Originally Posted by
Pelicanidae
We do both accept that shot attempts matter, but you know, at this point they're both taking fairly similar quantities. Yes, Lonzo is taking a few more, but then we're at the quibbly point of exactly where the cutoffs lie. We both know volume matters, and we both know percentages matter. The exact ratio-of-mattering is the question at work here: is 7 attempts at 32% more of a threat than 5 attempts at 38%? Is 2 attempts per game, which is what the actual on-court production is so far this season, worth 6% shooting efficiency?
That's a question that I can't set firm limits on, and I would be highly distrustful of anyone who said that they could unless they could provide massive quantities of evidence. What I do know is that so far this year, if I'm a defender, I'm more likely to pay attention to a feet-set, catch and shoot three that toes the line from Bledsoe than I am a janky stepback 28 footer from Lonzo, and I don't think that's a controversial statement among most people.
Lonzo is at his best when he is handling the ball in the half-court fairly infrequently, and when his shooting comes off-ball. Again, not really sure that's controversial at this point. The consequence of this is that when Bledsoe has the ball in his hands - this season - I am tending to be more worried about him than I am of Ball. This is partly because of the shooting but also partly because I know Bledsoe is (and has been for years) a legitimate threat to drive, and I also know that in the event of him doing so he's probably going to make the FTs if I foul. Lonzo presents none of those challenges. So the real question is not ''Is Lonzo a better shooter than Bledsoe'', which is debatable so far this season, but rather, ''is Lonzo's higher volume from 3 compared to Bledsoe worth all of the sacrifices that you make when you place Lonzo on the ball?''
To me, the answer to that is fairly clearly no, which is partly why this discussion came up in the first place: why play Lonzo 36 minutes and Bledsoe 25? Why Lonzo closing games over Bledsoe? That's the initial discussion a lot of this came from, and there doesn't seem to be a satisfying answer to me.