An Argument for Running It Back Next Season

From Article:

There is nothing that gets a fan base more excited than change, or even the possibility of change. Even when a franchise is winning, a tweet, or a message board post about that team possibly acquiring a new player will get more views than any other topic by a wide margin. The thinking is that the right player can turn a bad team into a good one, or a good team into a great one, or even a great one into an elite one. After the Heat won two straight titles, one of the biggest topics on Miami message boards that summer was whether the Heat could add Carmelo the following summer. It’s just what we do, and there is nothing wrong with it.

But it is not always the right thing to do if you are an NBA GM.

The Atlanta Hawks finished a disappointing 38-44 last season under first year Head Coach Mike Budenholzer, and despite pushing the #1 seed in the East to seven games, many of their fans supported wholesale changes. Al Horford had been unable to stay on the court two of the three previous seasons, Paul Milsap and Demarre Carroll were going into the last years of their contract, and Jeff Teague was a guard in his mid-20’s that had shown flashes of greatness but had never been able to be great consistently. The Hawks were a mediocre team by most metrics, finishing with a -0.5 point differential. On top of that, they had little to no cap room and a first rounder in the late teens, so there didn’t seem to be a way to add a major piece to their squad without sending a couple of core guys out.

But a funny thing happened last summer. They did add two major pieces, and no I am not talking about Thabo Sefolosha and Adreian Payne. I am talking about Health and Continuity. Their top 8 guys have missed a total of 44 games combined this season (Horford missed 53 by himself the year before), and several of those have come because of rest due to the fact that Atlanta is so far ahead of everyone else in the Eastern Conference. The other thing they added was continuity. Guys got another training camp together. They bought into the systems and became that much more comfortable with them now that they had another year under their belts.

They went from 18th in offensive rating to 6th. They climbed from 14th to 8th on the defensive side of the ball. And all they did personnel wise was send out Louis Williams and add Thabo Sefolosha. Trust me, this isn’t an article about how great Sefolosha has been for the Hawks, and how he turned them around. In fact, he has been pretty bad this year and hasn’t been a difference maker in any single aspect. He has played the fewest games of all their rotation players (45), is shooting terribly from deep (29%), and has continued his decline defensively as well. He is not the reason Atlanta is better; Health and Continuity are.

Read the rest of the article at:

http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/20...k-next-season/

Curious about how you guys would feel about this, and what realistic alternative routes you would prefer if you are opposed to this idea.

If McGee was cheaper than Ajinca this offseason would you entertain bringing him in as a backup even with his baggage?

Great article as usual. I think I agree (assuming Dell and Monty are back). Too many unanswered questions about too many guys on our team at the moment, and it does make more sense to be more aggressive a year down the road (as needed).

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Originally Posted by AD23nEG10

If McGee was cheaper than Ajinca this offseason would you entertain bringing him in as a backup even with his baggage?

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Probably not. I like Ajinca behind Asik because I can play offense/defense. McGee would be a little too similar to Asik as far as what he provides if he gets his head on straight. IF

Really good article. When you look at all the lineup numbers, it really is amazing how bad our injury luck has been. My optimistic side leads me to believe that with a mostly healthy roster for the majority of next season, we can finish in the top 4 in the west.

While I agree with the plan of bringing it back, it's not like anything has gone to plan yet...
In my mind, even if Dell and Monty are back, the 2 places I see the best odds of change are:
1- Asik gets priced out for us. If somebody pays more than we are willing to, how much space does this open up?
2- Ryno gets traded, either because he wants to start or because he's the best trade asset we've got

Much as I am not an Asik fan, I also don't see a reasonable plan B. keep Ajinca and sign McGee, and pray? As much as I feel better about Ajinca as a back-up, what could we afford.
and with Ryno, on the court we may be selling low, and off the court this guy is everything you want in a player (heck, he's everything you want in a son)

Another year in the system, with some health, could do wonders as laid out in the article - and with our particular set of players and contracts we are much more flexible next trade deadline and next summer anyway. The timing of any 'blow it up and start over' plan is better then right? We are better off running it back and seeing if it works any way you look at it.

