4 Cody Martin +0.37
5 Garrison Mathews +0.33

6 Naz Reid +0.32
7 Ja Morant +0.01
8 Kendrick Nunn -0.04
9 Justin James -0.14
10 Jaxson Hayes -0.17 pic.twitter.com/W20eKWEkiF

— BBall Index (@The_BBall_Index) March 1, 2020

What’s PIPM? Lol I need to up my advanced basketball terminology

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

What’s PIPM? Lol I need to up my advanced basketball terminology

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Player Impact Plus Minus. It's not perfect (no stat is, and neither is the eye test) but it's probably the best advanced stat out right now. Here's a brief explanation of it from the bball index website, where they host the data:

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Player Impact Plus-Minus (PIPM for short) is a plus-minus impact metric that combines luck-adjusted plus-minus data with the value of the boxscore and a handful of interaction terms to estimate a player’s value over the course of a season.[...]

The main feature of PIPM that differentiates it from other more advanced metrics is the inclusion of luck-adjusted plus-minus data, which uses a methodology designed by Nathan Walker. In short, his methodology uses more statistically predictive factors of a team’s offensive and defensive rating (points scored or allowed per 100 possessions) to estimate what the team’s ORTG or DRTG should be without the variance that some statistics have. The most clear example of this variance comes from opponent 3P%, which a team has relatively limited control over but can drastically shift how a team looks in raw ORTG and DRTG.

Using these luck-adjusted plus-minus values as an input, along with the boxscore, PIPM is one of the most accurate publicly available impact metrics in terms of predicting future results.

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Link to the full explanation here: https://www.bball-index.com/player-impact-plus-minus/

League Leaders in PIPM this year overall, for context:

1. Giannis +9.14
2. Harden +6.45
3. Kawhi +6.10
4. LeBron +6.07
5. Luka +5.39
6. Gobert +4.72
7. C.Paul +4.59
8. Middleton +4.55
9. Tatum +4.45
10. A.Davis +4.39

Saw some Twitter person claiming that Zion's stats through 15 games can't be compared to Ja's because Ja's longer season has let his stats decline, and that it's easy to play this well for short sample sizes. While we all know smaller samples have their problems, I figured that it would only be fair to compare Zion's first 15 games to Ja's first 15 games. For honesty.

Zion's first 15: 24.1pts per game, 6.8rbds, 2.1asts. 59.3%FG, 41.7%3pt (0.8 per game), 64.8%FT. W/L record: 8-7

Ja's first 15: 19.1pts per game, 3.1rbds, 6.3asts. 46.7%FG, 40.6%3pt (2.1 per game), 76%FT. W/L record: 5-10

So Zion still wins in ppg, rpg, FG%, technically 3PT% although we all know the volume is way lower, and W/L record.

So I guess if we're comparing like-with-like, Zion still wins.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Saw some Twitter person claiming that Zion's stats through 15 games can't be compared to Ja's because Ja's longer season has let his stats decline, and that it's easy to play this well for short sample sizes. While we all know smaller samples have their problems, I figured that it would only be fair to compare Zion's first 15 games to Ja's first 15 games. For honesty.

Zion's first 15: 24.1pts per game, 6.8rbds, 2.1asts. 59.3%FG, 41.7%3pt (0.8 per game), 64.8%FT. W/L record: 8-7

Ja's first 15: 19.1pts per game, 3.1rbds, 6.3asts. 46.7%FG, 40.6%3pt (2.1 per game), 76%FT. W/L record: 5-10

So Zion still wins in ppg, rpg, FG%, technically 3PT% although we all know the volume is way lower, and W/L record.

So I guess if we're comparing like-with-like, Zion still wins.

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The question then becomes whether or not Ja has any 15 game stretch that is comparable. I know that is a pain to look in to and I'm not asking you to do it. I suspect that he does not.

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Originally Posted by boardtown

The question then becomes whether or not Ja has any 15 game stretch that is comparable. I know that is a pain to look in to and I'm not asking you to do it. I suspect that he does not.

