We have such an exciting new squad. A lot of potential. Our team is being built based on a theory on what it will take to win games.
I like referencing the 4 factors of winning. It’s an interesting model that makes a lot of sense. So how do we win games? Of course we have to adjust based on our opponents. But these factors really make sense and I think we are doing a great job meeting the criteria.
1. High FG% 2. Low in Turnovers 3. Offensive rebounds 4. FTA (not FTM)
It will take a lot of work for me to post all the stats we have, or are likely to get, that exceed a lot of our opponents. So I want to encourage y’all to check out the 4 factors and look at the team and the style of play and what we are trying to do....
What I think we will do is steal the ball a lot and block shots a decent amount and create points by going on a DEADLY fast break. We have Ball, Jrue, Zion to create steals and fast breaks. We have players who are great in transition: Hayes, Ball, Zion, Hart, and Redick. Jrue is decent in transition offense but not like Lonzo. This is where Lonzo and players like Hayes and Zion will be LETHAL. We saw what Jaxson did the other night and we know what ZION is capable of. So, I think we will cause turnovers and we will succeed in offensive rebounding.
Look at Zion’s offensive rebounding. Relative to other players he is outstanding here. Look at Favors advance stats. He is probably going to be elite in offensive rebounding. Both guys may be better offensive rebounders than AD. Check advance stats... this is very good news for our squad. We will likely get more offensive rebounds than our opponents.
Getting to the FT line. I’m not sure we are going to be stronger than a lot of playoff teams at getting FTAs. It looks like these guys will get to the line: Zion, Jrue, Ingram, Favors. Am I missing anyone? AD, Lebron, Cousins will definitely get more FTA and probably higher percentage of FTM. I think we will lose in this category against most above average teams. However, as long as we are consistently scoring and rebounding and playing defense and getting to the line and limiting turnovers I think we will be a playoff team....
1. So, I see Gentry getting our big men, 555llbs of muscle, Zion & Favors, to be PHYSICAL with guys like AD, Towns, Jokic, Kristaps, Lebron etc. be physical and play positional defense. Draymond like defense. Push AD around and get the position we want them to be in on the court. Favors AND Zion appear to be able to do this. So WEAR guys down this way....
2. WEAR teams down with our fast break and breakneck pace. We can wear down guys like Rondo, Kawhi, Klay and Steph, Jokic, Lebron. Some of these guys are older and will tire faster. We can outrun any team in the league. This is exactly what we will do. Score points on the fast break. Our defense will be GOOD.
3. 3 point shooting and overall FG%.... we actually have guys who can shoot 3s. Redick, Miller, Moore, Hart, and even the youngster NAW... and believe it or not I think Lonzo can really knock down 3s. He’s not a shooter but he has a 3 point shot that I think will only get better.... Redick, Hart, Miller and Moore are likely to do the most damage. I expect A LOT of 3 point attempts. I expect above average FG% from 3 and from 2s. Lots of dunks, put backs, and 3s. We could be top 12 in FG%
4. The bottom line is we have the youth, athleticism, and talent to win. We have an incredibly balanced team with veterans who have significant experience and know what it takes to win. These vets can mentor our young guys. Favors, Redick, Jrue, Moore, Miller all have experience and they are high character guys who work hard and can lead. Jrue truly can be the leader of this team. If he can improve his decision making, passing, and getting to the line a little more he will be an all star. He’s entering his prime and should be less timid and take over and dominate. He definitely can do this.
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How do y’all think the PELS will win games?
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07-10-2019, 01:33 AMpelicanchampHow do y’all think the PELS will win games?
