5th, 6th, or 7th – What the Numbers Say About Where We Will Draft

We will know in 9 days how many lottery balls we will have for the May 21st Draft Lottery. Some teams have seperated themselves, and now the Hornets find themselves in a tier with Detroit and Sacramento fighting for the 5th, 6th, and 7th spots in the draft lottery. Detroit has 26 wins, while New Orleans and Sacramento each have 27. Now that we have a little better idea of where we are going to end up, let’s take a look at what it all means.
#1 Overall Pick

The Fifth Spot gives you a 8.8% chance at the pick
The Sixth Spot gives you a 6.3% chance at the pick.
The Seventh Spot gives you a 4.3% chance at the pick
Top 3 Pick

The Fifth Spot gives you a 29.2% chance of landing a top three pick
The Sixth Spot gives you a 21.5% chance of landing a top three pick
The Seventh Spot gives you a 15% chance of landing a top three pick
Falling in the Lotto

The Fifth Spot has a 44.8% chance of falling at least one position in the draft
The Sixth Spot has a 34.6% chance of falling at least one position in the draft
The Seventh Spot has a 25% chance of falling at least one position in the draft
What it All Means

The fifth position is pretty interesting because teams stay in that slot just 26% percent of the time. They are more likely to either move up or down than stay where they are. The sixth and seventh positions are a little different. The most likely outcome in those cases is that the Hornets would stay where they are. In all scenarios, however, it is very unlikely that the Hornets would fall more than one spot if they were to fall. There is about the same chance of falling two slots as there is of winning the lotto in each situation.
The fifth slot is the only slot out of the three that has a better than 50/50 chance of landing a top five pick (55.2%). This is significant because, as Ryan has pointed out on multiple occassions, a guy drafted in the top 5 is much more likely to be an ‘A’ or ‘B’ player than a guy taken 6-10. Also, from my perspective, there is a huge drop off after my top five prospects – Smart, Noel, Oladipo, Porter, and McLemore. I honestly have no idea who would be #6 for Dell after those guys and I have been tracking this all year. If you are in the 6th spot, you only have that same 21.5% chance of getting a top 5 pick, and the sixth slot has a 15% chance. That is where the huge difference lies in these three positions.
Looking Ahead

This will all come down to Wednesday night in my opinion when the Hornets go to Sacramento to play the Kings. Looking at the Kings schedule, it is hard to imagine them winning any game other than the Hornets one. New Orleans will be without Eric Gordon because it will be the second night of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, Detroit has a couple of easy games coming up, including Charlotte and Cleveland. They will also be playing a Nets team on the final night that will likely have nothing to play for and will be resting players. Bottom line, I expect the winner of the Hornets-Kings game to be in the 7th slot, the loser to be 5th. Big, big game.


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Great post, I really hope we can grab the 5th spot and luck out and land the 3rd overall pick.

I'm not a tank friend, but that Sac game might be a big one. I wouldn't be mad if we dropped it.

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Originally Posted by Purple Haze

I'm not a tank friend, but that Sac game might be a big one. I wouldn't be mad if we dropped it.

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im with u, im for sitting gordon and davis and letting aminu, xavier, miller battle it out and see who is gonna be on the team next year.

Monty I think is too much of a class act to pull a Bush league move like that.

Nothing busch league about playing players that have all seen time this year. X played a ton in the last game(s). Same with Miller in some games.

Also, to add to my above post. If they don't have enough evaluation data on those guys to decide if they should be a part of the future plans by now, I don't think a few games starting will change that.

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Originally Posted by Purple Haze

Nothing busch league about playing players that have all seen time this year. X played a ton in the last game(s). Same with Miller in some games.

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It's Busch to sit your starters for guys who have played all year.

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Originally Posted by BallSoHard

It's Busch to sit your starters for guys who have played all year.

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Well I'm not really sure what guru meant about sitting Davis, he doesn't play the whole 40 anyway. I'd play Davis 30+, start Mason at 2 and Miller at 3 though.

i meant theres no reason to play davis, he had a good year, no reason to risk injury in a non play-off year, get him in the weight room, dont need to play GV, he still has good trade value and would hate to have him injured right before the end of the season, id really like to see x, miller and aminu get heavy minutes, 30+

If I'm reading and assuming correctly (correct me if I'm wrong) he's saying to sit our best players so we will lose, mitigate injuries to our best players, and to evaluate talent.

I think Davis and gordon need as much time on court together as possible. I think that risking an injury sucks, but you can't prevent everything, and I think the staff has enough data and film on all of our players and probably already has a good idea who will and won't make the roster next year based off the season.

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

i meant theres no reason to play davis, he had a good year, no reason to risk injury in a non play-off year, get him in the weight room, dont need to play GV, he still has good trade value and would hate to have him injured right before the end of the season, id really like to see x, miller and aminu get heavy minutes, 30+

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But why ? X and miller probably won't ever be starters, so I'd rather evaluate them in limited minutes because that will be their role. Aminu probably should be a guy that comes of the bench as well.

i could see miller definetly developing into a starter one day

I can't.

Miller's game is built to be a three and D 7th or 8th man off the bench type. Every team needs one.

I'm not denying his value to a team, just saying he's not a starter in the league unless something goes terribly wrong for whatever team starts him.

