Nets looking to add Jrue???

https://basketball.realgm.com/wireta...ire-Third-Star

Could be interesting adding Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen and possibly Spencer Dinwiddie

Could just be a crazy rumor?

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Originally Posted by Butters

https://basketball.realgm.com/wireta...ire-Third-Star

Could be interesting adding Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen and possibly Spencer Dinwiddie

Could just be a crazy rumor?

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I cant think of a type of player we need less than Levert. Allen is a lower ceiling Hayes that will be paid sooner.

Only way I'd be interested in Nets is if it's a 3 teamer and I get pieces that actually fit with my core. Need low volume, defensively versatile guys who can catch and shoot from 3. Nets pieces dont fit that

Probably just a crazy rumour. In any case, not interested; I actually agree with MM that LeVert is totally uninteresting, and I also agree that Allen could be made irrelevant by Hayes within the span of his rookie deal.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Probably just a crazy rumour. In any case, not interested; I actually agree with MM that LeVert is totally uninteresting, and I also agree that Allen could be made irrelevant by Hayes within the span of his rookie deal.

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Make no mistake, Nets are interested. They were interested prior to the deadline and will be when trade market opens back up but they don't have the things the Pels want/need. Prince fits somewhat, so if you could move Levert somewhere for a great shooter or two, plus you got Prince and maybe some far out future picks, then we can talk. But it wouldn't be this offseason. It would be next trade deadline at earliest

You will see far fewer trades and movement this offseason than ever because you won't have 10+ teams coming off a season they deem unsuccessfullike we normally do. Disappointment breeds aggressiveness, but nobody was devastated this postseason (if the season is cancelled). Or, even if we do have some sort of makeshift playoffs, the teams that lose will blame the conditions on the loss -- our guys were too rusty, there were no fans so the results were different than they would have been, etc.

Big moves come from disappointment, failing to meet expectations, revelations that the roster doesn't work as constructed in a playoff series, etc. With this stuff going on, expect to see a lot of status quo going into next season

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Make no mistake, Nets are interested. They were interested prior to the deadline and will be when trade market opens back up but they don't have the things the Pels want/need. Prince fits somewhat, so if you could move Levert somewhere for a great shooter or two, plus you got Prince and maybe some far out future picks, then we can talk. But it wouldn't be this offseason. It would be next trade deadline at earliest

You will see far fewer trades and movement this offseason than ever because you won't have 10+ teams coming off a season they deem unsuccessfullike we normally do. Disappointment breeds aggressiveness, but nobody was devastated this postseason (if the season is cancelled). Or, even if we do have some sort of makeshift playoffs, the teams that lose will blame the conditions on the loss -- our guys were too rusty, there were no fans so the results were different than they would have been, etc.

Big moves come from disappointment, failing to meet expectations, revelations that the roster doesn't work as constructed in a playoff series, etc. With this stuff going on, expect to see a lot of status quo going into next season

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Oh, I'm sure they're interested. I just also know a bunch of teams are interested, and I don't see much reason to give this one more credence overall. Maybe I'm wrong to be so dismissive, but I'm okay with taking that risk here.

Generally though, I agree with regards to seeing things stay pretty much where they are. There'll be a few moves, inevitably, mostly around the margins and potentially surrounding the draft (I can't see us going into this draft with 3 second round picks and using them all, for example; would be poor value) but I don't think there will be much groundbreaking going on, if anything.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Make no mistake, Nets are interested. They were interested prior to the deadline and will be when trade market opens back up but they don't have the things the Pels want/need. Prince fits somewhat, so if you could move Levert somewhere for a great shooter or two, plus you got Prince and maybe some far out future picks, then we can talk. But it wouldn't be this offseason. It would be next trade deadline at earliest

You will see far fewer trades and movement this offseason than ever because you won't have 10+ teams coming off a season they deem unsuccessfullike we normally do. Disappointment breeds aggressiveness, but nobody was devastated this postseason (if the season is cancelled). Or, even if we do have some sort of makeshift playoffs, the teams that lose will blame the conditions on the loss -- our guys were too rusty, there were no fans so the results were different than they would have been, etc.

Big moves come from disappointment, failing to meet expectations, revelations that the roster doesn't work as constructed in a playoff series, etc. With this stuff going on, expect to see a lot of status quo going into next season

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Look I'm not going to complain as I like having you around, but I have to ask.
Did your your 'Elite board' get Corona?