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07-10-2019, 02:40 AMGuardianAngel25
Good post. I agree the main way this team will win games is going to be our defense that puts us in position for easy points. Ball takes our defense to another level giving us the best defensive back court duo in the NBA. Stopping the point of attack is what makes defenses great and nobody will do that better then us. Then you throw in 2 potentially elite defensive wings in Ingram/Zion and you have maybe the best defensive team in the NBA. Ball is being very under rated offensively and is someone who can be a very good 3pt shooter. Ball is going to completely change the way this team operates offensively giving Gentry almost a prototype PG for his system. Lonzo is a guard version of Ben Simmons but actually has a decent shot from 3pt. Nothing about his on court play scares me. The off court issues worry me a little but now that he’s in Nola and not LA I think it will be close to a non issue..
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07-10-2019, 08:36 AMtyler
Ingram is trash at defense.... Plus I think the clippers will be better at defense than us...
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07-10-2019, 08:46 AMPelicanidaeThe Clippers have the potential to be the best defensive team in the NBA, no doubt. Them being better than us is no problem. We could easily be top 5 though, and I'll take that on a team with so much youth and so many rookies.Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler
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07-10-2019, 08:55 AMEman5805Yeah. No he’s not. At all. Not elite. But trash means you haven’t seen him playQuote:
Originally Posted by tyler
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07-10-2019, 09:01 AMPelicanidae
I agree with a lot of what you've written. I think there's very little doubt that when our offense works best, it will be as a result of good defense. While I'm perfectly happy with the amount of shooting the team has, at least for now, we aren't a team with snipers at every position and that means that our best offense will come in transition. Luckily, that's what Gentry wants from us anyway, so I don't see any issue with that. Defense creates fastbreak opportunities, of course, and it also mitigates the damage an opposing team can do to you with their superior shooting, so there's no doubt there will be focus on that.
Defense really should be our calling card. Fastbreak offense and pace jumps off the page more to a casual fan, and that will definitely be important to us, but think about it this way: we have the ability to field entire lineups, one through 5, with our shortest player being Jrue Holiday. Honestly, a lineup like Lonzo, Holiday, Ingram, Zion, Favors (likely starting lineup) would have problems creating offense in the half court, there's no doubt, because there is definitely a lack of real shooting there, but the defense would be absolutely crushing. The only team that has the potential to put out a better defensive lineup is the Clippers, if they were to roll out something around Beverley/Kawhi/George and fill in the other slots depending on matchups. We should be aiming to lead the league in steals and deflections, or come close to it. Hopefully Bzdelik takes the job he was offered, because his preferred defensive system is to switch everything, and we have a team almost designed to match that. Lonzo can guard 1 through 3, Jrue can guard 1 through 4, Ingram can guard 1 through 3 (although he needs to improve his off-ball defense a LOT), Zion can guard 1 through 5, and Favors can guard 3-5. That's incredibly defensive versatility for just one lineup, and I haven't even got to guys like Hart, NAW, and Hayes, who all provide switchability on D as well.
I do have some minor disagreements, but they really are minor. For example, you have Jrue listed as getting to the free throw line a lot. Of course that may happen, but Jrue is 29 and his career high in free throws per game is 4, coming last year. He's always been disrespected by the refs, and as a young team I can't see the referees being significantly more generous with the whistle for him this year than last. I also think Zion needs to be listed a free throw getter as well. He's just such a physical mismatch problem that there will be times he gets calls that are kind of sketchy: think prime Shaq. Just difficult to officiate with any degree of certainty, leading to probably more whistles than he might deserve. I think we got a look at that in his Summer League appearance: he got 6 FTAs in 9 minutes of play. Do I expect that to translate directly to the league? No, of course not, but I could easily see him putting up 6 or 7 FTAs per game which would put him in the top 15 in the league.
