Quite good 'The Ringer' article on Zion's return

One of the better articles I have read all year regarding the state of the Pelicans and Zion's return:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/1...y-return-debut

Pretty spot on analysis IMO regarding the pros and cons of playing him at the 4 next to Favors vs. getting a stretch 5 and bringing Favors off the bench vs. playing Zion at the 5. Also good reminders about the last hyper-athlete of similar size that we have seen (Blake Griffin) and the eerily similar rookie knee issues, followed by continuing knee problems. I am hopeful we are doing all we can to set Zion in a different path.

I don't think this is a thing Pels need to decide upon this second---I don't think we're trading for Myles Turner this year and the list of guys who credibly shoot the 3 well enough to demand defensive respect and defend the rim can be counted on one, maybe two, hands. For the rest of the season when Zion returns, it's Zion and Favors to start. Maybe Zion gets spot minutes at the 5. Maybe he and Jax get some run together. Though Zion is short for the 4, he is by far the most physical option we've had at the 4 this season, and even if the spacing takes a hit, not being physically overmatched I think will have advantages on defense.

The hope is that Jaxson and Zion are able to expand their games to space for each other, at least adequately, in the long term.

The bigger evaluation point is for the offseason is whether in the short term you need a legitimate stretch big, or if you want to try to re-sign Favors to hold down the fort until Jax is ready. Given what the free agent market looks like, I think Favors will be the better option than anyone who is available.

'Eerily similar knee issues''

Zion had a torn meniscus, Blake had a shattered kneecap. These are not eerily similar :hihi:

Well that is true lol, I forgot what Griffins injury was. Glad Zion's was not as serious. I don't think a shattered kneecap would be self-caused by abnormal athleticism.

Do you think Myles Turner is obtainable?

How about this trade?

Pacers get
Jrue Holiday, Favors, and Frank Jackson

Pels get
Oladipo, Turner, and TJ McConnell

Pacers lineup

PG: Brogdon/Aaron Holiday
SG: Jrue Holiday/Jeremy Lamb
SF: TJ Warren/Justin Holiday
PF: Sabonis/Doug McDermott
C: Favors/Biatze

Pelicans lineup when healthy

PG: Ball/McConnell/NAW
SG: Oladipo/Redick/Moore
SF: Ingram/Hart
PF: Williamson/Williams
C: Turner/Hayes

The NBA Trade Machine also sanctions a trade that would bring Turner to the Pelicans for Moore, Miller and Jackson.

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Originally Posted by Darkhorse985

Do you think Myles Turner is obtainable?

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Depends on how the Pacers feel he fits with Sabonis. There were serious doubts previously, but he seems to look better this year. I am not sure he will be easy to get. It would probably involve at least one lightly protected 1st.

What do you think about Favors long term on this roster? Personally, I'd love to re-sign him to a modest 3 year deal with declining value. He knows that Jax is the center of the future, but he chose to be traded here over a number of different options. He seems like a pretty quiet and humble dude, so I wouldn't be surprised if he wanted Nola to be his final landing spot.

I don't think the fit with him and Zion is perfect in theory, but I cant wait to watch those guys clean the glass. Favors ability to slow and redirect players in the paint will also lead to a ton of block opportunities for Zion on the weak side. Offensively, I think it really depends on how tight Zion's handle is. If Zion shows the capability to run P&R, that big man P&R with BI and JJ in the corners could be absolutely deadly.

I like the Valanciunas contract as a comparison for what Favors could get. 3 years 45 million with 16 in the first year and declines from there.

Thanks for posting this!

We should be developing Zion as a wing player not a big. He has acceptable size for a SF, but he's a terribly undersize as a big. Zion has handles to play on the perimeter. I think it'll be better for his health long term as well.

I love Myles Turner. That boy is the truth. But he's very unattainable. He's on a good contract on a good team. No way Indy trades him for scrap.

