Who at #14?

This should be in the convo?

https://twitter.com/NoCeilingsNBA/st...464359424?s=20

Somebody else embed it.


I understand people open. Get hot. But 11 in a row??

I can see Griffin and co falling in love with him. Remember they were high on Duren last year and they reportedly interviewed Lively at the combine. With his late Season burgeoning passing game and defense improvement I will not be totally opposed to select him despite the poor track record of his agent with young bigs.

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Originally Posted by Blattman

I can see Griffin and co falling in love with him. Remember they were high on Duren last year and they reportedly interviewed Lively at the combine. With his late Season burgeoning passing game and defense improvement I will not be totally opposed to select him despite the poor track record of his agent with young bigs.

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I don't really see the comparison, honestly, duren was so much above Lively as a prospect as to make the comparison unfair imo. Unless you just think they like bigs in general, which I'm not really in agreement with.

And for context, I don't dislike Lively - I have him a solid first rounder, but he isn't in my lottery and I wouldn't prioritise his archetype for this team, assuming we actually use the draft pick.

Edit: I will note that this changes if you absolutely buy the shooting based on the workouts and such. I'm not really buying it considering the complete lack of indicators prior to this, but if you do buy it then obviously he moves up the board.

In any case, guys who are likely to be there around #14 that I would be interested in:

Jett Howard, Brice Sensabaugh, Nick Smith Jr, Leonard Miller, Gradey dick, Keyonte George, Cason Wallace.

A couple of those are stretches (Wallace is currently mocked at #11 on Tankathon, for example) but might fall, the others like Howard are fairly reasonable bets to be there around the 12-16 range.

All of those guys are a bit different from each other but I think they're good picks for the range, and some of them would be steals (I have Wallace top 10 ish in my big board, for example).

I'm definitely not as high on Cam Whitmore as the mocks are. I've seen him get so wild on the floor, he falls down for no apparent reason. He could be a more athletic/bigger Isaac Okoro. No thanks.

Also not as high on Cason Wallace, but like him more than Whitemore.

Conversely, think I'm higher than most on Jordan Hawkins. Talking his overall game and potential-- not just the shooting. Would be very happy if he's taken by us at 14.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I don't really see the comparison, honestly, duren was so much above Lively as a prospect as to make the comparison unfair imo. Unless you just think they like bigs in general, which I'm not really in agreement with.

And for context, I don't dislike Lively - I have him a solid first rounder, but he isn't in my lottery and I wouldn't prioritise his archetype for this team, assuming we actually use the draft pick.

Edit: I will note that this changes if you absolutely buy the shooting based on the workouts and such. I'm not really buying it considering the complete lack of indicators prior to this, but if you do buy it then obviously he moves up the board.

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My comparison with Duren was because he's a young defensive minded center with the ability to switch on perimeter and moderate success at college level. I agree Duren was more advanced but I think Lively might have more upside.

This draft is quite fluid so far, there's no clear hierachy yet after the top 3. There's even prospect projected as late first round that I like better than some projected to be selected in the late lottery.

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Originally Posted by Blattman

This draft is quite fluid so far, there's no clear hierachy yet after the top 3. There's even prospect projected as late first round that I like better than some projected to be selected in the late lottery.

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It's somewhat fluid but I'm not sure that there's no clear hierarchy - for example, pretty much everyone agrees Miller, Whitmore, Jarace, and the Thompson twins are top 10 at the least, from what I've seen. Maybe the disagreement pops up more in media mock drafts but I wouldn't know since I follow draft experts as individuals rather than going to ESPN or whatever.

Who's that prospect you have in mind?

I’d be happy with GG Jackson, Lively, or Whitehead. None would get much playing time if we run it back but I believe all could be groomed for more. Jackson could replace Nance, whitehead replace Naji, and Lively replacing Jaxson.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

It's somewhat fluid but I'm not sure that there's no clear hierarchy - for example, pretty much everyone agrees Miller, Whitmore, Jarace, and the Thompson twins are top 10 at the least, from what I've seen. Maybe the disagreement pops up more in media mock drafts but I wouldn't know since I follow draft experts as individuals rather than going to ESPN or whatever.

