All NBA and Zion's Next Contract

Zion not making All NBA this year kind of matters, but might not. Let me explain.

Next summer, we go to offer him an extension. If he made ALL NBA this year and next, it would GUARANTEE to start off at 30% in 2023-24 - a MASSIVE advantage for the Pels because no team could start him off higher than 25% of the cap. But, because he didnt make All NBA this year, we cant hand him a deal next offseason and guarantee he will start at 30% in 2023-24. It will actually all come down to that 2022-23 season. If he makes All NBA that year, he would get the 30%, if not he would get 25%. Really doesnt even matter what he does next year. Because you either gotta make it the 4th year OR 2 out of three years (year 2, 3, and 4) to get the 30%. Again, long story short, now all that matters is the 2022-23 season because he didnt make it this year. Now, lets look at how the 3 options look for Zion when it comes to signing next summer.


Signs QO and then signs 4 Year Deal with Someone Else:

23-24:17.6
24-25: 31.2
25-26: 32.6
26-27: 34.07
27-28: 35.60

Total: 151.07 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 25% because he didnt make All NBA in 2022/23

23-24:: 29.8
24-25: 32.04
25-26: 34.44
26-27: 37.02
27-28: 39.8

Total: 173.1 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 30%, Because he made All NBA in 2022-23

23-24: 35.88
24-25: 38.57
25-26: 41.46
26-27: 44.57
27-28: 47.92

Total: 208.4 million

So, as you see, it is only a small advantage if all we can offer him is the 25%. 22 million over 5 years, which he easily could make up in other markets. BUT if we can give him the 30%, that is nearly a 60 million dollar difference over the 5 years. Cant turn that down, but the issue is that - because of today - we cant GUARANTEE him that he will get the 30% next offseason, where we could have if he made All NBA this season and next.

Willing to take any questions, but I wanted to put this here because I guarantee it comes up 500x over the next year or so and I want people to have the right information.

Tatum couldn't even make a team. Just ridiculous

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Zion not making All NBA this year kind of matters, but might not. Let me explain.

Next summer, we go to offer him an extension. If he made ALL NBA this year and next, it would GUARANTEE to start off at 30% in 2023-24 - a MASSIVE advantage for the Pels because no team could start him off higher than 25% of the cap. But, because he didnt make All NBA this year, we cant hand him a deal next offseason and guarantee he will start at 30% in 2023-24. It will actually all come down to that 2022-23 season. If he makes All NBA that year, he would get the 30%, if not he would get 25%. Really doesnt even matter what he does next year. Because you either gotta make it the 4th year OR 2 out of three years (year 2, 3, and 4) to get the 30%. Again, long story short, now all that matters is the 2022-23 season because he didnt make it this year. Now, lets look at how the 3 options look for Zion when it comes to signing next summer.


Signs QO and then signs 4 Year Deal with Someone Else:

23-24:17.6
24-25: 31.2
25-26: 32.6
26-27: 34.07
27-28: 35.60

Total: 151.07 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 25% because he didnt make All NBA in 2022/23

23-24:: 29.8
24-25: 32.04
25-26: 34.44
26-27: 37.02
27-28: 39.8

Total: 173.1 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 30%, Because he made All NBA in 2022-23

23-24: 35.88
24-25: 38.57
25-26: 41.46
26-27: 44.57
27-28: 47.92

Total: 208.4 million

So, as you see, it is only a small advantage if all we can offer him is the 25%. 22 million over 5 years, which he easily could make up in other markets. BUT if we can give him the 30%, that is nearly a 60 million dollar difference over the 5 years. Cant turn that down, but the issue is that - because of today - we cant GUARANTEE him that he will get the 30% next offseason, where we could have if he made All NBA this season and next.

Willing to take any questions, but I wanted to put this here because I guarantee it comes up 500x over the next year or so and I want people to have the right information.

---

Well we could sign it and still ask out a year or 2 later.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AUSSIE_PELICAN

Well we could sign it and still ask out a year or 2 later.

---

Right.....the point is that if he was only gonna get the 25% extension, it wouldnt even make sense to do that. Would make more sense just to sign the QO and go pick his team as an UFA. The difference in money is negligible. But the 30% contract is massive - enough where you would have to sign it. But because of today, we cant guarantee him that next summer

So there's no way he signs an early extension then?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Zion not making All NBA this year kind of matters, but might not. Let me explain.

