Pelicans Lottery Possibilities

This has been thrown about before, but here's a nice quick way to look at it. By finishing with the 5th worst record, our odds are as follows when the lottery drawing occurs on Thursday, May 21st.


Pelicans odds by pick:


#1----------8.8%

#2----------9.7%

#3----------10.7%

#4-----------0%

#5----------26.1%

#6----------36%

#7----------8.4%

#8----------0.4%



Here are the same numbers in order by probability:


#6----------36%

#5----------26.1%

#3----------10.7%

#2----------9.7%

#1----------8.8%

#7----------8.4%

#8----------0.4%


(all other picks, including #4, 0% chance)

So dumb how having the 5th pick actually means #6 is more likely. hahaha

Just about odds of being 7th or 1st :/

I like the Pelicans in the thread title

Why is there a 0% chance at #4?

Can someone explain why we have a 0% at 4?

Because we can only move up to 1, 2 or 3. Only the first three positions are drawn, after that it defaults to the worst to best teams in remaining order.

The Lottery is drawn for picks #1, 2, & 3. So every team in the lottery has a chance at #1, 2, or 3, or the pick they are currently slotted in, or to move back up to three spots (depending how many teams are slotted behind them in the lottery before the drawing)

That is a bummer.

Using the expectation formula on the pick probability PMF, we can calculate the expected pick the Pels will get:

If E[X] = summation from 1 to 8 of P_i*X_i, then:
1*0.088 + 2*0.097 + 3*0.107 + 4*0 + 5*.261 + 6*.36 + 7*.084 + 8*0.004 = 4.688

So our expected pick is 4.688-- or in real draft pick numbers-- 5. But I like to find it encouraging that the statistics point us to fare a little bit better than 5. :)

I now understand, thanks...

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Originally Posted by MRider

Using the expectation formula on the pick probability PMF, we can calculated the expected pick the Pels will get:

If E[X] = summation from 1 to 8 of P_i*X_i, then:
1*0.088 + 2*0.097 + 3*0.107 + 4*0 + 5*.261 + 6*.36 + 7*.084 + 8*0.004 = 4.688

So our expected pick is 4.688-- or in real draft pick numbers-- 5. But I like to find it encouraging that the statistics point us to fare a little bit better than 5. :)

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Stats Nerd :p

NOELS!

Make Burke Happen

#6 may be the most likely scenario if we're looking at single numbers, but there is a 55.3% chance that we have a top 5 pick, including 27.2% chance for a top 3 pick. I like the odds to be happy with who we get.

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Originally Posted by WhoDatPelican

Make Burke Happen

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We get Burke... we need to trade Gordon. Don't think they can co-exist lol

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Originally Posted by Bee-Fense

#6 may be the most likely scenario if we're looking at single numbers, but there is a 55.3% chance that we have a top 5 pick, including 27.2% chance for a top 3 pick. I like the odds to be happy with who we get.

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Where've you been bro? Bout to lose your sim league team... and Vince Carter!

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

We get Burke... we need to trade Gordon. Don't think they can co-exist lol

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

Where've you been bro? Bout to lose your sim league team... and Vince Carter!

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Performing Shakespeare is a daunting task that has taken away a lot of my free time. Also just been busy with school, preparing for college, and the other regular things.

May the odds be forever in the Pelicans favor

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Originally Posted by Bee-Fense

Performing Shakespeare is a daunting task that has taken away a lot of my free time. Also just been busy with school, preparing for college, and the other regular things.

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That's cool man! Just was curious. Hope everything is going well for ya!

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

We get Burke... we need to trade Gordon. Don't think they can co-exist lol

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Why not?

Well just from the games I've seen Burke play in, he seems to need the ball in his hands (as he should, being a point guard, facilitating the offense, and all)... but Gordon is kind of the same way in that he's ball-dominant. Just don't know how those two would play together

we gonna get the 3rd overall pick, we good!

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

Well just from the games I've seen Burke play in, he seems to need the ball in his hands (as he should, being a point guard, facilitating the offense, and all)... but Gordon is kind of the same way in that he's ball-dominant. Just don't know how those two would play together

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I think they can coexist since both can shoot wide open jumpers. They both can play off the ball.