Zion is not that undersized for a big because his girth makes up for lack of height. He can be groomed to play and guard all over the floor like an even shorter and lighter Draymond does.

good article until he said blake griffin is just as good an athlete as zion. yeah...no.

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

What do you think about Favors long term on this roster? Personally, I'd love to re-sign him to a modest 3 year deal with declining value.

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I haven't thought about it a ton, so maybe I'd change my mind if I did, but basically this. Modest, relatively short deal that doesn't cost us a ton. If he'd take it, that would be good.

Mike Prada's rebuttal from a BI perspective.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2020/1/...-injury-return

Favors on a multiyear contract, if the contract is reasonable, is a solid option, especially if we can get a stretch 5 that plays great D and/or Zion starts at the 5, Favors would be the perfect backup 5 so our defense does not go down the toilet with the second unit, especially if it is for a good deal.

However, a large part of the Lakers dominance has been due to their stellar defense inside and rim protection provided by two oft-overlooked players: Javale McGee and Dwight Howard. Their offensive shortcomings have been made irrelevant as long as LBJ and AD stay healthy.

So I don't think we need to be married to Favors if there are similar options out there.

Something most people forget is that good defense is MUCH cheaper to sign than good offense.

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Originally Posted by SoCal4Pels

Something most people forget is that good defense is MUCH cheaper to sign than good offense.

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Ehhhh, not sure how true that is for bigs. The number of NBA bigs who are generally poor but who can give you put-backs, tip-ins, and basic rim running is pretty high, whereas I honestly think there's a true dearth of legitimate defensive bigs in the NBA who can defend more than one position adequately.

Oh it is definitely true, as long as you remember that you do not need to be a defensive virtuoso like Draymond Green who can guard every position on the floor to still be extremely effective. The defense McGee and Howard provide are massive contributors to the Lakers position in the standings, and it is not because they are very good at guarding multiple positions.

And the overall philosophy that defense is cheaper than offense is how the Lakers built a 1st place team with what many (most?) considered to be scrubs surrounding their two stars.

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Originally Posted by SoCal4Pels

Oh it is definitely true, as long as you remember that you do not need to be a defensive virtuoso like Draymond Green who can guard every position on the floor to still be extremely effective. The defense McGee and Howard provide are massive contributors to the Lakers position in the standings, and it is not because they are very good at guarding multiple positions.

And the overall philosophy that defense is cheaper than offense is how the Lakers built a 1st place team with what many (most?) considered to be scrubs surrounding their two stars.

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I feel like that's misattributing the Lakers success. Of course, it does help that the Lakers have 3 very capable rim protectors (there's been talk on this board elsewhere about how rim protection is the single most important defensive factor for a team, and it's true), but a huge part of the reason their defense has been better than some expected is that AD continues to be a DPOY type player who can defend every position on the court, and Lebron is playing his best defense since 2013, and those same two players are unguardable.

Basically, the philosophy that defense is cheaper than offense isn't how the Lakers built a 1st place team with scrubs, the existence of Lebron James and Anthony Davis in tandem is how the Lakers built a 1st place team with mostly scrubs. And those scrubs have, largely, been scrubbish: Rondo, Avery Bradley, Kyle Kuzma, they have been pretty damn bad, but it's just the floor on an AD/Lebron team is pretty high. And, of course, they've got a capable coach maximising those scrubs in many instances.

Gonna have to disagree, then. The Lakers spending the rest of their limited money surrounding AD and Lebron with guys who can't play D, I don't see them in 1st.

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Originally Posted by da ThRONe

We should be developing Zion as a wing player not a big. He had acceptable size for a SF he's a terribly undersize big. Zion has handles to play on the perimeter. I think it'll be better for his health long term as well.

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i want to see zion at the 3 also........ingram,,zion,,hayes at the 2,3 and 4 positions and build around that in 2022 when hayes should be developed.....

