Josh Hart - Potential Season End Verdict?

Josh Hart injury update: pic.twitter.com/oLScF7htbD

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) April 3, 2021

Re: Josh Hart: Treatment options (surgery?) will dictate his time lost. Since the 2005-06 NBA season, the average number of missed games for in-season UCL repairs of the thumb is ~26.0 games or roughly seven weeks.

— Jeff Stotts (@InStreetClothes) April 2, 2021

With Josh Hart out with an injury that usually takes about 7 weeks to come back from, and only 6 weeks left of the season, it seems fairly plausible that Hart is done for the year. He may come back a bit early, that is possible, but this could well be it for him this season.

It's a contract year for him, so that bites pretty hard, and the question we have to ask ourselves as a team is what we do with him going forward. A Restricted Free Agent, we can match any offer he's given potentially but of course there's a limit on how far you can go with that. While Hart is less likely than Lonzo to get that huge $20m+ offer, what kind of deal would people want to see him come back for? Or do people even want him back at all?

Here's his season statistics:
- 9.2pts, 8.0rbds, 2.3asts per game
- 43.9/32.6/77.5 splits (56.6% TS, about league average overall)
- 1.4% STL, 0.9%BLK (6th on the team and 9th on the team respectively among guys who have played at least 500 minutes)
- -1.1 BPM, +0.3 VORP, 12.4 PER, 0.092 WS/48 (2.6 W/S total)

Advanced Statistical Showing:
- +0.8 RAPTOR, good for 2.4 Wins Above Replacement
- -1.5 EPM, with +1.4 estimated Wins
- -0.3 ScoreVal, -0.3 PlayVal
- -0.5 On/Off
- -0.2 RPM
- +0.31 LEBRON (118th in the league, 6th on the team)

What's the verdict?

Have to bring Hart back. He has 2 elite abilities, rebounding and heart.

Let him go if he wants to leave. Concentrate on re-signing Lonzo.

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Originally Posted by 13 - 3

Let him go if he wants to leave. Concentrate on re-signing Lonzo.

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He's actually said just the opposite. He WANTS to be here. That wasn't the question. The question was, do YOU want him back. The only correct answer is Yes.

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

Have to bring Hart back. He has 2 elite abilities, rebounding and heart.

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Sure but then, for how much?

What's your max limit on Hart? Do you match if he gets an offer sheet for, say, $15m a year?

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Sure but then, for how much?

What's your max limit on Hart? Do you match if he gets an offer sheet for, say, $15m a year?

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That's well outside my pocketbook if I were the GM, so if he gets that, I congratulate him, wish him well, and thank him for his contribution. Then I say, "Good Bye".

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Originally Posted by As I See It

That's well outside my pocketbook if I were the GM, so if he gets that, I congratulate him, wish him well, and thank him for his contribution. Then I say, "Good Bye".

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I agree, I think that would be well beyond my comfort zone for Hart. He's a good roleplayer but he's not a Difference Maker (TM).

I think I'd be very hesitant to go for anything over $12m a year.

He hasn’t really done much to warrant a massive contract, but there is always that one team that is willing to throw silly money at anyone they see (because they are desperate for talent). This injury may actually help our case a little. I feel sorry for Josh a bit, but this may save us a little money when it’s all said and done.

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Originally Posted by JJackisangry

He hasn’t really done much to warrant a massive contract, but there is always that one team that is willing to throw silly money at anyone they see (because they are desperate for talent). This injury may actually help our case a little. I feel sorry for Josh a bit, but this may save us a little money when it’s all said and done.

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What do you think your cap on an offer would be from us?

It's true that the injury might bring down his max value (though I'm not actually that sure of it, given the type of injury it is) but this is a bloated offseason for roleplayers, at least the market implies. So if he would have been given a $18m a year offer, this may cut it to $14m, but is that still too much for you?

It is for me.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

What do you think your cap on an offer would be from us?

It's true that the injury might bring down his max value (though I'm not actually that sure of it, given the type of injury it is) but this is a bloated offseason for roleplayers, at least the market implies. So if he would have been given a $18m a year offer, this may cut it to $14m, but is that still too much for you?

It is for me.

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If I’m being miserly, it’s 9 million (which I think is about what he is worth in the inflation). I’d be hesitant to past 11 mil honestly, but too many teams throw silly money around and I’m genuinely concerned.

What hurts his value more for me than anything is he isn’t a reliable enough 3 point shooter. If we are paying an energy guy good money he has to have 3 and D on lockdown.

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Originally Posted by JJackisangry

If I’m being miserly, it’s 9 million (which I think is about what he is worth in the inflation). I’d be hesitant to past 11 mil honestly, but too many teams throw silly money around and I’m genuinely concerned.

What hurts his value more for me than anything is he isn’t a reliable enough 3 point shooter. If we are paying an energy guy good money he has to have 3 and D on lockdown.

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I agree, I get very hesitant once the money crosses $10m per year. It does depend a bit on the deal and if there are any other bits involved like options, but for me the minute it gets above $12m I'm out entirely. $11m I could see if it's a relatively short deal.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I agree, I get very hesitant once the money crosses $10m per year. It does depend a bit on the deal and if there are any other bits involved like options, but for me the minute it gets above $12m I'm out entirely. $11m I could see if it's a relatively short deal.