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Originally Posted by Pelicans78

I think they can coexist since both can shoot wide open jumpers. They both can play off the ball.

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Agreed.

I hope y'all are right! haha

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Originally Posted by IamQuailman

Well just from the games I've seen Burke play in, he seems to need the ball in his hands (as he should, being a point guard, facilitating the offense, and all)... but Gordon is kind of the same way in that he's ball-dominant. Just don't know how those two would play together

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I think they could co-exist. Gordon is not a PG, so he would need to co-exist with one and the PG is going to need the ball. I think it would work (if Gordon even stays here though).

gordon and burke can not only co exist but they would excel with each other on the floor, both unselfish, both have drive, shoot, pass, set up other bigs, and spread the floor for each other. Neither are selfish either, it would be awesome to have them together, westbrook and durant both need the ball to be good, the thunder are doing so terrible aren't they...

gordon got cold tonight with the ball, the only time he was making shots was off ball or getting good passes while cutting to the rim, burke and gordon would be an awesome combo, people say they wouldnt really dont know what they are talking about im sorry. the only problem u could argue is that they give up size, but gordon never gets bullied by big SG's and i think monty will turn burke into a fine defenseman.

I'd personally trade our pick straight up for Bledsoe.

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Originally Posted by AD23forMVP

I'd personally trade our pick straight up for Bledsoe.

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I'd wait to see where we fall in the lottery. Anything top 3 and I say no. Anything below and I say yes.

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Originally Posted by Pelicans78

I think they can coexist since both can shoot wide open jumpers. They both can play off the ball.

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I won't mention any names since Burke couldn't be included, but if we keep the other one, Slim needs to be right about the offseason/ next season....we can't afford to have him miss approx. 60% of them....

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Originally Posted by AD23forMVP

I'd personally trade our pick straight up for Bledsoe.

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If otto porter, trey burke or ben mclemore would be available for our pick I just couldn't do it. If we land the 6th pick I could do it then but not for any of the top 5 guys

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Originally Posted by Inner_GI

So dumb how having the 5th pick actually means #6 is more likely. hahaha

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We don't have the fifth pick. We have the fifth slot.

None of the top 3 slots have max probability in the top 3. All of these are reasons to make sure that `tanking' is not a good thing . . . and it isn't.

Also, about that expectation . . . it's meaningless. It means that if you have 100 5th slots, your picks will add up to 469, give or take. It says nothing about a single outcome.

Expectations only really have meaning in the context of large samples or in theoretical applications.

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Originally Posted by Inner_GI

So dumb how having the 5th pick actually means #6 is more likely. hahaha

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Originally Posted by Bee-Fense

#6 may be the most likely scenario if we're looking at single numbers, but there is a 55.3% chance that we have a top 5 pick, including 27.2% chance for a top 3 pick. I like the odds to be happy with who we get.

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This, You still have a better chance of getting 5 or better than 6 or worse. It's almost a coin flip though.

if we wanna go by percentages ya we have a higher chance to land the 6th pick than the 5th but if u wanna play it that way we have a much higher chance at a top 5 pick and the 6th pick. Don't worry, in 2014 the first pick by the pelicans will be either burke, porter or oladipo.

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Originally Posted by Bee-Fense

#6 may be the most likely scenario if we're looking at single numbers, but there is a 55.3% chance that we have a top 5 pick, including 27.2% chance for a top 3 pick. I like the odds to be happy with who we get.

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This pretty much sums it up.

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Originally Posted by nolaslim213

This pretty much sums it up.

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hey slim i want ur opinion, burke, porter or oladipo?

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

hey slim i want ur opinion, burke, porter or oladipo?

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I'll answer it in your thread. Just saw it ;)

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Originally Posted by nolaslim213

I'll answer it in your thread. Just saw it ;)

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thanks

I wouldn't say it's meaningless, but I would say it'd become more meaningful with a large data set. Statistics is all about sample size, yup.

It does say something about our distribution. That calculation was more of a response to the 6th pick having the greatest probability than anything.

It says there's no 4, which skews it.

Of course, the distribution was specified and is pretty simple: close to 50% shot of moving back . . . nearly equal shots of staying put or moving up to some degree.

So the expectation tells us that 1-3 are more accessible than 7-8. No real insight.