Good piece and good analysis. I think your argument is persuasive when you look at the big picture. Running it back one more year with Monty and this roster is a viable option given that cap flexibility we are going to have next offseason. Obviously, Gordon's expiring deal is going to become more and more attractive (assuming no injury and this level of play) from this point forward. I could see us potentially making a major move at the trade deadline next year, but I could also see us playing out the year if things are going well. The one question I might have is, assuming Dell comes back (as I think he should), does he go for keeping Monty and if you do keep Monty, do you give him any sort of extension this offseason or bring him back on a "prove it" basis on the last year of his deal?

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Originally Posted by new city champ

Good piece and good analysis. I think your argument is persuasive when you look at the big picture. Running it back one more year with Monty and this roster is a viable option given that cap flexibility we are going to have next offseason. Obviously, Gordon's expiring deal is going to become more and more attractive (assuming no injury and this level of play) from this point forward. I could see us potentially making a major move at the trade deadline next year, but I could also see us playing out the year if things are going well. The one question I might have is, assuming Dell comes back (as I think he should), does he go for keeping Monty and if you do keep Monty, do you give him any sort of extension this offseason or bring him back on a "prove it" basis on the last year of his deal?

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That's the toughest part of this whole equation IMO. Usually, if you believe in a coach, you give him an extension before his final season. Pels could kind of be playing with fire if they don't. But, as long as the players don't view him as a lame duck coach, I think it will be fine.

The Hawks got rid of Josh Smith which was a big help. We have our own Josh Smith. Even though I like him he has to go. AHHHAHHHHAHHHA....REEEKKKKE. Excuse me...hope I didn't get any on you.

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Originally Posted by Asteptooslow

The Hawks got rid of Josh Smith which was a big help. We have our own Josh Smith. Even though I like him he has to go. AHHHAHHHHAHHHA....REEEKKKKE. Excuse me...hope I didn't get any on you.

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Josh Smith was on the Pistons in 13-14.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

That's the toughest part of this whole equation IMO. Usually, if you believe in a coach, you give him an extension before his final season. Pels could kind of be playing with fire if they don't. But, as long as the players don't view him as a lame duck coach, I think it will be fine.

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You could probably structure a new three-year deal with some outs tucked away in the fine print so if things go sideways you could buy him out without breaking the bank. It's tough to still have questions about your coach at this stage of the rebuild, but given the injury situation, I think we still don't know what he can do with a full roster and time. I do think his players want to play for him and that counts for a lot in my book as does his approach to handling the players and his genuine desire to bring a winner to New Orleans. He's a good guy and you like to see that succeed.

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Originally Posted by new city champ

You could probably structure a new three-year deal with some outs tucked away in the fine print so if things go sideways you could buy him out without breaking the bank. It's tough to still have questions about your coach at this stage of the rebuild, but given the injury situation, I think we still don't know what he can do with a full roster and time. I do think his players want to play for him and that counts for a lot in my book as does his approach to handling the players and his genuine desire to bring a winner to New Orleans. He's a good guy and you like to see that succeed.

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With Monty, I'm of the train of thought to keep him unless there is a significant chance for a clear upgrade. If Thibs is let go this off-season, he is borderline. I think he is a better coach, but his track record of playing his guys too many minutes would make me nervous, especially with how many guys we have that would be returning from injury.

I don't see anyone else that is likely to be on the market that would be markedly better than who we have now.

This paragraph is soooo depressing...

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Dell Demps put the ‘Finishing Five’ together two summers ago. Guess how many games they have played since coming together. No, seriously, go ahead and guess……. TWENTY-FIVE! Twenty freaking five. Guess how many minutes? 189. To put that in perspective, the Cleveland games main lineup (Kyrie-JR Smith-Lebron-Love-Mozgov) have played 382 minutes together this year. Oh yeah, and two of those guys were added in January. In two months, the Cavs main lineup has played together twice as much as the Pelicans have over the last two years.

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Great article MM. I agree with the run-back. But dammit will we ever be able to stay away form the injury bug? It seems like guys come here (to N.O.) and get hurt.