On a more serious note:

Would a sign and trade with Joe Harris be something that could be had?

Harris, Prince and a future 1st for Jrue could work.

With Didi in the wings, the possibility of bringing in another long-distance 'Big' (to go along with Melli), the surprising development of BI and Ball as solid long distance options, and knowing his defensive weaknesses, I believe that JJ could. and will, be moved. There certainly would be a market for him (possibly a contender or pseudo-contender) that could attract a nice return. Dumping both Reddick's and Favor's contracts (along with the others we often talk about) could position the team for the opportunity to obtain a solid All-Star type to complement the team's style of play.

Hence my push to retain Holiday and make a play for Danilo Gallinari.

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Originally Posted by AUSSIE_PELICAN

Look I'm not going to complain as I like having you around, but I have to ask.
Did your your 'Elite board' get Corona?

On a more serious note:

Would a sign and trade with Joe Harris be something that could be had?

Harris, Prince and a future 1st for Jrue could work.

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More convo on the elite board than ever before, actually. I just have more time to bounce around other places, write pieces, etc. Restaurants are drive thru only now

Sign and trade, while also packaging other pieces are so hard to do - which is why I cant name two in the history of the NBA, and not that was in a trade for a good player. Way too difficult. So "COULD" it happen? Sure, but history says almost everything else is more likely

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Originally Posted by As I See It

With Didi in the wings, the possibility of bringing in another long-distance 'Big' (to go along with Melli), the surprising development of BI and Ball as solid long distance options, and knowing his defensive weaknesses, I believe that JJ could. and will, be moved. There certainly would be a market for him (possibly a contender or pseudo-contender) that could attract a nice return. Dumping both Reddick's and Favor's contracts (along with the others we often talk about) could position the team for the opportunity to obtain a solid All-Star type to complement the team's style of play.

Hence my push to retain Holiday and make a play for Danilo Gallinari.

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And what's the most you'd pay Holiday on his next contract? And if the bidding goes over that number, are you good just letting him walk for nothing?

My feeling is he gets something in the neighborhood of 4/120. You good with paying that, knowing Ingrams max will be on the books too, Zo's next contract will be on there, and Zion's max will start before Jrue's contract ends?

Not saying the answer is no -- but nothing is in a vacuum. You gotta answer not only if you wanna keep Jrue now vs the trade packages he could get but also saying no to trades for him basically locks you into either: Paying him big money and likely getting poor ROI at the end of his contract or letting him walk and getting nothing

I rather not waste a roster spot on Dinwinddle.


The biggest conundrum is that Jrue is gonna age himself out of our core relatively quick. His All-Pro defense is gonna decline and once that decline happens... He'll be a mediocre shooter and terrific slasher that lost his step on defense.

So, it's really a conflict of diminished returns and sustainability. Jared Allen is a short term plug while Jaxson Hayes still need atleast another year to develop into a starting caliber player. Jared Allen would feel a need and strength our lack of bigs, but he isn't the answer to physical centers and provides no spacing. So, it would gambling on potential(21 years old says that is still a good gamble). The consensus is that Allen is already is leaving. So, why trade for someone that could had for much less.

Now onto to Levert. If we could live in a perfect world where Levert is healthy and he gets the much needed development that sorely lacking for a 25 year old "Mini-Superstar". I could see us as the perfect landing spot when it comes to trouble underdeveloped players. Is he worth Jrue Holiday? Simple answer is No. He doesn't have a Veteran presence or high caliber defender that we lose in Jrue. Jrue would still be a Levert quality offensive player if his defense declines. So, what is the point of trading for that now?

So, unless they sweeten the deal with another awful Celtics trade for Jrue. I pass. Get Josh Allen for peanuts.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

And what's the most you'd pay Holiday on his next contract? And if the bidding goes over that number, are you good just letting him walk for nothing?

My feeling is he gets something in the neighborhood of 4/120. You good with paying that, knowing Ingrams max will be on the books too, Zo's next contract will be on there, and Zion's max will start before Jrue's contract ends?

Not saying the answer is no -- but nothing is in a vacuum. You gotta answer not only if you wanna keep Jrue now vs the trade packages he could get but also saying no to trades for him basically locks you into either: Paying him big money and likely getting poor ROI at the end of his contract or letting him walk and getting nothing

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There are a lot of moving parts but I'll give this a shot.....

