Guess CJ's Extension

This team is making sexy eyes at the Luxury Tax down on the other end of the Bar. At some point the Pels are going to get the moxie to not only approach the Luxury Tax, but see if they can leave the club to engage in something short and fun or long and meaningful.


It's obvious the next CJ deal is going to be critical for the Pelicans balancing their books. Harden's next deal is informative not because CJ will get the Harden deal, but because it looks like Harden is leaving money on the table in order to help the 76ers extend a window to contend. My expectation is that CJ will do the same. The last year of CJ's current contract pays him $35m. The Heat signed Kyle Lowry to a three-year, $85 million contract which 12 months later feels like a really bad contract. Chris Paul signed a 4 year / $120,000,000 contract with the Phoenix Suns, including $75,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $30,000,000. That contract, because it's not fully guaranteed and because of how Paul finished the season, feels like a much better deal.

The implications of CJ extension are huge. When it kicks in we'll be paying Zion's max. BI will be up for a super max extension. Herb will need a new contract as well. Trey, Kira, and Jose deals will be on the horizon. Making sure you don't overpay CJ is going to be critical to minimizing how far into the tax you have to go to keep this team together.

So what does the next CJ contract look like?

Low end:4 years for 112 million, average 28aav
High end:4 years for 140 million, average 35aav
Expected:4 years for 120 million, average 30aav

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Originally Posted by Saints63213

Low end:4 years for 112 million, average 28aav
High end:4 years for 140 million, average 35aav
Expected:4 years for 120 million, average 30aav

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You don't think Griff and CJ can agree that he should not get the same value as Chris Paul? Brunson is 5 years younger than CJ and just signed for 4yrs/$104m. Something closer to that range is what I hope CJ will accept.

CJ is a VP of the player's association, just like CP3 is. There's no universe where CJ lets himself get fleeced. He'll be extended for $30m per year at minimum and very probably more - the defining factor to me will be the years. He's 30 now and will be 32 when his deal ends - nearly 33, in fact. So I would quite like it if we could get something like a 2 or 3 year deal, rather than a 4. If it's 3, I would love if that third year was an option for the team but I am also aware that will just not happen.

So yeah something like 3yrs, $100m seems like something I'd view as both plausible and not too horrid. I'd be very concerned that, with a small score-first guard, putting big money on for years after that would be troubling. Even at 35 he'll probably be significantly worse than he is today but at least then he'd be a big expiring and if he wasn't willing to take a pay cut at that point you could consider moving him.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

CJ is a VP of the player's association, just like CP3 is. There's no universe where CJ lets himself get fleeced. He'll be extended for $30m per year at minimum and very probably more - the defining factor to me will be the years. He's 30 now and will be 32 when his deal ends - nearly 33, in fact. So I would quite like it if we could get something like a 2 or 3 year deal, rather than a 4. If it's 3, I would love if that third year was an option for the team but I am also aware that will just not happen.

So yeah something like 3yrs, $100m seems like something I'd view as both plausible and not too horrid. I'd be very concerned that, with a small score-first guard, putting big money on for years after that would be troubling. Even at 35 he'll probably be significantly worse than he is today but at least then he'd be a big expiring and if he wasn't willing to take a pay cut at that point you could consider moving him.

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Chris Paul signed a 4 year / $120,000,000 contract with the Phoenix Suns, that only included $75,000,000 guaranteed. I’m not sure why CJ would expect more than that or consider anything less to be getting fleeced. He’s not on CP3’s level.

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Originally Posted by NMThreeMVP

Chris Paul signed a 4 year / $120,000,000 contract with the Phoenix Suns, that only included $75,000,000 guaranteed. I’m not sure why CJ would expect more than that or consider anything less to be getting fleeced. He’s not on CP3’s level.

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He's also not 37 and he doesn't have the same injury history.

He is going to want his money.

I think it would be reasonable to give him a 2/64 extension, brining his contract to a total of 4/132 starting this year. That will bring career earnings to about 300 million for CJ and generational wealth for he and his family. And at the end of that contract he will be almost 35. He can hang on for a few more years or walk off into the sunset with a bright future ahead of him, doing whatever he wants to do.

