At what point do people

Start viewing the change in Lonzo’s shooting the same way they look at Ingram’s? I have heard a few people still doubting Zo’s improvement, while in the next breath talking about the great change in Ingram’s shooting even though at this point last year they were in the same (poor shooting) place.

I think it’s time we start giving Zo credit for a turnaround, some might not see it the same.

The results speak for themselves. He's done it for long enough that it doesn't feel like a fluke. The one thing I've heard mentioned about "trustworthiness" of increased 3-pt percentage is seeing an equivalent increase in free throw shooting. Lonzo hasn't improved his free throw shooting at the same rate. I wonder why?

At this point, it’s the point of exposing media talking heads who just don’t watch ball like they say they do or obviously get paid to do.
As long as he keeps improving and proving, the circus clowns will start to take notice.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DarkHornet

The results speak for themselves. He's done it for long enough that it doesn't feel like a fluke. The one thing I've heard mentioned about "trustworthiness" of increased 3-pt percentage is seeing an equivalent increase in free throw shooting. Lonzo hasn't improved his free throw shooting at the same rate. I wonder why?

---

The why is simple. A free throw has a mental component that a shot from the field doesn't have. For the most part, a shot from the field is reactionary. Mental toughness is an incumbent trait that all good free throw shooters share as the brain enters the picture big time. That's where Lonzo has to grow.

38.3 on the season.
44% since Feb 1.
58% in the month of March.

It's Lonzo Curry now, fam.

Bunch of reasons for scepticism.

One has already been mentioned: no real improvement in FT shooting despite 3pt improvements. Generally those two things go together; it's not always the case, we all remember Bruce Bowen being a career 39% 3pt shooter while also being a career 57% FT shooter. So you can have good 3pt shooting and bad FT shooting, but that's fairly uncommon.

There's also the consistency argument. Ingram basically hit the season and was shooting well from 3. The change was immediate and bold, and it stuck around; obviously it's cooled off a big (he's not shooting 48% from 3 anymore) but it's remained good. That's not true for Lonzo; he was shooting 33.3% until Christmas, about 25 games, for example. So it's been a sudden, out of nowhere improvement in terms of sustainability.

Thirdly, he still has a tendency to drift towards his old form on step-backs. Credit to him, he only really does it on stepbacks, which is a testament to the work he's put in; to be otherwise so consistent after only really one summer+season of repetition is fantastic, but I do think seeing it rear its head from time to time puts some people off.

Fourthly would probably be his tendency to shoot really really badly in some circumstances. Lonzo is a 32% pullup shooter, and he takes almost a third of his attempts as pullups, so if you see him doing that a lot, it may colour your perception. For comparison, 32% on pullups ranks 5th on the team, behind Zion (lol, 0.3 attempts per game), Redick, Jrue, and Melli. For comparison, Ingram is a much worse pullup shooter (down to 25.9% on the season) but he takes only half the amount, so it influences people's view less than Lonzo, I think.

Lonzo's shooting 40% on catch and shoot 3s, by the way, which is really a huge improvement. Redick leads the team in C&S percentage, at 47.1%, followed by Ingram (41.8%), then Moore (40.5%), then Lonzo at 40%.

These aren't necessarily my personally held opinions; I think his improvement has been huge and notable, and is a credit to both him and Vinson, and while it may not be regularly quite this good, I don't see why he couldn't continue to be at least a decent shooter going into the future. I just think that if you're wondering why some people are doubtful, these may play into it.

Cautiously optimistic. Ingram started the season unsustainably efficient but his efficiency has dropped the last couple of months and may continue to as the sample size continues to grow. Ball has been trending upward for some time now and I’d like to see him finish the season strong to validate the perception of sustained improvement.

When his free throw shooting goes up to a respectable level (rightly or wrongly) would be my guess

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Bunch of reasons for scepticism.

One has already been mentioned: no real improvement in FT shooting despite 3pt improvements. Generally those two things go together; it's not always the case, we all remember Bruce Bowen being a career 39% 3pt shooter while also being a career 57% FT shooter. So you can have good 3pt shooting and bad FT shooting, but that's fairly uncommon.

There's also the consistency argument. Ingram basically hit the season and was shooting well from 3. The change was immediate and bold, and it stuck around; obviously it's cooled off a big (he's not shooting 48% from 3 anymore) but it's remained good. That's not true for Lonzo; he was shooting 33.3% until Christmas, about 25 games, for example. So it's been a sudden, out of nowhere improvement in terms of sustainability.

