Thinking Basketball Analysis - Brandon Ingram

Thinking Basketball, run by Ben Taylor, is not perfect (no analyst is) but it is probably the best analytics YouTube channel, and Taylor is very very good overall. He's just put up a video analysing Brandon Ingram, so I figured that since Ingram is on our team now, everyone would probably wanna see it.

I'll write up key points later for if people don't wanna watch it, but for now I'm just posting the vid.

Key takeaways from this analysis video.

Pros:

- Solid handle, especially for his height
- Skilled at using his length to overcome some of his athletic shortcomings
- Unusual, but often effective footwork on drives
- Has a good up-fake, and uses it often enough to draw fouls, sitting in the 89th percentile when it comes to FTAs
- Good midrange shooter, sitting in the 89th percentile as an overall midrange shooter
- Comfortable taking ball-handling duties, and can be a willing passer at times
- Has shown flashes of high level passing ability, making a number of nice passes out of the pick and roll
- Skill as a secondary passer can help make up for some of his shooting issues, helping him unlock high leverage plays when placed next to a legitimate playmaker who can scramble a defense
- Shows high quality defensive flashes, particularly by making use of his length when defending smaller guards
- Good and switchable help defender, who can defend guards and wings with equal ability due to his huge wingspan and height advantages


Cons:

- Lacks verticality and practical, in-game athleticism, which leads to weak finishing (only 53rd percentile in at-rim fg% last season)
- Physique and lack of strength leads to him being easily moved by defenders, especially on drives.
- Often too passive on offense, giving up good looks due to being indecisive, and settling for poorly selected shots
- Far from perfect shot profile: nearly 50% of all his shots come from the midrange, with the midrange being some of least efficiency shots you can take
- Inconsistent playmaker, often wasting 10 seconds or more on the shotclock shifting in and out of position before making a play or a pass, even when multiple options present themselves to him.
- Limited by a lack of pull-up, and spot-up shooting, being a career 33% 3 point shooter with a relatively slow release. He also doesn't take the threes very often, and his subpar career FT shooting doesn't lend a great deal of hope towards reliability from beyond the arc anytime soon.
- Slow feet get him out of position fairly often on defense.
- Poor lateral quickness makes it hard for him to change directions on defense, which is heavily exploitable against heavy screening offenses and by shifty ball handlers
- Lack of strength lets stronger opponents overpower him when he's defending them, particularly in the post
- Has occasional mental lapses that let him get exploited when he's the off-ball defender, giving up layups, missing assignments in transition, etc etc

Summary: Reminds Ben a little of Michael Cooper, who was a long defender who could get steals and disrupt offenses, especially when there was a defense around him that could cover his mobility issues, and had enough vision and ball handling ability to act as a secondary playmaker on the break or in the halfcourt. Better offensive player than Cooper was, but needs to improve drastically as a shooter, and doesn't project massively well as an offensive centrepiece. Should polish his secondary skills, such as playmaking, defense, etc, and projects well if he does that as the third option on a high level team.

Final sentence of the video: ''Overall, I think he would do well to finish 2020 as a top 75 player in the NBA, and one day to peak at a sub All-Star level.''

Advanced stat profile:
Scoring Rate: 71st percentile
TS%: 44th percentile
Creation: 60th percentile
Spacing: 15th percentile
Passer Rating: 56th percentile
Offensive Load: 69th percentile
Backpicks BPM: 161st in the NBA
Goldstein PIPM: 202nd in the NBA
Luck Adjusted RAPM: 166th in the NBA

Thanks for posting, i think if Ingram stays healthy he will lead the Pels in scoring ... differently think he has a break out year

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Originally Posted by Liltiger

Thanks for posting, i think if Ingram stays healthy he will lead the Pels in scoring ... differently think he has a break out year

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I think he could have his best year so far in terms of the advanced stats, but I would be shocked if Ingram finishes the year as one of our best 4 players. That's fine, he doesn't have to be our best player in order to have a good year, or our leading scorer. I'm not asking for anything like that from him.