For the Pels, I think limiting the number of years is more important that the dollars. I wouldnt want to ride this contract out and then be faced with maybe having to give him 4 years to keep him. Lock into him now for that 4 years, and in most worlds he is really good for at least the first two and probably the first 3. If he is bad by the time the last year comes, he is a nice expiring and you can move him with that Bucks pick and a pick of your own for a good player.

2/64 extension would be my offer

I think we're gonna regret locking CJ into that kind of money for 2 additional years. I'd wait until next off-season, then negotiate a 2 year extension.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I think it would be reasonable to give him a 2/64 extension, brining his contract to a total of 4/132 starting this year. That will bring career earnings to about 300 million for CJ and generational wealth for he and his family. And at the end of that contract he will be almost 35. He can hang on for a few more years or walk off into the sunset with a bright future ahead of him, doing whatever he wants to do.

For the Pels, I think limiting the number of years is more important that the dollars. I wouldnt want to ride this contract out and then be faced with maybe having to give him 4 years to keep him. Lock into him now for that 4 years, and in most worlds he is really good for at least the first two and probably the first 3. If he is bad by the time the last year comes, he is a nice expiring and you can move him with that Bucks pick and a pick of your own for a good player.

2/64 extension would be my offer

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Why the rush to extend him now has been my question this whole time, and I think this is a fair answer. Not sure it convinces me, but it's fair.

Yeah, I am not sure why an extension is needed this year.

hopefully cheaper than his current per year rate at that age come end of his current contract.

How should the Pelicans approach potential extension talks with CJ McCollum and Larry Nance Jr? What about Jaxson Hayes?

I spoke with @DannyLeroux about the Pels' complicated financial future and what they can do to keep this current core togetherhttps://t.co/EoLLv6K7Vt

— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) August 2, 2022

Really good article. Outlines the importance of Griff understanding the hand he's dealt in whether Benson will pay the luxury tax next season. If the Pels can get off to a hot start this year and she can stomach one season in the tax, it would be incredibly helpful for the Pels future cap situation. This would allow us to extend Nance and play more of a wait and see game on Jax.

I have gone back and fourth on whether Jax is viable on this team long term, but I believe that regardless of what you think about him or his game, the best thing for this team long term is if he takes a major leap this season. From an asset perspective alone, that would open a ton of doors for us, not even getting into his possible future on this team specifically.

Of course it is better if he gets better, from an asset perspective. I don’t think anybody would debate the other side of that. But that is outside of the brass control. All then can control is whether they work hard to extend him or not. And they had preliminary talks but the two sides were so far apart that they didn’t even bother reapproaching the convo. B

I have spoken about the “second contract” issue for a few years now and history says that the overwhelming most likely way this plays out is that Hayes eventually is a good rotation player for someone, on a value deal. But that team won’t be the Pelicans. The only question is whether they get SOME value in a trade for him

Can't wait for Hayes to be off this team.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

Can't wait for Hayes to be off this team.

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Why? If we get something for him, fine. But I do not particularly see him as a problem currently.

It is so obvious how the Hayes thing will play out. He is going to be a good player that has some great moments in the future. It will come up 6-8 times a year as some noob user and/or some troll can’t believe we let him go. Enjoy this time now, because that will be even more annoying than having Hayes and being disappointed by him

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

It is so obvious how the Hayes thing will play out. He is going to be a good player that has some great moments in the future. It will come up 6-8 times a year as some noob user and/or some troll can’t believe we let him go. Enjoy this time now, because that will be even more annoying than having Hayes and being disappointed by him

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I just don't understand this because we seen these types of scenarios before. I can understand for newer fans, but for folks that been following this team for a while I just don't get how you can think like this.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Why? If we get something for him, fine. But I do not particularly see him as a problem currently.