Who's that prospect you have in mind?

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What's your thoughts on Kobe Bufkian ? What's a realistic ceiling for Nick Smith Jr?

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

It's somewhat fluid but I'm not sure that there's no clear hierarchy - for example, pretty much everyone agrees Miller, Whitmore, Jarace, and the Thompson twins are top 10 at the least, from what I've seen. Maybe the disagreement pops up more in media mock drafts but I wouldn't know since I follow draft experts as individuals rather than going to ESPN or whatever.

Who's that prospect you have in mind?

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Actually it's more than one. I really like Trey Alexander and Podziemski as late first round picks. Also Bufkin and Leonard Miller are projected as late first round in some mock. Usually I'm not a huge fan of it but I wouldn't mind a trade down in this draft.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

I'm definitely not as high on Cam Whitmore as the mocks are. I've seen him get so wild on the floor, he falls down for no apparent reason. He could be a more athletic/bigger Isaac Okoro. No thanks.

Also not as high on Cason Wallace, but like him more than Whitemore.

Conversely, think I'm higher than most on Jordan Hawkins. Talking his overall game and potential-- not just the shooting. Would be very happy if he's taken by us at 14.

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I’m also on the Hawkins bandwagon if he’s available at 14. I could see him developing into a 3&D type of role player.

I'm "Team Wallace" until he is picked ahead of # 14

OR

The Pelicans pick up a competent veteran PG in Free Agency. (I'm sick and tired of all the ISO foolishness. A real, honest-to-goodness PG makes BI, #1, and, most of all, CJ even better offensively).

Either case being true, I trade back into the late teens, and go with Lively and other complementary assets and then I pray that DD and/or Kira improve tenfold (or Jose' grows four inches...lol).

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Originally Posted by As I See It

I'm "Team Wallace" until he is picked ahead of # 14

OR

The Pelicans pick up a competent veteran PG in Free Agency. (I'm sick and tired of all the ISO foolishness. A real, honest-to-goodness PG makes BI, #1, and, most of all, CJ even better offensively).

Either case being true, I trade back into the late teens, and go with Lively and other complementary assets and then I pray that DD and/or Kira improve tenfold (or Jose' grows four inches...lol).

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I really like Wallace. However, are the days of a "true" PG over for now? Many teams are not facilitating through "true" PGs anymore. More are using combo guards, or wings. They are getting the ball into their stars earlier to facilitate or score.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

I really like Wallace. However, are the days of a "true" PG over for now? Many teams are not facilitating through "true" PGs anymore. More are using combo guards, or wings. They are getting the ball into their stars earlier to facilitate or score.

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That’s what I was thinking. True PGs are a dying breed. I do like Wallace too though.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

I really like Wallace. However, are the days of a "true" PG over for now? Many teams are not facilitating through "true" PGs anymore. More are using combo guards, or wings. They are getting the ball into their stars earlier to facilitate or score.

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....until you need one. How bad are we at protecting leads late in games (see CJ in Phoenix series last year)? And, how many times could we not even inbound the ball on 'side-outs'?

Also, I fervently believe in the principle of diminishing returns. The more you ask your 'so-called' studs to do, the less effective they are AND the more injury-prone they become.

Stars star; Facilitators facilitate. There is no one on our roster who can do both with any consistency.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I don't really see the comparison, honestly, duren was so much above Lively as a prospect as to make the comparison unfair imo. Unless you just think they like bigs in general, which I'm not really in agreement with.

And for context, I don't dislike Lively - I have him a solid first rounder, but he isn't in my lottery and I wouldn't prioritise his archetype for this team, assuming we actually use the draft pick.

Edit: I will note that this changes if you absolutely buy the shooting based on the workouts and such. I'm not really buying it considering the complete lack of indicators prior to this, but if you do buy it then obviously he moves up the board.

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For what its worth, I heard something a day or two ago by a scout who said on a lot of these one year players from major schools like Duke, you need to go back and look at their high school tape as well. Reasoning is, at schools like Duke, NY, NC, etc, the coach has his system, and you play a role within that system, so you don't necessarily get to show all the skills you have. Made sense. They specifically mentioned Lively as one of those guys.

