Jaxson Hayes ceiling?

Could he possibly develop onto a player similar to Giannis from the Bucks?

Once he puts on weight, I see a AD/Embiid hybrid. Which means his ceiling is his own.

But f he does reach that ceiling in 4/5/6 years, Pelicans definitely will have a dynasty type team on their hands because his ceiling is extremely high.

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Originally Posted by Nightshade

Could he possibly develop onto a player similar to Giannis from the Bucks?

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He has pretty good hands around the rim, I can't see the handle ever developing to that level. I would say closer to a Gobert/ Farried hybrid. I can't see his offensive game getting to ADs level, but defensively he could be similar to him too

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Originally Posted by carpo

He has pretty good hands around the rim, I can't see the handle ever developing to that level. I would say closer to a Gobert/ Farried hybrid. I can't see his offensive game getting to ADs level, but defensively he could be similar to him too

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I dont see why. He's not playing as much as AD did, but he's shown a comparable offensive skill level as a rookie to rookie AD. Jaxson even showed a nifty behind the back move this year. Something AD didnt even attempt till his 4th/5th year.

I think it's difficult to really put a ceiling cap on a player with so little high level background experience as Jax, and whose body is still clearly a while away from where it should end up. I don't mean that in a hyperbolic where, where I'm implying that there is no ceiling and he could do anything, but I just mean to say that it's difficult to get a good read on it.

Assuming relatively normal progression, no outlier bursts where he just takes weirdly huge leaps in one summer, I think he's got Clint Capela style upside very easily, perhaps with slightly more scoring and less rebounding, even if he doesn't add much in the way of new skills to his arsenal. That's nothing to sniff at; obviously Capela just got traded, but he's a good player. Capela's a very efficient 15/13-ish over the last few years and he's a solid defender who can do a bit of switch work.

Now, I feel like Hayes will probably end up falling a bit short of that in terms of rebounding, just because he doesn't show a insane natural instinct for the glass, although obviously I recognise he can (and probably will) improve on that end, particularly as he fills out his frame a little. But he has other skills that Capela doesn't that I think project well for his scoring upside.

Hayes hasn't really shot much outside of the restricted area this year, and his FT% has taken a slightly worrying drop from his college numbers, but he has a ton of body control and co-ordination and his jumper looks pretty smooth and stable, so I wouldn't be surprised if he can add some range to his offense. It's hard to predict example how much range but I could imagine him being a league average shooter from 3 a couple of years from now. 35% ish on a couple a game. I also think he's shown some pretty appealing signs of passing ability this year, which hopefully can become more consistent as he grows.

So I guess I think a pretty reasonable higher end projection for him, if all goes well, is Clint Capela minus a couple of boards but plus some solid stretch potential and higher level passing? Which is a very good player, imo.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

I dont see why. He's not playing as much as AD did, but he's shown a comparable offensive skill level as a rookie to rookie AD. Jaxson even showed a nifty behind the back move this year. Something AD didnt even attempt till his 4th/5th year.

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AD had the 15 footer from day dot- not as dialled in as it is now. AD would also routinely put the ball on the floor- something that more often than not ends up being a turnover for Jax unless he is 35ft from the rim. I'm not saying he doesn't develop into a very good player- I just can't see a face up game from the 3 or even from 15 feet anytime soon (maybe ever). I like Pelicandae's comparison and agree that I would be more than happy with that as a result.

He's a blank slate. He's hit a 3. He's made some incredible passes. And he doesn't look totally uncomfortable dribbling a few times.

He could be anywhere from Marcus Camby to another Anthony Davis.

I'll take a slightly more athletic Brook Lopez.

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Originally Posted by carpo

AD had the 15 footer from day dot- not as dialled in as it is now. AD would also routinely put the ball on the floor- something that more often than not ends up being a turnover for Jax unless he is 35ft from the rim. I'm not saying he doesn't develop into a very good player- I just can't see a face up game from the 3 or even from 15 feet anytime soon (maybe ever). I like Pelicandae's comparison and agree that I would be more than happy with that as a result.

