The new Lonzo - buying or selling?

Lonzo has looked like a different player recently. He is playing the best ball of his career right now. Are you buying stock in Lonzo or not sure

I'm just waiting. He's now had 4 very good games in a row, but frankly, that's 4 out of around 130. And yes, it is a problem that he's in the middle of his third year and has only played about 130 total games.

I need to see consistency. If we're still seeing games like this regularly in a month's time (obviously a down game here or there is fine, that's expected) then I'll be more inclined to buy in.

Good signs though.

Lonzo is going to stay a Pelican. I think he’s playing better and I think he’s still going to get better and better. If he can attack the basket and have more of an inside game he will be a star. I’m convinced BI, ZO, ZION will all be ALL STARS 2021. Total domination is the plan. I’m buying.


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I don't know that he'll continue to score as well as he has, as he is still reliant on long range shooting for the majority of his points and that's a hard thing to do consistently. I do think he was not right physically to start the year. His first step, speed, and leaping ability look significantly better and he is able to use that to get to the middle of the floor where he can pass or get looks at the rim. I think he can keep doing that stuff and be a valuable player even if his year-long percentages reflect his shooting better than the last couple weeks do. I also think that Zion makes his passing accuracy and timing more valuable. He can help Zion get opportunities in transition and get the ball to him in the post and on cuts. I thought they looked like there was some chemistry there in preseason and Zo definitely wasn't playing nearly as well then.

A month ago, I thought the chance of him being a long-term piece was unlikely. I'm at the point where I want to see more, especially with how he fits with Zion.

Maybe I’m fickle, but BUY

I'd be a fan of his if he could just hit some free throws.

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Originally Posted by pelicanchamp

Lonzo is going to stay a Pelican. I think he’s playing better and I think he’s still going to get better and better. If he can attack the basket and have more of an inside game he will be a star. I’m convinced BI, ZO, ZION will all be ALL STARS 2021. Total domination is the plan. I’m buying.


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If this "NEW" Lonzo is consistent The Pels have one heck of a team with Zion coming back.Jrue,Reddick,Zion,Ingram and now the sudden turnaround of Ball you have 5 players that can give you 20 points a game.That's a very explosive team.They still have to get better defensively but that's a playoff team to me.

What I liked most about Lonzo last night was his defense on Mitchell. He hounded him the entire night. I'm not sure if it necessarily showed up in the box score (haven't looked at individual defensive numbers), but the eye test was extremely positive for Lonzo on that end.

Lonzo's assist/turnover ratio is outstanding over the last 4. It really does feel like the game is slowing down for him a bit as he continues to get healthy. He's still a dumpsterfire at the free throw line, but you can live with that if he's driving.

Lonzo hasn't just had good games, lately. That's underselling a lot. He's been great. Possibly even on the level of being the 3rd of a big 3. And as pelefanatic said, it's been two ways. Jrue level with more weight on offense and slightly less on D.

I don't know how long he can maintain the level. Like Dae said, consistency is key. Would be amazing if he did. But even if his play dropped slightly it would be right where we need him to be.

Need to see more. I do believe that he will only continue to get better. His free throws are an issue, but that can be improved over time.

It just seems like with repetition there’s no justifiable reason that he can’t become an average free throw shooter.


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The problem is the sample size. He doesn’t get to the line enough to give you an idea of how good or bad his ft shot really is. I don’t see this changing until he can get to the line with some consistency.

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Originally Posted by Snarly

The problem is the sample size. He doesn’t get to the line enough to give you an idea of how good or bad his ft shot really is. I don’t see this changing until he can get to the line with some consistency.

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He's 71 of 155 for his career, good for 45.5%. Its bad.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

He's 71 of 155 for his career, good for 45.5%. Its bad.

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And that’s barely averaging a little over 1 per game in his career. Not saying he’s ever going to be a 90% shooter from the stripe but a little more consistency getting to the line may help him with his rhythm. I mean he had 98 attempts in his 1 year at UCLA and was good for 67%. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe that he would shoot a bit better if he gets to the line a bit more.

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Originally Posted by Snarly

And that’s barely averaging a little over 1 per game in his career. Not saying he’s ever going to be a 90% shooter from the stripe but a little more consistency getting to the line may help him with his rhythm. I mean he had 98 attempts in his 1 year at UCLA and was good for 67%. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe that he would shoot a bit better if he gets to the line a bit more.

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The fact that he finds himself unable or unwilling (possibly both) to draw contact and get to the line is itself a problem. Saying that his dreadful percentages aren't that damning because he barely takes them might be true, but it just shifts the focus from being a bad FT shooter to being unable to get to the line, which is possibly worse because at least getting to the line puts fouls on the other guys.

If you add all of Lonzo's FTAs together for his entire career + college, he's been good for 53.9% on a little over 250 attempts.