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Originally Posted by RobertM320

For what its worth, I heard something a day or two ago by a scout who said on a lot of these one year players from major schools like Duke, you need to go back and look at their high school tape as well. Reasoning is, at schools like Duke, NY, NC, etc, the coach has his system, and you play a role within that system, so you don't necessarily get to show all the skills you have. Made sense. They specifically mentioned Lively as one of those guys.

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I know, and I watch high school tape and listen to/read people who also watch high school tape. Watching high school tape (and international play) is how I was so confident that Wiseman was not a number 1 pick despite his minimal college play, and part of why I'm so bullish on the Thompson twins.

Kentucky is the worst school for evals in my opinion. Everyone gets nerfed there except pure system players, who always look great.

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

What's your thoughts on Kobe Bufkian ? What's a realistic ceiling for Nick Smith Jr?

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I have Kobe as a borderline first/second guy. Could see him as high as the high 20s, as low as the late 30s. Projects as an okay shooter and secondary creator, maybe a bench unit leader down the road/6th man energy. I like his defense though.

For Nick Smith, funnily enough I actually think he's a little CJ like, as an ultimate ceiling. Great touch, great drive game with a versatile handle for self creation, relatively inexplosive but a good mover, and a good passer (though not excellent). I think he's better than CJ defensively, if he peaks, but he's not a lockdown guy either so I still think a CJ comp fits. I have him around that 14-20 range in my board, so if we picked him I wouldn't be mad but there's probably someone better if I had to bet.

I'd like Hawkins, too. I think we need a confident shooter/scorer to stretch the floor with Z, BI, Herb, and Dyson, and could keep keep bench afloat.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I know, and I watch high school tape and listen to/read people who also watch high school tape. Watching high school tape (and international play) is how I was so confident that Wiseman was not a number 1 pick despite his minimal college play, and part of why I'm so bullish on the Thompson twins.

Kentucky is the worst school for evals in my opinion. Everyone gets nerfed there except pure system players, who always look great.

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How good do you think the Thompson twins can be?

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

How good do you think the Thompson twins can be?

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They both have All-star potential. I think Amen all-NBA potential, as a real possibility. Ausar could possibly get there but it would be one of his higher end outcomes.

They're both spectacular. In last year's draft, there would have been no question about both of them in the top 3, in my mind.

Edit: got their names the wrong way around. Honestly the worst part of evaluating them is the names. Why isn't one of them called Sam or something?

Just notes from my big board:

Amen:

One sentence summary: If you take Tyrese Haliburton and then make him also Gerald Green, and then also give him SGA's finishing craft, you get Amen.

Strengths:
- One of those ''holy ****'' athletes. Moves like Fox but he's 6'7, and again, has that SGA style body control.
- Excellent finisher with craft, can use both hands, shields the ball well, uses his athleticism well and has no fear of contact.
- Ridiculous passer. Not quite Luka or Jokic tier but not that far off either. Sees things before they happen.
- Absurd team defender. Hands are in every passing lane, and can basically guard anyone 1v1 at the sub-NBA level. Will be a plus defender without question.
- Some of the best and most effortless lateral movement I've ever seen.

Weaknesses:
- Really can't shoot right now. It's better than it was, say, 18 months ago, but it's still bad. It's going to be an entire rework to be NBA ready. He has the touch that it's not impossible to imagine but it's going to be a long multi-year effort - Lonzo Ball style.
- That's basically it. If he was even just normal-bad as a shooter he'd be in real competition to knock Scoot from #2 for me.

Ausar Thompson:

One Sentence Summary: The mid 2000's slashing wing on steroids, while somehow being better than his brother as a defender.

Strengths:
- Hyper-aggressive scorer who has benefited massively from playing with his mega-passing brother for years. Moves amazingly off-ball, always looking for weak points in the defense.
- Monstrous athlete, like his brother. Lob target extraordinaire, insane vertical.
- Really developing as a finisher - not quite as good as Amen yet but getting there, there's real touch.
- Hilariously good defender, somehow even better than Amen (at least in isolation) because he seems to anticipate a touch sooner than Amen does. Similar levels as team defenders.