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Originally Posted by msusousaphone

Mike Prada's rebuttal from a BI perspective.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2020/1/...-injury-return

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BI has essentially been the same player whether at the 3 or the 4. He still killed it with Kenny in the starting lineup who is probably a worse shooter and has WAY less gravity than Zion. He has defensive issues at both 3 and 4, but has generally done better on smaller quicker guys than guys who can overpower him.

I think it probably takes a couple shots away, and so I expect his points per game will go down a bit. Otherwise I'm not worried about this.

I do think it's possible Pels close games with Zion at the 5 and BI at the 4 in matchups without a threatening big man.

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Originally Posted by Biasvasospasm

BI has essentially been the same player whether at the 3 or the 4. He still killed it with Kenny in the starting lineup who is probably a worse shooter and has WAY less gravity than Zion. He has defensive issues at both 3 and 4, but has generally done better on smaller quicker guys than guys who can overpower him.

I think it probably takes a couple shots away, and so I expect his points per game will go down a bit. Otherwise I'm not worried about this.

I do think it's possible Pels close games with Zion at the 5 and BI at the 4 in matchups without a threatening big man.

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Before the season started, I tries to do a rough estimate of what kind of shot distribution we'd get. I predicted Ingram to get maybe 15 or 16 shots a game. So far, he's taking 18.6 shots a game. With Zion coming in, I estimated Zion to take something like 13 shots a game, since thats the average of the last 10 number one picks.

So Ingram dropping his shot attempts from 18.6 to about 16 wouldn't be out of the question, and that would result in a small drop in scoring as well, probably from about 25ppg to maybe 22ppg, but it's important to remember that that drop in scoring won't be a bad thing, and it's not a sign of a regression; it's just a sign of fitting with a different player.

Obviously you weren't saying it would be a bad thing, I'm just clarifying the kind of drop we might expect to see.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

I feel like that's misattributing the Lakers success. Of course, it does help that the Lakers have 3 very capable rim protectors (there's been talk on this board elsewhere about how rim protection is the single most important defensive factor for a team, and it's true), but a huge part of the reason their defense has been better than some expected is that AD continues to be a DPOY type player who can defend every position on the court, and Lebron is playing his best defense since 2013, and those same two players are unguardable.

Basically, the philosophy that defense is cheaper than offense isn't how the Lakers built a 1st place team with scrubs, the existence of Lebron James and Anthony Davis in tandem is how the Lakers built a 1st place team with mostly scrubs. And those scrubs have, largely, been scrubbish: Rondo, Avery Bradley, Kyle Kuzma, they have been pretty damn bad, but it's just the floor on an AD/Lebron team is pretty high. And, of course, they've got a capable coach maximising those scrubs in many instances.

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AD cannot guard every position on the floor. Lets not go over board. And top end players like Durant have made mince meat out of AD every time they've played, whereas a real DPOY type like Draymond makes every player he defends work for every shot.

I'm pretty sure BI will even give him trouble next time they meet. Our team apparently doesn't watch tape and didn't know you can pump fake AD into a foul 99% of the time.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

AD cannot guard every position on the floor. Lets not go over board. And top end players like Durant have made mince meat out of AD every time they've played, whereas a real DPOY type like Draymond makes every player he defends work for every shot.

I'm pretty sure BI will even give him trouble next time they meet. Our team apparently doesn't watch tape and didn't know you can pump fake AD into a foul 99% of the time.

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This is ridiculous :hihi:

I mean, I get that people on this board, and Pelicans fans in general, have this distaste towards AD for obvious and totally justifiable reasons, but if we're getting to the point where we say ''AD isn't a multi-positional defender because Kevin Durant scores on him'' is a thing people are saying in all seriousness it's time to just pack up and go.

Kevin Durant scores on everyone, because he's an elite scorer. Just like how AD regularly tore up Draymond Green when we played the Warriors (AD averages 25/13/3 on 59% TS against Golden State in his career) or how Zion dropped 26pts on 75% shooting against Rudy Gobert almost entirely in the paint. Great scorers score, even on good defense.