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This is also how I feel

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I agree, I get very hesitant once the money crosses $10m per year. It does depend a bit on the deal and if there are any other bits involved like options, but for me the minute it gets above $12m I'm out entirely. $11m I could see if it's a relatively short deal.

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If we do end up overpaying a bit (I’ve said the same about Lonzo), you frontload that contract so it’s lower by the time Zion is entering RFA. That would be my main ask. I’m fully on board with a slow rebuild here. If the perfect deal pops up (like the Boogie one), pull the trigger. Otherwise, we are in no rush. Prioritize future flexibility over the short term.

I agree over $12 or so and you let him go. Also he really needs to either improve his 3pt% or stop taking so many. He shot 32% this year on four attempts. It’s “only” four but should be lower IMO.

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Originally Posted by RobertM320

He's actually said just the opposite. He WANTS to be here. That wasn't the question. The question was, do YOU want him back. The only correct answer is Yes.

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I’m not overpaying him.

Yea I see Hart as a niche kinda player but one that you need specific people around to work. Like, I think Hart would be even better if he could just play SG more. He guards way longer guys too much, if we had another wing perhaps his metrics would look a bit better. I think Kira/Hart as backup guards and Lonzo/NAW as starters is fine when our stars are SF/PF. But again depends what kinda money is thrown at him. I'm not overly worried because the guard position is so deep in the NBA right now its hard to find a team desperate for an 'average' guard.

I don't see anyone throwing more than 10mil per year at Hart.

I foresee 9.5-11m per year will make everyone happy. Hart is almost the perfect bench player compliment to whoever ends up being our primary bench scorer--which looks like it could be NAW, particularly if he improves his 3pt percentage, which I am confident he has the work ethic to do. He is the perfect cultural fit for this team mentality/attitude wise; I am extremely high on him for 11m or less.

It’s unfortunate that that he got hurt, but he is worth the resign. I would love to bring him back for between $12-$15MM. I wonder what his market will be.

But why wouldn’t we want to resign him?

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Originally Posted by UNO Gracias

It’s unfortunate that that he got hurt, but he is worth the resign. I would love to bring him back for between $12-$15MM. I wonder what his market will be.

But why wouldn’t we want to resign him?

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Could be concerned the market is too large for him. Could view his contributions as being expendable, and therefore it would be nice to bring him back but not important.

You guys are worrying for nothing. Outside of 2016, when everyone had a ton of money, find me a guy with a similar resume to Hart that signed with another team for more than the MLE

Nobody is spending cap space on him. Now, Griff might pay a little more than that yearly to get a shorter deal or to keep from having to match a contract that gives him a PO or trade kicker, etc

But if he goes out on the market, nobody is offering him more than the MLE

I want him here to be our 6th man long term. I love his versatility in that he could essentially play both forward spots and his natural off guard position. He’s a beast rebounder for his size and can hit shots from time to time, but like Bledsoe is an extremely streaky shooter. He also wants to guard the other teams best guard or wing and does it pretty effectively. Plus he seems to want to be here which is always huge for a small market team like us. I still wouldn’t pay him anything over $9 million a year.

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Originally Posted by DaPelFromHell

I want him here to be our 6th man long term. I love his versatility in that he could essentially play both forward spots and his natural off guard position. He’s a beast rebounder for his size and can hit shots from time to time, but like Bledsoe is an extremely streaky shooter. He also wants to guard the other teams best guard or wing and does it pretty effectively. Plus he seems to want to be here which is always huge for a small market team like us. I still wouldn’t pay him anything over $9 million a year.

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This...though I might hold my nose and go 10MM if my hand was forced.

You can let Josh walk, and hope that he is replaced by Naw, Didi, Jesus, or the Holy Ghost, but at the end of the day you have to ask yourself, am I ready to let a guy move on who wants to be here and has chemistry with his teammates?

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Originally Posted by UNO Gracias

You can let Josh walk, and hope that he is replaced by Naw, Didi, Jesus, or the Holy Ghost, but at the end of the day you have to ask yourself, am I ready to let a guy move on who wants to be here and has chemistry with his teammates?

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If he wants more than $12m a year and has an offer for it elsewhere, yes.

The question ''am I ready to let this guy walk'' can very easily be turned into ''how much am I willing to pay to keep this team together''. If you pay Lonzo $18m+ and Hart $12m+ a year to stay, you're committing something in the region of $105m combined to retain Lonzo/Bledsoe/Hart/Zion/Ingram/Adams next year. That's $105m to keep a 22-27 team together. Lots of money for a very mediocre team.

Yes, however Bledsoe and Adams can be moved (according to some bloggers). Zion/BI/Zo/Hart is the start of a great 8 man rotation, you need to fill in the final 3 spots with competent talent, but those 4 guys aren’t the reason you are 22-27.

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Originally Posted by UNO Gracias

Yes, however Bledsoe and Adams can be moved (according to some bloggers). Zion/BI/Zo/Hart is the start of a great 8 man rotation, you need to fill in the final 3 spots with competent talent, but those 4 guys aren’t the reason you are 22-27.

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Bledsoe and Adams could be/might be moved, sure, but again, how much are you willing to spend on a Hart, who is at best the 5th or 6th best player on a great team. For me, that's why that $12m is a hard limit in my mind: you can't just start throwing around large contracts of $15m a year or more for anyone who is half decent imo. That's how you destroy all of your flexibility and ruin your cap situation going forward.