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He did not have a 15 footer day one. Only 12% of his shots came from that range his rookie year (his lowest range). He shot 37% from there and 26% 15ft to the 3 point line. That is the main thing he worked on between years 1 and 2.

Jaxson has a decent looking stroke and is already working on 3s, so to say you just cant see a face up game from 15 ft seems odd. Especially when his handle doesnt look awkward either.

To say his ceiling might be Capela is nice, conservative, and safe for the neck.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

Once he puts on weight, I see a AD/Embiid hybrid. Which means his ceiling is his own.

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Excellent analysis. He leaves a lot to be desired, NOW, playing with his back to the basket and defensively he is abhorrent. On the other hand, I think here, in year one, his shot is mechanically more sound than both Embid and Davis. This leaves me to wonder if he's being instructed not to use it.

His unrefined talent is potentially off the chart. The kid can be so much more than a rim runner, but it will take time. It should come together for him just in time for his second contract.

Pie is the sky ceiling after he puts on another 15 pounds -- Tim Duncan

The kid is playing pretty well for a player as raw as he is. He just hasn't played a ton of basketball yet. With his athleticism, I think his ceiling is sky high and basketball is clearly important to him.

Hayes is so talented. Get rebounding up, develop a mid range jumper, put on 25 more pounds and he’s going to be a monster.


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I'm gonna go "low" for now and say he can be a taller Kenneth Faried. Good rebounder, defender, and just a athletic beast. If he does that, I'll be happy. Everything is lagniappe.

How smart a player is Hayes? He isn’t fouling every time someone goes at him in the post. Not a sound decision maker when it comes to social media, for damn sure. Because that’ll be what limits him. Being an NBA big of any impact defensively is tough. Need to make all these split second read that only comes with experience, film study, and internalizing coaching. I hope Hayes has that in him.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I think it's difficult to really put a ceiling cap on a player with so little high level background experience as Jax, and whose body is still clearly a while away from where it should end up. I don't mean that in a hyperbolic where, where I'm implying that there is no ceiling and he could do anything, but I just mean to say that it's difficult to get a good read on it.

Assuming relatively normal progression, no outlier bursts where he just takes weirdly huge leaps in one summer, I think he's got Clint Capela style upside very easily, perhaps with slightly more scoring and less rebounding, even if he doesn't add much in the way of new skills to his arsenal. That's nothing to sniff at; obviously Capela just got traded, but he's a good player. Capela's a very efficient 15/13-ish over the last few years and he's a solid defender who can do a bit of switch work.

Now, I feel like Hayes will probably end up falling a bit short of that in terms of rebounding, just because he doesn't show a insane natural instinct for the glass, although obviously I recognise he can (and probably will) improve on that end, particularly as he fills out his frame a little. But he has other skills that Capela doesn't that I think project well for his scoring upside.

Hayes hasn't really shot much outside of the restricted area this year, and his FT% has taken a slightly worrying drop from his college numbers, but he has a ton of body control and co-ordination and his jumper looks pretty smooth and stable, so I wouldn't be surprised if he can add some range to his offense. It's hard to predict example how much range but I could imagine him being a league average shooter from 3 a couple of years from now. 35% ish on a couple a game. I also think he's shown some pretty appealing signs of passing ability this year, which hopefully can become more consistent as he grows.

So I guess I think a pretty reasonable higher end projection for him, if all goes well, is Clint Capela minus a couple of boards but plus some solid stretch potential and higher level passing? Which is a very good player, imo.

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i like this.....

i was thinking about capela myself because to me hayes is just a high energy pick n roll player on offense.........if hayes is still on the team in 2022 then i hope he would have developed some kind of post move like a hook shot and a mid range jump shot......also im thinking about guard type to unlock hayes post potential because next season lonzo will have to drive and attack more when he is paired with hayes or we sign a real good SG that can work the pick n roll game like harden does........

bottom line it all comes down to hayes work ethic in the off seasons on how good he will be....