Next summer, we go to offer him an extension. If he made ALL NBA this year and next, it would GUARANTEE to start off at 30% in 2023-24 - a MASSIVE advantage for the Pels because no team could start him off higher than 25% of the cap. But, because he didnt make All NBA this year, we cant hand him a deal next offseason and guarantee he will start at 30% in 2023-24. It will actually all come down to that 2022-23 season. If he makes All NBA that year, he would get the 30%, if not he would get 25%. Really doesnt even matter what he does next year. Because you either gotta make it the 4th year OR 2 out of three years (year 2, 3, and 4) to get the 30%. Again, long story short, now all that matters is the 2022-23 season because he didnt make it this year. Now, lets look at how the 3 options look for Zion when it comes to signing next summer.


Signs QO and then signs 4 Year Deal with Someone Else:

23-24:17.6
24-25: 31.2
25-26: 32.6
26-27: 34.07
27-28: 35.60

Total: 151.07 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 25% because he didnt make All NBA in 2022/23

23-24:: 29.8
24-25: 32.04
25-26: 34.44
26-27: 37.02
27-28: 39.8

Total: 173.1 million

Signs New Extension, Starting at 30%, Because he made All NBA in 2022-23

23-24: 35.88
24-25: 38.57
25-26: 41.46
26-27: 44.57
27-28: 47.92

Total: 208.4 million

So, as you see, it is only a small advantage if all we can offer him is the 25%. 22 million over 5 years, which he easily could make up in other markets. BUT if we can give him the 30%, that is nearly a 60 million dollar difference over the 5 years. Cant turn that down, but the issue is that - because of today - we cant GUARANTEE him that he will get the 30% next offseason, where we could have if he made All NBA this season and next.

Willing to take any questions, but I wanted to put this here because I guarantee it comes up 500x over the next year or so and I want people to have the right information.

---

Thanks for all the info. The stars are aligning. Either way I'll be watching.

All that means is we need to put a team around him. Get him into the postseason for real and not get swept.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AusPel

So there's no way he signs an early extension then?

---

Never said that.

But I would say that if he makes All NBA this year and next, there is a 99.99999 percent chance he signs the extension next summer. Now? I'd say between 80-90. Still far more likely than not. But today could have been step 1 in making it a definite thing. But in typical Pelicans passion, we just missed out by a hair

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Eman5805

All that means is we need to put a team around him. Get him into the postseason for real and not get swept.

---

Right. And if we did that AND he made All NBA this year and next, it would have been even better

I'll just follow the player and not the team like all the Lebron band-wagoners.
I'll be happier for it.

Just need to dumb myself down a little.

When you think about it, all fandom is illogical. We make fun of this new gen who likes a player, but it kinda makes more sense than liking a particular team. The team swaps out players, execs, coaches, even owners and cities some times. It truly is the Ship of Theseus. I mean, nothing remains from this organization from when I became a fan in 1993. New city, team name, colors, owner, players - literally everything. So what am I really a fan of? At least with a player, there is a constant. It kind of makes more sense, we just grew up where the norm was to support the team, so we think they are the weirdos, but objectively I kind of think we are.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

When you think about it, all fandom is illogical. We make fun of this new gen who likes a player, but it kinda makes more sense than liking a particular team. The team swaps out players, execs, coaches, even owners and cities some times. It truly is the Ship of Theseus. I mean, nothing remains from this organization from when I became a fan in 1993. New city, team name, colors, owner, players - literally everything. So what am I really a fan of? At least with a player, there is a constant. It kind of makes more sense, we just grew up where the norm was to support the team, so we think they are the weirdos, but objectively I kind of think we are.

---

Like I was saying :D

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

When you think about it, all fandom is illogical. We make fun of this new gen who likes a player, but it kinda makes more sense than liking a particular team. The team swaps out players, execs, coaches, even owners and cities some times. It truly is the Ship of Theseus. I mean, nothing remains from this organization from when I became a fan in 1993. New city, team name, colors, owner, players - literally everything. So what am I really a fan of? At least with a player, there is a constant. It kind of makes more sense, we just grew up where the norm was to support the team, so we think they are the weirdos, but objectively I kind of think we are.

---

Easier for those that are not from the area. Being in the NOLA area, it is much easier to follow the team rather than specific players.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Zion not making All NBA this year kind of matters

---

this is silly....by the time the season ended *nobody* thought Zion was going to make it. People were thinking it would come down to
Jimmy Butler vs Tatum for the last forward spot. Zion wasn't even going to be the 'next guy' in line....

Bumped for when you guys start debating if Zion will stay or not

SHAI ��

The Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have agreed to a five-year, $172M maximum rookie contract extension, sources confirmed to @sam_amick.

The contract is worth up to $207 million if SGA is All-NBA.https://t.co/dZdkPWP8xX

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 3, 2021

New Orleans also has the agility to do this, which is convert the extension from 25% to the 30% if he makes an all NBA team

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pelafanatic

SHAI ��

The Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have agreed to a five-year, $172M maximum rookie contract extension, sources confirmed to @sam_amick.