Thirdly, he still has a tendency to drift towards his old form on step-backs. Credit to him, he only really does it on stepbacks, which is a testament to the work he's put in; to be otherwise so consistent after only really one summer+season of repetition is fantastic, but I do think seeing it rear its head from time to time puts some people off.

Fourthly would probably be his tendency to shoot really really badly in some circumstances. Lonzo is a 32% pullup shooter, and he takes almost a third of his attempts as pullups, so if you see him doing that a lot, it may colour your perception. For comparison, 32% on pullups ranks 5th on the team, behind Zion (lol, 0.3 attempts per game), Redick, Jrue, and Melli. For comparison, Ingram is a much worse pullup shooter (down to 25.9% on the season) but he takes only half the amount, so it influences people's view less than Lonzo, I think.

Lonzo's shooting 40% on catch and shoot 3s, by the way, which is really a huge improvement. Redick leads the team in C&S percentage, at 47.1%, followed by Ingram (41.8%), then Moore (40.5%), then Lonzo at 40%.

These aren't necessarily my personally held opinions; I think his improvement has been huge and notable, and is a credit to both him and Vinson, and while it may not be regularly quite this good, I don't see why he couldn't continue to be at least a decent shooter going into the future. I just think that if you're wondering why some people are doubtful, these may play into it.

---

I wouldn't say that a 42% to 57% is not an improvement in FT shooting. Is it where he needs to be? Heck no, but it is improvement. As far as consistency, I would not get too hung up on his percentage at the beginning of the year as it has gotten better through the year pretty consistently. Remember, he completely changed his mechanics and reworked his shot. Getting comfortable takes time. If he sticks with it, I would expect he may be even a little better next season.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

I wouldn't say that a 42% to 57% is not an improvement in FT shooting. Is it where he needs to be? Heck no, but it is improvement. As far as consistency, I would not get too hung up on his percentage at the beginning of the year as it has gotten better through the year pretty consistently. Remember, he completely changed his mechanics and reworked his shot. Getting comfortable takes time. If he sticks with it, I would expect he may be even a little better next season.

---

To quote myself:

Quote:

---

These aren't necessarily my personally held opinions; I think his improvement has been huge and notable, and is a credit to both him and Vinson, and while it may not be regularly quite this good, I don't see why he couldn't continue to be at least a decent shooter going into the future. I just think that if you're wondering why some people are doubtful, these may play into it.

---

Don't need to explain that to me. I'm happy with the progress he's made and I think it's probably going to stick around. I was just answering the question as to why some people might not be all that confident in Lonzo's shooting long term. Those are the reasons I can think of.

Stick around? He could still improve even more. He doesnt even have a full year in since completely changing the shooting form he has used his entire life. Obviously we cant expect as great an improvement this offseason, but with the work ethic he has displayed I would bet that you will see further improvement next year including his step back

Just figured I'd drop this since it was relevant to the shooting of both Ingram and Lonzo.

Quote from Ingram: ''I came in here in August, just me and Fred, nad he was telling me different things to do with my legs, my feet, how I was shooting the ball mechanically and at first it was hard, I didn't truly believe in it, but kept doing it over and over again, I came in every day and I started to see the progress from it.''

Quote from Vinson: ''The one thing with Brandon is that his balance was off. He was losing a lot of his power, it was going into the floor instead of using it to propel his body up, and it affected his shot. I kinda aligned his body a little more, so we started with the foundation of his feet being square.[...] I use the phrase 'all ten toes to the rim', and so I wanted that to be the start, the foundation, which are the feet for the shooting. He was tremendously, not only receptive, but his responses to the stuff we were doing I thought he was playing a joke on me, I'm like man there's no way you're able to do what you're doing, you shouldn't be able to do it that fast.''

Ingram: ''The percentages tell a lot. Of course I've shot the 3 pointer a lot more here but that's all in the confidence that Fred has given me every single day in the stuff that he does and his workouts, so it's definitely been more makes than misses.''

Vinson: ''I was so happy for him, number one that he put in the work, and that he trusted me. Because in development it really starts with a player who trusts who's teaching him.''

Lonzo: ''The way I shoot is completely different from how I used to. Trying to be more consistent and keep the ball on the right side. I think the biggest change is moving it from the left to the right, holding my follow through up more, I have a tendency of dropping it when I shoot, so those are the two biggest things I'm trying to work on.''