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Just tired of how he plays basketball and how he approaches this sport. It makes it even more annoying when folks cape for him and act like just because he does flashy dunks and have "potential" that they get to excuse of ton of his short comings when it's been like 3 years. Just over the excuses.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

Just tired of how he plays basketball and how he approaches this sport. It makes it even more annoying when folks cape for him and act like just because he does flashy dunks and have "potential" that they get to excuse of ton of his short comings when it's been like 3 years. Just over the excuses.

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He played OK last year. He will not get those minutes this year (hopefully). However, I would prefer having him on the bench than just giving him away for a heavily protected 2nd or something as useless as that. To me, it all depends on what we would replace him with. Earlier a Hayes for Stewart (Pistons) swap was suggested. That would be a solid swap for the Pels. Or, if dumping him to create a spot for a more useful player makes sense. It appears he will not re-sign with the Pels, but I have no problem using him if needed while we have him.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

I just don't understand this because we seen these types of scenarios before. I can understand for newer fans, but for folks that been following this team for a while I just don't get how you can think like this.

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When a team is good, new fans outweigh seasoned fans 10 to 1

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

It is so obvious how the Hayes thing will play out. He is going to be a good player that has some great moments in the future. It will come up 6-8 times a year as some noob user and/or some troll can’t believe we let him go. Enjoy this time now, because that will be even more annoying than having Hayes and being disappointed by him

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So basically Christian Wood?

Look, Jaxson may become Siakam 2.0.....

However, he has never shown anything to make anyone believe that is possible.
He is now buried on the Pels bench and they can't afford to allocate $$$ for him with this roster.
Its time to move on, just like it was with Ball.
The best the Pels can be does not include Jaxson Hayes!

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

Just tired of how he plays basketball and how he approaches this sport. It makes it even more annoying when folks cape for him and act like just because he does flashy dunks and have "potential" that they get to excuse of ton of his short comings when it's been like 3 years. Just over the excuses.

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The Pelicans drafted Hayes knowing that he was very raw. You're talking about a guy who started playing basketball towards the end of high school and then 1 and done in college. And, he is literally younger than Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado. To think he would be a polished and developed player at this point, is completely unrealistic. I think its true that we will let Hayes go, and then he will be a good NBA player, and then people will regret letting him go. We are basically taking on the development cost for him to go be good somewhere else and let another team reap the benefit.

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Originally Posted by hornetsrebirth

The Pelicans drafted Hayes knowing that he was very raw. You're talking about a guy who started playing basketball towards the end of high school and then 1 and done in college. And, he is literally younger than Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado. To think he would be a polished and developed player at this point, is completely unrealistic. I think its true that we will let Hayes go, and then he will be a good NBA player, and then people will regret letting him go. We are basically taking on the development cost for him to go be good somewhere else and let another team reap the benefit.

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This would be true if he was really developing, but this guy, three years into a career, still exudes a 'deer in the headlights' aura. That Laker fourth pick in 2019 sures looks bad now.

Major disappointment!!!!!!

...and this is a from a guy who touted JAX as untouchable two years ago.

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Originally Posted by As I See It

This would be true if he was really developing, but this guy, three years into a career, still exudes a 'deer in the headlights' aura. That Laker fourth pick in 2019 sures looks bad now.

Major disappointment!!!!!!

...and this is a from a guy who touted JAX as untouchable two years ago.

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He has shown that he has a nice pure stroke for a big man, and impressively fluid athleticism to go with his size. What he hasn't shown is good bball IQ. Maybe he will never have good bball IQ. Or, maybe that is a product of the fact that he is less experienced and younger than our rookies.

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Originally Posted by hornetsrebirth

The Pelicans drafted Hayes knowing that he was very raw. You're talking about a guy who started playing basketball towards the end of high school and then 1 and done in college. And, he is literally younger than Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado. To think he would be a polished and developed player at this point, is completely unrealistic. I think its true that we will let Hayes go, and then he will be a good NBA player, and then people will regret letting him go. We are basically taking on the development cost for him to go be good somewhere else and let another team reap the benefit.

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Once again I'm over the "he only played 3 years of basketball" excuse. It's not all about what he does in the game, it's also how he approaches getting better and from many reports he just doesn't gets it.