Overall, I'm entering this season with a lot of optimism. Obviously things could change, things could go wrong, and there could always be injuries (fingers crossed that that's no real issue for us this year) but just based on the team on paper and what I know of their abilities, I think we really could be a playoff team. There's an extent to which that depends on other teams as well, so it's not guaranteed, but I think it's a real possibility for us to be in that 7th or 8th seed spot by the end of the season, which would be something very few people expect from us the year after losing AD. -
07-10-2019, 09:03 AMPelicanidaeYou're right. He needs to improve his off-ball D a lot, and his lack of strength means that even with his height and length, he can't really guard 4s or 5s like he should be able to, but he's a capable on ball defender across three positions. That's not trash. There's a lot of improvement he needs to make, undoubtedly, but he's not Steph Curry on defense or anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eman5805
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07-10-2019, 09:12 AMPELICANSFANThe Clippers are probably better at defense than any other team in the NBA. As far as Ingram, are you just pulling that out of the air or have you ever watched him play? He is far from trash on defense. He is a pretty good defender.Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler
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07-10-2019, 09:13 AMHartOfaPelicanClearly, you have not seen him play! He’s actually an above average defender. Kuz makes was the one that was trash on the Lakers.Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler
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07-10-2019, 09:29 AMSaints#34
This is going to be a fun team to watch if nothing else. Fast, young, lots of energy.
The Pels to me have been the most fun to watch when Jrue was at his best pestering people and poking balls loose like in the playoffs against Portland. Now we have essentially a whole team of that. I’m excited.
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07-10-2019, 09:41 AMbustahJust another fan valuing a bunch of nuffies opinionsQuote:
Originally Posted by Eman5805
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07-10-2019, 11:32 AMtyler
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/r...RPM/position/5
He has potential but to say he is poor (or trash) defender is very debatable -
07-10-2019, 11:32 AMtyler
But hey I don't know anything lol
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07-10-2019, 11:35 AMPELICANSFANSo, your whole argument is a statistical chart you found on the internet? Notice where Kawhi is listed? Do you honestly believe there are 44 SFs that are better defenders than him (and Lebron is top 10)?Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler
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07-10-2019, 11:51 AMtyler
What I'm saying is he has potential but as of right now he's not a good defender... I remember when ppl was saying tyreke was a good defender but he never was I'm just trying to be realistic... Im not staying we won't be a great defensive teams but looking further into Ingram and looking at his defensive stats he wasn't all that but like I said I don't know anything..:huh:
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07-10-2019, 12:01 PM6warddudeQuote:
Originally Posted by tyler
stats tells half truths...you have to use the eye test also smh........kawhi and barnes are the best SF on the list and look were they are ranked.... -
07-10-2019, 12:03 PMHornetGuruIngram is a very good defender you’re nutsQuote:
Originally Posted by tyler
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07-10-2019, 12:14 PMtylerHey I'm glad you think that :2thumb:Quote:
Originally Posted by HornetGuru
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07-10-2019, 12:16 PMtyler
So what I'm saying is I'm willing to stand here corrected...just show me facts that say otherwise.
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07-10-2019, 12:18 PMtyler
Maybe I shouldn't say trash but is it safe to say below average:confused:
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07-10-2019, 12:22 PMSleeperIn one of these threads there are stats that show Ingram played great defense on opposing star players. Usually from the point guard and wing position. So he can play great defense when challenged. I think consistency is the only issue but when he is asked to guard some of the best players, he rises to the occasion.Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler
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07-10-2019, 12:35 PMPelicanidae
A huge part of Ingram's defensive woes (which are real) is who he's asked to guard, his focus, and his slim build. It basically comes down to this: if he's guarding someone who is 6'9 or under, and he's locked in, and they aren't super physical, he's great. That's why he's played good defense on a bunch of star players in the NBA: because a lot of stars fit those criteria.
For example, when asked to guard CJ McCollum, he held him to only 7 points over 32 possessions, which is pretty damn good. Equally, he held Paul George to only 12.5% from the floor over 31 possessions as primary defender, which is again, very very good. He did a number on Khris Middleton, holding him to 6 points across 27 possessions, shooting barely 40% from the floor. He held Doncic to 25% from the floor across 21 possessions as primary defender.
That's all pretty good.