Weaknesses:
- He's a better shooter right now than Amen but it's not saying much. He still needs a huge amount of work.
- Only a good team passer compared to Amen's Haliburton level passing.

They're both clear top 10 picks and I wouldn't see anything strange about them both going top 5 honestly.

To compare their defensive styles, I've seen someone say that Amen is more like a free safety and Ausar is more like a shutdown corner, but I don't watch American football so I have no idea what that means or if I would agree.

Wow, you sure are high on Amen. That summary would put him in the upper echelon of NBA players.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

Wow, you sure are high on Amen. That summary would put him in the upper echelon of NBA players.

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If he reaches his absolute top outcome, he has All NBA potential, which would theoretically put him in the top 15-20 players in the league in a given year, so yeah I think that's about where I rate him. If he can even shoot a little he's gamebreaking in some respects, if it all translates.

Obviously there's risks with everything, not everything does translate, and sometimes players get bad team contexts and don't get the development they need or work on the right things. But if things go well, he's a special player.

Kobe Bufkin

Best 3pt shooter or Center available. Period.

Maybe trading down or back into the 2nd?

https://www.si.com/nba/pelicans/nba/...e%20G%2DLeague.

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NEW ORLEANS- The New Orleans Pelicans have brought in former Furman University sharpshooter Jalen Slawson for a private workout ahead of the NBA Draft, per the Paladins Hoops Twitter account.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

Maybe trading down or back into the 2nd?

https://www.si.com/nba/pelicans/nba/...e%20G%2DLeague.

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I think we are just performing due diligence for possible undrafted FAs.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

I think we are just performing due diligence for possible undrafted FAs.

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Generally I agree. If someone is willing to take a workout with you, why wouldn't you? Get as much information as possible even if it's not likely to end up mattering.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

If he reaches his absolute top outcome, he has All NBA potential, which would theoretically put him in the top 15-20 players in the league in a given year, so yeah I think that's about where I rate him. If he can even shoot a little he's gamebreaking in some respects, if it all translates.

Obviously there's risks with everything, not everything does translate, and sometimes players get bad team contexts and don't get the development they need or work on the right things. But if things go well, he's a special player.

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I wish you made podcasts or created a newsletter or something. I would definitely subscribe. Your big board write ups is always fun to read, we DEFINITELY need more Pelicans draft talking guys like you man. Please consider making a podcast lol

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Originally Posted by Silverfoxx

I wish you made podcasts or created a newsletter or something. I would definitely subscribe. Your big board write ups is always fun to read, we DEFINITELY need more Pelicans draft talking guys like you man. Please consider making a podcast lol

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I might think about the idea of doing a full big-board that people can read, which has all my thoughts in it. I guess that might be worth newsletter-ing or something, if you would be interested. Maybe some scouting stuff written up. Really it would depend on if people actually wanted to hear it, I suppose.

I'm not sure how much it would be worth a podcast honestly, for others and for me. I keep up with draft stuff as much as I can, and I take it seriously, but I don't consider myself an expert and I've taken a lot of advice from other draft people over the years on what to be watching for, which stats tend to translate and which don't, etc.

For example, if you want to find out about prospects before anyone else go look up Mike Gribanov. I think he used to write for the Stepien, though now he's mostly on Twitter, and if you want to find out who looks like a prospect for the 2026 draft, he's your man: I get all of my ''to-watch'' early prospects from him.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Generally I agree. If someone is willing to take a workout with you, why wouldn't you? Get as much information as possible even if it's not likely to end up mattering.

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Except no team will waste time and resources just looking at any player willing to workout.

He seems to fit the profile of what the type of player the Pelicans either draft or sign as UFAs.

Ive liked every prospectice 14th pick better than Keyonte George at some point. But his floor is pretty much Eric Gordon. That's better than the other guards floor

We need a true point guard who can shoot and play defense. Cason Wallace looks like a fit.

We need a shooter who can space the floor. Gradey Dick or Jordan Hawkins would work here.

We need to start grooming a center. If Lively is there, and our scouts believe he can improve his outside shot (not just in a pro day workout) then I think it's really tempting. You get defense and hustle right out of the gate with him too.

