SI.com '04 Draft Preview/Predictions

Welcome!

Yes, J. Felders is back in the saddle with draft predictions for the 2004 season! Thanks to time zones, this draft snuck up on me (I hate Arizona), so hopefully this doesn't look as rushed as I feel. And for all the jerk-offs and trolls itching to post comments, NO I AM NOT THE SUNS' GM (seriously, why do people keep saying that? "HURR DURR HE KNOWS SO MUCH BCUZ HE'S THE SUNS' GM." I don't even like the Suns....)

Rants aside, this draft promises to be an intriguing one. Word has it that this draft is deep. Sorry, they lied. This draft is only deep if you're looking for a certain position. Teams who need a C or PF, go home. Trade your pick, because it ain't gonna happen outside of the big names. Beyond that, it's the Andris Biedrins Sweepstakes. Teams looking for a SF, start your engines, because it could get wild. Teams in need of SG or PG talent, rejoice! There's hope for you yet.

Depth does not automatically mean "equal value everywhere." The line between "Good pick" and "Grasping at straws" will be blurred. There will be players drafted by position rather than talent. Good players will fall. Trades will happen. So with that being said......let's get this thing rolling.

#1 - New Jersey Nets, Dwight Howard
Word is this kid's got big-time defensive potential, so New Jersey's the perfect fit. Say what you want about their cap situation or their business methods, fact is, they're a solid defensive team that just got a shot of youth. Jermaine & AK47 will whip him into shape, and the rumors of being Brooklyn-bound will keep him town. Lord help them if it doesn't come soon. Kids these days only want the big market......
Oh, and LOLSUNS.

#2 - Houston Rockets, Al Jefferson
WaitwhatisthisIdon'teven.........#3 last season, #2 this season......could Chris Paul replace Mighty Mouse next year? Speculation aside, no, I'm not crazy Rockets fans, put down your torches. Emeka ain't worth the #2 spot. Jefferson is younger and more versatile, and that will pay dividends for a Houston squad that's rapidly improving.......
Oh, and LOLMAVS.

#3 - Atlanta Hawks, Andre Igoudala
Oh, I like this guy right here. Had Houston been in need of a SG/SF, Igloo here would've been #2 in my book. Still, given the Hawks' history of absent GMs, this pick could be anyone. The real question here is: Is this the start of a rebuilding process, or is Andre merely the next Peja: gone with free agency?

#4 - Orlando Magic, Ben Gordon
What is it with these teams with few holes getting top picks? Anyway, it's a well-known fact that their GM's plans can switch in an instant, so no telling. Does he trust Ridnour, West, Abdur-Rahim, and Curry? If he likes what he has now, he'll pick Ben to complete the starting five. If not.....whoever he doesn't want will be on the trading block before you can say "itchy triggerfinger."

#5 - Utah Jazz, Kevin Martin
Uh oh, what have we here? Looks like our first "Grasping at straws" pick of the draft. Like the Magic at #4, this pick depends on how much he likes guys like Perkins and Mo Williams as starters. Honestly, I think it's shooting guard or bust for the Jazz, free agency is a fool's paradise. Don't wait to fix later what you can fix now....even if K-Mart's not quite worthy of being picked at #5. Good, but not that good.

#6 - Houston Rockets, Emeka Okafor
Dis gon b gud. I love ya, Hornets78, but you've got a tough decision here. Last season's Knicks & Clippers proved that hoarding talent should come with a warning label: "Results May Vary." There's money tied up in Etan, Gooden's still developing, and you drafted Al at C. Can't pick another position, because Melo, Manu, and Mouse have their positions on lock. So, the Rockets need to ask themselves: We have 3 young C/PF talents, not counting Brad Miller. Do we feel secure?
Oh, and remember what I said about good players dropping?

#7 - San Antonio Spurs, Josh Smith
Yeah, no way Smith should fall this low. Unfortunately, the teams ahead had better options (or in the case of the Magic, moolah already spent - that means you, Shareef), and so Smith is given the incredible responsibilty of saving the sinking San Antonio ship. He can play both forward positions, and he'll have to play them both well if San Antonio ever wants to see Jason Kidd in Black & Silver again.

But what about Luol? Devin Harris? Where's that SF scramble I mentioned earlier? Stay tuned for more predictions!

