Biggest X Factor for the 2022-23 Season

About a month and a half away from camp, and the roster appears set barring something crazy. Team is still talking with CJ and Nance about extensions, and are open to a Hayes extension if his price comes WAY down. But outside of that, no other moves appear to be coming.

The top 7 in the rotation appear set as well, with the starting 5 (CJ, Herb, BI, Zion, Jonas) and also Nance and Murphy locked in as every day rotation players. Which leaves 3-4 regular rotation spots up for grabs. In the backcourt, Jose and Graham will be competing for first guard off the bench but Kira and Daniels could easily catch and surpass both players by the middle/end of the year. In the front court, Hayes is always looming, while Naji became one of Willie's favorite change of pace energy guys to insert last season.

History says that at least one of these guys will emerge and have a better than expected season, emerging as a key piece for the Pelicans this season. Who is your bet to emerge as the clear cut 8th best player and major X-Factor for the Pelicans this year (and why)?

I voted Dyson based on how he approaches the game. Young, fearless, a professional and smart guy with length that makes smart plays and value the basketball. Heard that Willie was getting Herb Jones vibes from him in the sense of him being a contributor quicker than he imagined. He plays winning basketball and can be switchable in different lineups. Playing him with Avocado should be fun. I think by January he will be getting regular minutes. Hoping his jumper continues to improve

I went with Graham. I love Dyson, but something tells me that Graham will be able to settle in to a more defined role this year as a gunner with staggered units. I think he was asked to do too much early in the year, and then later in the year he started pressing too much because of Jose breathing down his next. This year, he can come in and know his role will simply to take open shots. No more, no less.

Would love to see him be what De'Anthony Melton was for the Grizz the last two years. Or what Patty Mills was in SA - 9 or 10ppg in 20 minutes, 60-ish percent of his shots from behind the arc. Occassional games where he gets hot and goes for 20, and Pels are impossible to beat in those games. And the games when he is off, you sit him and it dont really matter.

For me, it's none of the above.

The biggest X-Factor, in my mind, is Zion Williamson. Until and unless his unavailability is no longer an issue, he will always be the X-Factor for this team. Everyone seems comfortable that ZW's injury problems are behind him despite missing games in each of the last five seasons (dating back to high school). I want to believe it's history, but at this point I'm locked in on 'Hope Mode' while 'Faith Mode' escapes me.

Next, I think DD will be a big part of the team's success BY THE END OF THE SEASON.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I went with Graham. I love Dyson, but something tells me that Graham will be able to settle in to a more defined role this year as a gunner with staggered units. I think he was asked to do too much early in the year, and then later in the year he started pressing too much because of Jose breathing down his next. This year, he can come in and know his role will simply to take open shots. No more, no less.

Would love to see him be what De'Anthony Melton was for the Grizz the last two years. Or what Patty Mills was in SA - 9 or 10ppg in 20 minutes, 60-ish percent of his shots from behind the arc. Occassional games where he gets hot and goes for 20, and Pels are impossible to beat in those games. And the games when he is off, you sit him and it dont really matter.

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I voted the same.

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Originally Posted by As I See It

For me, it's none of the above.

The biggest X-Factor, in my mind, is Zion Williamson. Until and unless his unavailability is no longer an issue, he will always be the X-Factor for this team. Everyone seems comfortable that ZW's injury problems are behind him despite missing games in each of the last five seasons (dating back to high school). I want to believe it's history, but at this point I'm locked in on 'Hope Mode' while 'Faith Mode' escapes me.

Next, I think DD will be a big part of the team's success BY THE END OF THE SEASON.

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We know what Zion will be if he is on the court. We know what he will contribute if he is injured. His play level is known -- his games played are not. This is a different question. Of all the guys I listed, there is legit reason to think their play when healthy will be good and reason to think that if healthy, their play could be below average/bad.

Zions health will be of massive importance, but his impact cant vary as wildly as these guys. Its just a matter of if he plays or not

with the choices we have its graham......i think if our back court is healthy for 65 games or more then graham will be what he was supposed to be for this team.......

if trey were a choice then i think i would have went with trey....