That doesn't mean Draymond Green isn't an elite defender, or that Gobert isn't good at defending the paint.

Anthony Davis is one of the top 10 or 15 defenders in the NBA, is switchable, can defend the paint and the perimeter, against guys at a variety of positions and heights. That's just the reality of the situation. We all know he can be lazy on that end, and that inconsistency hurts him (it probably cost him a DPOY in 2017-18) but when he's locked in he's as good as anyone. We all saw that during the Portland sweep a few seasons ago, and he's been a finalist for DPOY three times because of it, and will very possibly win it this year.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Anthony Davis is one of the top 10 or 15 defenders in the NBA, is switchable, can defend the paint and the perimeter, against guys at a variety of positions and heights. That's just the reality of the situation. We all know he can be lazy on that end, and that inconsistency hurts him (it probably cost him a DPOY in 2017-18) but when he's locked in he's as good as anyone. We all saw that during the Portland sweep a few seasons ago, and he's been a finalist for DPOY three times because of it, and will very possibly win it this year.

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I think this is pretty accurate. All players have some other player that gives him fits. If I recall, I think Embiid played AD pretty well also.

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Originally Posted by SoCal4Pels

However, a large part of the Lakers dominance has been due to their stellar defense inside and rim protection provided by two oft-overlooked players: Javale McGee and Dwight Howard. Their offensive shortcomings have been made irrelevant as long as LBJ and AD stay healthy.

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The reason McGee and Howard have been effective defensively is because AD and Lebron are two of the best defensive players in the NBA when engaged, not the other way around. If Howard/McGee was our center in place of Favors, our defense would be a dumpster fire.

Let's also not understate how the Lakers had one of the easiest first leg of the season strength of schedules. That's part of why they have dropped 4 out of their last 10 when they only lost 3 out of their first 27.

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

The reason McGee and Howard have been effective defensively is because AD and Lebron are two of the best defensive players in the NBA when engaged, not the other way around. If Howard/McGee was our center in place of Favors, our defense would be a dumpster fire.

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Synergy is the keyword in basketball most people and sports journalists forget about, why the sum of certain pieces can be greater than the whole. And this is applicable both on offense and defense, so to an extent, you are correct, but to also not credit their contributions and what they are capable of IF MOTIVATED--which is to say, I am not at all convinced these two individuals would be motivated on a losing Pelicans team vs. a team in which they will draw the wrath of LBJ and AD if they are not giving 100% (Dwight would probably revert to the primadonna 'pass the ball to me in the post alpha or I ain't playing D' nightmare he has been for quite a while if her were on the Pels)--is a simple lack of understanding.

So, syngery aside, which accounts for some of their success, the last part of your statement is likely correct, but for other reasons.

The point is, there are likely some other motivated bigs that bring a similar skillset that Favors has--his defensive skillset is not so unique or rare as his advanced stats make him out to be, people love taking stats out of context. He's doing great for us, and on a decent contract he should be kept, but he ain't a defensive unicorn.

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Originally Posted by msusousaphone

Let's also not understate how the Lakers had one of the easiest first leg of the season strength of schedules. That's part of why they have dropped 4 out of their last 10 when they only lost 3 out of their first 27.

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Yeah, I said this earlier in the year as well. Someone was asking if the Lakers had already peaked and I said probably not, they'll play better than this, but their super easy schedule to start things off has amplified their strengths and hidden their weaknesses. They're probably playing better now overall, but their record has been less stellar because they're actually facing some better competition now.

It's a similar thing to us, but in reverse. We're going to look a lot stronger in the second half of the season than the first, and some of it will be because we're playing better, but the way the schedule softens up helps us a lot.