This only matters if you honestly believe there is a "huge" drop off in talent after the first 5. I'd say the odds of that actually being true on this draft is nil. The ceiling aint high enough to begin with.

I want Alex Len

I like Len, i know a lot of people dont but I do, just not in the top 5, i wouldnt mind trading down at picking up len and giannis

len has great size, length, instincts, defense and offense, think he will be a very good player.

len and giannis along with rivers and davis would give us a huge, long team.

Doesn't matter, As Monty said "Our goal always is to win games" but at this point in the season it's as much about evaluating talent as anything. Guy's that don't normally get quality minutes will find themselves in positions to play key minutes, and it isn't necessarily a plan to lose. Everyone understands that if they lose they have a better chance at a top 3 pick, but i'd bet dollars to doughnuts that fans are the only ones thinking tank.

Sorry but anytime you get the chance to potentially eliminate the Lakers out of the playoffs you go full throttle.

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

I like Len, i know a lot of people dont but I do, just not in the top 5, i wouldnt mind trading down at picking up len and giannis

len has great size, length, instincts, defense and offense, think he will be a very good player.

len and giannis along with rivers and davis would give us a huge, long team.

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I was kidding. Absolutely hate the guy.

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Originally Posted by HornetGuru

I like Len, i know a lot of people dont but I do, just not in the top 5, i wouldnt mind trading down at picking up len and giannis

len has great size, length, instincts, defense and offense, think he will be a very good player.

len and giannis along with rivers and davis would give us a huge, long team.

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Who are you going to trade down with that allows you to get both? I do not see many scenarios that would fit the bill unless one or both of the players falls.

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Originally Posted by NOLa.

Sorry but anytime you get the chance to potentially eliminate the Lakers out of the playoffs you go full throttle.

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thats what i like to hear!!

Well, if it means anything the ESPN lotto machine is NOT a fan of us taking Bazz at all. Always either Dipo or Burke at 6-8.

In recent days when I have done the ESPN lotto it says the Pels take Smart if they get a top three pick, Porter with a top five pick, and Burke or Oladipo with a top eight pick (favoring Burke). That actually sounds about right to me, except I would probably slide Oladipo just ahead of Burke.

We need to lose this one.

From what I am learning about the top 10 players, there is not much differents between their level of skills.

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Originally Posted by PelsFan2313

We need to lose this one.

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No, we don't.

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Originally Posted by Eman5805

No, we don't.

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If we want a realistic chance of acquiring a top five pick, we do.

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Originally Posted by PelsFan2313

If we want a realistic chance of acquiring a top five pick, we do.

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Pick at 5 or pick at 7. There's no real difference unless there's one player in particular you're after.

All the same, the lotto balls will fall where they may. If we lost games that we "needed" to lose last year and were slotted with the 3rd best lotto odds instead of the 4th, someone else would've wound up with Anthony Davis.

Play hard, every game. Leave the rest up to fate/God/Doctor Who.

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Originally Posted by PelsFan2313

We need to lose this one.

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http://www.funny22.com/wp-content/up...012/05/644.jpg

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Originally Posted by Eman5805

Pick at 5 or pick at 7. There's no real difference unless there's one player in particular you're after.

All the same, the lotto balls will fall where they may. If we lost games that we "needed" to lose last year and were slotted with the 3rd best lotto odds instead of the 4th, someone else would've wound up with Anthony Davis.

Play hard, every game. Leave the rest up to fate/God/Doctor Who.

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I understand where you're coming from. But personally, there are six players in particular that I want. In all likelihood, those players will be selected in some order with picks #1-6 (H247 did a piece on this). That's why I'm so bent on passing Detroit for the fifth worst record.

Any player from a pool of McLemore, Noel, Smart, Shabazz, Porter, or Oladipo...yes, please.

Trey Burke

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Originally Posted by PelsFan2313

I understand where you're coming from. But personally, there are six players in particular that I want. In all likelihood, those players will be selected in some order with picks #1-6 (H247 did a piece on this). That's why I'm so bent on passing Detroit for the fifth worst record.

Any player from a pool of McLemore, Noel, Smart, Shabazz, Porter, or Oladipo...yes, please.

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same list for me but mine goes mclemore noel porter oladipo smart bazz

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Originally Posted by PelsFan2313

I understand where you're coming from. But personally, there are six players in particular that I want. In all likelihood, those players will be selected in some order with picks #1-6 (H247 did a piece on this). That's why I'm so bent on passing Detroit for the fifth worst record.

Any player from a pool of McLemore, Noel, Smart, Shabazz, Porter, or Oladipo...yes, please.

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Someone could always pull a Cleveland and take a guy like Dion Waiters a lot higher than we expect. Like if Glenn Robinson comes out and someone reaches a lil'.

It isn't set in stone who is going where. Hell, the draft order isn't even set yet, let alone the lottery.

Don't worry so much.

IT doesn't matter if we end up with 5,6, or 7. We will end up with a value pick. People are so concerned about positions when the prospects are all pretty close to each other in that range.

Also, Pel, you forgetting about Anthony Bennett? And, though I don't care for Zeller or Len, who is to say some other GM does too?

I hope WE don't, but that's another thing.

Trey Burke.. CJ Mcollum.. Jeff Whitey..Doug McDermott

Literally the only 4 guys in the draft that i truly like. Either pick Burke or trade back for 2 of the other 3.

i like mcollum, reminds me a little of curry and lillard