Jrue will become a free agent in 2022.....

1. That's the same time that James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Kemba Walker, and Stephon Curry (all established All Stars) are scheduled to hit the market.
2. Players like Zach Levine, Gary Harris, and Marcus Smart (all much younger than Jrue Holiday) are also scheduled to hit the market.
3. Some players will becoming RFA's or playing out their rookie contracts. Chief among these players will be Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Trae Young, and SGA.
4. Now I haven't even mentioned Chris Paul, John Wall, or Ricky Rubio who may or may not enter the equation.

My feeling is that with the glut of guard talent potentially available in 2022, I don't see how Holiday could command top dollar; there probably will be more players being shopped than there will be teams shopping.

This said, I think Holiday would be wise to extend next year before he hits free agency. That will provide him with financial security and, obviously, extend the Pelicans' control over his playing rights.

ONCE AGAIN: This is how we sit today. There are a lot of moving parts. Some players will enter the picture that aren't mentioned, and others who are mentioned may fall aside.

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Originally Posted by As I See It

There are a lot of moving parts but I'll give this a shot.....

Jrue will become a free agent in 2022.....

1. That's the same time that James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, Kemba Walker, and Stephon Curry (all established All Stars) are scheduled to hit the market.
2. Players like Zach Levine, Gary Harris, and Marcus Smart (all much younger than Jrue Holiday) are also scheduled to hit the market.
3. Some players will becoming RFA's or playing out their rookie contracts. Chief among these players will be Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Trae Young, and SGA.
4. Now I haven't even mentioned Chris Paul, John Wall, or Ricky Rubio who may or may not enter the equation.

My feeling is that with the glut of guard talent potentially available in 2022, I don't see how Holiday could command top dollar; there probably will be more players being shopped than there will be teams shopping.

This said, I think Holiday would be wise to extend next year before he hits free agency. That will provide him with financial security and, obviously, extend the Pelicans' control over his playing rights.

ONCE AGAIN: This is how we sit today. There are a lot of moving parts. Some players will enter the picture that aren't mentioned, and others who are mentioned may fall aside.

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Your whole post starts off with a major error and the rest is irrelevant because of it

Jrue will be a FA in 2021. He will opt out and get one last long term contract that summer. And he will be eligible to start at up to 35% of the cap because of tenure. So, his max would be an average of over 40 mil per year

At a similar point in his career, with a lower cap, as an (arguably) lesser player Kyle Lowry got 3/100

I would put a 10%, maybe 15%, margin of error on my prediction -- both ways mind you -- but he is going to demand a massive contract in the summer of 2021. Its his last pay day. He wont come cheap

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Your whole post starts off with a major error and the rest is irrelevant because of it

Jrue will be a FA in 2021. He will opt out and get one last long term contract that summer. And he will be eligible to start at up to 35% of the cap because of tenure. So, his max would be an average of over 40 mil per year

At a similar point in his career, with a lower cap, as an (arguably) lesser player Kyle Lowry got 3/100

I would put a 10%, maybe 15%, margin of error on my prediction -- both ways mind you -- but he is going to demand a massive contract in the summer of 2021. Its his last pay day. He wont come cheap

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As I said in the start of my post and at the end of my post, 'THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS'. As we speak, he has neither indicated that he will be opting out or playing it out (I don't even think we know, definitively, what the CAP is for 21/22). But what we do know is that his contract, as written, runs through the 21/22 season and then he would be an UFA. If he has indicated he will be opting out, indeed, I stand corrected, but I don't think he has.

If prior to next season, he gives no indication as to what his plans are, things obviously change.

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Originally Posted by As I See It

As I said in the start of my post and at the end of my post, 'THERE ARE A LOT OF MOVING PARTS'. As we speak, he has neither indicated that he will be opting out or playing it out (I don't even think we know, definitively, what the CAP is for 21/22). But what we do know is that his contract, as written, runs through the 21/22 season and then he would be an UFA. If he has indicated he will be opting out, indeed, I stand corrected, but I don't think he has.

If prior to next season, he gives no indication as to what his plans are, things obviously change.

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But its not a maybe, at least not in a 50/50 sense. Closer to 99% of good players opt out of their player option.

The only way he doesn't is if he has a major injury next season - at which point its all a moot point because in that scenario you also failed to move him before his value hit an all time low.