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

We know what Zion will be if he is on the court. We know what he will contribute if he is injured. His play level is known -- his games played are not. This is a different question. Of all the guys I listed, there is legit reason to think their play when healthy will be good and reason to think that if healthy, their play could be below average/bad.

Zions health will be of massive importance, but his impact cant vary as wildly as these guys. Its just a matter of if he plays or not

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Fair enough, Mac!!

In that case, I double down on DD. It seems that one of three (Alvarado, Kira, or DD) are the only likely candidates to perform as 'true' point guards which will be needed at some point. Every contending NBA club has to have a one on their roster even if he is not a starter. Through no fault of his own, Alvarado is limited because of his size (not his heart) and Kira is a big question mark physically. So, that leads me to believe that DD will be the man by season's end.

Now people will say that we can be successful without a true point, I disagree. Last year, management made it a point to seek out two all star caliber point guards to lead this team (Lowery and Paul). I know this is another season, but many of the same actors that were here last off-season remain. If we needed one last year...we need one this year.

Who is the "true PG" on the defending champion Warriors? The runner up Celtics? A lot of peoples favorites, the Clippers? The team that might have won if not for the Middleton injury, the Bucks? Sixers dont have one

I would argue that most of the best teams dont have a true PG. Now, it doesnt hurt to have one, but if you got this many high usage playmakers, there isnt really a need for one, especially if he is smaller and unable to be a multi positional defender, like most true points.

If Daniels can be a secondary creator and a multi positional defender, that would be awesome. I am hoping he can be an awesome 8th or 9th man by March

I voted Zion as well. I don't have to play by your rules, man. I disagree that his "play level is known." Last time he played, his main kickout options included Eric Bledsoe (34% from 3) and Nicolo Melli (25% from 3). His playmaking is unknown. He played at 300 lbs last time we saw him. Who knows how much better he will be if he is 285-290?

But since he wasn't an option I clicked on Jose because he seems like the kind of guy who will never rest on his laurels and will keep improving.

Always want to be comparative. Calm down, man, it’s a Monday. Enjoy life. I promise that nothing on this board matters/is serious

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Always want to be comparative. Calm down, man, it’s a Monday. Enjoy life. I promise that nothing on this board matters/is serious

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I should have but a smiley emoji after the "I don't have to play by your rules, man." I'm just being silly.

I know, I was joking too. When you are mad, you come at me WAY harder than that. Lol

To me, if Zion is out most or all of the season, this team isn’t going anywhere regardless so that is in another bucket for me. If he plays, the difference between a hard fought first round loss and a 2nd or 3rd round showing is one of the guys in the poll becoming something really viable. Like how Poole and Wiggins became something much more than expected. Or Robert Williams for the Celtics, etc.

At this time last year, you could argue those guys wouldn’t be in their teams playoff rotation. But they all had massive impacts

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

To me, if Zion is out most or all of the season, this team isn’t going anywhere regardless so that is in another bucket for me. If he plays, the difference between a hard fought first round loss and a 2nd or 3rd round showing is one of the guys in the poll becoming something really viable. Like how Poole and Wiggins became something much more than expected. Or Robert Williams for the Celtics, etc.

At this time last year, you could argue those guys wouldn’t be in their teams playoff rotation. But they all had massive impacts

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Zion's realistic ceiling this year is League MVP. So he's definitely the biggest X factor. After that, I'd say Trey. Your examples of Wiggins and Williams are flawed cause those guys were starters and by your logic, they wouldn't be choices on this list of Pelicans. Poole too cause he's a normal rotation guy.

Anyway, the reason I'm so excited about this season - and why I don't want to trade for Durant - is all the possibilities for "sustained success" and "family" and all that crap Griff has been shoveling. It is actually coming true! So much upside - as a team and for individual players.