#1 - New Jersey Nets, Dwight Howard
Word is this kid's got big-time defensive potential, so New Jersey's the perfect fit. Say what you want about their cap situation or their business methods, fact is, they're a solid defensive team that just got a shot of youth. Jermaine & AK47 will whip him into shape, and the rumors of being Brooklyn-bound will keep him town. Lord help them if it doesn't come soon. Kids these days only want the big market......
Oh, and LOLSUNS.


BSH PICK: Dwight Howard
Who would disagree with this pick? 1/1 so far sir.

#2 - Houston Rockets, Al Jefferson
WaitwhatisthisIdon'teven.........#3 last season, #2 this season......could Chris Paul replace Mighty Mouse next year? Speculation aside, no, I'm not crazy Rockets fans, put down your torches. Emeka ain't worth the #2 spot. Jefferson is younger and more versatile, and that will pay dividends for a Houston squad that's rapidly improving.......
Oh, and LOLMAVS.


BSH PICK: Josh Smith

Man, Pick #2 and we disagree. If we look at the Rockets Roster, what is he missing? Scoring?Nope, got that. Size? Nope got that. Let's look at tendancies. He's shelled out a lot of money to Etan Thomas who at first was doing well: 15 8 and almost 2 blocks last season. That's exactly what I think the Rockets GM wants. Maybe it's a bit high in the draft but a versitle big man is who I'm thinking here: Josh Smith.




#3 - Atlanta Hawks, Andre Igoudala
Oh, I like this guy right here. Had Houston been in need of a SG/SF, Igloo here would've been #2 in my book. Still, given the Hawks' history of absent GMs, this pick could be anyone. The real question here is: Is this the start of a rebuilding process, or is Andre merely the next Peja: gone with free agency?


BSH Pick: Al Jefferson

The only reason I disagree with this pick, is because I disagree'd with the last one. Hear me out. IF the Rockets took Jefferson, this would be the next best pick, but since on my board he's still there. I have to go with Al. Let's look at this team: They're lost with no cornerstone. We all know that a Center is not easy to find, esp not a scoring center. Al Jeff fits in PERFECTLY here. He can go after Peja or Ray Allen in FA and get a top inside scorer and the top outside scorer. Win win for the Hawks. they'll just need to solidy 4 more positions after this pick (YIKES)

#4 - Orlando Magic, Ben Gordon
What is it with these teams with few holes getting top picks? Anyway, it's a well-known fact that their GM's plans can switch in an instant, so no telling. Does he trust Ridnour, West, Abdur-Rahim, and Curry? If he likes what he has now, he'll pick Ben to complete the starting five. If not.....whoever he doesn't want will be on the trading block before you can say "itchy triggerfinger."


BSH Pick: Andre Igudola
I'm going to make this one simple: Andre Igudola.Iggy can jump into the 2 position and make Boris Diaw what he probably should be, a versitile FORWARD that can win 6th man of the year.

#5 - Utah Jazz, Kevin Martin
Uh oh, what have we here? Looks like our first "Grasping at straws" pick of the draft. Like the Magic at #4, this pick depends on how much he likes guys like Perkins and Mo Williams as starters. Honestly, I think it's shooting guard or bust for the Jazz, free agency is a fool's paradise. Don't wait to fix later what you can fix now....even if K-Mart's not quite worthy of being picked at #5. Good, but not that good.


BSH Pick: Okafor
You look at the Jazz's roster and it's not that terrible. They've got a couple of descent 1's that can move to the 2.Solid young guy in shard, good vet in Walker. Inside guy in Perkins that can defend. This is where i'm going to take my first "reach". I don't think the Jazz GM is sold on Perkins, and i'm sure he hates being a bottom dweller. He's not active in the media, but you can tell by his moves he'd like to win now. I think they're going to select Emeka Okafor. He's the best "right now" prospect in the draft and would help make the leagues most formidable front court.

#6 - Houston Rockets, Emeka Okafor
Dis gon b gud. I love ya, Hornets78, but you've got a tough decision here. Last season's Knicks & Clippers proved that hoarding talent should come with a warning label: "Results May Vary." There's money tied up in Etan, Gooden's still developing, and you drafted Al at C. Can't pick another position, because Melo, Manu, and Mouse have their positions on lock. So, the Rockets need to ask themselves: We have 3 young C/PF talents, not counting Brad Miller. Do we feel secure?
Oh, and remember what I said about good players dropping?