Don't be surprised if he actually scores less this year than last year, depending on how Gentry decides to dish out minutes, but if Ingram integrates well into the offense, plays within the flow of the team, and works more to enhance his playmaking, I think he can be a more impactful and valuable player even if his raw scoring stats drop.

I see that as a ''breakout'' year, because of the actual impact difference, but I know there are some people out there who would see his raw box score stats drop and see that as a regression, so whether or not you think that's a breakout is up to you, I guess.

He is very unique imo. I would like him to be a lot more aggressive on defense. Having Zion will make everyone play better.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You pretty much have to throw out his Laker stats since he's now playing in a much different system with Gentry.

And he will be at least this team's 3rd highest scorer. No doubt. You just cant waste 6'9"/6'10" talent like that.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

You pretty much have to throw out his Laker stats since he's now playing in a much different system with Gentry.

And he will be at least this team's 3rd highest scorer. No doubt. You just cant waste 6'9"/6'10" talent like that.

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I don't doubt he'll be the team's second or third highest scorer, sure. I said I'd be shocked if he finished as one of the top 4 best players, not highest scorers.

You also don't have to throw out his Laker's stats at all.

Imagine if we did that any other time. ''Should we trade for X player?'' ''Nah, because as soon as they get here we have to throw out all their stats and we won't know if they're good or not.''

"peak at a sub all-star level" smh lol..

You would post a video like this my good friend Mr. Pelicanidea..

Players with an ability to average 28PPG with a high percentage.. (even for a short period of time) While being one of the best isolation scorers in the league at 22 years old don't "peak at sub all-star level".

Analytics, cant tell you who he is.. he wasn't utilized under optimal conditions.. I guarantee, he will be one of the best players on this team.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWY60jD44uA

He sure has dunked on a lot of centers considering how limited he's supposed to be athletically..

I’d rather he be 15-16ppg with 3+ blocks/steals and 4 assists per game.

I’ve watched Ingram since his college days. I still think he’ll never be a #1 option AND THATS OKAY. He’s more of an ultra talented cog in a system kind of like an elite Wide Receiver. He likes to play in the flow as opposed to force feeding him.

And I think this team might just be the perfect place for him to become one of the best Jack-of-all-Trades in the league where he focuses half of his energy on being a defensive nightmare and the other half making smart decisions in the half court on offense.

When he is locked in and feeling comfortable...it’s literally a joy to watch him control a team. There’s a Rondo-vibe almost to him

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Originally Posted by Nichols

"peak at a sub all-star level" smh lol..

You would post a video like this my good friend Mr. Pelicanidea..

Players with an ability to average 28PPG with a high percentage.. (even for a short period of time) While being one of the best isolation scorers in the league at 22 years old don't "peak at sub all-star level".

Analytics, cant tell you who he is.. he wasn't utilized under optimal conditions.. I guarantee, he will be one of the best players on this team.

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It's funny, back when the trade was undecided and we were still talking about which deals for AD we preferred, people on here were posting the Thinking Basketball analysis of Lonzo Ball as evidence of his high upside, his defensive capabilities, passing skills, etc.

Now that the trade is over, suddenly only someone like ''you'' [read, me] would post something like this :hihi:

I'm sorry, anyone who cites ppg as their argument needs to just stop. Andrew Wiggins average 24ppg for an entire season and he's hot garbage. Thanks for your input.

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Originally Posted by akhan786

I’d rather he be 15-16ppg with 3+ blocks/steals and 4 assists per game.

I’ve watched Ingram since his college days. I still think he’ll never be a #1 option AND THATS OKAY. He’s more of an ultra talented cog in a system kind of like an elite Wide Receiver. He likes to play in the flow as opposed to force feeding him.

And I think this team might just be the perfect place for him to become one of the best Jack-of-all-Trades in the league where he focuses half of his energy on being a defensive nightmare and the other half making smart decisions in the half court on offense.

