Bron and AD winning a title their first year together was the best thing for us

Bron is slowing down and AD has no business being a franchises #1. Plus he's got his title now, he's desire will never be as good as it was last season

This is very good news for our Laker picks

If Doncic decides he wants to go to LA that is very bad, but that is worse case scenario and not very realistic

I mean, we say Lebron is slowing down but he's currently averaging

- 27/8/8 on 59.1%TS
- +7.1 BPM (6th in the league)
- +2.7 VORP (2nd in the league)
- +2.0 PlayVal (6th in the league)
- +8.3 Passer Rating (6th among all players with at least 1000 minutes)
- +14.2 on/off (2nd among all players with at least 1000 minutes)
- +8.8 RPM (1st in the league)
- +6.5 RAPTOR (3rd in the league)

Like, he's slowing down compared to himself a decade ago, but he's still very clearly one of the best 5 players in the NBA and frankly, given the improvements he's shown as a shooter over the least few years (the raw percentage isn't that high but the degree of difficulty for that percentage is insane) and the fact that his passing is basically at the peak of its powers, I don't see any reason to think he'll fall out of the top 10 for at least another season or two. He's just reached that level of finesse and game-knowledge and understanding where he can now play until he decides he's done, and be productive the entire time.

CP3 is very similar, actually. Just a level of basketball IQ and experience and finesse where he's just going to be good until he decides not to play anymore. Stockton did the same thing; he was still a good player until he was 40 and just got bored, basically.

The AD concern is more real to me. We all know his focus is come-and-go, we saw it here ourselves for a long time, so there's questions about that, but I'm more concerned about his body. We've all known he's had niggles and minor injuries for years now, but he's been basically battle-scarred all season long, missing quite lengthy chunks of games, and his current sidelining is due to an aggrieved Achilles. For a guy who relies on his mobility on defense for so much of his impact, if that Achilles ever pops or if it continues just sidelining him for huge chunks of the season, weeks at a time, that's going to seriously seriously mess things up for LA.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I mean, we say Lebron is slowing down but he's currently averaging

- 27/8/8 on 59.1%TS
- +7.1 BPM (6th in the league)
- +2.7 VORP (2nd in the league)
- +2.0 PlayVal (6th in the league)
- +8.3 Passer Rating (6th among all players with at least 1000 minutes)
- +14.2 on/off (2nd among all players with at least 1000 minutes)
- +8.8 RPM (1st in the league)
- +6.5 RAPTOR (3rd in the league)

Like, he's slowing down compared to himself a decade ago, but he's still very clearly one of the best 5 players in the NBA and frankly, given the improvements he's shown as a shooter over the least few years (the raw percentage isn't that high but the degree of difficulty for that percentage is insane) and the fact that his passing is basically at the peak of its powers, I don't see any reason to think he'll fall out of the top 10 for at least another season or two. He's just reached that level of finesse and game-knowledge and understanding where he can now play until he decides he's done, and be productive the entire time.

CP3 is very similar, actually. Just a level of basketball IQ and experience and finesse where he's just going to be good until he decides not to play anymore. Stockton did the same thing; he was still a good player until he was 40 and just got bored, basically.

The AD concern is more real to me. We all know his focus is come-and-go, we saw it here ourselves for a long time, so there's questions about that, but I'm more concerned about his body. We've all known he's had niggles and minor injuries for years now, but he's been basically battle-scarred all season long, missing quite lengthy chunks of games, and his current sidelining is due to an aggrieved Achilles. For a guy who relies on his mobility on defense for so much of his impact, if that Achilles ever pops or if it continues just sidelining him for huge chunks of the season, weeks at a time, that's going to seriously seriously mess things up for LA.

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Well, the good thing is that this years Laker pick is protected 8-30 and then reverts to 2022.