The problem with Ingram is that he loses focus a lot, and if someone is a bully who is willing to put their body into him, he struggles a lot. That's why someone like Garrett Temple, who is FAR from a star player, can shoot 72% from the floor when guarded by Ingram, why Jimmy Butler literally shot 100% when guarded by Ingram, and why Jayson Tatum shot 75% against Ingram.
Simply put, he needs to be CONSISTENTLY focused, and as we all know, he desperately needs to put on 10, 15, 20lbs of muscle as soon as possible. But he has real ability on that end of the floor when he's given sensible matchups and puts his all into it. Will he ever be a DPOY candidate? No. Will he ever make an all-defensive team? Who knows, but probably not. Does he have the makings of a perfectly capable defender? Yes. -
07-10-2019, 01:19 PMpelicanchamp
If Ingram adds more strength and about 10lbs muscle and plays with more confidence he could be an asset to this team. I’m skeptical of Ingram atm because of his stance stats tell a very discouraging story. He has to improve a lot and be a two way player. Either that or he has to score a ton and get to the line very often. He has some of the characteristics that a star player might have. Freaky body type, very difficult to guard, high volume high percentage scorer, etc. he’s very quick and can explode on opponents.
To be a major player or borderline star he has to improve his footwork, his off the ball defense and offense, his defense overall, his rebounding, his ability to get to the FT line plus his 3 point shot,
Players can improve leaps and bounds. It’s been done and I haven’t given up on Ingram. He’s a good facilitator and he is a very capable scorer. He scores on very elite defenders...
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07-10-2019, 01:20 PMpelicanchampQuote:
Originally Posted by pelicanchamp
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07-10-2019, 02:17 PMtylerBut that's the thing.... That could be said about a lot of players... That's where the potential comes from because he was able to do it in spurts... I would like to see it for the whole season not just a a few games... But hopefully with a team with Jrue lonzo Zion and favors they can either hide him or he becomes motivatedQuote:
Originally Posted by Sleeper
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07-10-2019, 05:02 PMNichols
Shots from at least 15 feet away went in 3.4 percent less frequently when Ingram was there to contest, and the effect was even more pronounced on three-pointers, where opponents shot just 30.7 percent, 4.7 points lower than the 35.4 average. For reference, Kawhi Leonard lowered the effectiveness of these same shots by 2.1 and 3.1 respectively, and he is quite good!
https://www.thebirdwrites.com/2019/6...o-holiday-zion
Brandon Ingram 41.6 30.7 DFG% Second row 3PT percentage..
Klay 43.8 37.9
Kawhi 42.7 33.3
Draymon Green 45.4 40.4
Paul George 44.9 51.5
Brandon Ingram is clearly an above average on ball defender. Off ball he needs to improve his awareness. To say he's a trash defender is absurd. -
07-10-2019, 05:17 PMluckyman
Off ball I blame the Lakers coaching last year. People overplay the Pelicans "dysfunction" last year, but the Lakers were flaming trash top-to-bottom.
And those flames aren't all the way out yet. -
07-10-2019, 05:23 PMNicholsAgreed, the numbers I posted make it clear that guys don't shoot as well when Ingram guards them. As a Lakers fan (new Pels fan) I can attest to this.Quote:
Originally Posted by luckyman
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07-10-2019, 05:29 PMNichols
Also Jimmy Butler shoots no where near 100% against Ingram. smh
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07-10-2019, 05:35 PMPelicanidaeYou should probably tell the NBA stats page that. According to the NBA's official data, Ingram was the primary defender on Butler for 16 possessions last season. Butler's FG% on those possessions was 100%, a clean 2 of 2 from the floor. Butler didn't take many shots on those possessions, choosing to pass, and as a result his teams produced 18 points on those 16 possessions. Obviously you could argue that Butler only shot twice in those 16 possessions BECAUSE Ingram denied him shots, which may be true. You'd have to specifically watch those possessions back, unless you have a perfect memory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nichols
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07-10-2019, 05:41 PMNicholsYou clearly tried to paint a narrative that Butler abuses Ingram on offense. 2 of 2 is meaningless. You strike me as a well informed poster here. But what you attempted to do just now is dishonest.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
I personally watched their matchups. Ingram made it difficult for him, which is why he elected to not press his own offense against him. -
07-10-2019, 05:47 PMNichols
Also you don't need a perfect memory.. ask any Laker fans on this board. Jimmy isn't as aggressive when Ingram is on him. Same could be said of Paul George.
