Thoughts on the possibility of the Pelicans trading AD to Boston for Tatum and pick(s) then packaging first round picks for #1 to get Zion?
Worth it? Insane? Why would it work? Why wouldn't it work? Thanks for the discussion!
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Thoughts on the possibility of the Pelicans trading AD to Boston for Tatum and pick(s) then packaging first round picks for #1 to get Zion?
Worth it? Insane? Why would it work? Why wouldn't it work? Thanks for the discussion!
No one is going to take some mid 1sts for the 1st overall. Not this season, not ever
Can't say never based on not knowing exactly where the ping pong balls land...yet. Right? Besides what if Boston send two 1sts and package that with NOLA's first. Three first rounders not worth the move up? Especially if they are upper mid-level? I mean the Saints DID trade an entire draft to move up to get Ricky Williams..>sigh<
Assuming that we NEEDED to get Zion, the only possible way I could think of doing it would be for our pick to jump into the top 4, and then trade it + all three Boston picks, plus a future first of ours.
And once it gets to the point where you're trading the 3rd, 13th, 20th, and 22nd picks, + a 2021 first, just for one player, you've got to step back and ask yourself if what you're doing is ridiculous.
Whoever gets the #1 pick will take Zion... if for nothing else he'll sell tickets. They're not trading the pick but its fun to dream.
This isn’t the NFL. Top picks depending on who is there are almost unattainable.
What's the list of teams who could be reasonably considered to be open to trading the #1 this summer?
1) NYC - the dream of adding AD to a mixture containing Kyrie, or Durant, or both, could be extremely enticing. Zion doesn't fit that timeline which would be an immediate championship contender.
2) Atlanta Hawks - they could potentially trade John Collins + #1 for AD, because they would still have Trae Young and the pick they recieve from Dallas. Depending on where the Dallas pick falls, they could see Collins + Zion as worth trading for AD, considering the pairing of Trae and AD would be extremely promising and they'd still have a possible top 4 pick.
3) Washington - They're capped out beyond belief. They could be willing to ship off the number 1 pick for AD in the hopes that AD/Wall/Beal would salvage something for them in the Wall era and prevent them from being a lottery team next year as well.
4) Los Angeles - They could be eager enough for AD/Lebron pairing that they ship Zion off to us for AD. This is made more likely because they have a guarantee that AD would resign with them.
That's pretty much it. 4 teams out of 29 would possibly trade #1 for AD. And two of those (Atlanta and Washington) are very, very unlikely. Phoenix, Cleveland, Chicago, Memphis, Minnesota: none of those make the trade.
I think the value of Zion has gone up considerably since the all-star break. At the time it was reasonable to assume teams would move the pick for AD, but I'm not so sure anymore. Zion's efficiency numbers are unreal and given he'd be on a rookie contract, I think our best bet is for Knicks/Lakers/Celtics via Sacramento to land at #2.
In regards to the Lakers at #1, Rich Paul may also wind up being Zion's agent. In that scenario, I don't see how Rich Paul doesn't look at the money making potential and keeps that pick off the table for Pelicans.
We need to pray Zion doesn't decide on going the Rich Paul route.
I understand why you would say that, but you still have to ask the question (when it comes to the Knicks) is whether they think rookie Zion is a better fit with KD and Kyrie than Anthony Davis is.
He's not. Just obviously not. He's a rookie, which is inherently a risk. He has yet to show consistent shooting. There are questions as to whether certain skills of his will translate to the league. Now, I'm big enough on him to assume that those skills WILL pass over, but if you're New York, why risk it when you could just get AD and guarantee 28/13 with 3blocks a game with zero doubt or problem?
AD + KD + Kyrie: Instant championship contention
Zion + KD + Kyrie: Who knows? Could be amazing, but also could very much NOT be, depending on how fast Zion develops.
I agree on the NY front where they get both Kyrie + KD. But it's just not the auto trade that we once thought it was.
Yeah, but there's a high chance that any trade will be done before the July 1st point which is when teams will be allowed to start offering contracts to players. So if NY think they have a real chance of assembling KD and Kyrie to go with AD, they have to pull the trigger on AD first to get it done, which works in our favour. Cause they know that if Boston gets AD, then there's pretty much no chance of Kyrie heading to NY, and all of the potential evaporates.
It's not automatic, sure you're right on that, but the order of deadlines actually helps us a lot in this.