So unless they completely ******** the bed we'll get their 2022 pick when Bron is a year older and AD is another year reserved from giving a ********

They'll still have 0 money for good free agents and Bron aged 39 is going to not be (anywhere near as) good

This is what Griff bet on. None of the other moves really matter if one of those Lakers picks falls in the top 10

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

This is what Griff bet on. None of the other moves really matter if one of those Lakers picks falls in the top 10

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I will give Griff credit for making the future picks in the AD trade quite far out. And the Jrue trade too. It doesn't start till 2025 or something. That's something he's done really well.

I think that's his best quality. His eye for drafting talent is ********ing horrible

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Well, the good thing is that this years Laker pick is protected 8-30 and then reverts to 2022.

So unless they completely ******** the bed we'll get their 2022 pick when Bron is a year older and AD is another year reserved from giving a ********

They'll still have 0 money for good free agents and Bron aged 39 is going to not be (anywhere near as) good

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Oh sure, I'm not disputing your general point. I just think we have to be careful with guys like Lebron when we say they're declining. Absolutely it's true that overall, he's declining, but when you start off from such a high point it takes a loooooong time for a decline to actually make you bad. Right now he's just fallen from ''superhuman'' to ''one of the best on the planet''. Give it another two years and he'll be ''just really good'' and when he's 40 he'll still be ''fringe all-star'' lmao.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Oh sure, I'm not disputing your general point. I just think we have to be careful with guys like Lebron when we say they're declining. Absolutely it's true that overall, he's declining, but when you start off from such a high point it takes a loooooong time for a decline to actually make you bad. Right now he's just fallen from ''superhuman'' to ''one of the best on the planet''. Give it another two years and he'll be ''just really good'' and when he's 40 he'll still be ''fringe all-star'' lmao.

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I know it's bad business to bet against Bron, but declines can hit late 30 guys pretty hard, pretty quickly

The great thing about our Laker picks, is we only need them to be terrible in the reg season. Which is increasingly likely the older and more complacent they get

You know they will turn it on in the post season, but that makes no difference to where their pick falls which is great for us

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AusPel

I know it's bad business to bet against Bron, but declines can hit late 30 guys pretty hard, pretty quickly

The great thing about our Laker picks, is we only need them to be terrible in the reg season. Which is increasingly likely the older and more complacent they get

You know they will turn it on in the post season, but that makes no difference to where their pick falls which is great for us

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Oh sure but people have been saying Lebron's going to hit his decline hard for about 6 years now and it just flat out hasn't happened. The decline has been there, particularly in his quick twitch athleticism on D, but it's been a pretty slow and gracious one, and his other skills (like his passing) have only been improving.

Discounting a big disruptive injury, I think it's a safer bet to imagine a relatively slow, gradual decline than any sudden drop-off.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Oh sure but people have been saying Lebron's going to hit his decline hard for about 6 years now and it just flat out hasn't happened. The decline has been there, particularly in his quick twitch athleticism on D, but it's been a pretty slow and gracious one, and his other skills (like his passing) have only been improving.

Discounting a big disruptive injury, I think it's a safer bet to imagine a relatively slow, gradual decline than any sudden drop-off.

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Having said that, Bron can't carry a team anymore. He's losing to the Wiz without AD (and Shoeder)

The end is nigh people, THE END IS NIGH

https://media.tenor.com/images/5e502...e851/tenor.gif

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Having said that, Bron can't carry a team anymore. He's losing to the Wiz without AD (and Shoeder)

The end is night people, THE END IS NIGH

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He beat Portland without AD yesterday :hihi: had 28/11/7/4/3 on 52/40/50 splits. Only played 36 minutes, only turned it over twice.

The Wizards have also now won 6 of their last 7, including wins over Denver twice and Portland.

Dame and Jokic washed, smh

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

He beat Portland without AD yesterday :hihi: had 28/11/7/4/3 on 52/40/50 splits. Only played 36 minutes, only turned it over twice.

The Wizards have also now won 6 of their last 7, including wins over Denver twice and Portland.

Dame and Jokic washed, smh

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Uggh I thought they lost against Pland

But still, we don't start accumulating Laker picks until 2022

That's ********ing great

I don't really care what stats he's putting up this year, it has not that much bearing to our future

But Wiz, WTF?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Uggh I thought they lost against Pland

But still, we don't start accumulating Laker picks until 2022

That's ********ing great

I don't really care what stats he's putting up this year, it has not that much bearing to our future

But Wiz, WTF?