So, again -- your only options are: Trade him this summer (or prior to deadline), keep him and pay him big in summer of 2021, or keep him and lose him in the summer of 2021

Those are the three options. You can not create a 4th (keep him and get him to return at a discount) just because that is what you want to happen. We all want the best of two worlds, but a GM can not be an optimist. They have to be a realist and these are Griffin's 3 realistic options

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

But its not a maybe, at least not in a 50/50 sense. Closer to 99% of good players opt out of their player option.

The only way he doesn't is if he has a major injury next season - at which point its all a moot point because in that scenario you also failed to move him before his value hit an all time low.

So, again -- your only options are: Trade him this summer (or prior to deadline), keep him and pay him big in summer of 2021, or keep him and lose him in the summer of 2021

Those are the three options. You can not create a 4th (keep him and get him to return at a discount) just because that is what you want to happen. We all want the best of two worlds, but a GM can not be an optimist. They have to be a realist and these are Griffin's 3 realistic options

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Given the number of players hitting the free-agency in 2021 and the fact that the cap salary migtht take a huge hit with the current situation of the league and the uncertain forecasts for next year (some scientists are expecting a second wave of the virus at the end of the year, if the collective immunity is not established by then it might be another problem), I'm not sure a huge pay is a 99% sure thing for Jrue.
I agree he has strong incentive to opt-out but I see scenarii where he could prefer to opt-in.

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Originally Posted by Blattman

Given the number of players hitting the free-agency in 2021 and the fact that the cap salary migtht take a huge hit with the current situation of the league and the uncertain forecasts for next year (some scientists are expecting a second wave of the virus at the end of the year, if the collective immunity is not established by then it might be another problem), I'm not sure a huge pay is a 99% sure thing for Jrue.
I agree he has strong incentive to opt-out but I see scenarii where he could prefer to opt-in.

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Jure gave the team a break on his current deal. Like MM said three options. IF NO INJURY, he will demand 40+mil. There is 0% chance he opts in.

I don’t see us exploring a Nets deal too much, but it now makes even more sense to move Jrue with the lockdown. He will be on the wrong side of 30 soon, and while some primes end later than others, I’m not sure I’d want to bank a big money contract on Jrue when we have so many people to pay. Most of his value (for this season at least) depended on whether we were bound for the postseason or not. We were close, but that reality is gone. Find some value while we can.

I’d do a three team trade with the Kings to get us Buddy Hield back. Let the Kings get Lavert and Allen and we can maybe send a first rounder.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He should've already been gone. I hope we trade him before next season starts, whenever that is.

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Originally Posted by JJackisangry

I don’t see us exploring a Nets deal too much, but it now makes even more sense to move Jrue with the lockdown. He will be on the wrong side of 30 soon, and while some primes end later than others, I’m not sure I’d want to bank a big money contract on Jrue when we have so many people to pay. Most of his value (for this season at least) depended on whether we were bound for the postseason or not. We were close, but that reality is gone. Find some value while we can.

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I would bet almost any amount of money we wont move him this offseason. The truly unfortunate part of the Zion injury, aside from not getting to see him play, is that Griffin doesnt have enough data to make definitive conclusions about who fits and who doesnt. So, he will make very minor changes this offseason and get more data at the beginning of next season before making a decision.

As for Jrue's age, I dont agree that is a sole reason to move him. You dont see great teams will all guys on in the same exact age bracket/timeline. He could be the Iggy (Warriors), the Kendrick Perkins/Nick Collison (OKC), the Kareem when the Lakers had a young Magic/Worthy/Byron, etc etc etc

The idea of having a ton of guys start off age 20-24 and all grow together....its not realistic. You trade Jrue for two really good guys in their young 20s and that is a recipe for disaster as you have a bunch of guys all wanting to get their numbers to lock in a great 2nd contract. No leadership. No knowledge of what it takes to win at this level. It would work on 2K, but not real life

For me, its not age with Jrue, its fit. If he was more Klay offensively - and by that I mean he didnt need dribbles or touches to impact the game on that end -- then, I'd sign up. But he does need to dribble, needs touches, otherwise he has no impact because he doesnt create a ton of space for the team when he is off the ball. Thats the issue. Not the age, especially with how well he takes care of his body. I think he has a better 30s than say Lowry. And look what CP3 is doing in his mid 30s. Its the fit, not the age.