The contract is worth up to $207 million if SGA is All-NBA.https://t.co/dZdkPWP8xX

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 3, 2021

New Orleans also has the agility to do this, which is convert the extension from 25% to the 30% if he makes an all NBA team

---

I am very aware of that, but it still wouldnt be guaranteed. All he will be GUARANTEED that he is signing next summer is the 173 - which isnt significantly more than the other path. Sure, it will be 208 if he makes All NBA, but that is out of his control. So, why not just wait the year and if you make All NBA, sign the 208?

My overall point is there is almost no reason for him to sign the contract next summer. And I know that when he doesnt, folks will panic

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I am very aware of that, but it still wouldnt be guaranteed. All he will be GUARANTEED that he is signing next summer is the 173 - which isnt significantly more than the other path. Sure, it will be 208 if he makes All NBA, but that is out of his control. So, why not just wait the year and if you make All NBA, sign the 208?

My overall point is there is almost no reason for him to sign the contract next summer. And I know that when he doesnt, folks will panic

---

I was just posting it for everyone because it hadn't been mentioned. I'm sure you were aware

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pelafanatic

I was just posting it for everyone because it hadn't been mentioned. I'm sure you were aware

---

He just makes so much from endorsements that the difference between the 25% contract we can give him and signing the QO and getting a new deal from another deal is such a small difference. The only way we have a REAL advantage is if we could give him the 30% contract and the earliest we could guarantee that to him is summer of 2023. He could also say no thanks and sign the QO that summer and I am sure we could get good value in a trade, but not a haul

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Bumped for when you guys start debating if Zion will stay or not

---

Am I the only one hoping we make it further into the playoffs than NY this year to at least somewhat dull the allure of big city lights and reuniting with his Duke buddy?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I am very aware of that, but it still wouldnt be guaranteed. All he will be GUARANTEED that he is signing next summer is the 173 - which isnt significantly more than the other path. Sure, it will be 208 if he makes All NBA, but that is out of his control. So, why not just wait the year and if you make All NBA, sign the 208?

My overall point is there is almost no reason for him to sign the contract next summer. And I know that when he doesnt, folks will panic

---

Since when is $173 million considered "all" as if it's chump change? There are $173 million reasons to sign that contract. What happens if the unthinkable happens? We've seen superstars still land max contracts even with teams knowing they'll be out the entire following year (KD, likely Kawhi). Both of those guys are champions. But what if Zion suffers a career altering injury? An achilles for Zion would be different than one for KD. If he can bump it to the $208 with an All-NBA, why wouldn't he just sign the $173? It's all risk, no reward.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by socbe7

Since when is $173 million considered "all" as if it's chump change? There are $173 million reasons to sign that contract. What happens if the unthinkable happens? We've seen superstars still land max contracts even with teams knowing they'll be out the entire following year (KD, likely Kawhi). Both of those guys are champions. But what if Zion suffers a career altering injury? An achilles for Zion would be different than one for KD. If he can bump it to the $208 with an All-NBA, why wouldn't he just sign the $173? It's all risk, no reward.

---

173 mil vs nothing is a big difference. 173 vs 151 is not a big deal - especially to a guy who could make 50 mil a year in endorsements if all goes well.

Look, you can believe whatever you want. But when he doesnt sign it next summer and everyone panics, this post will be here to calm the panic because people will see why he shouldnt sign it regardless

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

173 mil vs nothing is a big difference. 173 vs 151 is not a big deal - especially to a guy who could make 50 mil a year in endorsements if all goes well.

Look, you can believe whatever you want. But when he doesnt sign it next summer and everyone panics, this post will be here to calm the panic because people will see why he shouldnt sign it regardless

---

But does it calm the panic? If you believe that the odds of him signing the extension next summer are at something like 0-10%, what do you believe the odds of him signing the extension in 2023 as we stand today?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DarkHornet

But does it calm the panic? If you believe that the odds of him signing the extension next summer are at something like 0-10%, what do you believe the odds of him signing the extension in 2023 as we stand today?

---

I would say 80-ish percent. And thats why I want to put this here. Because the national narrative if he doesnt sign the extension next summer will be that he is gone. People will say nobody has ever turned it down before, blah blah blah

But like I said in this thread - even if he liked it here, as his agent, I would tell him not to sign it. To wait and see if he makes All NBA the following year. But that wont be what the national guys say - they wont even understand the different options and amounts like I laid out here. But Pels fans will, hopefully

This doesn't make any sense. You're contradicting yourself. You're saying if he doesn't sign it it's because the $20 million difference isn't worth locking himself in vs. allowing him to leave via free agency. If he doesn't sign, that means the extra $20 million guaranteed isn't enough for him to decide to stay right away.