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Nah they won.

I agree, and I don't think 38 year old Lebron will quite have that extra oomph anymore (though I still think he'll be very very good), and of course without their picks and without cap flexibility (Lebron, AD, and Kuzma alone account for about $85-90m a year until 2022-23 ends) there's some degree of difficulty when it comes to adding a large quantity of good pieces around them. It all depends on AD, in my view, exactly how competitive they will be. If he ends up having no lasting issue with his legs, and continues adding to the playmaking he's picked up over the last 3 years then I can see them still being a legitimate playoff team through untill that 2022-23 season, even if not a championship contender (which of course depresses the value of any picks in that span). If he doesn't, or if he gets injured, or if he just declines early, then it all switches.

Of course, that's the wisdom of getting those picks far out from now: every additional year we have to wait to get the picks ratchets up the likelihood of LA having a disaster and those picks doubling or tripling in value.

For example, you would what would be extremely fun? Lakers having an absolute disaster year in 2022 and then when we get that pick it's top 5 and we can pick Paolo Banchero or something.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Nah they won.

I agree, and I don't think 38 year old Lebron will quite have that extra oomph anymore (though I still think he'll be very very good), and of course without their picks and without cap flexibility (Lebron, AD, and Kuzma alone account for about $85-90m a year until 2022-23 ends) there's some degree of difficulty when it comes to adding a large quantity of good pieces around them. It all depends on AD, in my view, exactly how competitive they will be. If he ends up having no lasting issue with his legs, and continues adding to the playmaking he's picked up over the last 3 years then I can see them still being a legitimate playoff team through untill that 2022-23 season, even if not a championship contender (which of course depresses the value of any picks in that span). If he doesn't, or if he gets injured, or if he just declines early, then it all switches.

Of course, that's the wisdom of getting those picks far out from now: every additional year we have to wait to get the picks ratchets up the likelihood of LA having a disaster and those picks doubling or tripling in value.

For example, you would what would be extremely fun? Lakers having an absolute disaster year in 2022 and then when we get that pick it's top 5 and we can pick Paolo Banchero or something.

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That's the whole point of this thread.

Bron has brought a championship to LA, he's ticked that box. AD has a ship he's ticked that box

They both have 100s of millions of money tied up there

We are in as good as a position with the Laker picks as we could have hoped, outside of AD and Bron sustaining career threatening injuries

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AusPel

That's the whole point of this thread.

Bron has brought a championship to LA, he's ticked that box. AD has a ship he's ticked that box

They both have 100s of millions of money tied up there

We are in as good as a position with the Laker picks as we could have hoped, outside of AD and Bron sustaining career threatening injuries

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I know, and in general I agree with you, I just always think resting an argument on the premise that Lebron is going to decline in one or two seasons to the point of it seriously mattering is a bit of a shaky choice.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

He beat Portland without AD yesterday :hihi: had 28/11/7/4/3 on 52/40/50 splits. Only played 36 minutes, only turned it over twice.

The Wizards have also now won 6 of their last 7, including wins over Denver twice and Portland.

Dame and Jokic washed, smh

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Westbrook plays pretty subpar to terrible, but can't deny that he's a leader and crazy work ethic guy that we need.


Still a hard pass. If I could trade Bledsoe for him... Maybe. That is a beggar can't be chooser situation

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Taker597

Westbrook plays pretty subpar to terrible, but can't deny that he's a leader and crazy work ethic guy that we need.


Still a hard pass. If I could trade Bledsoe for him... Maybe. That is a beggar can't be chooser situation

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Bled earns 18 mil

Brook earns about 45 mil.

You can't do that trade

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Bled earns 18 mil

Brook earns about 45 mil.

You can't do that trade

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Obviously.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Taker597

Westbrook plays pretty subpar to terrible, but can't deny that he's a leader and crazy work ethic guy that we need.