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Originally Posted by 6warddude

i want to see zion at the 3 also........ingram,,zion,,hayes at the 2,3 and 4 positions and build around that in 2022 when hayes should be developed.....

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I agree about Ingram as a 2guard. Not sure about Haynes at the 4. If he can develop a jumper out to the 3pt line it could work. Other wise I'd like to see him bulk up a little and man the paint.

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Originally Posted by SoCal4Pels

The point is, there are likely some other motivated bigs that bring a similar skillset that Favors has--his defensive skillset is not so unique or rare as his advanced stats make him out to be, people love taking stats out of context. He's doing great for us, and on a decent contract he should be kept, but he ain't a defensive unicorn.

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I don't think anyone is arguing that Favors skillset is unique. What makes favors so unique defensively is his defensive IQ and his understanding of the game. The reason Favors' advanced stats have been so good throughout his career is because he knows exactly what position to be in at all time and he's extremely fundamentally sound when challenging shots.

There's tons of bigs in the NBA right now with skills far greater than Favors (guys like Drummond and Whiteside come to mind), but they don't have the same elite IQ that Favors has. He's up there with Gasol in terms of understanding of the game on that end. I'm not going to sit here and say that this is impossible to find. It's quite possible that Jax learns these techniques from Favors and we have the best of both worlds, but if you're going to try to argue that JaVale McGee and 34 year old Dwight Howard could have a similar impact on this team if engaged, I simply don't agree.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

This is ridiculous :hihi:

I mean, I get that people on this board, and Pelicans fans in general, have this distaste towards AD for obvious and totally justifiable reasons, but if we're getting to the point where we say ''AD isn't a multi-positional defender because Kevin Durant scores on him'' is a thing people are saying in all seriousness it's time to just pack up and go.

Kevin Durant scores on everyone, because he's an elite scorer. Just like how AD regularly tore up Draymond Green when we played the Warriors (AD averages 25/13/3 on 59% TS against Golden State in his career) or how Zion dropped 26pts on 75% shooting against Rudy Gobert almost entirely in the paint. Great scorers score, even on good defense.

That doesn't mean Draymond Green isn't an elite defender, or that Gobert isn't good at defending the paint.

Anthony Davis is one of the top 10 or 15 defenders in the NBA, is switchable, can defend the paint and the perimeter, against guys at a variety of positions and heights. That's just the reality of the situation. We all know he can be lazy on that end, and that inconsistency hurts him (it probably cost him a DPOY in 2017-18) but when he's locked in he's as good as anyone. We all saw that during the Portland sweep a few seasons ago, and he's been a finalist for DPOY three times because of it, and will very possibly win it this year.

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Anyone who says AD can guard any position on the floor is 100xs more ridiculous and absurd than someone who points out that top end players (not just Durant) can score on him repeatedly. When someone takes the time to type out their point fully, read the whole thing. I even clearly typed out that even though guys like Durant score on everybody, a true DPOY type defender can manage to slow him down and make him inefficient while scoring 35. AD cannot do that.

This is not just some angry Pelicans fans throwing �� at AD now that he is a Laker. I've said that when he was here. He cannot guard 1s and 2s or All Star caliber 3s. He is nowhere near as switchable as Draymond.

He is top 5 defending other bigs. My contention is anybody that takes that too far and says he can defend any position on the floor. AD doesn't have that kind of quickness and is simply not built for that. Never has.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

He is top 5 defending other bigs. My contention is anybody that takes that too far and says he can defend any position on the floor. AD doesn't have that kind of quickness and is simply not built for that. Never has.

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As a big, guarding any position on the floor and being switchable is more about the ability to switch in the PnR. Sure, you're not going to tell AD to go out and guard Kyrie for a whole night; but AD is as good as anyone in the league at switching on to guards and wings in the pick and roll. I think we can all agree that Gobert and Embiid are insanely good defenders, but theyre not in the same league as AD at switching when AD is full engaged. Draymond is in a category by himself. He's the best defender of this decade, and we shouldn't be using him as a comparison when determining someone's defensive abilities.