The other thing about Ball's free throw shooting is he has only shot 67 total this season. That's not a large enough sample size to decide whether or not he has made improvements from the free throw line. It's very possible that he's just not able to get into a rhythm at the line because he's only shooting 1 per game (this is an entirely different issue with Ball, but that's beside the point). As he gets to the line more, I'd assume his confidence and focus would increase; and with that we would see a rise in efficiency.

On the flip side, he has attempted 363 shot from 3 on the season. That's not at all an insignificant number to be shooting at 38.3%, with a number of those being of the dribble and step backs. These are real changes for Lonzo. He's so coordinated that it was bound to happen at some point, but I definitely did not see it happening this year to this extent.

I'm sold.

The guy has an insane work ethic. Barring some injury (knock on wood), this is his new baseline and he will comtinue getting better.

The people who discount him never seem to never factor his work ethic in.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Just figured I'd drop this since it was relevant to the shooting of both Ingram and Lonzo.

Quote from Ingram: ''I came in here in August, just me and Fred, nad he was telling me different things to do with my legs, my feet, how I was shooting the ball mechanically and at first it was hard, I didn't truly believe in it, but kept doing it over and over again, I came in every day and I started to see the progress from it.''

Quote from Vinson: ''The one thing with Brandon is that his balance was off. He was losing a lot of his power, it was going into the floor instead of using it to propel his body up, and it affected his shot. I kinda aligned his body a little more, so we started with the foundation of his feet being square.[...] I use the phrase 'all ten toes to the rim', and so I wanted that to be the start, the foundation, which are the feet for the shooting. He was tremendously, not only receptive, but his responses to the stuff we were doing I thought he was playing a joke on me, I'm like man there's no way you're able to do what you're doing, you shouldn't be able to do it that fast.''

Ingram: ''The percentages tell a lot. Of course I've shot the 3 pointer a lot more here but that's all in the confidence that Fred has given me every single day in the stuff that he does and his workouts, so it's definitely been more makes than misses.''

Vinson: ''I was so happy for him, number one that he put in the work, and that he trusted me. Because in development it really starts with a player who trusts who's teaching him.''

Lonzo: ''The way I shoot is completely different from how I used to. Trying to be more consistent and keep the ball on the right side. I think the biggest change is moving it from the left to the right, holding my follow through up more, I have a tendency of dropping it when I shoot, so those are the two biggest things I'm trying to work on.''

---

I hope Vinson doesn't get poached before working with Zion and Hayes.

I’m sold on Lonzo and Ingram simply for the fact that they put so much work in during the summer. They are hungry and have the desire to be great. Some players have all the talent in the world but fall out of love with the game or don’t have the attitude necessary to get better. These guys have all the talent in the world and they desire to be great.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pelafanatic

On the flip side, he has attempted 363 shot from 3 on the season. That's not at all an insignificant number to be shooting at 38.3%, with a number of those being of the dribble and step backs. These are real changes for Lonzo. He's so coordinated that it was bound to happen at some point, but I definitely did not see it happening this year to this extent.

---

Someone, can't remember who so I can't cite the source right now (sorry), did a study on how many 3s it takes in career before we can consider it ''stable''. We all know that Zion, for example, isn't hugely likely to be a 40%+ 3pt shooter on huge volume despite the fact that he's shooting over 40% now, and a huge reason that we know that is sample size; he's taken 13 of them, total. That's not nearly enough to make any projections on. So how many shots do you need before percentages stabilise and become predictors of future success?

Well, the answer is, if I remember rightly, about 750 attempts. There's some variance for age, where obviously younger players have a little more room to grow than older players, but in general someone's career 3pt shooter tends to stabilise around 750 attempts. Lonzo has now taken 883 threes, and has shot about 34.5% on his career. So that would tell us that he's fairly likely to be about a 36% 3pt shooter in the future.

Now, that's not entirely fair on Lonzo because he has changed his form massively recently, so it may well be the case that what we have to do is wait until he's made about 750 attempts with the new form before considering it ''stable''. Luckily, at his current rate, 750 attempts is basically two seasons, and we have him next year too. So we can make that evaluation fully before committing to his salary long term, if there's any regression next year. I don't expect there will be (at least not any major regression; maybe he shoots 37% instead of 38% lol) but still, we have an advantageous contract situation there.