Still a hard pass. If I could trade Bledsoe for him... Maybe. That is a beggar can't be chooser situation

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If we had to, I would support us paying Westbrook $10m a year just to not play here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

If we had to, I would support us paying Westbrook $10m a year just to not play here.

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Isn't paying Bledsoe and JJ $32 million the same thing?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Taker597

Isn't paying Bledsoe and JJ $32 million the same thing?

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It’s funny because it’s true.

Westbrook is an amazing basketball talent, but he will never win an NBA Title. There is nothing in that man’s game that says, I’m not about my own stats over wins.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by UNO Gracias

Westbrook is an amazing basketball talent, but he will never win an NBA Title. There is nothing in that man’s game that says, I’m not about my own stats over wins.

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His stats are bad also, just in case that did matter to anyone. There's a reason raw box score counting stats are deceiving, and Westbrook's advanced statistics have been not-very-good for a while now.

This season he's averaging basically 20/10/10 in the counting stats, but his TS% is almost 10% worse than league average, he's putting up negative win shares, has a -1.0 BPM, has a -7 on/off, a -1.7 ScoreVal, a -1.2 RPM, -2.0 EPM, and a -6.5 RAPTOR (3rd worst in the NBA among players with at least as many minutes as him this year).

Oooooof. Ouch. Ow.

I can barely watch a Pels game and not prognosticate what the team would be like, had Griffin had done his job properly and taken Hunter @ 4

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Originally Posted by AusPel

I can barely watch a Pels game and not prognosticate what the team would be like, had Griffin had done his job properly and taken Hunter @ 4

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And traded JJ and Bledsoe

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fedupfan

And traded JJ and Bledsoe

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JJ wouldn't have been on the team if we had Hunter

Could deal with Bled if we had Hunter

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AusPel

I can barely watch a Pels game and not prognosticate what the team would be like, had Griffin had done his job properly and taken Hunter @ 4

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I get being annoyed that we traded down from 4 (even if I personally still believe it was the right thing to do) but unless you think Hunter was the 4th best player in the draft (note: he was not) I don't really see why you'd be annoyed that he hadn't taken Hunter specifically.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I get being annoyed that we traded down from 4 (even if I personally still believe it was the right thing to do) but unless you think Hunter was the 4th best player in the draft (note: he was not) I don't really see why you'd be annoyed that he hadn't taken Hunter specifically.

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Who would you have taken at 4

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Who would you have taken at 4

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Can't remember who I had 4th at the time, but I think I had Hunter somewhere around 7th or 8th? I definitely had Brandon Clarke and PJ Washington higher, for example.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Can't remember who I had 4th at the time, but I think I had Hunter somewhere around 7th or 8th? I definitely had Brandon Clarke and PJ Washington higher, for example.

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Odd

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AusPel

Odd

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Nah, they've been really good, and Hunter is older than Washington by a fair margin (a year and some change, I think?) which matters a lot to me when it comes to drafting.

Clarke, unfortunately, had his 3pt shot mechanics altered a touch between rookie year and this year and it's cratered his scoring, whoever made that change needs to be sent very strongly worded e-mails frankly. What a ruinous mistake.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

His stats are bad also, just in case that did matter to anyone. There's a reason raw box score counting stats are deceiving, and Westbrook's advanced statistics have been not-very-good for a while now.

This season he's averaging basically 20/10/10 in the counting stats, but his TS% is almost 10% worse than league average, he's putting up negative win shares, has a -1.0 BPM, has a -7 on/off, a -1.7 ScoreVal, a -1.2 RPM, -2.0 EPM, and a -6.5 RAPTOR (3rd worst in the NBA among players with at least as many minutes as him this year).

Oooooof. Ouch. Ow.

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Dude been a 20% 3pt shooter for like 5 years... Lmao.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Taker597

Dude been a 20% 3pt shooter for like 5 years... Lmao.

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Last time Russell Westbrook shot better than league average from 3 it was literally never cause it has never happened.

The last time he shot better than 30% from 3 in consecutive seasons, Lebron was in Miami.