Wouldnt surprise me if they arent talking to his agent already and making the offer they are willing to go with
Biggest concern of losing him is what we lose defensively and replacing that

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Originally Posted by Sleeper

I’d do a three team trade with the Kings to get us Buddy Hield back. Let the Kings get Lavert and Allen and we can maybe send a first rounder.

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So in this equation we trade Jrue and a first for Buddy Hield? That's our part of the deal, we lose Jrue and a first and get back Hield?

Nope.

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Originally Posted by Dago75

Wouldnt surprise me if they arent talking to his agent already and making the offer they are willing to go with
Biggest concern of losing him is what we lose defensively and replacing that

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Highly doubt that.

To me, Holiday is a very tricky piece to build a good team around. You can't let him be the lead ball handler since he has deficiency on ball handling and offense initiating, but as a secondary playmaker he can't play in a free-flowing offense because he tend to stall it because of his need to dribble to create his offense.

Now if you're honest, this could be a problem if this team was poised to compete for a championship in the next two years. It's not one for this team. He may be an unperfect fit for the kind of offense Gentry wants to establish, but he won't prevent the team to contend for playoffs. If you want him to stay long-term with the same type of offensive system, I think the only real solution is to see him evolve into a sixth man in the coming years since the lesser talent on second unit will let him more opportunity as a lead ball handler.

Last, I will certainly not trade anything of good value (Jrue + future 1st) for Hield. He's disgruntled and already asked for a trade before the trade deadline. Also I think the issue with Hield could be the same as with Jrue since he really love to keep the ball in his hands.

If we did make him an offer in the offseason...

1. How likely would he be to accept it / how much would it take?
2. How long would we have to keep him before being able to trade him should we want to?

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Originally Posted by donato

If we did make him an offer in the offseason...

1. How likely would he be to accept it / how much would it take?
2. How long would we have to keep him before being able to trade him should we want to?

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I believe that we offered him an extension, starting at a slight raise, he'd accept. So, basically turn his current 1+1 into a 5 year deal worth 150-160 million

But I don't know if Griffin wants to lock into that. This summer, already, he will have a max deal for Ingram to offer, he will at least need to negotiate with Hart and Ball too on extensions. While, yes, he can theoretically lock everybody in, he would also be killing his future flexibility

Personally, I think flexibility for this franchise is overrated because I don't see us luring big free agents - ever. I think we can trade for big pieces, but won't ever sign one. So, in that vein I would be tempted to lock guys up long term like Jrue and Hart, but I would bet Griffin is more of an optimist than I am with his belief New Orleans can lure a big FA before Zion signs his 2nd contract

Read this and you will feel better.

https://www.thebirdwrites.com/2020/4...ball-josh-hart

The TBW is the gospel.

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Originally Posted by 13 - 3

Read this and you will feel better.

https://www.thebirdwrites.com/2020/4...ball-josh-hart

The TBW is the gospel.

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Well laid out piece. Almost exactly what I put in my last post, but just far more detailed because they still have the energy to try and educate the fan base. Good for them

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I believe that we offered him an extension, starting at a slight raise, he'd accept. So, basically turn his current 1+1 into a 5 year deal worth 150-160 million

But I don't know if Griffin wants to lock into that. This summer, already, he will have a max deal for Ingram to offer, he will at least need to negotiate with Hart and Ball too on extensions. While, yes, he can theoretically lock everybody in, he would also be killing his future flexibility

Personally, I think flexibility for this franchise is overrated because I don't see us luring big free agents - ever. I think we can trade for big pieces, but won't ever sign one. So, in that vein I would be tempted to lock guys up long term like Jrue and Hart, but I would bet Griffin is more of an optimist than I am with his belief New Orleans can lure a big FA before Zion signs his 2nd contract

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1) Will this team be able to cope defensively without Jrue (I'd lock him in for that reason) and

2) Can Lonzo compete in the playoffs with his style of play? (I think he is years away from being a + in the playoffs and we have a chance at an accelerated time table with Zion right now. I'd ship Lonzo off now, assuming his value is at its peak with the idea we could obtain a star. I'd also entertain the idea of shipping off Hayes if push came to shove - I don't see how he aligns with Zion)

There are a lot of assumptions I made, namely that we can get a star by shipping off Lonzo, and if we can't then I hold off on trading him. But I think we have a rare opportunity to push while Zion is on a rookie deal, and Jrue just brings so much to the table if you pair him with one more star.