When he is locked in and feeling comfortable...it’s literally a joy to watch him control a team. There’s a Rondo-vibe almost to him

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I can't agree with the last sentence since watching Rondo is very much not a joy to me :hihi:

But yeah, I agree. I would much rather he average 16ppg (which is actually what I projected him to average on this team, this year, as the third highest scorer) on improved efficiency, taking better shots rather than more shots, working on his outside game, putting energy into consistency on defense, and working as that secondary playmaker than I would him jack up more shots and average an empty 21ppg.

16 points + good defense + good playmaking + spacing >>>>>>>> 21 points + meh defense + meh playmaking + bad spacing

Given BI's similar build, handle, ability to grab a defensive board and push the ball up the court, and flashes of really good playmaking, last season I was really wishing he'd make Lamar Odom his inspiration instead of Durant. Different mentalities though, I fear; Lamar was an incredible team player, made good decisions, and was fulfilled by watching his teammates succeed. BI seems currently driven to prove that he can be an elite scorer in the league at all costs, even if there are are potentially other parts of his game (passing, boards, defense) that could provide greater synergy with the team.

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Originally Posted by SoCal4Pels

Given BI's similar build, handle, ability to grab a defensive board and push the ball up the court, and flashes of really good playmaking, last season I was really wishing he'd make Lamar Odom his inspiration instead of Durant. Different mentalities though, I fear; Lamar was an incredible team player, made good decisions, and was fulfilled by watching his teammates succeed. BI seems currently driven to prove that he can be an elite scorer in the league at all costs, even if there are are potentially other parts of his game (passing, boards, defense) that could provide greater synergy with the team.

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Man.....people forget how smooth Lamar Odom was back in the day. He could hoop with just about anyone

He really could! He fit that paradigm of a big playmaking forward that could initiate the offense on his own after a board without getting it to a guard, which just sped everything up, kinda like Lebron and Draymond Green, just more offense and better handle than Draymond and obviously less defense. Prime Odom was one of those player you could pretty much plug into any team and they would immediately be better. Extremely underrated player.

I’m team Ingram! :fro1::fro1:

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Originally Posted by luckyman

You pretty much have to throw out his Laker stats since he's now playing in a much different system with Gentry.

And he will be at least this team's 3rd highest scorer. No doubt. You just cant waste 6'9"/6'10" talent like that.

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I’m ready for the season to start and Ingram’s game to do the talking. No sense in going back and forth with some people who did nothing but trash Ingram along with Ball. It wasn’t until we made the trade where some starting back tracking knowing soon these 2 were going to be studs. Ingram very well might be the teams leading scorer where he is that good. When the Lakers decided to start using him the right way he was averaging 25+ ppg. He’s a legit triple double threat who can get you 30 points on any given night while flashing defensive potential with the best wings in the game. He is just 22 years old!!

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Originally Posted by Nichols

"peak at a sub all-star level" smh lol..

You would post a video like this my good friend Mr. Pelicanidea..

Players with an ability to average 28PPG with a high percentage.. (even for a short period of time) While being one of the best isolation scorers in the league at 22 years old don't "peak at sub all-star level".

Analytics, cant tell you who he is.. he wasn't utilized under optimal conditions.. I guarantee, he will be one of the best players on this team.

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Seems everybody that actually knows basketball gives Ingram nothing but ringing endorsements.. I still have some pretty funny posts saved from a few people around here who trashed Ingram and Ball claiming they were absolute trash and would be average NBA players. The Lakers weren’t even considered a trade partner and anybody that mentioned them was an idiot. I’m pretty darn confident many of us will be right on this one! Best young SF in the NBA!

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Originally Posted by GuardianAngel25

Seems everybody that actually knows basketball gives Ingram nothing but ringing endorsements.. I still have some pretty funny posts saved from a few people around here who trashed Ingram and Ball claiming they were absolute trash and would be average NBA players. The Lakers weren’t even considered a trade partner and anybody that mentioned them was an idiot. I’m pretty darn confident many of us will be right on this one! Best young SF in the NBA!