I will sleep fine if he becomes a good player somewhere else. Can't keep wishing and hoping someone finally figured it out after 4 years AND extend him. That's too much for me. I would keep this same energy with anyone.

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Originally Posted by hornetsrebirth

He has shown that he has a nice pure stroke for a big man, and impressively fluid athleticism to go with his size. What he hasn't shown is good bball IQ. Maybe he will never have good bball IQ. Or, maybe that is a product of the fact that he is less experienced and younger than our rookies.

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That's not what we need from Hayes. Dude can barely set a screen, and he is trying to mirror his game after KD or something. Just not a winning a player.

I think for some folks who believe in him fantasize about things that don't contribute to winning basketball games. I can care less if he shoots better or have a handle, he is still a detrimental factor to your team losing based on basic things he CANT do.

It's like having Juju Wright out there man lol.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

That's not what we need from Hayes. Dude can barely set a screen, and he is trying to mirror his game after KD or something. Just not a winning a player.

I think for some folks who believe in him fantasize about things that don't contribute to winning basketball games. I can care less if he shoots better or have a handle, he is still a detrimental factor to your team losing based on basic things he CANT do.

It's like having Juju Wright out there man lol.

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Depends on what you are asking him to do. As a starter or huge contributor, I agree with you. As a bench big, he offers some value. If we can upgrade, I am all for it. But I am not just of the opinion that we are better without him, regardless of any replacement.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

That's not what we need from Hayes. Dude can barely set a screen, and he is trying to mirror his game after KD or something. Just not a winning a player.

I think for some folks who believe in him fantasize about things that don't contribute to winning basketball games. I can care less if he shoots better or have a handle, he is still a detrimental factor to your team losing based on basic things he CANT do.

It's like having Juju Wright out there man lol.

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Ok but learning how to get better at setting screens seems like its something that is achievable. Its easier for someone with great size, athleticism, and shooting touch to get better there than it is for a player to gain those other skills that he already possesses. Dude already has qualities that will contribute to winning basketball games if/when his bball iq gets better.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

Once again I'm over the "he only played 3 years of basketball" excuse. It's not all about what he does in the game, it's also how he approaches getting better and from many reports he just doesn't gets it.

I will sleep fine if he becomes a good player somewhere else. Can't keep wishing and hoping someone finally figured it out after 4 years AND extend him. That's too much for me. I would keep this same energy with anyone.

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Yeah 3 years and 3 different coaches/systems, for a guy who came into the league as a teenager with very little previous basketball, I wonder why he doesn't get it. I understand the frustration because he does have great potential that hasn't been realized yet, but its simply unrealistic to believe he would be anywhere close to his final form at this point.

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Originally Posted by hornetsrebirth

Yeah 3 years and 3 different coaches/systems, for a guy who came into the league as a teenager with very little previous basketball, I wonder why he doesn't get it. I understand the frustration because he does have great potential that hasn't been realized yet, but its simply unrealistic to believe he would be anywhere close to his final form at this point.

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Just curious, when do you think this remarkable metamorphosis will take place and, and better yet, where will he get his minutes this year?

Will he play in front of....

...Zion?
...TM3?
...JV?
...Nance?

Heck, I've even seen a few publications that had H'Gomez listed ahead of him.

So tell me, under what circumstances do you see Willie Green playing him?

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Originally Posted by As I See It

Just curious, when do you think this remarkable metamorphosis will take place and, and better yet, where will he get his minutes this year?

Will he play in front of....

...Zion?
...TM3?
...JV?
...Nance?

Heck, I've even seen a few publications that had H'Gomez listed ahead of him.

So tell me, under what circumstances do you see Willie Green playing him?

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Yeah obviously nobody is saying Hayes should get Zion's minutes. And seeing as he is a big I dont see him competing with TM3 for minutes. With nobody else out I assume he will get like 10-15 minutes a game. Of course its a long season and you expect that guys will be out for some games, in which case he would see more minutes.