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Originally Posted by heybigmatt

1) Will this team be able to cope defensively without Jrue (I'd lock him in for that reason) and

2) Can Lonzo compete in the playoffs with his style of play? (I think he is years away from being a + in the playoffs and we have a chance at an accelerated time table with Zion right now. I'd ship Lonzo off now, assuming his value is at its peak with the idea we could obtain a star. I'd also entertain the idea of shipping off Hayes if push came to shove - I don't see how he aligns with Zion)

There are a lot of assumptions I made, namely that we can get a star by shipping off Lonzo, and if we can't then I hold off on trading him. But I think we have a rare opportunity to push while Zion is on a rookie deal, and Jrue just brings so much to the table if you pair him with one more star.

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I will answer a question with a question (and mind you, I don't know the answer):

Is it possible some of our current players become better defenders because they don't have Jrue to bail them out and just take the toughest matchup?

Now, I am not talking about for the 2020-21 season, I am talking long term. Is there a world in which Lonzo and Ingram get more defensive responsibilities and take their lumps short term and are better defenders because of it? I don't know the answer, but its certainly possible.

As for Lonzo, I just have no clue what he will be. He is the most perplexing good player I have seen in my 30+ years of watching basketball. The guy can throw a 75 foot ally oop on a dime, but he runs the pick and roll like a scared 8th grader and his finishing when challenged at the rim is horrendous at times. Like, high school level stuff. Anybody who can tell you with certainty what he will be is lying.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I will answer a question with a question (and mind you, I don't know the answer):

Is it possible some of our current players become better defenders because they don't have Jrue to bail them out and just take the toughest matchup?

Now, I am not talking about for the 2020-21 season, I am talking long term. Is there a world in which Lonzo and Ingram get more defensive responsibilities and take their lumps short term and are better defenders because of it? I don't know the answer, but its certainly possible.

As for Lonzo, I just have no clue what he will be. He is the most perplexing good player I have seen in my 30+ years of watching basketball. The guy can throw a 75 foot ally oop on a dime, but he runs the pick and roll like a scared 8th grader and his finishing when challenged at the rim is horrendous at times. Like, high school level stuff. Anybody who can tell you with certainty what he will be is lying.

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Is it possible? Yes. But I don’t know if “better” is good enough for possible contention. I also don’t know if that development is worth the wait.

In regards to your Lonzo point. I agree. Which is why I think its best to move on, and get a “star” (acknowledging the obvious difficulties doing this). Even with his passing ability, and defense (when he is locked in) I think he is years away from contributing positively during the playoffs.

All in all, I think with how good Zion is right now, you accept the fact that you build around him. We have a unique opportunity to build around him now, without mortgaging our future. Jrue Holiday brings so many tangible and intangibles that are valuable (hence a great organization like the Heat being interested in obtaining him). Think about Jrue’s potential with another “star” and Jrue having little to no offensive burden a night.

Call me crazy but I am also not seeing the fit with Zion and Jaxson Hayes, nor a timeline that jives with the current trajectory of the franchise. Not taking anything away from Hayes.

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Originally Posted by heybigmatt

Is it possible? Yes. But I don’t know if “better” is good enough for possible contention. I also don’t know if that development is worth the wait.

In regards to your Lonzo point. I agree. Which is why I think its best to move on, and get a “star” (acknowledging the obvious difficulties doing this). Even with his passing ability, and defense (when he is locked in) I think he is years away from contributing positively during the playoffs.

All in all, I think with how good Zion is right now, you accept the fact that you build around him. We have a unique opportunity to build around him now, without mortgaging our future. Jrue Holiday brings so many tangible and intangibles that are valuable (hence a great organization like the Heat being interested in obtaining him). Think about Jrue’s potential with another “star” and Jrue having little to no offensive burden a night.

Call me crazy but I am also not seeing the fit with Zion and Jaxson Hayes, nor a timeline that jives with the current trajectory of the franchise. Not taking anything away from Hayes.

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"Worth the wait"

When do you think the Pels will/should be contenders?