I disagree with that as his ceiling. MVPs don’t have 2, 3, and 4 options like CJ, BI, and Jonas

And if two of those guys get hurt, to provide him the usage to put up those numbers, the team won’t win enough games to give him a shot at MVP. Not to mention that they will sit him a decent amount and stagger his minutes

Guys that young win MVP when they are like Derrick Rose — the CLEAR number 1 option, playing a ton of minutes.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I disagree with that as his ceiling. MVPs don’t have 2, 3, and 4 options like CJ, BI, and Jonas

And if two of those guys get hurt, to provide him the usage to put up those numbers, the team won’t win enough games to give him a shot at MVP. Not to mention that they will sit him a decent amount and stagger his minutes

Guys that young win MVP when they are like Derrick Rose — the CLEAR number 1 option, playing a ton of minutes.

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I think you're getting caught up in the mechanics of MVP voting...which is fair. Let me rephrase: Zion's ceiling is MVP-caliber level of play. His floor is breaking his foot again and missing the season. His "healthy floor" is dominance.

Personally, I don’t expect Zion to make an All NBA team, even if he plays 70 games. People will always cite the 27ppg number but he won’t be on the ball nearly as much, and won’t have nearly the same usage IMO

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Personally, I don’t expect Zion to make an All NBA team, even if he plays 70 games. People will always cite the 27ppg number but he won’t be on the ball nearly as much, and won’t have nearly the same usage IMO

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Sorry to derail your thread, but I predict Zion will average 30+ ppg and average 7+ assists. No one can guard him one-on-one. If he can work on his playmaking, it will obviously up his assists, but it will also help his scoring when guys don't wanna cheat off Trey or CJ anymore. You're not gonna NOT double Zion. But a third help defender will be leery of leaving Trey or CJ wide open. It is hard to guard Zion with just 2 guys. Remember those games against Memphis? They had 3 guys guarding him to no avail!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He averaged 27 and 3.7 with a crap supporting cast in his first real season in the league. He will certainly make an all-NBA team if he stays healthy. He will have the numbers and he will have the highlights. He will put the Zion/Ja debate to bed. I am a homer and choose to live my sportsfan life as an optimist.

If he was on a bad team, I would agree. All his numbers will be down from that season, IMO. Yet, he will be a better player, which I know confuses some people. But he was doing what was necessary for that putrid team at that time. This team does not need iso Zion, point guard Zion. Not to mention, that version goes completely against Willie’s offensive philosophy

Gotta be DD although I see no way for DG to NOT be much improved over last year's horrendous year. But, no matter what, DG will suck BIGLY on the defensive end. Hence...DD, especially since Herb desperately needs at least ONE decent defender on the court with him so he doesn't feel obligated to try and help all over the court which sometimes comes back to haunt him. (For example, the HUGE 3-pt shot, over Herb, by Booker at crunch time in game 6 when Herb was trying to "answer the call" when asked to come over and help on CP3 by one of our really poor defenders)

Of course, DD is definitely not Herb defensively...but, by the time playoffs roll around, I could easily see DD getting major minutes and even being one of our 5 on the court down the stretch for crunch time. And as for the "Mother of ALL X Factors"...even tho he's not listed, I can only imagine how big a deal it will be...if Trey can somehow become a decent defender as our small 5. That would open up about 43 different scenarios...whereby the Pels would suddenly become a vastly improved team. (ONLY 43...because I quit counting...at 43)

If X-factor is understood to mean someone having a better than expected season, I can’t vote for Jose because my expectations are too high. I expect that Jose solidified his spot in the rotation, last season he proved himself as a difference maker at least as much as TM3 did. So I will go with Jaxson Hayes. This will be his first season with a returning coaching staff so hopefully he will better understand what is expected of him on the floor.

Regular season is Devonte for me, I understand everyone being so down on him but he feels like the guy that's going to benefit the most from Z. Down the stretch and going into the playoffs, I'm leaning towards Dyson or Naji. Dyson probably won't get enough minutes early on, although I hope he earns them ASAP. Expecting his minutes to be a little more than Trey's last year. With Naji, it comes down to if he gets hot from 3. I know he isn't a good 3 point shooter but Willie trusted him enough to hound CP3 and Booker. If he somehow gets hot from 3, I could see him getting the 8th spot.