As for remarkable metamorphosis... I dont think that young guys becoming more mature is such a remarkable metamorphosis.

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Originally Posted by hornetsrebirth

Yeah obviously nobody is saying Hayes should get Zion's minutes. And seeing as he is a big I dont see him competing with TM3 for minutes. With nobody else out I assume he will get like 10-15 minutes a game. Of course its a long season and you expect that guys will be out for some games, in which case he would see more minutes.

As for remarkable metamorphosis... I dont think that young guys becoming more mature is such a remarkable metamorphosis.

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Again, if there was any growth (particularly between the ears) in three years of 'extended play, I would be right along side you. But, I see no reason to hold out hope that in year four, JAX will experience some mirraculous epiphany which will allow his ability as a basketball player to show itself.

I took criticism from overseas for calling him 'Flash or Crash'. Now, unfortunately, I'll go further and call him 'MOSTLY CRASH'.

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Originally Posted by As I See It

Just curious, when do you think this remarkable metamorphosis will take place and, and better yet, where will he get his minutes this year?

Will he play in front of....

...Zion?
...TM3?
...JV?
...Nance?

Heck, I've even seen a few publications that had H'Gomez listed ahead of him.

So tell me, under what circumstances do you see Willie Green playing him?

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All those guys - with the exception of Zion - were available for the playoff series against the Suns and Willie still found minutes for Jaxson. Willie likes to go 10 deep, and during the regular season either because of planned rest or injury, Jaxson will have an opportunity to get minutes. It's ridiculous to suggest we have any evidence that H'Gomez has done something in the last 3 months to pass Hayes in Willie's rotation.

I mean, Zion is a pretty big addition that you cant just write off. Thats 32-34 mpg at the only position Willie feels comfortable playing Hayes at. You also need to get TM3 more minutes and Nance was fresh off a surgery and had no practice time if we are talking Suns series. Thats at least 40 more minutes needed right there. Where are they coming from? Graham no doubt (who got 10mpg in that series). Still need to cut 30 more. Naji got about 9 a game. Next candidate would clearly be Hayes, who got 14 per game.

I got Hayes as the 10th man going into the season. But as a matchup 10th man, meaning that yes, Willie will almost always play 10, but against smaller teams Naji or Dyson might be that 10th

Of course when Zion rests or JV has a game or two off, Hayes will be a sure fire rotation guy. But that is a rotation player via circumstance, not a rotation player IMO. Willie has played about 840 minutes each of the last 2 seasons in that role. Thats what I would set the Hayes over/under minutes at.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I mean, Zion is a pretty big addition that you cant just write off. Thats 32-34 mpg at the only position Willie feels comfortable playing Hayes at. You also need to get TM3 more minutes and Nance was fresh off a surgery and had no practice time if we are talking Suns series. Thats at least 40 more minutes needed right there. Where are they coming from? Graham no doubt (who got 10mpg in that series). Still need to cut 30 more. Naji got about 9 a game. Next candidate would clearly be Hayes, who got 14 per game.

I got Hayes as the 10th man going into the season. But as a matchup 10th man, meaning that yes, Willie will almost always play 10, but against smaller teams Naji or Dyson might be that 10th

Of course when Zion rests or JV has a game or two off, Hayes will be a sure fire rotation guy. But that is a rotation player via circumstance, not a rotation player IMO. Willie has played about 840 minutes each of the last 2 seasons in that role. Thats what I would set the Hayes over/under minutes at.

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Starting 5 is locked in CJ, BI, Herb, Zion, JV

Jose, TM3, Nance playing big minutes off the bench for sure... but who is the other guy you are playing before Hayes?

same team as toward the last regular season......zion and trey are the added firepower....

CJ, BI, Herb, zion, JV

jose, graham, trey, hayes, nance

healthy team means graham is in his place and will be what he suppose to be.....

im not high on dyson this season..i think he will be our last season trey and may be in Birmingham....this team is focus and locked on being a top 4 seed i believe and i dont think dyson will have the trust from willie to be counted on as a main contributor.......