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Well, I'm totally fine with looking it up because I am just that kind of guy :hihi:

Here's Morant month by month:

October + November (17 games): 18.6pts/3.2rbds/6.2asts on 45/41/76
December (11 games): 15.5pts/3.3rbds/6.5asts on 48/37/84
January (15 games): 17.5/3.8/8.3 on 54/37/75
February til Now (11 games): 18.7/3.4/6.8 on 49/25/75

So just going by months, I would say no. The closest he comes would be January, I'd say: 15 games exactly, 8.3 assists per game, and really good FG% of 54%. But as we can see, the 3pt shooting dropped off a bit in that month, and the scoring was still nearly 7pts per game under Zion in this stretch.

If you abandon months and just look for random 15 game stretches, I don't think anything really comes out much better than January does, from my subjective evaluation.

Oh, and neither Ja nor Zion are very good overall defenders right now. I'd say Zion's better because while they're both bad with team defense and help and such, at least Zion isn't complete garbage 1v1 whereas Ja is.

People have got to understand the fact that he's THAT good to be considered ROY and can win it still is amazing. Dude is basically the Incredible Hulk already(shout out to pelicandae lol)

Demonstration of Zion's defensive improvement in one basic stat:

Pre Allstar break (10 games), Zion's opponents shot an average of 2.5% worse than their averages against him. But this doesn't tell the whole story; in reality, this is the product of something very tilted. The fact is that opponents were shooting 23.2% worse than their averages from 3pt land, and 10.9% worse from long midrage (15+ feet) but everywhere inside of that, their shooting was way up. Opponents were shooting 17.4% better than their averages against Zion within 6 feet of the hoop. That's terrible. In fact, it's so bad that it's obvious there's some luck-related variance in there; most players don't even shoot that badly from 3 against Kawhi Leonard, and we all know Zion isn't that level of perimeter defender. The numbers are inflated, but they still tell a fairly clear story; Zion's really bad on defense inside of the arc.

Post Allstar break (8 games), Zion's opponents have shot 2.9% worse than their averages; barely better overall than before. But the ridiculous imbalance between internal and perimeter defense was settled out a bit. Opponents are still shooting worse from 3 when matched up with Zion, but it's not 23.2% worse, it's only 7.9% worse; this is much more sustainable, and reflects more accurately on Zion's actual effort out there. Similarly, while opponents are still shooting better than their averages at the hoop, it's only by 0.6%. This is much more reasonable than the ridiculous +17.4% that was being given up before the all-star break. The numbers are still subject to small sample size and everything, but again, it tells a good story; the defense has shown signs of improvement.

Of course, this is just one basic way of looking at defense and we all know that defense is more than just opponent FG%. There's help to consider, team defense, and sometimes even if you play bad defense, the other guy just can't hit a shot. Similarly, you can play perfect defense and just get unlucky. This is especially true when dealing with small sample sizes (10 games or fewer for both samples, here). But I don't think we can deny that the improvement since All-Star break has been fairly vast.

I also want to add that Anthony Davis is 0/5 on shots with Zion as his primary defender :hihi: so it's good

Just want to add for the previous post on Zion's defense: that huge swing on Opponent 3pt%, despite Zion mostly playing the same, is a little bit more proof towards the fact that actually, 3pt shot defense is largely perfunctory.

That is to say, given that you can't make any contact (unlike in the paint, where bumps are often allowed) and you usually can't jump to block the shot or anything, there's usually not much a player can do to force a miss at the perimeter. The most you can do is sometimes make someone rush a shot if they're scared of the closeout, for example.

The best perimeter defense is, and always will be, making them not take the shot at all. Once they're shooting, there's very little you can do. The best perimeter defenders are great because they make the opponent uncomfortable, don't give them space, crowd them, and make the best option to give the ball up; they aren't great because they magically make people shoot 25% below their averages via some arcane magic.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Just want to add for the previous post on Zion's defense: that huge swing on Opponent 3pt%, despite Zion mostly playing the same, is a little bit more proof towards the fact that actually, 3pt shot defense is largely perfunctory.