That's why I said that they were ''very, very unlikely'' at the end. I think there is a perspective for them that says Trae + AD + their other high value pick will help kick-start their rebuild and give them a big name talent who is proven on an NBA level which is helpful, but it's probably not going to be the perspective they actually have. You're right when you say Zion fits their timeline, and obviously he does bring a lot of hype as well.
Yeah. You know, even our local media (which is really weak when it comes to Pels) (alternate media excluded-BirdWrites , Locked in Pels & BBS.) is reporting incorrect information. They are pushing the "Pels can't do anything until new season starts July 1) Its as if they have no idea that this only applies to FA's.
We would have to wait until July 1st for Boston, that much is true. But if the lottery happens and NY gets the #1 pick and they decide to give us that in a trade, then we can make THAT trade (or any number of other trades) much earlier. And of course, trades can always be agreed upon in principle before being executed later.
I have low-key texting my friends about this but afraid to share it publicly
— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) April 4, 2019
This got me thinking further:
— Carter Rodriguez (@Carter_Shade) April 4, 2019
Of the 14 current lotto teams, how many of them would trade the #1 pick for Anthony Davis?
Right now, I'd have:
DEFINITES:
- Knicks (if they sign Kyrie and/or KD)
- Lakers
MAYBES:
- Dallas
- Miami
- ...Philly?
- ...Wizards? https://t.co/Od5u7IOcAb
This is the initial list that Carter gave the ''general thesis'' for, that Shamit agreed with.
Just want to add that I DON'T think that Dallas trade Zion for AD. I think they would take Porzingis + Doncic + Zion as their future.
Interesting. I also found this-
Quote:
Mason Ginsberg (@MasonGinsberg)
4/4/19, 3:03 PM
Inspired by @Carter_Shade: here's a "Zion to the Pelicans Probability Table" I just quickly threw together (tried to be conservative) based on the current lottery odds (if the season ended today): pic.twitter.com/HJUt5KYsun
Getting the #1 pick is probably the only think that gets the Lakers a spot back at the table for AD.
That gives us pretty much a 20% chance of getting Zion, which I think is pretty reasonable. I think after the lottery, when we know who has what, that will all solidify into something much more real. If NYC gets the #1 pick, for example, I think we probably have a 50% chance of getting Zion.
Agreed on LA as well. If they have Zion, they can have AD. Or at least, they have a very good reason to be in consideration again. Short of that, the 12th pick and Ingram isn't gonna do it.
To be crystal clear so everyone understands:
We do not have to wait until the start of the new NBA year to agree to a trade with Boston or anyone else.
Once the team's season is over they can discuss and agree to trades at any time, even if the trade cannot be **executed** until the new NBA year and the start of free agency.
Even a trade with NYK would probably be agreed upon before the draft but not executed until later because they can't include DSJ until the start of the new NBA year.
We know that. It's just very unfortunate that our MAJOR local media is still peddling this July 1 garbage.
A Trade can be made & executed immediately after said team(s) season is over, so long as all players are under contract with current team for next year minus the specific in season trade restrictions .
FWIW, just heard on the radio this evening on the way home. Chris Broussard and Rob Parker The Odd Couple) had Caron Butler on the show. Both he and Broussard say they're hearing from their sources that KD to the Knicks is basically a done deal. So if the Knicks get KD, and Kyrie decides to leave and join him, where does that leave us regarding AD? Boston may not want him with Kyrie gone, NYK may not be able to take him along with KD and Kyrie.
The Knicks can take him along with KD and Kyrie. That trio is the entire basis of all of the Knicks talk since AD asked for the trade. The Knicks have barely $36m on their books for next season. They would obviously be required to swap essentially $27m of that for AD. So that will not actually add much to their current on-payroll salary. The salary cap for next season is $109m. That means they would have $73m left (assuming pure cap, no extra payments), which means they could theoretically offer KD and Kyrie both $30m contracts, while still trading for AD, and still not have actually met the cap.
Any trade that we do will have been already agreed before July 1st. Teams cannot sign players in free agency until July 6th. Kyrie CANNOT leave until July 6th. We will have already completed the trade by that point, and it's highly likely that Kyrie will be waiting to make his decision until after he sees where AD goes. Unless Kyrie tells Boston in certain terms that he is 100% leaving, then his decision makes ZERO impact on the trade for us.
I've asked this before, but I'll resubmit the question as we move toward the end of the season:
Would you consider making a deal with the Knicks for Davis BEFORE the draft lottery is announced? In that scenario you'd get your preferred basket of players (Knox, et al) + 3 picks, one of which would be the first rounder this year.