Nice article MM.
Maybe you can send this article to Loomis?

Seriously though, injury and continuity is this teams biggest problem. The team is almost there.

I completely agree with the premise and want us to see us take this strategy. Somehow, I'm somewhat jaded in my confidence of us actually being healthier next season. I guess at this stage, I'll believe it when I see it.

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Originally Posted by DroopyDawg

This paragraph is soooo depressing...

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http://i.imgur.com/x0iq6P3.gif

Maybe we are cursed. But if we are, swapping out pieces will serve no purpose - they'll just get hurt too.

Gotta hope we aren't cursed and guys get right and stay right this summer.

I don't really see much of a choice. I don't have much faith in this core, but at this point "riding it out" seems like the only logical course of action. I highly doubt we can get quality for anybody on this team other than Davis.

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Originally Posted by da ThRONe

I don't really see much of a choice. I don't have much faith in this core, but at this point "riding it out" seems like the only logical course of action. I highly doubt we can get quality for anybody on this team other than Davis.

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You could dump guys, stretch guys, and/or let FA's walk and then go after new guys. That would be a realistic alternative. No, I don't think you can get a lot for Tyreke, Ryno, or Gordon, but I think you can find a team willing to absorb any of them and then go pursue other guys like Monroe.

But I wouldn't be for that. I am excited about seeing what this team could be if we run it back and the injury gods reward us for our patience.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

I am excited about seeing what this team could be if we run it back and the injury gods reward us for our patience.

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Worked for Golden State.

Once they got healthy, they became scary.

monty had a good team with cp3 and we made the playoffs...........monty had a good team this season and we were in the playoff race.....our starting 5 has now miss games due to injuries and we were still fighting for a playoff spot.......yeah we loss games that we should have won but injuries killed our playoff chances...........so imo when monty have a good /healthy team,,,,,we have the playoffs to look forward to.................his bad teams have been fun to watch a lot of times imo because the guys never gave up and seem to play for him............


So i say yes to bringing monty back.......yes to bringing dell back...............please sign a big that can play in the paint and you can give the ball to when our shots are not falling.......we havent had that since david west and carl landry were here.......

I'd trade any of our other guys, and perhaps forgo any draft picks for the next 5 years if we could only get our top 3 players healthy and together for a few seasons, is that too much to ask?

He does not deserve a pass. 5 years is 5 years. What ever happens during that time period is irrelevant. 5 years. We have the (3rd/4th) longest tenured head coach in the NBA.... does that seem right to any of you? Would you like to know who has been around longer than Monty?? Would you like to compare their winning percentages? Its ugly.

I truly hope that the Pelicans brass does not feel the way that the majority of the posters in this thread do.


Otherwise we will be reading YET ANOTHER very similar article to this one, next year......

Cannot conduct business under the impression you are "cursed" as a franchise. They definitely need to give it another go with this group.

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Originally Posted by 6warddude

monty had a good team with cp3 and we made the playoffs..

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Let's not forget how we took it to the defending champ Lakers, albeit with a less talented team.

We just need some seasoning without injury.

Monty very well could be fired. They will be looking at the losses and why we lost. Any clear pattern besides injuries such as poor coaching will increase his risk for being fired. Injuries won't get him off the hook.

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Originally Posted by Caffeinedisastr

Let's not forget how we took it to the defending champ Lakers, albeit with a less talented team.

We just need some seasoning without injury.

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Do you realize the folly of using his first year success? Many coaches have great success at first...until their systems are adjusted to. When your first year is the best out of 5........

The real question is... how did we even make it to 5? Now we are looking at 6 years of befuddlement? Great.

I like our talent level a lot, in fact I think it's one the most talented teams in the league. However it takes more than talent to win in the NBA, it takes talent, chemistry with the right complimenting parts to win a championship. I'm sorry to say even with this team is fuilly healthy our parts don't compliment each other very well. Either it is talent, health, mental states of mind or conflicting egos in games that consistently hurt this team. Coaching is another aspect. We have seen Monty coach better with less talent...the cohesion seems to be better because less egos, talent and more team players. Sometimes less is more. This of course is just my observations and opinions.