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Agreed.. I've pretty much learned that going back and forth with these types is pointless. They'll continue to post negative, and backhanded compliments on him. By mid season it will become apparent how off the analysis on Ingram was.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

It's funny, back when the trade was undecided and we were still talking about which deals for AD we preferred, people on here were posting the Thinking Basketball analysis of Lonzo Ball as evidence of his high upside, his defensive capabilities, passing skills, etc.

Now that the trade is over, suddenly only someone like ''you'' [read, me] would post something like this :hihi:

I'm sorry, anyone who cites ppg as their argument needs to just stop. Andrew Wiggins average 24ppg for an entire season and he's hot garbage. Thanks for your input.

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PPG is an indicator of ability.. he was also one of the best isolation scorers in the NBA at 22 years old.. I only said what I said because you're consistently and persistently negative on Ingram. Just seemed fitting that you would create a thread like this.

With that being said, I guess we'll see how it plays out once the season is underway. This isn't a matter me or you can settle with a debate.

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Originally Posted by Nichols

With that being said, I guess we'll see how it plays out once the season is underway. This isn't a matter me or you can settle with a debate.

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Well, we can certainly agree on that much. I was very low on Ingram's first few years in the league, but he has the best possible opportunity to turn it around this year, and (because I root for all of my Pelicans), I very much hope he does.

I'm not going to make any big judgements on him until Christmas. Gotta give him a good sample size of games to get comfortable and settle into the system, same as everyone else gets.

Yea he put up a lot of stinkers during his rookie year, so I get why you feel that way.. I also had my doubts.

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Originally Posted by Nichols

Yea he put up a lot of stinkers during his rookie year, so I get why you feel that way.. I also had my doubts.

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Gotta love it when Ingram is judged on his rookie year.. Convenient for people to ignore how young he is as well. I have already compared him to every SF in the NBA and less then a handful have had better stars to their careers and the ones that did are not just stars but super stars.

I’m still team Ingram! :1pcheer:

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Originally Posted by Nichols

Agreed.. I've pretty much learned that going back and forth with these types is pointless. They'll continue to post negative, and backhanded compliments on him. By mid season it will become apparent how off the analysis on Ingram was.

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Knowledgeable Basketball folks can see that Brandon simply needs to improve his shot in order to become one of the league's ELITE scorers. His length combined with the positions he can play due to his skill set will terrorize other clubs. I'm sure he will work on his shot.

Hell jrue shot 32% from 3 last year and everybody expects that to climb/ BI is going to shine here

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Originally Posted by fullcourtpress

Knowledgeable Basketball folks can see that Brandon simply needs to improve his shot in order to become one of the league's ELITE scorers. His length combined with the positions he can play due to his skill set will terrorize other clubs. I'm sure he will work on his shot.

Hell jrue shot 32% from 3 last year and everybody expects that to climb/ BI is going to shine here

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I think the reason people expect Jrue to improve from 3 is that he spent like 6 or 7 years in a row shooting above league average from 3 on solid volume before regressing. If Ingram had spent 5 years shooting 37% on 4 attempts a game before last season, I'd be more optimistic about his percentages.

Woj on Ingram extension: Pelicans are really high on him, very coachable. Doesn't sound like he thinks an extension is coming before the October 21st deadline though, which isn't too surprising.

— Mason Ginsberg (@MasonGinsberg) October 9, 2019

Figured I'd put this year just cause this was an Ingram thread, even if it's a little off topic.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I think the reason people expect Jrue to improve from 3 is that he spent like 6 or 7 years in a row shooting above league average from 3 on solid volume before regressing. If Ingram had spent 5 years shooting 37% on 4 attempts a game before last season, I'd be more optimistic about his percentages.