That's just not very good. While I agree that shooting more of them might even things out a little bit (everyone has hot streaks and cold streaks) it's also clear at this point that there is something that's in the way of his FT shooting. Whether that's mechanical or mental, it's just obviously the case. He needs to see a sports psychologist if it's mental or work on modifying his shot in some way (maybe try the underhand FT? Looks ugly, I know, but does generally seem to work for people) and see if there's some success.

Not only has Lonzo been on fire, he's going to be even better when Zion gets back, their games are tailor made to fit each other.

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Originally Posted by Pelicanidae

He's 71 of 155 for his career, good for 45.5%. Its bad.

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He would have to make 100 consecutive FT just to hit 70%. Holy baby jesus that's awful

I don’t care about the sample size. It is large enough to indicate that he is a terrible FT shooter. He needs to improve there. Having said that, I’ll buy on Lonzo here. He can finish when he is up for it, and I think the longer he stays out of the spotlight with his father, the sooner he will get his head on right. It’s the mental aspect with Lonzo. He should continue to thrive under less pressure

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Originally Posted by Taker597

He would have to make 100 consecutive FT just to hit 70%. Holy baby jesus that's awful

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Yeah that is bad

Lonzo needs to work on free throws over and over. Gotta get him with the best free throw shooting coaches available and demand he start getting to the line and making 70 percent. It’s ALL mental. Lonzo has been distracted his entire career and he’s just now showing real signs of being a high level starting pg. he needs to get rid of distractions and improve FT and put on 15 lbs. he can do this. I’m a Lonzo Ball fan and I think he is going to be awesome.


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I have watched him for too long to get my hopes up after a few games. The only thing that has ever really been consistent about him is his inconsistency.

Self-confidence, half-court creativity and the requisite handles half-court creativity requires are not things that suddenly appear. But all are necessary in your starting PG.

I hope I am wrong and he turned a corner like BI did this year. However, their issues are different, and BI never lacked for confidence.

I've long thought the NBA has a general problem giving up on young players too quickly. Today they come in at 19 or 20 with a year of collegiate basketball and run up against NBA regulars. I think for most of them, though not all, it takes a full 2-3 years to begin to get a decisive read on their potential. Of course many won't pan out. But when you are talking about top 5 draft picks, I think you can afford to invest a little more time on their potential. I certainly put Lonzo in that category. So long as he's working to improve the weaknesses in his game, he's in a good situation for a long look see.

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Originally Posted by new city champ

Of course many won't pan out. But when you are talking about top 5 draft picks, I think you can afford to invest a little more time on their potential. I certainly put Lonzo in that category. So long as he's working to improve the weaknesses in his game, he's in a good situation for a long look see.

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The question is, how much time is that? A rookie scale contract for someone like Lonzo is 4 years, assuming no extension. If 4 years isn't long enough, you then either have to let them go or extend them. Say you extend them for another couple of years; now you've given them 7 years. Is that long enough? If not, and you need more time, you now will have to pay a lot to keep them because they're still relatively young (usually 25 or 26) and there will be some team out there willing to throw them cash just in case they haven't figured it out yet.

The issue isn't whether young players need time to figure it out, I think we all accept that for many young players that's true. The question is how long you can afford to wait for them to produce before you're just throwing good money after bad.

I made a thread a while back and was wondering why Zo wasn’t allowed to run the offense and “play his game” rather than be a “sit in the corner” guy. It seems lately Zo has been running the show and he’s playing well. He’s playing with a ton more confidence and his play and numbers are showing it.

I’m excited to see him grow with Zion, BI and Jax.

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Originally Posted by DroopyDawg

I made a thread a while back and was wondering why Zo wasn’t allowed to run the offense and “play his game” rather than be a “sit in the corner” guy. It seems lately Zo has been running the show and he’s playing well. He’s playing with a ton more confidence and his play and numbers are showing it.

I’m excited to see him grow with Zion, BI and Jax.

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Agree, they've been been letting Lonzo really play lead guard instead of being a passive bystander and it has made a huge difference. I don't discount either that he may just physically feel better. He certainly is being more assertive and you can see a version of him that could be a big, pass-first, PG with a passable 3 pointer, a la Jason Kidd. Super small sample size, but nevertheless his recent performances have been legit. Could be biggest X factor for Lonzo is injury. Hope the new training staff approach isn't just hype when it comes to injury prevention...

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Originally Posted by DroopyDawg

I made a thread a while back and was wondering why Zo wasn’t allowed to run the offense and “play his game” rather than be a “sit in the corner” guy. It seems lately Zo has been running the show and he’s playing well. He’s playing with a ton more confidence and his play and numbers are showing it.

I’m excited to see him grow with Zion, BI and Jax.

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I remember your post and agreed with it. Not sure what role Gentry had him playing previously, but it was very odd. Maybe it was because his ankle was still bothering him at the time. He looks much more comfortable running the offense now.