Last two games against Jimmy Ingram outscored him. Second to last game he scored 36 points on 16 for 20.. That's a 80% FG percentage. -
07-10-2019, 05:57 PMPelicanidaeNot really, I pointed out that Butler shot 100% against Ingram (which is true) and that when he was assigned to guard Butler, the numbers that got put on the Lakers were bad. 18 points over 16 possessions is 1.12ppp, which is not good. Now, I'm totally happy to admit that, like I said, you could argue that Butler only shot twice in those possessions because Ingram denied him shots. That could easily be the case. I literally said that verbatim in the post you're responding to. But unless you have absolutely crystal memory of every possession played in every game, you'd have to watch the games back to know whether that was the case, or whether it was a case of the Philly offense just slicing the Lakers up overall.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nichols
Saying that 2/2 is meaningless is kind of weird because if you actually look up Ingram's defensive stats, you find that he didn't actually defend any individual for huge numbers of shots per game at all. The most of anyone is Justin Holiday, who he guarded for 11 FGAs in one game. That's the most he guarded any single player in a single game. Justin Holiday shot 54% on those shots.
Other bad FG% that Ingram gave up when he defended them: 53.5% on 7.5 FGAs per game guarding Evan Fournier, 50% on 5.0 FGAs per game guarding Avery Bradley, 60% on 5.0 FGAs per game guarding Ben Simmons, 57.1% on 5.7 FGAs per game guarding Iman Shumpert, 70% on 3.3 FGAs per game guarding Kevin Durant.
On the other hand, there are plenty of individuals who he defended well: He held CJ McCollum to 42.1% on 6.3 FGAs per game, and as I mentioned in the original post, he did a real number on Paul George, holding him to only 12.5% on 4 FGAs per game (they only played 2 games against each other, so that's 12.5% on 8 total attempts, or 1 of 8 shooting).
It's hard to get much larger sample sizes because Ingram simply didn't guard that many people for that many possessions. Instead, he guarded a ton of different people for only a handful of possessions each time. -
07-10-2019, 06:01 PMPelicanidae
Also, just as a reminder, I am defending Ingram here. You wouldn't know because you are relatively new to the board, but I spent a long time absolutely eviscerating Ingram for his god awful, downright garbage disgusting advanced stats. I am trying to give him as much credit as possible here. I think he can be a strong on-ball defender 1 through 3. I'm just not going to pretend he's been some constant lock-down DPOY type.
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07-10-2019, 06:05 PMNichols
"Saying that 2/2 is meaningless is kind of weird"
Should I really have to explain why it doesn't make sense to build a narrative around 2/2? When you post that Butler literally shot 100% against Ingram you are creating a narrative that doesn't line up with reality.
For those who've actually watched Ingram play there is no question about his on ball defense. I'll post this for you again..
Brandon Ingram 41.6 30.7 DFG% Second row 3PT percentage..
Klay 43.8 37.9
Kawhi 42.7 33.3
Draymon Green 45.4 40.4
Paul George 44.9 51.5
Those guys are elite defenders. Ingram's data falls right in line with theirs. There is no getting around it. -
07-10-2019, 06:12 PMNicholsI don't think anyone is saying he's a "constant lock-down DPOY type" at present.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
I've noticed in many forums that a position that is a minority one is made out to be representative of a perspective that is shared by many when it isn't. Then a counter argument is made against a view that hardly anyone adheres to.