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You do realize he had a season where he shot 39% last year right? His 2nd year went great st 33% but he managed an elite FG of 50% which is very good along with his 47% last year. He obviously has negatives but majority of the time nothing you are throwing ouz

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Originally Posted by GuardianAngel25

You do realize he had a season where he shot 39% last year right? His 2nd year went great st 33% but he managed an elite FG of 50% which is very good along with his 47% last year. He obviously has negatives but majority of the time nothing you are throwing ouz

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Everyone here knows you are Ingram's biggest fan, but I hate to tell you this but if he continues to be a ball stopper, as he has been so far, he will not be in the rotation as he is now, or he willl be gone. On multiple occasions last night he forced shots with JJ wide open in corner, Faves 3 ft away, and others. Realize this is he contract year, but if can't pass, we need to pass or move on from him.

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Originally Posted by Silver Nail

Everyone here knows you are Ingram's biggest fan, but I hate to tell you this but if he continues to be a ball stopper, as he has been so far, he will not be in the rotation as he is now, or he willl be gone. On multiple occasions last night he forced shots with JJ wide open in corner, Faves 3 ft away, and others. Realize this is he contract year, but if can't pass, we need to pass or move on from him.

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he did force it some last night.... but the young one's are going to try n make somethin' happen early on.

it is nice to have a guy like him at the end of the shot clock (or even in the playoffs) who can always get a nice shot off on their man. kinda like how durant plagued us

What he displayed in the last game was inexcusable. I would move him as well if he refused to buy into a team concept. What he did was ridiculous, and he's one of the main reasons why the offense was disjointed and the starting line up was yanked.

He's pretty good at making adjustments, I hope the coaches get in his ****** about playing with tunnel vision.

Being uber aggressive is fine so long as you're reading the floor while you're doing it. He wasn't reading at all.

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Originally Posted by fullcourtpress

it is nice to have a guy like him at the end of the shot clock (or even in the playoffs) who can always get a nice shot off on their man.

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If he can ''always get a nice shot off'' on his man, why didn't he do that instead of taking terrible contested midrange fadeaways that got blocked or airballed? Surely a nice shot would be open, or at least hit the rim.

He needs to make quicker decisions. It's fine for him to iso if the initial actions fail and the clock is running down, but it can't consistently stop the ball the way he did in the beginning of game 1 and game 2 if he wants to fit in this offense. There is a level of player you need to be to be able to do that, and that's a top 10-15 guy. There's a time and a place where that sort of stuff can be valuable, but it can't be a defining feature of a good offense.

On a positive note, he has done some nice things with his length defensively.

Oh man... if you guys thought his ball-stopping over-aggressive mid-range game against the Bulls was bad... that was actually some decent shot selection for him compared to what he usually does lolol!

This was the first game I’ve been excited about him. Kept the ball moving, made good reads, moved well off the ball and made a tough 3 pointer. We need him to be a bit more Ariza than Melo, and he didn’t look one bit out of place.

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Originally Posted by JJackisangry

This was the first game I’ve been excited about him. Kept the ball moving, made good reads, moved well off the ball and made a tough 3 pointer. We need him to be a bit more Ariza than Melo, and he didn’t look one bit out of place.

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Agreed.This version of Ingram was perfect, made better decisions, didn't hog the ball,played much smarter basketball.

What did Shamit tweet then delete that got Griff's attention? Seems it was about Ingram.

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Originally Posted by ColoradoCajun

What did Shamit tweet then delete that got Griff's attention? Seems it was about Ingram.

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He called Frank a chucker (which is completely untrue) but he also made a point that Frank doesn’t do enough besides score (which I totally agree with). I do however think Frank is a different option that can drive to the rim and hit his 3’s at a very decent rate which you can never have enough of. I’d like to see him rebound and maybe tag some assists, but other than that he has been very solid.

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Originally Posted by ColoradoCajun

What did Shamit tweet then delete that got Griff's attention? Seems it was about Ingram.

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He asked what, aside from scoring, Frank does to help the Pelicans win basketball games.

Griff said that he was a hard worker, a great team-mate, and a good on ball defender.

I'd agree with the first, I can't judge the second (I'm not on the team) and I'd highly dispute the third, but it seems Shamit probably felt like he was being a bit harsh if Griff was coming out to defend Frank.