Our bench players don't seem to get hurt.

And they are in the East

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Originally Posted by All Metro

And they are in the East

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No clue why that matters. Atlanta is 21-8 vs. the West this year and 22-10 against teams .500 or better.

You would take either of those, right?

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Originally Posted by Bongzilla

Do you realize the folly of using his first year success? Many coaches have great success at first...until their systems are adjusted to. When your first year is the best out of 5........

The real question is... how did we even make it to 5? Now we are looking at 6 years of befuddlement? Great.

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He made it to 5 because of instability.
I'm not certain I'd want to take a chance on a possibly lesser coach.
Would rather have a certain prospect before letting him go.

great article

Using the Hawks, and their SECOND YEAR COACH, is not a good comparison. Not one bit.

It is clear as day, that the COACH has impacted that team, a team with talent yet no real stars, in just his SECOND year. Your article is asking for a SIXTH year. To me, Budenholzer is about as clear as a reason to FIRE Monty as it gets.

They both have the same mentor right? Yes I know, injuries. Other teams just deal with injuries, we just use them as an excuse. And yes we have been devastated by injuries. Take a look around, other teams have HAD JUST AS MANY IF NOT MORE,,,, yet nobody talks about that.

Quick question. A 2 part question.

a) Which two teams have the best records in the NBA?
b) How many years have the coaches been there?


It is human nature to be scared of change, but history proves - without question - that those who are not afraid of change and take risks -- reap the rewards. Not every time obviously, but more often than not.

I am not advocating change just for the sake of change, but I believe we have all of the empirical evidence required to make an intelligent decision at this point.

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Originally Posted by Bongzilla

Quick question. A 2 part question.

a) Which two teams have the best records in the NBA?
b) How many years have the coaches been there?


It is human nature to be scared of change, but history proves - without question - that those who are not afraid of change and take risks -- reap the rewards. Not every time obviously, but more often than not.

I am not advocating change just for the sake of change, but I believe we have all of the empirical evidence required to make an intelligent decision at this point.

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I would not argue that change is bad, I would also argue that change for change's sake is not the right path. As I said in the article, if you can get Gasol or Jordan or Kawhi, etc. go for it.

But if you are swapping up middling parts for middling parts, then any slight improvement in a vacuum from those players would be outweighed by the continuity you use.

Also, with regard to Monty and coaches. Yes, the top two coaches are new. But there are some new coaches that were disasters too (see: Lionel Hollins and Brian Shaw). My argument for considering continuity is because we don't know what we have here yet. Golden State saw what their team was with Mark Jackson. They saw the ceiling. I have 169 minutes of data with our 5 starters and it is great. I can't advocate that change is absolutely necessary if I didn't absolutely know what I was changing from

I have a question, because I honestly don't know: Could the reason for our litany of injuries stem from Monty's practice regiment? If so, a new style may be necessary. Keeping the same core with some tweaks of course.

I go back and forth on Monty like a feather in the breeze, BUT, if change means a Lionel Hollins, Avery Johnson, Vinny Del Negro, stick-in-the-mud type, then I'll take the bird in hand. With the caveat being our core as designed by our GM has not played together. I think it's fair to point out that despite the injuries, despite the unique situation of the owner not hiring the GM who didn't hire the coach, The team has improved in successive years despite the disruption this team has faced over the years. DelMonty, if nothing else, have proven they have the temperament to provide a foundation of stability and that means something. Now, if the ownership group has a plan to bring in a visionary a young Sam Hinkie-type, a Sam Presti-type, who they are willing to give the reins to in an effort to build a culture from the ground up, FINE. Do your thing, Benson, its your party. But to fire DelMonty because of some imaginary line of success hasn't been reached is flat out absurd. Joe Dumars or even Jerry West in his prime, wouldn't do much to move the needle on THIS team under THESE circumstances. We would cement ourselves as mediocre also rans to make a move because we fell 2 or 3 games short of some arbitrary, relative finish line.

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Originally Posted by Jabberwalker

Josh Smith was on the Pistons in 13-14.