That is to say, given that you can't make any contact (unlike in the paint, where bumps are often allowed) and you usually can't jump to block the shot or anything, there's usually not much a player can do to force a miss at the perimeter. The most you can do is sometimes make someone rush a shot if they're scared of the closeout, for example.

The best perimeter defense is, and always will be, making them not take the shot at all. Once they're shooting, there's very little you can do. The best perimeter defenders are great because they make the opponent uncomfortable, don't give them space, crowd them, and make the best option to give the ball up; they aren't great because they magically make people shoot 25% below their averages via some arcane magic.

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From what I can tell bad three point defense is usually leaving the shooter wide open, which seems to usually be the result of bad team defense as opposed to any one individual player.

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Originally Posted by Freyfamilyreuni

From what I can tell bad three point defense is usually leaving the shooter wide open, which seems to usually be the result of bad team defense as opposed to any one individual player.

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Bad 3pt defense is either leaving them open (like you said) or fouling them. That, or doing dumb stuff like jumping past them completely.

Speaking from experience of playing ball, Zions individual defense imho is actually really good on the perimeter - especially for a big man. He’s not great, yet. Great is either being an elite rim protector or taking on the toughest defensive assignment when your team needs it. He’s not at that stage, yet. But if you play or played ball and watch Zion, he’s definitely a good defender because he’s not a weaklink.

The NBA game is all about attacking weak defenders and pressing on that issue until an adjustment is made.

Here’s the thing, I don’t see opposing team’s and their coaches picking on Zion as a rookie. Ofcourse I don’t have statistics to back this up, but just watching the game...out of let’s say a 93-95 avg possession game, I might count 3-4 possessions a game where Zion is actually involved individually in defense.

Notorious pick and roll teams like The Blazers or OKC hardly ever puts him in pick and roll actions (they prefer Favors or Melli) and the reason I believe is because he’s not slow footed and smaller players fear the combination of a frontcourt player who they aren’t sure they can beat off the dribble and the fear of getting their shot blocked. Even for the pnrs he’s involved in - he does a great job of containment until Jrue or Zo gets back and he floats over. In 19 games, how many times can we honestly count he’s been defending downhill? Tbh...I’m really trying to think of 1 time he’s forced in an action of defending guard or big. Teams just don’t do it to him.

His help defense at this time needs some fine tuning though, but in my honest opinion, that’s only from the viewpoint that you expect G-SF style defensive aggression. While saying that, if he’s not a rim protecting big on a nightly basis...he has to add the G-SF style aggression in help defense if he ever wants to impact the game on the defensive end more than just ensuring his assignment is zoned out the game on the corner. In this aspect, this is where he’s talking about “getting his legs under him” and in this aspect I do feel he may need to drop 20-25 pounds.

The foundation of reading what’s coming and not giving up live cuts on his assignment is where it needs to be and improving every game though.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Saw some Twitter person claiming that Zion's stats through 15 games can't be compared to Ja's because Ja's longer season has let his stats decline, and that it's easy to play this well for short sample sizes. While we all know smaller samples have their problems, I figured that it would only be fair to compare Zion's first 15 games to Ja's first 15 games. For honesty.

Zion's first 15: 24.1pts per game, 6.8rbds, 2.1asts. 59.3%FG, 41.7%3pt (0.8 per game), 64.8%FT. W/L record: 8-7

Ja's first 15: 19.1pts per game, 3.1rbds, 6.3asts. 46.7%FG, 40.6%3pt (2.1 per game), 76%FT. W/L record: 5-10

So Zion still wins in ppg, rpg, FG%, technically 3PT% although we all know the volume is way lower, and W/L record.

So I guess if we're comparing like-with-like, Zion still wins.

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Would love to see these numbers on a per 36 basis since both players are starters and get starters minutes

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

Would love to see these numbers on a per 36 basis since both players are starters and get starters minutes

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Per 36 numbers:

Zion's first 15 games: 30.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists.
Ja's first 15 games: 24.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 8.0 assists.

Obviously efficiencies remain the same per 100.