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Originally Posted by Silver Nail

Everyone here knows you are Ingram's biggest fan, but I hate to tell you this but if he continues to be a ball stopper, as he has been so far, he will not be in the rotation as he is now, or he willl be gone. On multiple occasions last night he forced shots with JJ wide open in corner, Faves 3 ft away, and others. Realize this is he contract year, but if can't pass, we need to pass or move on from him.

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LoL this is exactly why I don’t read this site for a couple months. Some just have no idea what they are talking about. We have had less then a handful of pre season games and all the sudden players need to be traded? Haha what a joke! Not to mention the player being talked about wasn’t allowed to touch a basketball for near 6 months! I’m not Ingram’s biggest fan but I’ll defend any player when people use their biases trying to bash certain players. Before the Lakers trade there was literally less then a handful of people who thought Ingram and Ball could be even average NBA players. How stupid is that? I have many very funny takes regarding these 2 saved by the know it alls of this site. One hot take was by a know it all was Frank and Keinrich are and will be better then Ball and Ingram? The same trade that I was called an idiot for and would never happened seemed to happen exactly as I said it would. Seems Griffin and Langdon agree with me just a tiny little bit to pair these 2 youngsters as part of the future with Zion instead of shipping them and picks out for other players. I’ll stand by what I say and Ingram will be extended and a Pelican for a long time as a great sidekick and compliment to Zion.

Let's let Ingram play with the team through at least the all-star break before forming conclusions.

let his play determine his value. someone with cap space will offer him a max.... lets see if we want to match it and if not let him walk. we don't have the former management who gave the bag to eric Gordon so hopefully we will be smarter and make better decisions.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

If he can ''always get a nice shot off'' on his man, why didn't he do that instead of taking terrible contested midrange fadeaways that got blocked or airballed? Surely a nice shot would be open, or at least hit the rim.

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being able to get a decent shot off doesnt mean that you will never make a bad decision man..... or take a terrible shot.... or get blocked..... or even shoot an airball.

thats like saying saying if steph curry is such a good shooter than why did he miss that one

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Originally Posted by fullcourtpress

being able to get a decent shot off doesnt mean that you will never make a bad decision man..... or take a terrible shot.... or get blocked..... or even shoot an airball.

thats like saying saying if steph curry is such a good shooter than why did he miss that one

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It's nothing like that at all.

So far, and yes it's just pre-season but these trends existed last year too for him, Ingram has been a consistently poor decision maker. It doesn't matter if you are physically capable of getting shots off if you make such poor decisions that all the shots you take are bad ones.

Everyone takes a bad shot every now and again, it's just reality. Yes, that includes Curry. But when Curry takes a bad shot, we wince and move on, and watch him take 5 good shots straight after. When Ingram takes a bad shot, that's just Ingram, we wince and then wince again when he does it the next possession, then again two possessions later, then again for the fourth time in 3 minutes.

The problem here is your expectations. You think he is going to be able to adjust and adapt his game from day 1? Completely unrealistic. Come back with an assessment after the all star break. Wait for the sample size before you execute him especially when you’re drawing conclusions based on preseason play. It’s downright silly.

If all Ingram did was take bad shot after bad shot he wouldn't have gotten any playing time, nor would he have been wanted by the Pels in prospective trades.

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Originally Posted by Snarly

The problem here is your expectations. You think he is going to be able to adjust and adapt his game from day 1? Completely unrealistic. Come back with an assessment after the all star break. Wait for the sample size before you execute him especially when you’re drawing conclusions based on preseason play. It’s downright silly.

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I've already said that I'm not making any serious judgements until around Christmas, because of the need to get a real sample size and have some adjustment time.

When I criticise Ingram at the moment for his shot selection and his fit with the rest of the roster, that isn't a final verdict. It's literally just a discussion of what he's done so far. Obviously that could change as the coaching settles in, as people fall into their roles, and as the different lineups get solidified.

You're exactly right that it would be downright silly to ''execute'' someone over preseason play. Which is why I'm not doing that.

I saw him make several mistakes tonight..... but he still had the best +/- on the team