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Yes...duh. I meant that once he left Detroit...they went on a streak. Injuries and trades ruined that, but sometime one player (even if they are good) leaving can make a difference. I think Reke IS like Rudy Gay in that they can put up some impressive numbers but the teams don't necessarily prosper.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

Also, with regard to Monty and coaches. Yes, the top two coaches are new. But there are some new coaches that were disasters too (see: Lionel Hollins and Brian Shaw). My argument for considering continuity is because we don't know what we have here yet. Golden State saw what their team was with Mark Jackson. They saw the ceiling. I have 169 minutes of data with our 5 starters and it is great. I can't advocate that change is absolutely necessary if I didn't absolutely know what I was changing from

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These are all valid points, and I do not discount any of them. While I agree with you that change just for the sake of change is normally not a good thing, sometimes it is. And while I also agree that Monty has had a bad streak of luck, I am of the mindset that we must all deal with the hand that we have been dealt. 5 years of bad luck, is still 5 years. This is a very very long time for excuses and mediocrity. Yes I am a results based extremist, so my bias is clear, but that does not change the validity of my point, which is simply put - he has had 5 years.

You purport that if Monty had the finishing 5 all healthy, he would lead us where? This is your main point of contention and reason to give a 6th chance, but have you ever revealed where his/our ceiling would be? Obviously this would just be your opinion, but I am genuinely asking.

You say what if they were all healthy? I say, what if Monty is an indirect/direct cause? Perhaps his entire defensive scheme which is heavy in rotations and long close outs is tough on the legs? Perhaps he is drilling them too hard in practice? Perhaps his schedule requires to much lifting and not enough resting? There are lots of variables would could go through.

Here is my final what if.... What if, we go through this all again next year? Holiday's stress fracture re-occurs, Anderson has been glass for the last 2 years, what if EG gets back to his injured ways? Will Monty get a 7th season?

When will the "injury card" be enough?

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Originally Posted by Bongzilla

Do you realize the folly of using his first year success? Many coaches have great success at first...until their systems are adjusted to. When your first year is the best out of 5........

The real question is... how did we even make it to 5? Now we are looking at 6 years of befuddlement? Great.

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Originally Posted by Bongzilla

Quick question. A 2 part question.

a) Which two teams have the best records in the NBA?
b) How many years have the coaches been there?

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GSW. And their coach is on his first year.

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Originally Posted by Bongzilla

Here is my final what if.... What if, we go through this all again next year? Holiday's stress fracture re-occurs, Anderson has been glass for the last 2 years, what if EG gets back to his injured ways? Will Monty get a 7th season?

When will the "injury card" be enough?

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I think everything you said are all valid arguments. I would say the answer to your last question is when the team stops showing improvement. In the last 3 complete seasons, our win totals have been 21, 27, 34. This season we already have 37 wins and the season is not over. In a vacuum, you might say that progress is not fast enough. When you add in the injuries we've had to that positive trajectory, I think he gets one more season.

My opinion is if we are healthy next year, we need to be not only a playoff team, but competitive against our first round opponent. If we have injuries like you mentioned again, I think we still need to see improvement on our win total. If neither of these two things happen, that's when I'll be ready to pull the plug on Williams.

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Originally Posted by MichaelMcNamara

You could dump guys, stretch guys, and/or let FA's walk and then go after new guys. That would be a realistic alternative. No, I don't think you can get a lot for Tyreke, Ryno, or Gordon, but I think you can find a team willing to absorb any of them and then go pursue other guys like Monroe.

But I wouldn't be for that. I am excited about seeing what this team could be if we run it back and the injury gods reward us for our patience.

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That was my point. Not that we couldn't start all over around Davis, but we would be getting less value for the players we have. This of course is assuming we'd be able to convince the better free agents to sign with the team.

IMO there's a difference between Horford's injury (pectoral) and the leg injuries our guards are plagued with. I wouldn't be surprised if EG and tyreke end up with chronic joint problems. I don't see health and continuity in the future for those 2 at all, especially EG. Sell them ASAP>