He can get the bigger contract the following year whether he signs early or not. So you're basically saying that if he doesn't sign, it means he wants to keep his options open, but don't panic because that's not what it means.

Yes, you keep your options open in life.

And then when you get to the summer of 2023 and one option is worth 60 million more than the other option for sure, then you take it

Lol whatever helps you sleep at night.

It's pretty clear you didn't realize that he can still get the super max after he signs the max and rather than just admit to that you're running around in circles.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by socbe7

Lol whatever helps you sleep at night.

It's pretty clear you didn't realize that he can still get the super max after he signs the max and rather than just admit to that you're running around in circles.

---

Its pretty clear you dont know who I am and I know everything about the CBA and am the only one who informs Pels fans on matters such as this. Good night child

Big time Rose colored glasses here - I'm hoping

1) the new player friendly coach will be even a better sell after SVG and make it even more fun and comfortable for Zion to stay
2) the media is in a feeding frenzy on us but sometimes bad publicity can be good IF you turn things around. We should be much more fun and less frustrating to watch this year - at the very least NAW will bring energy Bledsoe never had. Even simple Ice water can be the best thing you have tasted if you are thirsty enough. This could be a big year for the fans and all the players in a very positive way.

Even if we foolishly leave something on the table for reasons we are never told, this year we got rid of Bledsoe instead of having to say goodbye to Jrue. We got a reasonably spacing center instead of an injured Adams, and we are not counting on an aging Redick for our 3pt shots. Lady luck can be fickle but we improved this year where it felt like we had taken a step back at this time last year. If last year felt like a D+ this year feels like a C+ or even a B to me so far. We still would like an A but year on year it seems like definite improvement and momentum in the right direction.

Oh man teams must be lining up to hire you then! What are you doing on an internet fan board? You should be taking those talents to a front office near you. No I don't know who you are because you're a nobody. Just a screen name and an avatar like anyone else.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SoCal4Pels

Am I the only one hoping we make it further into the playoffs than NY this year to at least somewhat dull the allure of big city lights and reuniting with his Duke buddy?

---

You're not the only one. I lurk and don't post alot but I talk about this all the time with my kids. Zion didn't want to be here from the very beginning. I believe he is just a genuinely good guy and wants to win no matter where it is. If the Pels don't go to at least the 2nd round of the playoffs this year, he will be looking to leave. That's just my 2 cents.

I think the good news for us (not that I?m too concerned anyways as I think it?s overblown), but a lot of teams are in transition as of late. Second round of playoffs is certainly attainable for those concerned. Hopefully we reach that goal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rampart

Big time Rose colored glasses here - I'm hoping

1) the new player friendly coach will be even a better sell after SVG and make it even more fun and comfortable for Zion to stay
2) the media is in a feeding frenzy on us but sometimes bad publicity can be good IF you turn things around. We should be much more fun and less frustrating to watch this year - at the very least NAW will bring energy Bledsoe never had. Even simple Ice water can be the best thing you have tasted if you are thirsty enough. This could be a big year for the fans and all the players in a very positive way.

Even if we foolishly leave something on the table for reasons we are never told, this year we got rid of Bledsoe instead of having to say goodbye to Jrue. We got a reasonably spacing center instead of an injured Adams, and we are not counting on an aging Redick for our 3pt shots. Lady luck can be fickle but we improved this year where it felt like we had taken a step back at this time last year. If last year felt like a D+ this year feels like a C+ or even a B to me so far. We still would like an A but year on year it seems like definite improvement and momentum in the right direction.

---

I don't think you're necessarily looking at it via rose-colored glasses. The points you make are valid. NAW will undoubtedly be better than Bledsoe. Jonas Valanciunas can do all the same things Adams did well, but he's also one of the best scoring traditional big men in the game. He can score in a variety of different ways and the PnR game with BI and JV will prove to be great, consistent offense for us. Graham will shine in his role here with a ton of open looks. This roster has undoubtedly improved over last year, but it remains to be seen how many wins that improvement results in.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by drortego316

You're not the only one. I lurk and don't post alot but I talk about this all the time with my kids. Zion didn't want to be here from the very beginning. I believe he is just a genuinely good guy and wants to win no matter where it is. If the Pels don't go to at least the 2nd round of the playoffs this year, he will be looking to leave. That's just my 2 cents.

---

I too hold this belief. Simply making the playoffs or at the very least the play-in was acceptable LAST year. This year, we need to make AND advance in the playoffs to quiet the noise surrounding Zion.

Barring injuries, we should be right in the thick of the playoff race come trade deadline and we'll have good trade chips to make a move should an opportunity present itself.