Ingram has work to do off ball, I will also agree that he has trouble on 4s and 5s because of his lack of strength.
Something you touched on has validity, and it drove many in the Laker fanbase crazy.. Ingram was allowed to zone, basically play free safety on defense at times. I suppose it was a scheme implemented by the coaching staff to clog up passing lanes. Hopefully that's rectified in a new environment. I don't agree that he's likely to not ever be a lock down defender. -
07-10-2019, 06:15 PMPelicanidaeYou're missing the point where I literally concede that it's a small sample size. I just put 100%, which is entirely factually accurate. If someone else wants to read a ''narrative'' around that, then they can, but that's not my intention. If I wanted to say that Butler put like, 150/150 on Ingram, then I'd literally just say it. I've also pointed out that it's impossible to use BIG sample sizes for Ingram because he just DIDN'T GUARD ANYONE that much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nichols
It's also stupidly disingenuous to compare Ingram's defense there to guys like Klay and Kawhi.
Who were the top 10 most guarded players for Ingram this year? Justin Holiday, Garrett Temple, Tyreke Evans, Avery Bradley, Andrew Wiggins, Chandler Hutchison, Evan Fournier, CJ McCollum, Royce O'Neale, Paul George. That is precisely 2 top tier scorers, in PG13 and McCollum, and I already noted multiple times that he defended those two names well.
Who were the top 10 most guarded players for Kawhi? Trevor Ariza, Justin Holiday, Kyle Anderson, Kevin Durant, PJ Tucker, Iman Shumpert, Khris Middleton, Jimmy Butler, Aaron Gordon, Paul George. There's 4 All-NBA calibre players on that list, and Aaron Gordon is still very, very good.
And Kawhi was guarding them far more frequently than Ingram was. Ingram guarded PG13, for example, for a total of 8 field goals all season: Kawhi guarded PG13 for 18, literally more than twice as many. Remember how Ingram didn't guard ANYONE for more than 11 FGA in a game? Kawhi guarded 5 different guys more than that, and one of them was Kevin Durant.
I'm giving Ingram a lot of credit here. He's shown a lot of potential as a defender, especially on ball. He did a fantastic job on PG13 and McCollum, amongst other names. But can we please not put him in a list with 2x DPOY Kawhi Leonard, 1x DPOY Draymond Green, and DPOY finalist PG13 and pretend like he was on their level? That's just setting him up to look stupid. -
07-10-2019, 06:19 PMPelicanidaeYou literally put him in a list that contained 3 DPOY awards and another DPOY Finalist, and then said that ''his data falls right in line with theirs, there's no getting around it''. If that's not putting him in line with DPOY type defenders, I don't know what is.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nichols
I hope Ingram can improve off ball, and I hope he works hard with the training staff that we have for our team to put on some of that weight that will help him guard up. He does have a lot of potential. I'm just saying that as much as he's shown great signs on-ball, he's also shown some troubling signs as well and that it's hard to set hard limits on sample sizes because, as you point out, he kinda played free safety on D a lot and that means he doesn't really HAVE big, solid defensive sample sizes. At least not many of them. Whenever you draw figures for him, they're going to be based on small samples, because he just didn't have any big samples against anyone.
Yes, that means data is more likely to be flawed. But there's nothing we can do about that until Ingram starts actually sticking to a man and trying to lock them down more consistently. -
07-10-2019, 06:19 PMNicholsThat data was posted to counter this narrative that Ingram is a trash defender, not to suggest he's just as good as the aforementioned. You won't find anyone that believes he is. I agree with the majority of what you're communicating.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelicanidae
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07-10-2019, 06:24 PMNichols
I guarantee you.. Pelican fans will be more than pleased with Ingram's defense. We'll just have to let time be our arbiter on this matter. And in fairness to you, I know it wasn't you who said he was a trash defender.