One I really dislike, especially anywhere in the lottery, is drafting one dimensional talent.

Guys like Jordan Hawkins are that, to me. He's a very legit shooter, imo, but not much more than that. Probably the best pure shooter in the draft but you're essentially just gambling on the hopes that he's going to develop any other skill at some point, and for someone who is already 21 you would hope that something might have shown up by now. Take him in the 2nd, sure, but #14? You're leaving so much on the table with that.

That's basically my take on Lively as well, except instead of shooting his one big skill is rim protection. At least he has the advantage of still being 19, so a lot earlier in the development track, but the general point stands.

Cason, I like.

#14 is a really unpleasant situation in some ways, I'd honestly either see if I could move up slightly for a reasonable price or just move back and pick up an additional asset.

Here's an interesting question:

Who is a prospect that you're a lot higher on than consensus, and then one you're a lot lower on?

By consensus I mostly mean in terms of where they're appearing on mainstream mocks, like ESPN, Bleacher Report, etc.

Team Wallace since day one and I am not wavering.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Here's an interesting question:

Who is a prospect that you're a lot higher on than consensus, and then one you're a lot lower on?

By consensus I mostly mean in terms of where they're appearing on mainstream mocks, like ESPN, Bleacher Report, etc.

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Higher on: Leonard Miller is interesting. His shot can be tweaked right now because he is so young (and still growing into his body), but my god...if Vinson could get his mechanics fixed he would be insane value at 14.

Lower on: Jett Howard.

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Originally Posted by ragincaucasian

Higher on: Leonard Miller is interesting. His shot can be tweaked right now because he is so young (and still growing into his body), but my god...if Vinson could get his mechanics fixed he would be insane value at 14.

Lower on: Jett Howard.

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I like Miller too, I have him around 18th in my personal rankings. Lots of potential there, if things go right.

You must really dislike Howard, most mocks have him going around 20th now - where would you take him?

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I like Miller too, I have him around 18th in my personal rankings. Lots of potential there, if things go right.

You must really dislike Howard, most mocks have him going around 20th now - where would you take him?

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I'm just very wary of anyone with foot/ankle injuries at this point. I probably wouldn't take him unless we traded to the bottom of the 1st somewhere.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Here's an interesting question:

Who is a prospect that you're a lot higher on than consensus, and then one you're a lot lower on?

By consensus I mostly mean in terms of where they're appearing on mainstream mocks, like ESPN, Bleacher Report, etc.

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I have been a fan of Lively but he seems to be rising now in most mocks.

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Originally Posted by PELICANSFAN

I have been a fan of Lively but he seems to be rising now in most mocks.

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This draft is pretty good overall but it's pretty scarce on bigs, so I think teams that really want a true big are going to reach on guys like Lively, maybe even Nnaji. That's the sense I get from just regular fan discussion and the state of the popular mocks.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Here's an interesting question:

Who is a prospect that you're a lot higher on than consensus, and then one you're a lot lower on?

By consensus I mostly mean in terms of where they're appearing on mainstream mocks, like ESPN, Bleacher Report, etc.

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What are your answers to this question?

For anyone unfamiliar with Miller : https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2023/6...2023-nba-draft

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Here's an interesting question:

Who is a prospect that you're a lot higher on than consensus, and then one you're a lot lower on?

By consensus I mostly mean in terms of where they're appearing on mainstream mocks, like ESPN, Bleacher Report, etc.

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I'm not Lottery interested in Gradey Dick...not athletic enough for lottery consideration for me (see Corey Kispert); only 19 YO.