What in the world is this Naji love? He is pure, worst 10 players in the league type trash

Some of you guys need to get a grip

Just throwing out ideas. An injury to a role player here and there plus the right playoff matchup and he could be the 8th or 9th guy in a playoff rotation. Do I think he will be? No, but hadn't seen him mentioned in the thread.

I was low on Naji coming into this past season and was spot on. He bring good vibes and he's a solid 5th wing, that's all he is.

I think Jose is the X-factor on this team. He's the heart of the team, his shot was looking alot better later in the year and he was getting really confident and crafty around the rim. If he can keep up or improve on those offensive traits and keep the same hustle and defense, he's a legit 6th man guard type for us. DD would be second, although I'm not counting out a big jump from Kira as well.

Where's the poll option for "If I find the correct coordination of my lucky game watching outfit"?

I don't feel great about any of them becoming head and shoulders above the others. If it happens for any of them, I'm stoked.

I voted for Jose because although I didn't think he had as much room to grow, he seems to have improved based off of stats from this summer and his head seems to be in the right place and there's a very real need so he'll get the opportunity. The same thinking is the only reason why I wouldn't expect Jax to take that leap. He is basically the opposite. He has all the gifts and ability to continue to improve but his decision making continues to seem pretty poor. If Zion or JV go down Hayes is going to have to grow up quickly and that can really go either way to his development.

I think Graham will probably have a bit of a bounceback at the start of this season and hopefully Naji continues his trend of improving. I really have no hope for Kira though. I still haven't seen anything he's done on the court to make me feel hopeful but I'd be so happy if he made me eat my words. Dyson is a complete unknown to me. Excited to see what he can do.

Gonna need even more of this from JV next season...

Jonas Valanciunas had 17 points and 8 rebounds in Lithuania's win over Hungary today in FIBA World Cup qualifiers

pic.twitter.com/W1OhzrJLHi

— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) August 24, 2022

I agree he has to be good -- I just think it will need to be in a different way. I think points should/will go down. He needs to be a screen setting monster who can stretch when Zion is in and be a menace on the O glass when he is out. And he needs to be an active hedge on D who swallows all defensive boards.

2016-17 Jonas plus stretch ability would be pretty ideal. 12 ppg, 9.5 rebs in 26mpg. I will take the 3 assists from last year and the 36% from 3. I have no desire for the 13 FGA's. Bam Adebayo averaged 13FGA's last year, as a 2B/3 option. Jonas should be a clear 4th option this year. Sure, he can take 15, 16 shots on a night where 1 or 2 of the big 3 are out. But on a regular night, be more like what Brook Lopez was on the Bucks title team in 20-21, usage wise

I hope that's what he can be. I worry a bit after getting so much playing time last year that he might think hat's the guy he needs to be from now on or something. A grizzlies podcast I listen to dubbed him Hassan Whiteguy and it's my favorite current NBA nickname.

He still can't defend the pick and roll which is kind of important

But we will probably out offense most teams anyway

I feel like I am much lower on Jonas than the majority of the fan base. I feel similarly about him as I did about David West. I see the counting stats and the toughness, but I think that on the actual court - its just a net neutral. Especially on a team with a good roster. Jonas is the Halo player that will have 24 kills and 24 deaths. And is more likely to have a game with 12 kills and those 24 deaths than the inverse.

I think that the better the team around him, the more likely Jonas is to be a net negative. On a bad team, he will raise your floor. On a great team, he is a net negative in most playoff series. What he does well, we no longer really need if healthy (aside from the offensive rebounding). But, is he going to be around the basket, able to get offensive boards when Zion is on the court? Or would you prefer him spacing to give Zion room? And will teams respect the spacing enough to actually give Zion room?