Buying! Absolutely no way I trade Lonzo unless someone blows us away. The kid does so many things most fans don’t see because they don’t care to. I’m not just on the band wagon because of a few great game he’s played but because I believe he can consistently do this as he grows and continues developing his game. Lonzo has the talent to be the best overall PG in the NBA and he’s showing at just 21 years old he can play that way at times. He came to a new system and has been plagued by nagging injuries while trying to adjust. All great players take time and I had to do the same crap defending Ingram against a bunch of idiots. Not saying Lonzo will be an MVP caliber player but I do believe in a year or 2 once he has put in the work he will be a star caliber guard. Again he’s 21 years old!!

I find it so ridiculous it’s like people want this kid to fail to be right about something. Do you know what Lonzo turning into the PG he can be does for this franchise?! He’s on the perfect position here to be the best player he can be. Yet some want him to fail that are Pelicans fan.. makes a ton of sense..

Lonzo's play has really stepped up.15 Assists against the Celtics.No way the Pels are trading him he fits like a glove with Zion,his shooting is much improved,he has a good all around game.
Lonzo in January 14.1ppg 7.2 rebounds 9.3 assists 1.4 steals and the defense has been good.Getting traded to the Pels was the best thing that could happen for him.

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Originally Posted by Wecandothis

Lonzo's play has really stepped up.15 Assists against the Celtics.No way the Pels are trading him he fits like a glove with Zion,his shooting is much improved,he has a good all around game.
Lonzo in January 14.1ppg 7.2 rebounds 9.3 assists 1.4 steals and the defense has been good.Getting traded to the Pels was the best thing that could happen for him.

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Agreed. Watching the progress of Lonzo has been great. At first he was a bit disappointing, but now he and Ingram (plus Hart and picks) from the trade have turned out much better than I expected.

So, having watched most of Lonzo's game since he was drafted, I have been cautious about coming to the conclusion that he has turned a corner, as he has always been a streaky up-and-down player--the ups and downs seemingly correlated with his vary degrees of engagement and enthusiasm on any given night if you pay attention to his body language and facial expressions. Despite his historically wonky shot, lack of touch around the basket, and lack of half court creative abilities, his primary deficit, in my opinion, has always been in the mental realm.

However, given that we have a little bit more data now, I am becoming more optimistic that he has turned a 'mental corner'. Take a look at his game log, paying particular attention to the game on 12/29. This was his first triple-double of the season, and an incredible one with 27 pts, super efficient, and not too many turnovers. Just look at the before and after games on his points, assists, and rebounds... It seems like something clicked for him in that game, like he came to the realization, "This is what I am capable of." It matches the eye test as well, as he has seemed more consistently mentally engaged in games and he is even getting more assertive in half-court sets.

He's already had two more triple-doubles in the short time since that game, and nearly another two more on 1/13 and 1/22. You don't get triple-doubles without mental engagement and effort, if achieving them more frequently is a new goal he has set for himself, e.g. Russel Westbrook. You can say all you want about RW's shortcomings (and I do, and they are many), but you cannot doubt the guy's effort and engagement every single game.

https://i.imgur.com/XdhXGPB.jpg

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

Not only has Lonzo been on fire, he's going to be even better when Zion gets back, their games are tailor made to fit each other.

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You weren’t never lying.

Baby steps... until we sign him to a long term contract. Then you better light it up b@@@@

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Originally Posted by SoCal4Pels

So, having watched most of Lonzo's game since he was drafted, I have been cautious about coming to the conclusion that he has turned a corner, as he has always been a streaky up-and-down player--the ups and downs seemingly correlated with his vary degrees of engagement and enthusiasm on any given night if you pay attention to his body language and facial expressions. Despite his historically wonky shot, lack of touch around the basket, and lack of half court creative abilities, his primary deficit, in my opinion, has always been in the mental realm.

However, given that we have a little bit more data now, I am becoming more optimistic that he has turned a 'mental corner'. Take a look at his game log, paying particular attention to the game on 12/29. This was his first triple-double of the season, and an incredible one with 27 pts, super efficient, and not too many turnovers. Just look at the before and after games on his points, assists, and rebounds... It seems like something clicked for him in that game, like he came to the realization, "This is what I am capable of." It matches the eye test as well, as he has seemed more consistently mentally engaged in games and he is even getting more assertive in half-court sets.

He's already had two more triple-doubles in the short time since that game, and nearly another two more on 1/13 and 1/22. You don't get triple-doubles without mental engagement and effort, if achieving them more frequently is a new goal he has set for himself, e.g. Russel Westbrook. You can say all you want about RW's shortcomings (and I do, and they are many), but you cannot doubt the guy's effort and engagement every single game.

https://i.imgur.com/XdhXGPB.jpg

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The Conundrum with Westbrook is basically when a streaky subpar shooter gas his way to a triple double isn't a winning formula. When they're hot and efficient.. He is Clearly a world beater, but you can bet more often than not that he won't be one.

Lonzo got to be just efficient.

I honestly think Westbrook's biggest crime as a player has been popularising the idea that a triple-double automatically means you had a great game.

No option to hold?

I'm buying. I like what I've seen recently. Getting away from L.A. is probably good for what ailed him.