BSH Pick: Trade down - OR Ben Gordon
Let's just say the Jazz don't decide to take Okafor here and somehow he falls. You've got to think this GM will be watching "SHART WEEK" all over the news cast because he's going to crap his pants in excitement. Hear me out: Okafor, Josh Smith, Melo, Manu, and who cares. Unfortunately, I don't think he falls.My gut tells me, if all of what i predicted before happens, this pick should be traded down. Since they would have Josh smith I'd wager to say they should make someone take on Etan Thomas' contract as well as a pick in the first round (top 15) to move into this spot. If they pick here this is tough. I'd have to say Ben Gordon here.

#7 - San Antonio Spurs, Josh Smith
Yeah, no way Smith should fall this low. Unfortunately, the teams ahead had better options (or in the case of the Magic, moolah already spent - that means you, Shareef), and so Smith is given the incredible responsibilty of saving the sinking San Antonio ship. He can play both forward positions, and he'll have to play them both well if San Antonio ever wants to see Jason Kidd in Black & Silver again.

But what about Luol? Devin Harris? Where's that SF scramble I mentioned earlier? Stay tuned for more predictions![/QUOTE]



BSH Pick: Deng

An to the Spurs. This pick becomes an easy pick for me. For years the spurs were built on the foundation of Defense and i think it'll happen again. I predict they'll select Deng here and start their building blocks for the future.

Let me know what you think Xist!

Rudy T: I can see the Rockets drafting Jefferson and Okafor, but in the opposite order. Okafor at number 2 and Jefferson at number 6?

Rudy T: Rockets like Smith, but they have a drastic hole at center long-term. Has to be Okafor and his defense and rebounding. They were below average in the both departments.

Interesting. Not a bad pick regardless, but very interesting indeed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BallSoHard

Interesting. Not a bad pick regardless, but very interesting indeed.

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Rudy T: Rockets think Iggy is the best overall prospect in the draft. Does everything well. We felt the same about Manu in 2002 when we got him at number 5. However, I don't see the Rockets taking him at number two due to Manu and Carmelo. Smith is interesting. The question for the Rockets is, Smith and perhaps Okafor? Would be great for the Rockets, but will Okafor or Jefferson drop? Probably not. Big risk on missing out on center especially with Brad Miller disappointing and both Miller and Collins will be a FA after the season.

@JeezyF.Baby: Gotta love it when the NBA GMs (and Rudy T) head to the comments section to give their opinions. Great way to connect with the community. That's the NBA, folks: It's FANtastic (and no, I'm not THAT old. Learn your history, folks.)

@JeezyF.Baby: BSH, great take on the draft. Smith is #2 potential, no doubt. But are the Rockets willing to gamble?

Rockets GM: Tough call. Decided between Jefferson to fill a short term need and another player who could fill a long-term need. Too bad we didn't have the 3rd pick!!! Otherwise, keep fingers crossed!!!!

@JeezyF.Baby: Heard that there's a little mystery surrounding the 8th pick in the draft. Since I stopped at #7, this turns into a "Draft Coverage" article! LOL

With Josh Smith's move into the top 3 (which he rightfully deserves), things get interesting now. The Jazz have made it clear that they're uncomfortable with the #5 pick. Also, Okafor, Gordon, Harris, and Deng are still on the board. It goes without saying that they are likely to be the next 4 players gone. If Gordon heads to Utah, Okafor to Houston, and Deng to San Antonio, Harris will be in limbo, as his fate is tied to #8.

Also, it appears that the lie of "this is a deep draft" is about to be exposed. After Okafor goes, it's nothing but shooting guards and point guards the rest of the way, with the only exceptions being PF Trevor Ariza (who is really more of a SF), SF Josh Childress, C Andris Biedrins, and PF Kris Humphries. That's 4 non-guards...to about 7 talented guards. Yeah! Who needs diversity, anyway?

@JeezyF.Baby: So the Jazz ended up with Gordon....Okafor falls. Houston is in prime position to catch him.

The mystery has been resolved, it's the Suns who end up with the 8th, 11th, 13th, and 14th pick in the draft. Also of note is the Nuggets' acquisition of the Mavs' pick, which clocks in at #9. So, time for some quick picks:

#6 - Okafor, Rockets
Houston reaps the reward of patience here.

#7 - Deng, Spurs
BSH hit the nail on the head for this one.