Jonas was big last year and they dont make the playoffs without him. With Zion back, I think he gets less and less valuable by the day

Jonas wasn't even part of the closing lineup at the end of the year vs the Suns and it's only gonna get worse for him with Zion returning. He's worth having around during regular season to save wear & tear on crucial players, but obviously, given the current style of play in the NBA, his career is on the downside from this point forward.

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Originally Posted by The Dud

Jonas wasn't even part of the closing lineup at the end of the year vs the Suns and it's only gonna get worse for him with Zion returning. He's worth having around during regular season to save wear & tear on crucial players, but obviously, given the current style of play in the NBA, his career is on the downside from this point forward.

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Yet he was one of the main reasons they won game 4. Played 7 of 12 fourth quarter minutes and put up 11 points and 4 rebounds in those minutes.

In games 4, 5, and 6 he averaged 8 minutes in the 4th quarter. So it's not like he wasn't a major contributor even if Larry Nance played the last 2 to 3 minutes.

Jonas and his skillset is still very much needed in today's NBA will be needed for the success of this team. Especially if Zion continues to miss time. Rebounding is always important and he can do that. They can scheme around his issues defensively.

fully agree. I would have drafted Duren who went to Detroit

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Originally Posted by The Dud

Jonas wasn't even part of the closing lineup at the end of the year vs the Suns and it's only gonna get worse for him with Zion returning. He's worth having around during regular season to save wear & tear on crucial players, but obviously, given the current style of play in the NBA, his career is on the downside from this point forward.

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I can see Jonas not being in a lot of closing lineups, but we're still going to need him for certain matchups. Denver, and Minnesota are two that come to mind.

Yeah, I really go back and forth on Jonas. Sometimes I see him do something and think, "that's the advantage of having a big dude in there who can play a traditional center role on the glass", and other times I see him giving up so much on D that it makes it hard to balance the two. I think what is going to become important is seeing how offensively gifted this team is and giving Jonas touches may not be the best option anymore. It's difficult when you asses the league for better options and realize that those options are either not very big upgrades, are too coveted to reasonably acquire, or don't have the skillsets that would fit. We need Kristaps to somehow make like a third of his salary and decide to come to NOLA lol.

Jonas may be the best true center that the Pelicans or Hornets have ever had. While Cousins may have had some aspects of his game that were better, his attitude sucked and he only gave us one real season. JV doesn't demand the ball but can shoot and score very well when he does get it. We have been starved for a good center for years, so let's be happy we finally have one!!!

It’s not about good or bad. In this league, unless the center is elite and is your best player, it’s all about fit at that position. Nikola Vucevic is “better” than Kevon Looney or Al Horford but neither the Celtics or the Warriors would rather have had him last year

Jonas is a good player, but my argument would be that he is better on a team looking to raise their floor than one looking to raise their ceiling. Or on a team that has elite perimeter defense and is in need of some offensive juice. On a team with a ton of offense and a stable of questionable defenders, he wouldn’t be my top choice if I was picking amongst all the 2nd and 3rd tier centers. I might take a Poetl over him, for instance, even though Jonas is the better player in a vacuum

Questions?...I'm in the dark. Will/Can the Pels go uptempo a bit more this year? Do BI and Zion like to run the court on offense, when given the opportunity? I'm just not sure we have many that want to go full blast downcourt, after a defensive rebound. I haven't been a Pels' fan for long...but this reminds me...I miss that Hart guy. Couldn't shoot, but would play D & didn't mind running a one-man fast break, whenever he could pull down a defensive rebound. Can I assume DD is a runner...once he starts getting some decent minutes, by mid-season?

Depends what you mean with uptempo. Casuals usually mean fast breaks and shooting in 7 seconds or less

Real uptempo is getting into your offense with 19 or 20 on the shot clock on almost every possession. And no, I don’t see this roster doing that off makes. Zion, BI, CJ, and Jonas are all more deliberate players. I am expecting them to be in the middle or the top of the bottom third when it comes to half court possession tempo