To me, the answer is the 2023-24 season at best. Like, REAL contenders. The next few seasons are about developing those habits and taking lumps IMO. As for Hayes and Zion, I would guess the title contending Pels can play multiple ways. Think 2013, 14, 15 Spurs. In the WC playoffs they needed Tiago Splitter playing next to Duncan to bang against the Grizz and Thunder and other big teams. When they got to Miami, Splitter was useless and they went Duncan at Center or brought in Diaw to play more.

My guess is that when we are real contenders, we will have found a slightly better/bigger version of Melli. A more skilled big that can stretch, that can pass better, that can defend 3's that shift up to 4 and 4's who shift up to 5. And if the Pels are in a series with a bigger team (and Jaxson puts on the projected 15-20 pounds they think he will by then), you see Jax play 30 mins a game. But against smaller teams, he plays closer to 15-18.

I think regardless, you will need two bigs to choose from with Zion. Hayes is the 1st. Maybe you go draft a Jalen Smith this year and that becomes your trio.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

"Worth the wait"

When do you think the Pels will/should be contenders?

To me, the answer is the 2023-24 season at best. Like, REAL contenders. The next few seasons are about developing those habits and taking lumps IMO. As for Hayes and Zion, I would guess the title contending Pels can play multiple ways. Think 2013, 14, 15 Spurs. In the WC playoffs they needed Tiago Splitter playing next to Duncan to bang against the Grizz and Thunder and other big teams. When they got to Miami, Splitter was useless and they went Duncan at Center or brought in Diaw to play more.

My guess is that when we are real contenders, we will have found a slightly better/bigger version of Melli. A more skilled big that can stretch, that can pass better, that can defend 3's that shift up to 4 and 4's who shift up to 5. And if the Pels are in a series with a bigger team (and Jaxson puts on the projected 15-20 pounds they think he will by then), you see Jax play 30 mins a game. But against smaller teams, he plays closer to 15-18.

I think regardless, you will need two bigs to choose from with Zion. Hayes is the 1st. Maybe you go draft a Jalen Smith this year and that becomes your trio.

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I think pels should try to be contenders next year. Whether they will/execute to that level is a no. However, attempting it next year, by moving on from Lonzo, and having a starting lineup of Jrue, BI, Ingram, X (Star) and serviceable rim defending three point shooting big man, will benefit us more long term, than taking the bumps and bruises you speak of above. This line up, given the availability through trade of this imaginary star (who probably doesn't exist, but in this perfect world I have created, he does) is obtainable, without losing much flexibility("mortgaging the future"). If you have that option, I think you take it, not only for the obvious of trying to compete, but also creating the culture and making this a non-destination free agent market to a somewhat non-destination free agent market.

In regards to Jaxson, assuming what you are saying is true, that is probably 2-3 years away (I think more likely 3). So we get above average Jaxson Hayes for those last years of his rookie deal, then what? I can't see us resigning him. Is that savings in money for that production worth the wait? Maybe so.

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Originally Posted by heybigmatt

I think pels should try to be contenders next year. Whether they will/execute to that level is a no. However, attempting it next year, by moving on from Lonzo, and having a starting lineup of Jrue, BI, Ingram, X (Star) and serviceable rim defending three point shooting big man, will benefit us more long term, than taking the bumps and bruises you speak of above. This line up, given the availability through trade of this imaginary star (who probably doesn't exist, but in this perfect world I have created, he does) is obtainable, without losing much flexibility("mortgaging the future"). If you have that option, I think you take it, not only for the obvious of trying to compete, but also creating the culture and making this a non-destination free agent market to a somewhat non-destination free agent market.

In regards to Jaxson, assuming what you are saying is true, that is probably 2-3 years away (I think more likely 3). So we get above average Jaxson Hayes for those last years of his rookie deal, then what? I can't see us resigning him. Is that savings in money for that production worth the wait? Maybe so.

