This one has the potential to get into the Gulf and needs to be watched.
http://www.hazardpredictor.com/tropi...STAV_track.jpg
http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropic...us_600x405.jpg
Printable View
This one has the potential to get into the Gulf and needs to be watched.
http://www.hazardpredictor.com/tropi...STAV_track.jpg
http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropic...us_600x405.jpg
Upgraded to Tropical Storm Gustav
Folks on Gulf Coast Weather site are speculating on this becoming a major storm threatening Gulf Coast within 7 days.
Definitely bears watching.
I hope the pumps are on!
Signed,
Gustav
Gotta watch this one...looks like a Gulf Coast strike somewhere as a hurricane--possibly a major hurricane.
if i lose everything again because of a stom named GUSTAV im going to be PO'ED. I hope for the best but expect the worse now once a storm makes into the gulf.
We've got plenty of time to watch....it could hit anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. It is highly unlikely that lightning would strike twice in the same spot with Gustav and Katrina, however, a bigger concern would be a possible evacuation of the city if the storm gets too close. Be ready for the inconvenience more than anything else.
For those of you living in the New Orleans area, is the city ready to withstand maybe a Cat 3 or greater storm that seems to be on track for Louisiana or Texas? Whats the chatter around the city about this storm?
check back in a few days
Last I heard they would block water from entering the canal's which hopefully will help minimize flooding.. The levee's I think are mostly ready for a 2 from what I've read in the papers. It's a travesty that we can't get better levee's for the city..
While I like the Gulf Coast Weather site, some of the regular posters over there go into panic mode way too fast based on long-term model forecasting that isn't accurate this far out (5 to 7 days +). You need to learn how to filter out the extremes and understand that most of the people over there are arm-chair meteorologists. You do have some of our current and former meteorologists who post over there, but some of the regular guys are a bit twitchy..... :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Slidell Hornet
Right, you can't panic on a seven-day projection. You get an general idea of what may happen, but you can't put too much stock into it. It's like the extended forecasts on the weather reports...for the most part, you only wanna look at the first few days...past that, it's only good at generalities...in terms of specifics, it's a crapshoot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NicosiaBuzz377
So what would the name get pissed? :confused:
Quote:
Originally Posted by roturn
BTW- Is this a creole blue background? :hihi:
Louisiana emergency preparedness officials met several times this morning to begin planning for possible evacuations if dangerous Hurricane Gustav approaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline this weekend or early next week.http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index....or_gustav.html
Possibly going the same track as the one earlier in the year that hit the Texas/Mexico coast.
I have no idea.... :hihi:Quote:
Originally Posted by roturn
Hey guys...here is another model that you guys can look at.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdlt...hour=Animation
GFDL wants to take it to the west of NOLA, but that doesn't help with the NE quad going over the city. Hopefully it keeps tracking/trending to the west.
It looks like we maybe playing that sport again
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fg0ar0wFYfM
Rumor has it, Mayor Mick is keeping a close eye as well. We all know who he is rooting for.
The NHC wants to hold to it's course that's further east than most models.
The other models keep trending west. Just have to keep an eye on this one.
The GFDL is the most trustworthy model issued. Right now, it shows Gustav making landfall on the Central Louisiana coast. Like Venture said, that would put the city on the worst part of the storm. Acccording to GFDL, it would make landfall in LA with winds of about 156 mph. That's the beginning of Cat. 5 status. Obviously, that's still very far out, so we have plently of time. Still, that doesn't mean to be lazy with this storm and start paying close attention a couple of days before landfall. We need to monitor this system as best as we possibly can. I don't want to start panic here, but we need to prepare for the worst. You need to start thinking about what you're going to do should Gus stay on its current path, which means that you should probably have a preliminary evac. plan by this weekend. Best of luck to y'all.
Yeah, I know this way ealry to predict, but with it going into the wide open gulf. The odds that we might get something are pretty high.
There is a "HIGH" that may protect the entire gluf coast and steer this thing down to Cancun, if you listened to Bob Breck.
Gustav's losing a bit right now - downgraded to a TS, but will probably restrengthen - but the NHC still insists on that track off our coast. I'm guessing that they're waiting to see what happens the next day or two before they move the 5 day track away from the central LA coast.
But they have not factored in the "High" yet. Too early to tell I guess, you predict down the middle and you can't go wrong for now. In other words "They don't know yet."