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

As a big, guarding any position on the floor and being switchable is more about the ability to switch in the PnR. Sure, you're not going to tell AD to go out and guard Kyrie for a whole night; but AD is as good as anyone in the league at switching on to guards and wings in the pick and roll. I think we can all agree that Gobert and Embiid are insanely good defenders, but theyre not in the same league as AD at switching when AD is full engaged. Draymond is in a category by himself. He's the best defender of this decade, and we shouldn't be using him as a comparison when determining someone's defensive abilities.

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In no sentence did I type that hes going to guard Kyrie all night either. Let's stop introducing ridiculous points nobody made.

In no situation will AD slow down a Kyrie Irving (or any talented wing) to the level a Kawhi, Draymond, Paul George, Klay Thompson, Giannis, Jrue, or a Jimmy Butler. He is a top defender near the paint and rim.

And nobody claims Embiid and Gobert are switchable on anybody. The same holds true for AD. Just becuaset he might be relatively better than those two at it doesn't mean he excels there either.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

In no situation will AD slow down a Kyrie Irving (or any talented wing) to the level a Kawhi, Draymond, Paul George, Klay Thompson, Giannis, Jrue, or a Jimmy Butler. He is a top defender near the paint and rim.

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Ok then to your exact point, other than Draymond and Giannis, no one on that list is slowing down AD, Embiid, Jokic; so by your definition of the term, they're not switchable either. There's zero point in arguing defensive value across positions.

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

Ok then to your exact point, other than Draymond and Giannis, no one on that list is slowing down AD, Embiid, Jokic; so by your definition of the term, they're not switchable either. There's zero point in arguing defensive value across positions.

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That illogical because 95% of the time, when it comes to those guys (or those positions), you're not going to see a switch. The 5% of the time it does happen, I wouldn't concede points will be scored.

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Originally Posted by luckyman

That illogical because 95% of the time, when it comes to those guys (or those positions), you're not going to see a switch. The 5% of the time it does happen, I wouldn't concede points will be scored.

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Well it looks like your mind is made up then.

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Originally Posted by pelafanatic

As a big, guarding any position on the floor and being switchable is more about the ability to switch in the PnR. Sure, you're not going to tell AD to go out and guard Kyrie for a whole night; but AD is as good as anyone in the league at switching on to guards and wings in the pick and roll. I think we can all agree that Gobert and Embiid are insanely good defenders, but theyre not in the same league as AD at switching when AD is full engaged. Draymond is in a category by himself. He's the best defender of this decade, and we shouldn't be using him as a comparison when determining someone's defensive abilities.

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Pretty much this.

Again, if anyone doubts AD's ability to do these things pelafanatic is talking about, go back to the Portland series and watch it. There are times in that series where it looks like AD is defending 3 guys at once in the same play. It's stunning to watch. AD's length, quickness, instinct, and timing when he's actually engaged are frightening and while yes, nobody is going to tell any real big to spend 48 minutes guarding a 6'3 PG with historically good handles like Kyrie, AD is quite simply the best big in the NBA when it comes to switching mid-action and fulfilling coverages.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

Pretty much this.

Again, if anyone doubts AD's ability to do these things pelafanatic is talking about, go back to the Portland series and watch it. There are times in that series where it looks like AD is defending 3 guys at once in the same play. It's stunning to watch. AD's length, quickness, instinct, and timing when he's actually engaged are frightening and while yes, nobody is going to tell any real big to spend 48 minutes guarding a 6'3 PG with historically good handles like Kyrie, AD is quite simply the best big in the NBA when it comes to switching mid-action and fulfilling coverages.

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Well you have to show me video proof of that. In that series the Pelicans used more of a trapping/blitzing style defense, especially when the ball touched Lillard's hands. Meaning any switching big had guard help.