In doing this deal you would assume the risk of NY's pick. It was a 14% chance of being number one overall and a better than 50% chance of being top three. I believe it cannot fall out of the top five or six.
So, even worst case, you downside is a top-5 pick to go along with Pels own pick and the upside is Zion + Pels pick (Coby?).
Why do it? If you don't believe the Knicks will trade you Zion in a deal for Davis and you are willing to roll the dice to try and get him. I think you'd also have to like the Knicks young players. I think you'd also have to have real concerns about the Celtics offering Tatum.
It's certainly a roll of the dice but you've hedged your downside pretty effectively with two pics in the top 6 + Knicks future picks + 3 prospects from Knicks roster. Upside is Zion, Coby, Knox, Robinson, Smith, Jr. and a pretty good jumpstart on our rebuild.
Tampering too
http://nba.nbcsports.com/2019/04/05/...boston-jersey/
Quote:
This looks like a clear case of tampering. The Celtics used a player under contract with another team to promote themselves.
It’s also pretty harmless (and funny) – like many instances of tampering, some of which the NBA punishes teams for. There’s little consistency in the league’s standards on tampering, so I wouldn’t even guess how Boston will get treated here.
Dissing Coby!
Just an option, though I think you're underrating him. But that's a different thread...
As a more serious answer though, I'm not a fan of the idea. I do see that there are upsides to it (there is a chance, however miniscule, that the Knicks don't trade the pick if they get #1: in this case, they have no choice and it's done already, for example), but there are also massive downsides: what if the Knicks pick falls to #5 and whoever jumps up to #1 WOULD have been willing to trade with us, but can't now? Then we've essentially traded Zion Williamson for Cam Reddish*. That's a bad swap. It also prevents the Celtics from getting in on things, and as much as I don't think the Celtics have the undisputed best package, we'd be silly not to even give them a chance to make their case, especially in the scenario that has the Knicks picking at #4 or lower.
It's safer, sure, because we have a deal locked in and we know what we'll be getting, but it still contains SOME risk because we don't know what the pick would be, and that's a problem. If the pick ends up at #1, it's a steal. If the pick ends up at #5, it's a horrible trade. And this is the kind of move where you don't take coin-flip chances. Wait until after the lottery when you can bargain properly and know what you're getting.
*I don't actually think Reddish will get picked at #5, it was just an example of how bad it could be.
Like Robinson as well. Knox is a 19-year-old on a bad team who has been allowed to be something of a volume shooter. Still he's 35% from behind the arc and has flashed a nice all around game as a one-and-done rookie. His overall FG % has been bad though. I think you'd also want to grab DSJ, if for nothing other than trade bait down the road. He's only 21 and also has good upside potential.
I'm with you in that if I was the Knicks I'd trade Zion in a deal to get Davis. I just have concerns that Knicks won't want to part with that marketing bonanza if they get him + it feels more and more like Kyrie is going to bolt which may pull Tatum out of any deal with Celts. Considering hedges to keep from getting caught in a cross wash...
I could see Dallas trading Zion for AD. Cuban likes to win, now. Cuban likes to win now and ge likes the sure things. I think it's like a 60/40 they keep Zion but it is certainly reasonable enough to keep them in a thread discussion.
I highly doubt we trade for lotto balls. Like Mythrol said, there's enough teams who might be interested where we will wait to see who lands where before trading.
Knox. Wow. His stock dropped so fast.
And yes, the Knicks would absolutely choose AD over Zion if they land the superstars.
If Kyrie bolts to NYK, Boston would want to get AD not just to have him but also to prevent an Eastern conference team from becoming the next superpower. I think Tatum stays on the table for that reason. I've been beating this drum to death but teams are not just lining up to get AD, they also want to insure rivals don't get him.
True about Cuban, I didn't actually think of that. I've been just working on the premise of a sensible rebuild, but Cuban (who is always trying to make The Big Move, like you say) could easily think that after a year, Doncic is way ahead of schedule and try to fast-forward the rebuild by trading for AD. It's not impossible.
Edit: Just want to add that I do personally think Doncic + AD is a playoff duo in the West. Bottom tier, sure, like 8th or 7th seed, but still.
this.....
this forum continues to run with these fantasies of us somehow getting zion. Zion williamson at this moment is the single most valuable commodity in the entire nba. That doesnt mean he will be the best player next year(or even close)....but all things considered(salary, hype, marketing, etc) he is the most valuable asset.
whoever wins the lottery is 100% guaranteed to not trade that pick.