Originally Posted by
Pelicanidae
I feel like the first 10 points per game he gets should be basically just pencilled in before each game. I have no doubt in my mind that he can pick up 10 points a night on just putbacks, transition plays, and lobs, which means that he really only needs 8 points from actual play-calls to get up to 18 points a night. And given the possibility of free throws, that's like what, 3 possessions a night? Should be easily do-able.
What's most interesting to me is that although we have a bunch of guys like Lonzo and Jrue who are good rebounders for their position, we don't actually have anyone on our roster who has been a monster glass cleaner throughout their career. Favors is the best rebounder in our starting lineup, and his career high in RPG is 8.7, and that was 5 years ago when he was 22. Obviously playing without Rudy and with more pace will give him the opportunity to up his rebounds again, but I wouldn't be surprised if Zion was our best rebounder in his rookie year. His nose for the ball is just absurd, and his second jump is quicker and more explosive than most people's first.
I'm not guaranteeing it, obviously that's impossible. And who knows, maybe Zion takes until Christmas to really get into the swing of things. That's perfectly possible. But I just feel extremely optimistic for him.
That said, we do need to make sure we aren't placing unreal expectations on him.
Giannis in his rookie season put up 7/4/2 on 41% from the floor.
Gobert in his rookie year put up 2/3.5/0.2 on 48% from the floor.
Draymond Green put up 3/3/1 in his rookie year. 32% from the field.
Now obviously Zion is coming in at a much higher level than those guys, so we expect him to be more in line with the other instant-stars, like Luka Doncic, Ben Simmons, etc. But if he does put up stats more in line with, idk, 14/6.5/2 on 50% from the floor, then that's totally fine as long as he's showing the effort, the growth, etc, that we expect from him.