#8 - Harris, Suns
Surely they don't think SNOW can start? Ha!

#9 - Biedrins, Nuggets
Surely they don't think GEIGER can start? Ha!

#1O - Martin, Pistons
Hopefully K-Mart & Cassell can fill the void left by AI.

#11 - Childress, Suns
They look a bit weak at SF, Josh should help some.

#12 - Ariza, Heat
He's a SF who can back up at PF. And really, can he be any worse than Mike Miller?

#13 & #14 - J.R. Smith & Tony Allen, Suns
Offense & Defense, they should make for a nice one-two SG punch.

#15 - Who Cares? LOLMAVS
FYI, I guess they take Jameer Nelson here. Then trade him.

Can't believe Houston could have had josh Smith AND Okafor SMH.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BallSoHard

Can't believe Houston could have had josh Smith AND Okafor SMH.

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Al Jefferson?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

Al Jefferson?

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Mek has got D

I personally wasn't as big of fan Big Al as Smith for his team. He and the knicks have a pretty stacked lineups. Manu, Melo, Al and Mek. Wowzers

I kinda regret passing on Smith. No lie. Right now I'm not sure if I want Okafor. With Big Al does he make sense? To me Deng is the better prospect. Jefferson will be much better than Okafor long-term and is better overall now especially but Smith could have been my PF even starting now over Etan. I really don't like Okafor and Big Al together in the front court. I'm leaning in Deng just to keep him away from the Spurs.

Rockets GM: Okafor was Van Gundy's pick. I wanted Al Jefferson even though he wanted Josh Smith. I wanted an inside scorer and rebounder. So I let him decide the 6th pick and he went with Okafor's defense. We're gonna move Okafor to center, Jefferson to PF, and go from there. Training camp will be interesting. Some good frontcourt battles with Miller, Okafor, Thomas, Jefferson, and Gooden. I wanted to regretfully thank Sofoklis for his time here. He really was productive as a 2nd round 19 year old player rookie when coming off the bench and starting. We just had to let someone go unfortunately. We had a winning record when he started this past season due to his hard work rebounding and good passing skills for a guy his size. Was a team player. We wish him the best.

@JeezyF.Baby: That's why they hire these guys, to make the tough decisions.

@JeezyF.Baby: I've heard that there are several GMs biting their nails right now. If the Spurs don't pick Deng here, pandemonium will ensue.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Xist2inspire

@JeezyF.Baby: That's why they hire these guys, to make the tough decisions.

@JeezyF.Baby: I've heard that there are several GMs biting their nails right now. If the Spurs don't pick Deng here, pandemonium will ensue.

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Rudy T: Honestly, the Rockets GM wanted to take Deng just to keep him away from the Spurs and plus he had Deng rated much higher overall. But he also had Smith and Iggy rated really high too yet filled a need with Jefferson. Basically he filled two needs with Jefferson and Okafor instead of going with Smith/Iggy and Deng.

Hey, I'm the Suns' GM. Trust me, it's better to fill needs than grab random talent. Otherwise, you're left with a bunch of ill-fitting pieces for whom success as a team is a random factor. Whenever you have the opportunity to fill a hole through the draft, do it. You can't always sign free agents or trade your way out of a problem, it has to start from the ground up.

And no, I'm not the one writing these articles. Never was much of a writer.

@Rudy T: @RocketsGM: Okafor/Jefferson looks alot like the Cato/Sheed combo we had in year one. Only this time you get to add Melo/Manu to them!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Xist2inspire

Hey, I'm the Suns' GM. Trust me, it's better to fill needs than grab random talent. Otherwise, you're left with a bunch of ill-fitting pieces for whom success as a team is a random factor. Whenever you have the opportunity to fill a hole through the draft, do it. You can't always sign free agents or trade your way out. Of a problem, it has to start from the ground up.

And no, I'm not the one writing these articles. Never was much of a writer.

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You're right. I feel alot better filling the needs. Really, I would have been ok with Smith/Okafor as well as Jefferson/Okafor. At least Wally Z gets to keep his backup job.

@JeezyF.Baby: All hell is about to break loose. For all his high-and-mighty talk about "filling needs," the Suns' GM now has a massive talent sitting in his lap. I doubt he's awake, but I'd love to see the look on his face, because I know for a fact that this is a HUGE monkey wrench in the Suns' plans. Dis gon b gud........can't wait 'til tomorrow.