To me Jordan Hawkins is Lottery-worthy....Can play on /off ball and consistently cashes in on the 3-ball and will fill up the box score (See Jordan Clarkson)

List of known draft workouts for the Pelicans:

Kris Murray
Jordan Hawkins
Noah Clowney
Maxwell Lewis
GG Jackson
Ben Sheppard
Oscar Tshiebwe
Jalen Slawson
Charles Bediako
Patrick Gardner
Trey Jemison
Seneca Knight
Pete Nance
Landers Nolley
Nikos Rogkavopoulos

— Jacob Compton (@PelsPress) June 17, 2023

Here's where I have each of these guys ranked on my own board:

Kris Murray - 19
Jordan Hawkins - 24
Noah Clowney - 37
Maxwell Lewis - 16
GG Jackson - 27
Ben Sheppard - udfa
Oscar Tshiebwe - anywhere from 45-60 makes sense to me
Jalen Slawson - 45
Charles Bediako - udfa

No real opinion or thorough knowledge on the others.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

List of known draft workouts for the Pelicans:

Kris Murray
Jordan Hawkins
Noah Clowney
Maxwell Lewis
GG Jackson
Ben Sheppard
Oscar Tshiebwe
Jalen Slawson
Charles Bediako
Patrick Gardner
Trey Jemison
Seneca Knight
Pete Nance
Landers Nolley
Nikos Rogkavopoulos

— Jacob Compton (@PelsPress) June 17, 2023

Here's where I have each of these guys ranked on my own board:

Kris Murray - 19
Jordan Hawkins - 24
Noah Clowney - 37
Maxwell Lewis - 16
GG Jackson - 27
Ben Sheppard - udfa
Oscar Tshiebwe - anywhere from 45-60 makes sense to me
Jalen Slawson - 45
Charles Bediako - udfa

No real opinion or thorough knowledge on the others.

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Except for Hawkins (and possibly Murray), there is nobody on the list that is worthy of 14th pick. This could be an indication that the Pelicans are trading back from 14 and doing research on UDFA possibilities.

lower- the arkansas boys, Black and Smith
higher- taylor hendricks and GG jackson

Zach Milner, one of the best independent draft guys out there, just released his annual NBA range shooting database.

In it, he works out the percentages for every player in the draft (or at least, in ESPN's top 100) from 3, using NBA range, with regards to both corner and above the break 3s.

Link here:


Prominent shooters in this draft (prominent meaning, I have them in my own top 30 :hihi: )

Name (# in my rankings)	Above Break	ATB %age	Corner	Corner %age	Total	Total %age
Kris Murray (#20)	19/48`	39.6%	14/43	32.6%	33/91	36.3%
Anthony Black (#15)	7/20	30.4%	9/23	39.1	15/46	34.8%
Nick Smith Jr (#21)	2/14	14.3%	9/20	45.0%	11/34	32.3%
dariq Whitehead (#10)	6/21	28.6%	16/31	51.6%	22/52	42.3%
Jalen Hood Schifino (#17)	11/29	37.9%	3/21	14.29%	14/50	28.0%
Grady dick (#11)	21/43	48.8%	18/64	28.1%	39/107	36.5%
Victor Wembanyama (#1)	14/59	23.7%	7/18	38.9%	21/77	27.3%
Jett Howard (#16)	21/65	32.3%	17/37	45.9%	38/102	37.3%
Brice Sensabaugh (#12)	13/28	46.3%	11/23	47.8%	24/51	47.1%
Brandin Podziemski (#18)	29/64	45.3%	10/20	50%	39/84	46.4%
Taylor Hendricks (#6)	8/31	25.8%	16/40	40.0%	24/71	33.8%
Cam Whitmore (#7)	5/27	18.6%	7/13	53.9%	12/40	30.0%
Jordan Hawkins (#28)	30/67	44.8%	18/56	32.14%	48/123	39.0%

Guys who just flat can't shoot I haven't bothered listing, so no Lively et cetera

I know Brice Sensabaugh has dropped off in most people's estimates because of the injury, and I get that, but you can see why I'm still high on him - obviously it would depend on medicals but if they're promising I still see a lot of reason for him to be taken at #14.

I will note that, while not a shooter, Cason Wallace attempted 53 NBA range 3PAs this season and shot 37.7% on them.

The Pelicans are high on Dereck Lively.

"As long as the Pelicans don't trade for 2 or 3, they will select Dereck Lively with the 14th pick."

We will have to see how motivated the Pelicans are by his skillset moving forward. Will they move up to get him? Yet to be determined.

— Jacob Compton (@PelsPress) June 20, 2023

grain of salt and all