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Yeah, I dont think the Pels could be contenders next year if they wanted to. If there was a mandate on Griff and Langdons job and they put every possible resource into the world into it. The NBA just doesnt work like that. It isnt about how good or talented your roster looks on a piece of paper. You need to go through taking the lumps, have veterans who know how to win at that level, and have a continuity of both sides of the ball. You cant rush that in real life like you can in a video game. A team of say Jrue, Beal, Ingram, and Zion would look awesome on paper. But they'd have no chance to actually win the NBA title. It just doesnt work like that. The window here starts 2022-23 at the absolute earliest, no matter what they do roster wise IMO

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Yeah, I dont think the Pels could be contenders next year if they wanted to. If there was a mandate on Griff and Langdons job and they put every possible resource into the world into it. The NBA just doesnt work like that. It isnt about how good or talented your roster looks on a piece of paper. You need to go through taking the lumps, have veterans who know how to win at that level, and have a continuity of both sides of the ball. You cant rush that in real life like you can in a video game. A team of say Jrue, Beal, Ingram, and Zion would look awesome on paper. But they'd have no chance to actually win the NBA title. It just doesnt work like that. The window here starts 2022-23 at the absolute earliest, no matter what they do roster wise IMO

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Yes they can’t be contenders- I think I said that in my previous post - but I do think its worth while to try to be contenders. I would say you need to go through taking the lumps too if we didn’t have a player like Zion. I think Zion’s ability transcends a typical path for normal franchise player. I think if we can get a star to pair with Jrue, BI and Zion we will be on a ton of nationally televised games, make teams fear us, and push BI and the younger guys to focus in on what we are doing because we are a good team.

I think it may be harder for a player to focus in if we continue to be mediocre. Apathy towards a season could be a killer for growth. I think you make the correct assumption that taking lumps will improve the younger guys, but that’s not always the case.

I just think the road leads back to Zion. If the team truly believes in his ceiling, then next year he will be a top 10-15 NBA player. Why waste the opportunity on the contract he is on right now to build something - without mortgaging the future. Giving up Lonzo may be a big loss five years from now if he truly comes into his own, but I don’t think that’s a gamble I’m willing to take. We can’t keep all the picks we have right now anyway, the Jaxson Hayes timeline looks off, and Lonzo’s trade value is probably the highest its ever been. I don’t think giving up those three things to get the player we covet is that damaging in the long term.

But, (I’ve been avoiding this topic) - I don’t know who that player is we (I) covet. Is it Brad Beal? Did he struggle this year? I didn’t watch any of his games. I like his attitude.

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Originally Posted by heybigmatt

Yes they can’t be contenders- I think I said that in my previous post - but I do think its worth while to try to be contenders. I would say you need to go through taking the lumps too if we didn’t have a player like Zion. I think Zion’s ability transcends a typical path for normal franchise player. I think if we can get a star to pair with Jrue, BI and Zion we will be on a ton of nationally televised games, make teams fear us, and push BI and the younger guys to focus in on what we are doing because we are a good team.

I think it may be harder for a player to focus in if we continue to be mediocre. Apathy towards a season could be a killer for growth. I think you make the correct assumption that taking lumps will improve the younger guys, but that’s not always the case.

I just think the road leads back to Zion. If the team truly believes in his ceiling, then next year he will be a top 10-15 NBA player. Why waste the opportunity on the contract he is on right now to build something - without mortgaging the future. Giving up Lonzo may be a big loss five years from now if he truly comes into his own, but I don’t think that’s a gamble I’m willing to take. We can’t keep all the picks we have right now anyway, the Jaxson Hayes timeline looks off, and Lonzo’s trade value is probably the highest its ever been. I don’t think giving up those three things to get the player we covet is that damaging in the long term.

But, (I’ve been avoiding this topic) - I don’t know who that player is we (I) covet. Is it Brad Beal? Did he struggle this year? I didn’t watch any of his games. I like his attitude.

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Yeah, I think you'll be disappointed in what will be available this offseason to improve. My guess is that none of the top 50-60 players switch teams this summer and/or are available in a trade. Combine that with a poor draft, and again, there is no path to this instant contender status you might want them to shoot for.

Beal might get.moved in Jan or Feb of 2021, but again, that doesn't catapult the Pels into contention even if they can throw a ton of assets at Washington to get him.

Maybe in 2021 or 2022 you can package a lot if young assets together and some picks if the right guy comes available, but that wont be this offseason. There will be no difference makers on the market

"Holiday will be an interesting case study when it comes to the future economics of the NBA. Before the NBA took a hiatus because of COVID-19, Holiday was labeled as a player entering the 2020-21 season with an expiring contract, despite having a $27.4 player option in 2021-22. Now with the uncertainty of future cap projections, there is no guarantee Holiday will become a free agent." -- Marks

Lets assume Holiday is thinking about opting in. What are the implications? Does that benefit us at all?