Never listen to what Bob Breck has to say. Remember the flack he caught about Katrina? He sucks fareal :bah:Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrace Fan
Is it just me or does this new track look more to the west, headed towards Lake Charles?
It looks like it's hooking more towards Texas, if it would hold it's current western course. Just over the past 6 or so hours Gustav has been moving west.
Here is a better link to the site I posted earlier...it provides access to everything they have from the menu.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
I think it is too early to say where its going, but the direct hit on Cancun doesn't seem likely...though it will come close.
Early this morning and everything looks just as ominous as yesterday.
The GFDL forecast is extremely depressing, putting Gus with 190 mph winds in the gulf and making landfall extremely close to NOLA with 160 mph winds.
The model forecast this morning:http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...l.html#a_topad
Carl Arredondo is going to have a live weather chat from 1-2 PM today. I strongly suggest that all those interested in Gustav try to get some info from Carl. The models are alomost all in agreement. It doesn't look good today.
With Gustav not making much progress right now and lingering aroung Haiti longer than expected, no one can rely too much on a 5-7 day forecast and forget the strength predictions since those are nowhere near reliable that far out.
About the only thing we know right now is that there will likely be a hurricane in the Gulf within a week, exactly where and how strong, who knows? But anytime there is a storm in the Gulf, we have to be ready.
The 11am EDT track has shifted eastward, Gustav still lingering near Haiti
looks like its going to move pretty quick once it hits the Gulf. Be Ready!
I am the meteorologist in my house.Ever since Bob Breck told the entire city that Georges was coming right at us and if it missed,it would miss to Texas,he hasnt been trusted around my house.
I have basically told everyone in my house to start getting anything that they would take with them together in one central location that way if we have to leave it isnt the clusterfrick that it normally is.
If this stays cat 3 or lower and hits the city to the EAST i am staying to take care of the house.If it ventures into strong cat 4 or decides to come in WEST of the city,Im getting the hell out of dodge.
Agreed. Keep an eye on it, but i wouldn't commit to any evacuation plan at this time.. It could go to Houston, or Pensacola, or places in between.. We'll know a lot more come Friday morning.Quote:
Originally Posted by say-what
Make your hotel reservations north of the city now if you don't have friends or family somewhere in the region to take you in.
Usually, I would say to wait to evacuate, but this storm looks like it's going to hit around Labor Day. Just check Hotels.com and you'll see that pretty much every reasonable hotel within about a 9-hour drive is booked solid. You need to take action NOW. You can cancel your reservations later. You need to start now.
Memphis still has some rooms but you better act now!
Latest Computer Model forecast:http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...807_model.html
That is the same model as the 10AM with the BAMM and the NAMM added.Either that or the models didnt change AT ALL.Quote:
Originally Posted by Who Dat033
Wow---the models are really starting to trend East big time. They may have this thing headed into Florida in the next day or so...be interested to see the 4:00PM NHC forecast and if they follow the model trends somewhat--they already have a little.
Thought I would also drop this...it is a link to StormTrack.org. A lot of very highly respected meteorologists, students, chasers, and other professionals on this site. The thread is the one dedicated to Gustav. Kind of a different look on the situation and some good discussion on the various models and forecast thoughts.
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17760
Did I hear right, Are there 2 more storms forming in the Atlantic?
Yea we've already got 2 rooms booked in Jackson... sheesh.
Invest 95L has been hanging around the last few days and there is a wave a few hundred miles off of Africa right now.Watch them,but defiantly be more concerned with Gustav for now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrace Fan
Still just hanging out between Haiti, Cuba and Jamaica. Big piece of energy just to the west of the storm. Wonder if it'll incorporate that energy?
Rumor has it, Pensacola and Mobile residents are booking hotel room here!(N.O.)?
Good back up plan, but that's all it is worth right now. The good news is that there are a lot of rooms in New Orleans. The most in the region, by far.
Needs to be watched close. We've made our evacuation plans in case it comes this way. It's a compact storm, and if it remains that way, Lafayette is out of harm's way on a direct NOLA hit, so that's where we are headed. If it heads more that way, but we feel the need to get out, we'll go east to Pensacola. We have family in both locations.
I just checked the sats and Gustav is having a rough go of it right now. Looking bad - battered by some shear and dry air. It's going to take some time to reorganize.